Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

BTHodgeman

They shouldn't be selling that high on Amazon... 19 have been sold this month on BL, averaging just under $215 apiece...

LegoFanTexas

^ Just because something is listed on Amazon at a crazy price doesn't mean it is selling.

If you want to find out, list one for sale! :) Just make sure you can get one if you do (or have one).

Do also keep in mind (and I speak from experience), the higher above eBay the price on Amazon goes, the more return/refund requests you'll get. People of course don't figure out they overpaid until it arrives, then they get angry.

I've had more than one negative feedback on Amazon from a customer who didn't bother to research price first, and generally Amazon won't remove those.

Dougout

If people buy from resellers but don't like them then that is hypocritical. They most likely are just having buyer's remorse. Either way, whether someone is paying $400 or $250 for a set it is just great that kid get what they really want for Christmas, that is what matters most.

madforLEGO

Is the Architecture studio SELLING for 400, or are there just hopeful sellers hoping someone will buy it for that?

BTHodgeman

@LFT - that's what I meant. Not that someone shouldn't be selling them for that price, but that they probably aren't selling (many) at that price.

Bandit

LegoFanTexas said:

^ Just because something is listed on Amazon at a crazy price doesn't mean it is selling.

If you want to find out, list one for sale! :) Just make sure you can get one if you do (or have one).

Do also keep in mind (and I speak from experience), the higher above eBay the price on Amazon goes, the more return/refund requests you'll get. People of course don't figure out they overpaid until it arrives, then they get angry.

I've had more than one negative feedback on Amazon from a customer who didn't bother to research price first, and generally Amazon won't remove those.

The ones listed for $360 and $380 have indeed been selling, so yes, they're selling...

piratemania7

Does anyone have any ideas about kingdoms joust? With the chess set now being sold out the joust is the final hurrah of the bunch and I am wondering what everyone has for an opinion on it retiring and possibly what it might be worth in the secondary market especially since it technically is meant to be built with two sets put together?

chrisdojo

piratemania7 said:

Does anyone have any ideas about kingdoms joust? With the chess set now being sold out the joust is the final hurrah of the bunch and I am wondering what everyone has for an opinion on it retiring and possibly what it might be worth in the secondary market especially since it technically is meant to be built with two sets put together?

If MMV was doing better, I would give Joust a decent outlook. I'm staying away from this one though.

madforLEGO

chrisdojo said:

piratemania7 said:

Does anyone have any ideas about kingdoms joust? With the chess set now being sold out the joust is the final hurrah of the bunch and I am wondering what everyone has for an opinion on it retiring and possibly what it might be worth in the secondary market especially since it technically is meant to be built with two sets put together?

If MMV was doing better, I would give Joust a decent outlook. I'm staying away from this one though.

Bad example IMO.
Joust has not been out as long as MMV, and not really been on sale as much as MMV in its shelf life.

dougts

Joust is about to hit two years, having been released on Jan 1, 2012. It was 20% off on black Friday 2012, and maybe occasionally at amazon and other retailers over it's lifespan. But yes, not nearly as much as MMV.

If it were to retire in the next 6 months, it's long term prospects should be better than MMV, especially if bought on sale. Probably not a meteoric rise though

LegoFanTexas

http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Friends-Olivias-House-3315/dp/B005VPRF16/

Olivia's House is back at $59 on Amazon.

This is the second time they have restocked, my information is that this set is retiring, it has been out 2 years and it needs to go.

If it doesn't, then boo... I have a lot of these. :(

Anyone think this is staying? Going? Thoughts?

pharmjod

I don't have "lots". Just a couple extra. I can't help but think there will be a replacement of some sort, either DTC or otherwise. That said, it's a cool set. I will probably keep 2 to combine into a bigger house for my daughter when she gets old enough. I'd say if your info is its retiring, it probably is. I figured the first cafe would already be gone by now though too. If LEGO doesn't replace it immediate I can see it doing pretty well.

LegoFanTexas

^ First cafe? You mean #3061? That one is going, I'm 98% sure on that one...

They can and do change things last minute. As I've said before, TLG can do whatever it wants. :)

#41039 Sunshine Ranch is, I think, the replacement for Olivia's House. I've already pre-ordered mine for $10 off from Amazon (plus a free bear!)

You'd think they would always, always have a "doll house" out, just like police station, but they might still be figuring that one out.

Or they are tossing me a bone and leaving a 1 year gap, before coming out with Stephanie's Summer Home.

flyingpig

My bet is both Cafe and Olivia's House are staying, at least for a few more months. Hope I am right, sold off my stock over the past few days.

flyingpig

Olivia's House is the ONLY friends set in stock at walmart.com...

Also at Target. Though Cafe may be gone....

LegoFanTexas

^ Yea, that bothers me... It has gone out and restocked at Target twice, at Amazon twice, and Walmart at least once...

That is... odd for this time of year on a set like that... if it is staying for a third year, boo! :)

It is a great set however, if anyone needs one to build, $59 is a killer deal on that. Well, not as killer as it has been, but still pretty darn good. :)

LegoFanTexas

Just checked, Amazon has 143 left in stock, if it was a week ago they'd have been gone in a blink... tomorrow, Christmas Eve? Probably not... online sales are over for this season (more or less).

What does seem to have gone is Summer Riding Camp, a set that I should probably have gotten more of. Somehow that one flew under my own radar, when it probably shouldn't have.

flyingpig

Yeah, online sales ended this season effectively today at 1200 Pacific, when the amazon Christmas delivery window closed. Worst sales numbers for me in the past 30 days.

Ma1234

Now that the German consumer catalog is out, we can see what sets are going on for another year. Among the more notable ones:

Friends:

#3185 Summer Riding Camp
#3186 Emma's Horse Trailer
#3315 Olivia's House (this should surprise nobody. I fully expect this set to have a shelf live of at least five years, if not more)

City:

#4201 Loader and Tipper
#4203 Excavator Transport
#4204 The Mine
#4437 Police Pursuit
#4439 Heavy-Lift Helicopter

Technic:

#9398 4x4 Crawler

Star Wars:

#7965 Millennium Falcon

LegoFanTexas

None of those sets should continue, other than the last two...

The 4x4 Crawler is expected, that has another year. The Falcon? Shoot, that might have 3 more years in it, just like the X-Wing.

Or at least the X-Wing should, I haven't seen it restock anywhere yet, but I assume that's just Christmas. LEGO always has one of those out.

As for the rest, I wouldn't expect very many 4 digit sets to remain in 2014, they are all getting long in the tooth (other than the obvious like X-Wing)

Thanks for the post...

Ma1234

LegoFanTexas said:

None of those sets should continue, other than the last two...

Why shouldn't they? Especially Olivia's House. It's to Friends with the Death Star is to Star Wars. That set is going to be around for a long time.

The mine sets staying isn't too surprising, especially given that the City space sets also had a three-year life.

LegoFanTexas

No, it really isn't...

Olivia's House is just a made up house, there is only one Death Star...

They could easily do something like Stephanie's Summer House, about the same size, but different. A large number of people have already bought Olivia's House, none of them are going to buy a second one. But those people might buy another 700 part house for about the same price, if it was just a new design.

That is why the City Police and Fire stations are replaced every 2-3 years. It gives everyone something new to buy, even if it really is just the same thing over and over with another coat of paint.

And I don't say this as just a reseller. My daughter already has Olivia's House, it would be nice to have another house of similar size so that she can have Olivia come visit, and vice versa. Heartlake needs more than one house. What am I supposed to get her for her birthday without a new big set?

LegoFanTexas

Moving on from that...

Police Pursuit? Really? That is part of Forrest Police, why would it stay? Out of all of them, that makes the least sense.

The irony is that they got rid of the best Mining set, the Mining Truck. That is my son's favorite because he can dump lots of bricks into the back and drive them around (well, a lot for him anyway).

LegoFanTexas

Huh... you know, you win some and you lose some...

The Bat Cave is back... Both on [email protected] and on Amazon (and back to the proper price).

I guess we're getting a third year for that set...

The "win some" part? I sold all mine this year, I thought it might be early, but I figured some profit today vs. unknown profit Christmas 2014.

Sheesh...

LegoFanTexas

At the risk of hitting two many at once...

Why is #6862 back? (Superman vs. Power Armor)

That set is 2 years old, time for it to go! All of the other similar sets are long gone. Is that one really selling that well?

littlepuppi

Batcave is soldout in europe, I think its gone.

stevemack

I have 30 x #6857 Funhouses at £30 each, do you think that's enough :)

Didn't fancy any batcaves as I don't think it will go personally

Dad

^ I think that's too many @stevemack. Shoot me a pm if you want to offload some or do some trading. Seriously.

stevemack

Thanks for the offer but I'm happy to keep them tbh, I always get 20-30 of a set minimum and always wish I'd bought more. I have 60 mint unimogs at an average of £90, quite looking forward to that one climbing :)

jdylak

Thoughts on Friends sets? I couldn't give any as you have to go 50 miles to find them in a store (TRU). All the local Walmarts clearanced them out last year and never stocked them again as they didn't sell here at all. I still remember that cardboard set up they had in the main aisle and nothing ever being touched. They tried moving that up front for "impulse" sales and no bites. The guy said when the sets didn't even sell at clearance, they sent them to a different store.

cloaked7

And so we have the most difficult aspect of the reselling formula. How long will a set be out? 3 months? 6 months? 2 years? 2+ years. Will it be a zombie set or a Luke's Landspeeder? I have been burned many times thinking a set will be short lived, or have a typical shelf life. Only to see it linger and linger. And, see my potential profit shrink and shrink. And, it's not just a smaller profit margin. It's also needing to keep those sets longer than expected. Tying up space and money. LFT, I understand your dilemma.

doriansdad

It is quite easy to tell what is retiring. Check [email protected] and other retailers in europe and asia. For instance 6860 Batcave has been sold out across europe and asia for a long time now. The USA got one more small shipment but it is obviously done. Same thing happened with 10229. Amazon had them briefly instock yesterday and they were snapped up very quickly. Olivia's House is readily available across the globe at every retailer so it is obvious it will get at least one more year.

Basic rule of thumb is if it is available on [email protected] Australia/New Zealand it is not retiring. If it is sold out at [email protected] europe and asia and disappearing from USA retailer websites it is done for good. Savvy?

doriansdad

LegoFanTexas said:

The "win some" part? I sold all mine this year, I thought it might be early, but I figured some profit today vs. unknown profit Christmas 2014.

Sheesh...

Unfortunately I think you may be chalking that one up as a loss this time next year.

LegoManiacc

FYI, 6860 back in stock at Amazon for $68.19 in case anyone missed it

cloaked7

doriansdad said:

It is quite easy to tell what is retiring. Check [email protected] and other retailers in europe and asia. For instance 6860 Batcave has been sold out across europe and asia for a long time now. The USA got one more small shipment but it is obviously done. Same thing happened with 10229. Amazon had them briefly instock yesterday and they were snapped up very quickly. Olivia's House is readily available across the globe at every retailer so it is obvious it will get at least one more year.

Basic rule of thumb is if it is available on [email protected] Australia/New Zealand it is not retiring. If it is sold out at [email protected] europe and asia and disappearing from USA retailer websites it is done for good. Savvy?

That's neat, but not quite what I meant. How long will the VW Van be current? How much longer will the DS be current? Seeing signs that a set is retiring is one thing. Take the Architecture Studio as a current example. Would your method have shown its production numbers would be relatively low and would have a relatively short shelf life? (great signs that the set will resell very well, i.e. the zombie set) If so, your method is golden. I mean, to eventually see a set labeled 'Retiring Soon' on the LEGO site, or finding that it will retiring somewhat soon by other means does help, but not in a greatly helpful way to me. I want to buy certain sets at a great price when I can during BOGO's etc. I prefer to not pay RRP for a set when I eventually learn it may retire soon. I prefer to pick my winners much, much sooner. But, that's just me.

madforLEGO

stevemack said:

Thanks for the offer but I'm happy to keep them tbh, I always get 20-30 of a set minimum and always wish I'd bought more. I have 60 mint unimogs at an average of £90, quite looking forward to that one climbing :)

If you bought 60 then I'd imagine that others have as well. I would not expect that to climb that much, at least right away.

doriansdad

cloaked7 said:

That's neat, but not quite what I meant. How long will the VW Van be current? How much longer will the DS be current?

Nobody has that answer. By studying stock levels abroad you will now within a month or 2 when something is going to be retired. VW Van and DS will be around at least to the end of 2014 that much we do know. Once they start selling out overseas you will have a few months to stock up in the USA.

mathew

The problem I see with resellers on this forum (probably with other forums as well) is that you guys are very cliquish and unable to think beyond the popular opinion. I know in the past I threw out the Architecture Studio as a dark horse and was almost unanimously blown off. It's always the same sets: Modulars, UCS yada, yada. And I don't get the love for The Lone Ranger sets. Seriously. The movie made less than Prince of Persia at the theaters and we all know how well those sets have done in the aftermarket...

Billybrown

madforLEGO said:

stevemack said:

Thanks for the offer but I'm happy to keep them tbh, I always get 20-30 of a set minimum and always wish I'd bought more. I have 60 mint unimogs at an average of £90, quite looking forward to that one climbing :)

If you bought 60 then I'd imagine that others have as well. I would not expect that to climb that much, at least right away.

If your looking at 100-120% profit on cost price, which is generally what I target. Then at £90 cost its already a winner, its already going for 2 x that price.

samiam391

mathew said:

And I don't get the love for The Lone Ranger sets. Seriously. The movie made less than Prince of Persia at the theaters and we all know how well those sets have done in the aftermarket...

Prince of Persia is an Indian/Arabian theme, that is very uninteresting. It's hard to set the sets apart from the movies, in the sense of having a village, etc..

Lone Rangers is a western/cowboys/robbers theme, that is very interesting. It's incredibly easy to set apart from the movies themselves. Combining all the sets, you have enough to have robbers versus soldiers set in a western town.

Besides, one of the sets is a train... trains always sell, a western train (combining a boy's two favorite things in the world) will sell well. I do have a Constitution Train Chase currently sitting under my tree, and I'm giddy with excitement to open and build it tomorrow.

I'm not even much of a set re-seller (and don't have a single set besides the train tomorrow) and I can completely understand the love of the LR theme.

vitreolum

mathew said:

The problem I see with resellers on this forum (probably with other forums as well) is that you guys are very cliquish...

Or maybe everyone is keeping their not so obvious choices for themselves...? :))

Also, it's better to sell 10 trains in a month for 1.5x rrp than one architecture studio in 3 months for 3x rrp. The appeal of a set is a key point here. Something that sort of lacks in case of themes like architecture... they will surely do well in terms of return but that doesn't mean they will sell easy as well.

LegoFanTexas

doriansdad said:

It is quite easy to tell what is retiring. Check [email protected] and other retailers in europe and asia. For instance 6860 Batcave has been sold out across europe and asia for a long time now. The USA got one more small shipment but it is obviously done. Same thing happened with 10229. Amazon had them briefly instock yesterday and they were snapped up very quickly. Olivia's House is readily available across the globe at every retailer so it is obvious it will get at least one more year.

Basic rule of thumb is if it is available on [email protected] Australia/New Zealand it is not retiring. If it is sold out at [email protected] europe and asia and disappearing from USA retailer websites it is done for good. Savvy?

That is all fair and good, but how do you tell 6 months in advance. :)

It isn't hard to pickup 5 or 10 copies of a set in the last month it is out, but doing it in volume is the real trick.

I have over 100 Olivia's House, that isn't something I could pickup now if it was going out. Likewise with Batcave, if I wanted 100 of them now, or even last week, my options to obtain them were more or less zero.

LegoFanTexas

mathew said:

The problem I see with resellers on this forum (probably with other forums as well) is that you guys are very cliquish and unable to think beyond the popular opinion.

Ha! That is the first time in a long time I've been accused of THAT! :)

Reminds me of high school, and not in the good way. :(

dragonhawk

Sadly, it looks like Olivia's House is here to stay. It is already back at [email protected] Also, my TRUs seem to have several of these lingering on, even when the other Friends sets are wiped out.

I was betting on Architecture Studio to come back next year, but so far I am loosing the bet :(

gmpirate

stevemack said:

Thanks for the offer but I'm happy to keep them tbh, I always get 20-30 of a set minimum and always wish I'd bought more. I have 60 mint unimogs at an average of £90, quite looking forward to that one climbing :)

Technic yields good returns but generally they are slow moving sets. Unimogs seem like a no-brainer, but from what I understand, they have not been a good seller for that line. I know of one Lego Store that never received another shipment after their initial one. And they have been on sale for a while now and still on the shelves. I'll have them in my inventory, but it's certainly not a set I would want to tie up a lot of money in.

gmpirate

After Christmas I like to pick up sets for one year flips. Last year it was Dino. This year I can't think of anything to fill that void. LotR is a longer term flip, Friends are gone, Galaxy is this year's AC, City too new . . .

Ninjago might be ok at 50%, but it's already been discounted so much and will the 2014 season be a hit like before??

Super Heroes appears to be the only bet but those sets are mostly sold out already.

LR is mostly gone from shelves and only worth the risk at 50%.

I'll head out as usual, but I could see ending my journey early this year (which would actually be nice). Btw, anyone want to buy 50 Recycling Trucks?

LegoFanTexas

The Recycling Truck was a short term flip, to be sure... The price is down, yuck. :)

I would be happy, however, to buy them for what you likely paid for them. :)

stevemack

gmpirate i'm extremely happy with my unimog quantity at its price! In the UK its a good regular seller, it's also a licensed mercedes set!

Trenth

vitreolum said:

mathew said:

The problem I see with resellers on this forum (probably with other forums as well) is that you guys are very cliquish...

Or maybe everyone is keeping their not so obvious choices for themselves...? :))

Also, it's better to sell 10 trains in a month for 1.5x rrp than one architecture studio in 3 months for 3x rrp. The appeal of a set is a key point here. Something that sort of lacks in case of themes like architecture... they will surely do well in terms of return but that doesn't mean they will sell easy as well.

I have to say that I have never sold anything as fast as I sold my architecture studios. You wouldn't have to wait 3 months, more like half a day, but you are correct there is not one strategy that is the best and works for all.

I try to diversify and do a bit of both; some long term holds, a few quick flips, and most that fall in-between somewhere. I also am not picky about a certain theme. I would prefer to spread out my investments, because realistically everyone is going to make a bad investment now and again. I might not hit as many home runs, but at least I'll still be able to play the game.

flyingpig

Argh. I got an email saying my TRU order I placed on the 11th was just picked up. However I am now on vacation 5000 miles away from the store in question and have been for a week. Anyone with advice on dealing with this?