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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    vitreolum said:

    And when everyone thinks that - usually the opposite happens. I think too many people loaded up on these and that there are other sets that people dismissed that will do much better.

    If you check the cheapest price for it in Europe on BL, it's already EUR 69, that's about 2xRRP. On ebay UK it's selling between GBP 60-80. US price is a different matter though...
    European RRP was actually 50 EUR as far as I know.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    prevere said:

    ^I remember thinking that about the last Hogwarts Castle. Helms has two great things about it, A) unlikely to be done again, B) it's a castle.

    There are alot more 9474 stocked than 4842 ever was, a hell of alot more.

    http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=9474-1-&colorID=0&v=D&viewExclude=Y&cID=N

    $200 looks like a steep climb to make in 1 year. $160 shipped sounds realistic after 12 months to me. $200 xmas 2015.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    cloaked7 said:

    ^ Very interesting. I didn't know that Amazon would store your inventory for you. I guess that's why an item will say 'Sold by xxx, shipped by amazon'? I mean do they ship, package, etc. the set for you? You just own them?

    Also, I wonder how they keep everyone's inventory separate and accounted for. I'm very impressed.

    Yes, you either have to sticker them by putting labels over the barcodes. Or pay Amazon 20 cents an item to label for you. Or you can commingle your inventory with everyone else's, but I wouldn't do that on a dare.

    You have to ship your stuff in to amazon yourself.

    Search for FBA and you'll read a lot, both pros and cons.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Thanks for the info. Very interesting. Shouldn't be surprised, Amazon is on the bleeding edge of many things.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    That is odd that more people stocked up on #9474 to me, I would have thought that more people stocked up on #4842. Harry Potter seems more for kids to me and therefore more popular overall. I still say Helm's Deep will get to at least $180 by Christmas though.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Just further evidence that prices can fall...

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001USHRCK

    MMV, a set that seemed like a "sure thing" just a year ago...

    Seller is selling it for $128.99 + $5.20 shipping on Amazon right now, for a new in box copy.

    After 15% fees and probably $15 to actually ship it, he/she will net about $99 for the set.

    Whee! :)

    I bought a ton of those a year ago when they were going out for 10% off RRP at $90, holding it for a year to net $9 in profit, where do I sign up?

    That set reached a peak of about $160 or so, but has been falling the past few weeks. It just isn't selling in any volume, there are far more copies than there is demand for it.

    It may well approach RRP at the current pace, another two weeks at the rate it has been dropping. It might stop of course, but I suspect this one was out too long and there is just too much new.

    Heck, it is "Castle" from the LAST Castle line, with Kingdoms in-between the two! :)

    Thoughts?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    BTW, the above seller has 23 in stock... at the current pace of sales, it may well take until the end of the year to move them all...
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,841
    A nice Gondor set at about £100 should keep the future price of Helm's Deep down for a while.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    @CCC are you just speculating or is there any substantial rumor that there will be a Gondor set?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,841
    Neither. I'm stating that if there is one, it will keep the price for Helm's Deep down.
  • abenamouabenamou Member Posts: 12
    You're missing the point of the low price :)

    He's trying to capture the people who need it by xmas. Sure you can pay $5 for shipping, but if you want it for xmas you'll pay $80 - and it costs him maybe 1/4 of that to get it to you "overnight".

    Watch the price after xmas...

    Just further evidence that prices can fall...

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001USHRCK

    MMV, a set that seemed like a "sure thing" just a year ago...

    Seller is selling it for $128.99 + $5.20 shipping on Amazon right now, for a new in box copy.

    After 15% fees and probably $15 to actually ship it, he/she will net about $99 for the set.

    Whee! :)

    I bought a ton of those a year ago when they were going out for 10% off RRP at $90, holding it for a year to net $9 in profit, where do I sign up?

    That set reached a peak of about $160 or so, but has been falling the past few weeks. It just isn't selling in any volume, there are far more copies than there is demand for it.

    It may well approach RRP at the current pace, another two weeks at the rate it has been dropping. It might stop of course, but I suspect this one was out too long and there is just too much new.

    Heck, it is "Castle" from the LAST Castle line, with Kingdoms in-between the two! :)

    Thoughts?

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    BTW, the above seller has 23 in stock... at the current pace of sales, it may well take until the end of the year to move them all...

    10193 was available for just over 4 years. Expecting the "normal" aftermarket performance from a 4 year set as a 2 year set is asking for disappointment. The issue IMO is that anyone who wanted this set bought it at retail. It will take time for new collectors who missed this set to enter the market to lift demand. I have a feeling you will be asking the same question about FB this time next year, and 2015 lol.

  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I have 4 #10193 left. Bought them at $70 when the brand stores were blowing them out. It's a great set that will be iconic as the years roll on. I wouldn't mind if I got stuck with mine, but I think having a set like this that is affordable as the years roll on might not push it to 3x retail, but I think it will be a steady seller and slowly increase as new collectors look to add an affordable piece to their collection.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Has anyone been in their brand stores in the past few days? Wondering if there will be any WV Cottages left to go on sale on Thursday. Also wondering if WV Market will be discounted like in the past.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Well I think it is now confirmed for me that once a set is EOL and amazon "finds" new stock then it is simply their algorithm that is pricing them. Amazon's pricing of 6860 is simply tracking the lowest marketplace seller price.

    It might pay to keep an eye on those sets that Target is way off on pricing as well.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    wagnerml2 said:

    Has anyone been in their brand stores in the past few days? Wondering if there will be any WV Cottages left to go on sale on Thursday. Also wondering if WV Market will be discounted like in the past.

    No discounts allowed on these 2 sets in the USA.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    abenamou said:

    You're missing the point of the low price :)

    He's trying to capture the people who need it by xmas. Sure you can pay $5 for shipping, but if you want it for xmas you'll pay $80 - and it costs him maybe 1/4 of that to get it to you "overnight".

    Watch the price after xmas...

    While that is true, there are FBA sellers at $144 and those come with free 2 day shipping (upgraded to 1 day shipping for $4 more).

    So for $150, you can have it overnight.

    The only issue is that seller at $144.99 will net about $115 for it after all is said and done, not counting that it probably has been in storage for a year, at a cost of about $5 for that, dropping the net to $110.

    Like I said, blah! Look at all the sellers stacked up at $149, add a few to your cart and change the qty to 99 for each, see how many copies are sitting there at $150.

    Blah!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    10193 was available for just over 4 years. Expecting the "normal" aftermarket performance from a 4 year set as a 2 year set is asking for disappointment.

    Yea, well, I was kinda hoping... :)

    A year or two ago when I was stocking up on this (I started 2 years ago), I didn't really know that part, then when it was clear it was going last year, I bought a bunch for $90 or less, figuring that it would double in a year.

    Ha! How wrong I was...

    I no longer believe it will double by next year, but I could be wrong there too.

    I have a feeling you will be asking the same question about FB this time next year, and 2015 lol.

    Yes, I don't think FB is going anywhere, I see thousands of copies on the market, all below $300. That will be a slow climb. :(

    Boo! :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    No discounts allowed on these 2 sets in the USA.

    No, but nothing says that TLG can't allow their own brand stores to discount them post Christmas.

    Perhaps they have a clause in their "no discounts rule" that we don't yet know about that says that from Dec 26 to Jan 31, retailers can discount exclusives to clear out after Christmas inventory, then back to regular price Feb 1st.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    We can kiss goodbye to VW Camper and Tower Bridge for producing 100% returns after 1 year as well. Too bad.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376

    wagnerml2 said:

    Has anyone been in their brand stores in the past few days? Wondering if there will be any WV Cottages left to go on sale on Thursday. Also wondering if WV Market will be discounted like in the past.

    No discounts allowed on these 2 sets in the USA.
    In their brand stores I'm sure they can do whatever they want whenever they want. There are stacks of WV Market in my Brand store. I'm sure they are not going to stock them heading into spring if they remain consistant with past practice.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    wagnerml2 said:

    Has anyone been in their brand stores in the past few days? Wondering if there will be any WV Cottages left to go on sale on Thursday. Also wondering if WV Market will be discounted like in the past.

    I think you're going to see something creative like extra VIP points for the winter sets they want to discount after Xmas.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    wagnerml2 said:

    In their brand stores I'm sure they can do whatever they want whenever they want. There are stacks of WV Market in my Brand store. I'm sure they are not going to stock them heading into spring if they remain consistant with past practice.

    You are wrong sir. They follow rules from corporate and corporate says no discounts on these 2 sets. If they don't sell they will be returned.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    You are wrong sir. They follow rules from corporate and corporate says no discounts on these 2 sets. If they don't sell they will be returned.

    I imagine what he meant was, "corporate can change the rules if they want to".
    wagnerml2
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    We can kiss goodbye to VW Camper and Tower Bridge for producing 100% returns after 1 year as well. Too bad.

    Tower Bridge has been out too long now, hasn't it?

    Had it retired this past summer when SOH came out, I think it would have done much better.

    It doesn't help that Taj Mahal has gone up so much either. :)
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376

    You are wrong sir. They follow rules from corporate and corporate says no discounts on these 2 sets. If they don't sell they will be returned.

    I imagine what he meant was, "corporate can change the rules if they want to".
    Yes. This. A simple memo started it, a simple memo can amend it. Not saying it will happen, but to make a blanket statement that it can't or won't happen is short sighted.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    If Castle does not receive another wave in 2014 MMV could see a nice boost. The aftermarket is obviously saturated right now, but a year from now things may be very different. The folks who chose or needed to unload ASAP will have done so while those who have a selling point and are sticking to it will still have a stash. The set is simply legendary: four years on the shelf gets it into a lot of hands and gets a lot of people talking about it. $200 this year would have been nice but there's always next year.
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    I think i managed to snag the very last Helms Deep off Amazon a few hours ago . However it did say more coming in on the 27th . Dunno about that but just cannot tell you guys how relieved i am to secure my second .

    This was a must for the double Deep treatment im planning to execute . Also with this buy i can end the year with all the must buys in my list atleast those that were on the verge of being extinct . Merrry Christmas indeed
    !! : )
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    This sight , The sigh of relief ...poof
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Along the same lines as MMV is Luke's Landspeeder for me. I picked it early to do well after it EOL'd. But, then it was still current and still current. Then, WM blew out the remaining sets for 50% off, I think. I'm selling a few at pretty much break even, just to get rid of them. Maybe they'll do better next year. At this rate I'll still have them then. :-)
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    No talk about Robie here I see... not the most sought after, but given the limited availability and short shelf life, this one might be a winner.
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Robie House? It is indeed going, but it has been on sale forever and a year ago could be had for 50% off from B&N. Granted, those copies might have been sold by this point.

    It might be too big compared to everything else in the line.

    I have a few, but not going deep on it.

    I think the White House will do well, SOH will do well, Big Ben will do well, that sort of thing.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    cloaked7 said:

    Along the same lines as MMV is Luke's Landspeeder for me. I picked it early to do well after it EOL'd. But, then it was still current and still current. Then, WM blew out the remaining sets for 50% off, I think. I'm selling a few at pretty much break even, just to get rid of them. Maybe they'll do better next year. At this rate I'll still have them then. :-)

    Because I paid an average of $15 a copy, I've done well with Luke's Landspeeder, but my copies are all sold now.

    I think this will get another release in a year or so, I don't think it will ever get a chance to go that high before a new one comes out.
    FollowsClosely
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    abenamou said:

    You're missing the point of the low price :)

    He's trying to capture the people who need it by xmas. Sure you can pay $5 for shipping, but if you want it for xmas you'll pay $80 - and it costs him maybe 1/4 of that to get it to you "overnight".

    Watch the price after xmas...

    While that is true, there are FBA sellers at $144 and those come with free 2 day shipping (upgraded to 1 day shipping for $4 more).

    So for $150, you can have it overnight.

    The only issue is that seller at $144.99 will net about $115 for it after all is said and done, not counting that it probably has been in storage for a year, at a cost of about $5 for that, dropping the net to $110.

    Like I said, blah! Look at all the sellers stacked up at $149, add a few to your cart and change the qty to 99 for each, see how many copies are sitting there at $150.

    Blah!
    Makes me glad that I dumped all of mine for over $150 over the last few months.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Is the VW Camper done, or back for 2014?
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Don't know how many re-releases we'll get now with the upcoming SW movies and series. Even if rehashed, they will be from those movies, making these sought after by fans of the org trilogy.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    ^Not that it means much, but VW Camper is not on the "retiring soon" list.

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/catalog/productListing.jsp?_requestid=501477

    EDIT: Looks like the list can't be linked. You can click the "retiring soon" option, lower right.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,175
    edited December 2013
    nkx1 said:

    ^Not that it means much, but VW Camper is not on the "retiring soon" list.

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/catalog/productListing.jsp?_requestid=501477

    EDIT: Looks like the list can't be linked. You can click the "retiring soon" option, lower right.

    Just because it is not on the retiring soon list, does not mean it is not retiring soon.
    Many sets last year ran out with no such ragging.
    As for the Winter village sets, I REALLY hope the market gets discounted to move them out of stock as I would not mind a few others.
    I know that the Cottages are gone from the store I normally go to, but that does not stop them from taking excess stock from other stores to sell off.

    Also Vampyre Hearses were only 25 so that was nice as I did not have any yet.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    wagnerml2 said:


    Yes. This. A simple memo started it, a simple memo can amend it. Not saying it will happen, but to make a blanket statement that it can't or won't happen is short sighted.

    I am saying it won't happen this year. Could it happen 5 years down the track? Sure it could.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    prevere said:

    Is the VW Camper done, or back for 2014?

    Back for at least 1 more year according to my sources. A good guess would be it will EOL after the introduction of the Mini Cooper. Another guess is they will sell them side by side for a few years.

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129


    You are wrong sir. They follow rules from corporate and corporate says no discounts on these 2 sets. If they don't sell they will be returned.

    There is a difference between allowing discounts (coupons, AFOL days, etc) and putting an item on sale. It has yet to be seen whether TLG will put items on the "no discount" list on sale for business reasons (May 5th, after Christmas, etc). Time will tell

  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 88
    edited December 2013
    ^^How can they slap a "retiring soon" label on it and sell it for a few more years.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    VW Camper is not in the retiring soon list.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    OK this is what I have heard regarding the no disocunt list and it goes beyond the memo. Items on that list are not allowed to be sold for less than RRP by any authorised retailer in the USA. If a set goes EOL on that list then retailers including LBR with stock may return those sets or continue to sell them for at least RRP. Those returned sets will then either be offered to a retailer as an exclusive or liquidated through other channels (or even destroyed). It is up to you if you believe it or not. Good luck!
  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 88
    Hmm, I could have sworn that the camper had a retiring soon tag on it when I was browsing LEGO's website a week ago. Must be my eyes playing tricks on me
  • Tevans333Tevans333 Member Posts: 152

    prevere said:

    Is the VW Camper done, or back for 2014?

    Back for at least 1 more year according to my sources. A good guess would be it will EOL after the introduction of the Mini Cooper. Another guess is they will sell them side by side for a few years.

    What is this mini cooper set you speak of?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Funny how we scoffed at the "retiring soon" label when it first showed, yet now we look for it as a confirmation of a set's deadline.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129

    OK this is what I have heard regarding the no disocunt list and it goes beyond the memo. Items on that list are not allowed to be sold for less than RRP by any authorised retailer in the USA. If a set goes EOL on that list then retailers including LBR with stock may return those sets or continue to sell them for at least RRP. Those returned sets will then either be offered to a retailer as an exclusive or liquidated through other channels (or even destroyed). It is up to you if you believe it or not. Good luck!

    Thank you. This is very interesting information that I have not previously seen nor heard, and it answers many of the remaining unknowns about the exclusive policy changes.

    Didn't I read around here that one iof the older exclusives was recently being advertised as a retailer exclusives? Maybe 10211?
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    ^I think another post on here said it was a TRU exclusive.
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310

    Just further evidence that prices can fall...

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001USHRCK

    MMV, a set that seemed like a "sure thing" just a year ago...

    Ugh, I thought about buying this set so many times in the past, like it a lot but I was never "I must have it!". Now I am back waffling over it.

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