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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • mmikmmik Member Posts: 17
    I feel like I just missed getting the cottage at the 100 dollar mark... This is a bit disappointing. The lego shop where I live had several in stock, but I'm worried they're all gone after the holidays. I can't check until tomorrow, though.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Minecraft-Micro-World-21102/dp/B007PVHMCG/

    Interesting...

    Amazon is selling the first Minecraft set... for $40.12 with a list price of $49.99.

    Probably just a price engine error, but still interesting... and an odd price, Amazon does that, but why sell at $40.12 instead of $39.99?
  • LootefiskLootefisk Member Posts: 67
    edited December 2013
    To make $0.13 extra. Snark yes but a company the size of Amazon squeezing out an extra 13 cents per item makes a difference.

    Best guess. Cut the price by 19.75% list it as a 20% discount and make a few extra cents. If it didn't cross the $40 threshold no one will ever notice.

    I don't think its a price engine error.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/Brand-New-Sealed-Star-Wars-Lego-Obi-Wans-Jedi-Starfighter-10215-/121192572640

    Another good example of a set gone wrong...

    Yes, these were for sale for $70 for a long time... but this retired 20 months ago and is now selling for $105 shipped on eBay, new in box.

    After paying $15 shipping, plus $15 to eBay for fees (10% eBay +3% PayPal), this seller is left with $75.

    Whee! :) What a deal!
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    edited December 2013
    ^Call them up and they usually can hold for you 1 day or 2.
  • LegoMom1LegoMom1 Member Posts: 652
    ^This. Also if you have a VIP Card, let them know that too. Good luck.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited December 2013
    Wyplash Spinner
    Kruncha Spinner
    Cad Bane's Speeder
    SW Assassin Droid Battle Pack
    Obi Wan's Jedi Starfighter

    I get the point you're trying to make, there are dogs in the reselling world. But, the thing is, that is not news for these sets because they were risky dogs from the moment they were conceived. None of those vehicles are recognizable from anything less than a hardcore Star Wars fan and were never really popular by any measure. And the Ninjago spinners, they are just minor characters from season 1.

    Granted, a great piece variety/count is there in some, even more so when discounted to clearance levels, and some minifigs are interesting (I love me my assassin droids), but again, it all comes down to risk. There would have to have some insane discounting to offset the risk of investing a penny into these sets with the thought of reselling, because the chance of even one of them "hitting" is so very low.
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,964
    Vortex said:

    Apart from the discussed merits , consider the Constitution's MOC potential for example , with the Delorean this would make the perfect train set up to re enact the scene. I would also think the Bank and Sheriff set could be put to good use as well in addition to the train if we're talking Back To The Future.


    This is what sold me on the Constitution....the MOC potential. With the discount it became a no brainer, but it took me a while to realize that. When one considers it comes with track as well. It really made a great holiday train set for us.

    @EKSam, what did you use to motorize it? I want to investigate that for next Christmas.


    The allure for me on this set is that it was a train, with a track, that I managed to get for a good price. The western theme, though, I just do not see appealing to the kid market, and is the MOC ability enough for sales in the adult market? I'm not sure. It seems logical that due to it being a train, it will do the best out of TLR. (I do love the mine, though.)



  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    ^ and ^^ - Now down to $34.99!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/Brand-New-Sealed-Star-Wars-Lego-Obi-Wans-Jedi-Starfighter-10215-/121192572640

    Another good example of a set gone wrong...

    Yes, these were for sale for $70 for a long time... but this retired 20 months ago and is now selling for $105 shipped on eBay, new in box.

    After paying $15 shipping, plus $15 to eBay for fees (10% eBay +3% PayPal), this seller is left with $75.

    Whee! :) What a deal!

    Ouch! You had to bring that one up... Now why don't you give me a paper cut and pour lemon juice on it.

  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,964
    Also, if you are looking past sets, you get small sets and mod them. Target may still have the mini holiday train in the sale section, which can make a nice add to a scene. (I just picked up another one today at Target for 2.50....we use it as a kiddie train ride next to the carousel in the WVM.

    We also took TLR train and modified it to create a holiday train.
    Also, if you can still find the last series of minifigs, elves and gingerbread men make great additions. The Yeti is useful as well. The Grandma has a nice hair piece for Mrs. Claus.

    While the Cottage is the one you should try to find first, HH is an amazing set, so you will want to be sure you do pick that one up.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Vortex said:

    Apart from the discussed merits , consider the Constitution's MOC potential for example

    That's exactly what sold me on #79111...MOCs. There is so much potential with this set. In fact, the first thing I did was go to Bricklink and purchase a couple sets of "conversion" parts for each copy I own. I figure once I get around to selling one of the sets, I can advertise and sell the conversion parts with the original set so the purchaser can build either a green trim (original) or all-black engine and coal car.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,805
    edited December 2013

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Minecraft-Micro-World-21102/dp/B007PVHMCG/

    Interesting...

    Amazon is selling the first Minecraft set... for $40.12 with a list price of $49.99.

    Probably just a price engine error, but still interesting... and an odd price, Amazon does that, but why sell at $40.12 instead of $39.99?

    I dunno about that, but the link you provided shows the price at $34.99 right now. :-)
    Not sure why Amazon does this occasionally as I have seen this with City sets in the past
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ It was $40.12 at the time I posted it...

    Amazon changes prices like my kids change their minds... :)
    madforLEGO
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 112



    That's exactly what sold me on #79111...MOCs. There is so much potential with this set. In fact, the first thing I did was go to Bricklink and purchase a couple sets of "conversion" parts for each copy I own. I figure once I get around to selling one of the sets, I can advertise and sell the conversion parts with the original set so the purchaser can build either a green trim (original) or all-black engine and coal car.

    If someone out there has the talent, interest and time to create a #79111 "motorization kit" I think there is a ton of potential there. It would include all the power functions required, the extra bricks to modify the existing kits (either bricklinked or from Lego replacement parts) and instructions for modifying the standard set. I'd buy one, particularly because I'm not an experienced MOCer or buyer of individual pieces. There are a lot of people out there like me. I have a few set aside for resale, and would fully consider buying such kits and selling them with #79111 as combo packs.
  • thenosthenos Twin Cities, MNMember Posts: 423
    edited December 2013
    ^ I'm not an experienced MOCer either, but I motorized it just fine after some trial and error from one of the threads on here. Had to rebuild things a little bit, but it turned out great. But I hear you, it would have been better to just have a kit to do it.
  • adventure_aladventure_al Scotland Member Posts: 243
    I dont suppose there is an easy answer but how do you decide what stays and what goes?

    I'm a big castle fan and I'd like to invest more in it. I'm sitting on a good amount of the original Star Wars line which I got mainly as gifts in my very early teens.

    If I sell it? When I eventually tire of building all things medieval, will I regret letting it go? Am I better to keep hold of it and just bide my time.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Will you regret it? Maybe... but it isn't like LEGO will never make Castle ever again! :)

    We had much of the Toy Story and Cars sets built, finally took them all apart and put the parts in the brick buckets. Thought about trying to sell them, but frankly they aren't worth the trouble, made more sense to just give the parts to the kids to free build with.
  • PaperballparkPaperballpark UK / KLMember Posts: 3,804
    I think he means will he regret selling the original Star Wars line.

    I can't answer that tbh. Sorry! You'll probably get loads of replies from people though.
  • legofanfromleedslegofanfromleeds legoland...England Member Posts: 384
    Im thinking that if you can afford your castles without selling them then id tend to think to just forget about your star wars sets and put them back in the loft.. itll be a win win situation in a few years when the new films are released. .itll either get your taste buds going again or the new interest will value your sets far more.. just my opion of course and this is coming from an original trilogy lego fan..
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Just my opinion, but I have a hard time seeing the original 1999-2003 SW sets going up any further in value.

    In fact, I think just the reverse, their value is now on the decline. More and more of them are being rehashed (just waiting for you Cloud City!), the new designs are much better than the old ones, and the grays no longer match.

    Yes, there will be a few people who care and want the older sets, but their numbers are probably not growing, the supply of old sets isn't shrinking (the used supply anyway), so if you want to move on, sell them and don't look back.

    Or put them back in storage and don't worry about it.

    Do you need the money or the space?
    StuBoykylejohnson11pharmjod
  • StuBoyStuBoy New ZealandMember Posts: 623
    ^ Exactly what I was thinking. I'm that into Star Wars sets, I dabble in some OT stuff, but I don't know how much appeal some of the original sets have. There may be a handful of sets from this era that fetch a decent price, but for the most part they look outdated and the newer versions are much better (IMO).
  • intromissionintromission Member Posts: 197
    Hey folks, I've neglected to pick this one up when I've seen it at $49, hoping for a more significant discount, as I've been able to obtain all of the first wave sets for at least 50% off, sometimes more. It's by far my favorite, should I be sleeping on it much longer? The price seems to have gone up at a lot of retailers and I imagine the first wave will be on its way out.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    To me it seems that #79000, #79002 and #79010 are retiring while #79001, #79003 and #79004 are to stay for at least some more time. At least going by the 'retiring soon' labels on [email protected] and by the 2014 German consumer catalogue.

    So to sum it up sets tied to the first movie are retiring while those depicting scenes in the 2nd are staying. With #79003 being the exception. I think that is kind of the flagship set of the Hobbit series so will stay. It is in the 2014 German catalogue.
  • intromissionintromission Member Posts: 197
    Thanks! I thought that might be the case.
  • augenaugen Worcester, UKMember Posts: 317
    I am in a similar position and was pleased to see that it's in the UK spring catalogue. I have hardly seen it discounted here.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,771
    Remember #41999 selling out and then appearing in the next consumer catalogue?
  • drdavewatforddrdavewatford Hertfordshire, UKAdministrator Posts: 6,514
    Playing Russian Roulette with a set you really want isn't particularly sensible IMHO. Holding out for ever-bigger discounts is all very well if you can live with missing out, but given some of the decent discounts which have already come and gone on #79003 is it really worth missing out for the sake of a couple of extra bucks ?
    BumblepantslegomattLegoMom1icey117MasterBeefy
  • jockosjunglejockosjungle Member Posts: 701
    Got to agree, if you want a set that badly, just get it. I like the Lone Ranger but if I don't get them half price, I won't be that bothered. But I would have been a bit annoyed to miss Unexpected Gathering, fortunately got it half price
  • adventure_aladventure_al Scotland Member Posts: 243
    I've naboo fighter, naboo swamp. Hoth snow speeder, darth mauls sith fighter... Amongst other bits. Prob nothing irreplaceable but good point. Lego will do more castle but not nessecerily more ORiginal Star Wars
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,339
    @adventure_al- I can understand your concern regarding monetary value of the sets when considering selling versus keeping. I'll have to agree with LegoTexasFan and say that in terms of future value their price probably will stay constant and not increase dramatically. LEGO continues to create re-hashes (bleah) of these older sets, and all of the ones that you mentioned above:

    I've naboo fighter, naboo swamp. Hoth snow speeder, darth mauls sith fighter... Amongst other bits.

    These have all been re-hashed at least once... some of them more than once.

    If you've found your interest gravitating towards another theme, and have really lost interest in the SW theme, I'd challenge you to sell the original SW to fund your castle theme. It's impossible to predict the future, and if you'll actually be interested in SW again. I've always been a fan of selling off the old and funding the new (in terms of what you are now interested in).

    If you continue on your current train of thought, you'll always say "maybe I shouldn't sell this because it may go up in value". Before you know it your house is full of LEGO sets you don't really care about, and LEGO itself begins to lose its special sense. I can speak from experience.

    So I've always made my philosophy that if I want something new, I have to sell something old that is simply in storage or sitting on display gathering dust. It's worked well, and kept the excitement of LEGO alive. It's also a wonderful way to fund your LEGO hobby and purchase of new sets.

    Best of luck in whatever you may choose :o)
    mnbvcpharmjod
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    EKSam said:

    @Pitfall69 :-) I beg to differ, I found the Constitution very easy to motorize and that is surprising given its the very first train I motorized. :-) It looks awesome chugging away in the winter village. I see great potential in this set at sale prices.

    I guess I was just going by the few threads I have seen. If it were really easy, I would figure there would be no need to have a thread. How does it look? Does it illuminate? I guess that is what I meant.

  • ChompersChompers Member Posts: 658
    Not sure who's watching FB in the UK but cheapest starts @ £179.95 on eBay @ £166 on amazon didn't take long for that to start the rise
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Yea, it is starting to move up... :) We shall see...
  • cmrt1014cmrt1014 Member Posts: 396
    Just an FYI, the Westfield Topanga store had two stacks of this winter village set - full price.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Even though there is probably a gazillion still seating sealed around the world

    :D

  • iluvmyelementiluvmyelement Member Posts: 52
    It's a fabulous set to part out - so even if it stays under $250 for the sealed set, current part out value is between $300 and $350 (and based on my previous part out of the set the parts sell faster than almost any other set) and individual piece prices should climb in about 6-12 months so I'm content having a few extra in my closet.
  • joel4motionjoel4motion United KingdomMember Posts: 959
    All Monster Fighter sets except HH are showing as sold out on UK [email protected] Amazon haven't had the VC in stock for a while either so guessing it is done with.

    Anyone expecting decent returns on anything in the line? I can see VC doing OK but am unsure about the rest.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    You should avoid the Vampyre Hearse, the Werewolf, and the Mummy. I'm undecided about the Mad Scientist set. After VC, which is definitely the winner, I think the Ghost Train might do well, but the entire line might become a seasonal/Halloween thing, with shoppers showing little interest except around Halloween. It's also possible that this line might keep showing up at TRU; in a recent catalog, TRU claimed MF was their "exclusive". I'd go easy.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^Although Vampyre Castle might be the winner from the MF series, I think it's doubtful it would ever consistently sell for more than $180, the price of the Haunted House (just like others have previously stated). That is, until the HH is out of production, how ever many years that may be.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited December 2013
    juggles7 said:

    You should avoid the Vampyre Hearse, the Werewolf, and the Mummy. I'm undecided about the Mad Scientist set. After VC, which is definitely the winner, I think the Ghost Train might do well, but the entire line might become a seasonal/Halloween thing, with shoppers showing little interest except around Halloween. It's also possible that this line might keep showing up at TRU; in a recent catalog, TRU claimed MF was their "exclusive". I'd go easy.

    What this gentleman's advice is lacking is the essential concept of purchase price. If you bought each of the unadvised sets above at say $17, $10 and $4 respectively, prices which did occur around the horn, I think you might find yourself in a very good position indeed. Realize that even the most reviled resale set, the dreaded #7591, would turn you a tidy profit if you managed to pick some up at < $5 each.

    Beyond this, combine the three sets above as a lot, and you just might see that $31 hypothetical investment materialize into $50 next October. That - fees would realize you a sexy 37% return for a less than one year holding.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    just got 2014 january lego catalog. seems like only superheroes sets are #76011 man bat attack
    #76012 the riddler chase and
    #10937 Arkham Asylum

    and no new starwar sets in there...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,805
    I'm guessing you can probably BL most of them at this point. Not sure if any sets have EOL parts in them or not.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633

    ^ It was $40.12 at the time I posted it...

    Amazon changes prices like my kids change their minds... :)

    It is $40.11 now at Amazon.. Lets welcome the new competition ?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Yea, I noticed that and decided to not post, since it will just change again. :)

    Amazon is like a jack rabbit on speed when it comes to changing prices.

    I can't imagine the first Minecraft will be EOLed any time soon, it continues to sell in huge numbers.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited December 2013
    The original minecraft set should be around for at least another two years, if not more, most likely more.
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 626
    Chompers said:

    Not sure who's watching FB in the UK but cheapest starts @ £179.95 on eBay @ £166 on amazon didn't take long for that to start the rise

    Dont pay too much attention to current Amazon prices. after another week or so anyone can sell their sets on Amazon , at the moment it is still only sellers who met Christmas selling guides. I sold my spare yesterday and after fees made £30,(not much, but I'm just happy I didn't have to keep it in storage for another 2 years!)

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ This is something worth keeping in mind, one of the quirks of selling on Amazon, knowing when prices rise and fall based on their policies.

    Another is that anything sold on or after Nov 1st can be returned up until Jan 31st, for any reason. :)
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748

    All Monster Fighter sets except HH are showing as sold out on UK [email protected] Amazon haven't had the VC in stock for a while either so guessing it is done with.

    Anyone expecting decent returns on anything in the line? I can see VC doing OK but am unsure about the rest.

    I mostly invested in the VC, and expect it to hit £150 by christmas 2014. However this a depentant on stock from other primary sources such as Tesco.com which is delaying the rise for now.

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