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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    The only reason retailers won't get into this would be moving back and forth and cost associated with this. For gods sake they still use ups and fedex though they have stores in every corner. All they could so is hire someone to personally deliver for crying out loud.

    UPS is cheaper than that most of the time.

    Keep in mind that what you pay for UPS has nothing to do with what Walmart pays UPS. Walmart's rate is probably lower than you might imagine.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    Watch out LFT, Amazon is now after your secondary market pie.

    Target did this a week or two ago on something else, but not by this much...

    I said then (and I've said months ago), the major retailers could crush reselling due to their size and scale by simply holding back a few thousand copies of everything and selling for over RRP.

    If they had a thousand batcaves and marked them up to $99.99, it might well take awhile to sell, but the profit margins would be impressive if they originally purchased them for $35 (half of RRP).

    Curious as to others thoughts about retailers doing this themselves... thoughts?
    If Amazon started doing this, I think it would be fantastic. Amazon always puts the items that it's selling in the buy box. If it starts holding back inventory and marking the price of sets up post-EOL, that is going to establish the baseline market price for those sets on the secondary market. As soon as Amazon runs out of inventory (which it eventually will in every instance), the price that it had set will be the market price for the set. That price could, of course, fall, but I think that would be unlikely to happen. As a result, whoever got the buy box after Amazon could, at a minimum, price their inventory at the same level as Amazon. In many instances, this practice would likely prevent post-EOL sets from falling below MSRP or, at the very least, limit the amount that the price falls.


  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    ^That cuts into small reseller margins pretty heavily and means they essentially are unable to move inventory as long as Amazon has them in stock.

    Market demand is what determines an EOL sets price, its all what people are willing to pay, it has nothing to do with what Amazon or anyone pegs the price at. If its a dog of a set no one will buy it and Amazon would always have stock in your example.
    Until they got tired of holding them and firesaled those sets thus damaging the EOL price nearly permanently.

    Not sure how anyone who wants to sell some EOL sets would think that is fantastic.
    FollowsCloselyLegoFanTexasjasor
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,031
    If anyone big has a chance to jump in quick and do well it is Amazon. They kind of already do with the Fulfilled by Amazon method. There are some risks, but with proper counsel I don't see why they would not take the plunge. Actually, they have better sales data that we have access to, and it would not take much... ..nah I better stop before Amazon gets any more ideas.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    Amazon already does this with their warehouse deals for EOL sets, where they typically undercut by a bit the high markup that 3rd party sellers may have. I'm assuming it's a similar situation -- it's marked as EOL in their system, they found a bit of overstock, and are listing it at a competitive price. I see this as an anomaly, and not a sign of things to come.
    FollowsCloselythornie
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,115
    But Warehouse deals usually are a bit distressed no?
    I scoff at the idea of Amazon getting into this. They are not a reseller other than they are a retailer.
    A couple of items go up in price and instead of assuming it is some price bot issue or some other error, people are jumping off of building proclaiming that Amazon must be getting into reselling.
    Never mind Amazon, like anyone else, would run out of stock. This talk about 'well they have tons of space', well they do, but it is really better served selling stuff they can get and move not try to horde Why? How about storage costs and also potential damage to warehouses by fires, tornados, etc. I doubt a company is going to try to horde stock to sell at a greater price when the retail was x, as that is likely what they would get back from insurers if something should occur to their stocks. I just do not see it. Amazon, regardless of space, is it the business to make money quickly, not horde stocks past their time to make a few extra bucks.

    IMO All of this is rampant speculation that is doing nothing but generating more rampant speculation.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    Is it possible they monitor the third party sellers that load their sets into the system, waiting for the day that amazon sells out?? Example: If third party sellers load 50 Fire Brigades at $199 this summer, Amazon knows that that is the expected post EOL price. They can also monitor which sets sold the best, quickly, and from what market. A few days ago I didn't think that brick and mortar could get into the re-seller game, but the more I think about it, the more scared I get. They have the following information that we don't:

    1.) EOL dates
    2.) Historic sales data (geographically, daily, and by household).
    3.) Third party seller data.
    4.) The ability to buy at wholesale.
    5.) The ability to offer TLG a kickback on EOL items.

    The only downside for them is locking up inventory dollars.

    I don't know that Amazon is interested in the long term reselling (1+ yrs), but I'm starting to believe that they definitely are recognizing the "immediate pop" from an EOL set.

    Is a raised MSRP the new EOL "tell"?

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited December 2013
    Sounds like Amazon may need a LEGO expert to make the right LEGO picks. :-)

    Few retired LEGO sets double in value after a year or two. I can see Amazon storing millions of $$ of random LEGOS for two years and having to discount a lot of them, because they aren't in any more demand after 2 years than they were when they were current.
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    Lots of conspiracy theories here. Guys, cmon get a grip. @madforLEGO nailed it. This is just one of those occurrences where Amazon had the last remaining stock, and decided to price it based on supply and demand. They aren't "hoarding" EOL'd sets. That would make absolutely zero sense for a company like amazon.
    FollowsCloselyvitreolumxeeeejdoriansdadEKSammadforLEGOBrickDancer
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    Perhaps it's conspiracy theories, but it's also good business. I'm sure amazon sees a flood of activity on certain sets, once something goes EOL on lego.com. I've never once thought that they might be getting into long term reselling, but they certainly could boost prices short term on an EOL. It might not be worth the trouble to resell immediately for us (because of fees, competition, margin), but Amazon won't scoff at a quick $20 extra. Or maybe Lego is helping them with it too, who knows. Or maybe it's nothing. But it's interesting, on this otherwise slow day!!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I scoff at the idea of Amazon getting into this. They are not a reseller other than they are a retailer.

    Uhh, that is what a retailer is, a reseller of someone else's goods. :)

    A couple of items go up in price and instead of assuming it is some price bot issue or some other error, people are jumping off of building proclaiming that Amazon must be getting into reselling.

    No one is jumping off any buildings proclaiming anything, other than this specific situation and how odd it is.

    Amazon has many price bots, they change prices, sometimes by the minute... But with all those price bots, this one stands out.

    An error? Probably... But it is a heck of a big one...

    This talk about 'well they have tons of space', well they do, but it is really better served selling stuff they can get and move not try to horde Why? How about storage costs and also potential damage to warehouses by fires, tornados, etc.

    Amazon's storage costs are pretty darn low. They rent out space at a retail rate of 45 cents per cubic foot per month, but their true cost is lower than that.

    Amazon's risk from a fire/tornado/etc. is high for everything they carry. How about the thousands of big screen TVs in their warehouse, fire isn't a risk for those?

    I doubt a company is going to try to horde stock to sell at a greater price when the retail was x, as that is likely what they would get back from insurers if something should occur to their stocks. I just do not see it.

    Uhh, I hate to tell you, but there are many companies that do this, and bigger than myself... There are a few LEGO resellers in the US that do $10+ million in sales, I know the owners of two of them, I'm sure there are others I don't know.

    I don't do $10 million in sales, but I do more than your average hobby seller.

    So to say that a company isn't going to horde stock to sell at a higher price is clearly false, exhibit A is right in front of you. :)

    Amazon, regardless of space, is it the business to make money quickly, not horde stocks past their time to make a few extra bucks.

    Yea, but that's the problem...

    Amazon ISN'T making any money, they are doing $60+ Billion in revenue with nothing to show for it, other than market share. They didn't make a dime last year.

    Perhaps a new plan isn't such a bad idea?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    edited December 2013
    Change of topics...

    Harry Potter... some of these sets have surprised me...

    #4841 - Hogwarts Express, a set that was widely available everywhere for $80, sometimes less... Is now selling for more than Diagon Alley, an exclusive that retailed for $150.

    #10217 - Diagon Alley, this set hasn't reached 2x RRP, in fact it is fighting to hold 50% over RRP.

    If you want the latter, forget Bricklink right now, take a look at the fighting over at Amazon:

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Harry-Potter-Diagon-Alley/dp/B0048EKMMK/

    Amazon isn't always more than Bricklink. Right now on Bricklink this set is $240 + shipping. On Amazon? $237 including free shipping (2 day if you have Prime).

    Nuts...

    If you missed Diagon Alley last year, $237 delivered for a $150 exclusive with 2,000+ parts that has been retired for a year... ain't half bad...
  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 514
    Ummm...Amazon's cumulative Net Income for the past three years is $1.8B (that's billions: $1,800,000,000). Last year was a $39M loss...Earnings are expected to be neg. this year, with a rebound next year due in part to capital improvments and revenue growth.

    Amazon is to the internet what Walmart was to mass retail. Inventory turn is the key for them. No way do they get into any form of reselling. Why on earth were they discounting dozens of sets at deep discounts a few weeks ago (and not just "dogs" either) if they plan to get into the resale business? I can appreciate the technological innovation Amazon has brought to the marketplace, but I have a really hard time believeing that they have developed any sembelence of an algorithm that can predict, with any long term meaningful accuracy, the future price of a toy. Too many variables to do this
    cloaked7
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341

    Ummm...Amazon's cumulative Net Income for the past three years is $1.8B (that's billions: $1,800,000,000). Last year was a $39M loss...Earnings are expected to be neg. this year, with a rebound next year due in part to capital improvments and revenue growth.

    Amazon is to the internet what Walmart was to mass retail. Inventory turn is the key for them. No way do they get into any form of reselling. Why on earth were they discounting dozens of sets at deep discounts a few weeks ago (and not just "dogs" either) if they plan to get into the resale business? I can appreciate the technological innovation Amazon has brought to the marketplace, but I have a really hard time believeing that they have developed any sembelence of an algorithm that can predict, with any long term meaningful accuracy, the future price of a toy. Too many variables to do this

    that's what the machines are good for churning out data and massaging for variables.. AI or something of that sort... :)

    if anyone can do that then its amazon simply because
    1. they have cumulative/aggregate and individual data to tell them what sets sold for what after EOL
    2. they have data for which sets did well after EOL or before

    basically for them its not too much work since their bots are already running price variations. all then need is little bit of extrapolation and few more variables.

    what i am trying to say is, if any of the retailers wanted to do this and get it done then it will be amazon since they have the least additional cost and they have all the pieces in place.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,909
    ^^ Yeah DA is a real puzzler, I got one as it was going out the door thinking flipping it a year or two later would keep my addiction funded but at the current price I will probably just build it and see about integrating it into the city I am aiming to build.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Yep, at the current price those sellers on Amazon are netting less than 10 cents a part.

    Why bother? I have a few of them and was planning on selling them all, but I might open a few for the parts at this point.

    Hogwarts Castle, on the other hand.... :) Has done very well...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    10217 needs another year or 2 to reach a respectable price. I am holding mine back.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Ummm...Amazon's cumulative Net Income for the past three years is $1.8B (that's billions: $1,800,000,000). Last year was a $39M loss...Earnings are expected to be neg. this year, with a rebound next year due in part to capital improvments and revenue growth.

    Which sounds really impressive, until you consider that Amazon also did about $130 Billion in sales in those 3 years.

    So their profit margin is less than 2% across those 3 years.

    That is horrible, terrible, rotten... Much worse than even Walmart's low margin...

    If you take Amazon across the past 18 years and add up all its profits, losses, capital investments, etc... the whole business has been a complete waste of capital...

    I continue to be amazed at the gambling on Wall Street, here is a company that does tons of sales, is not long term profitable, and yet hold a crazy high market cap.

    My point is that Amazon has to try something new if the old ideas aren't working. Clearly books weren't the future, so they moved into selling everything else. They added the Kindle and Prime Videos to create new sources of income and revenue, they are doing a number of other things to try and grow, but they keep spending all their profits.

    At some point, it would be nice to make a buck. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Amazon just got Helm's Deep back in stock. Full Retail price, but I thought this one was supposed to be gone.

    Inventory says they have over a thousand in stock. If so, ouch, that will be here for awhile then.

    Interesting...

    5 days ago Amazon had over a thousand Helm's Deep in stock, at full RRP to boot...

    Today they have 293 left... that is a pretty decent pace for a 2 year old set at full price...

    Any takers for if they last until Christmas?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited December 2013

    ... I have a really hard time believeing that they have developed any sembelence of an algorithm that can predict, with any long term meaningful accuracy, the future price of a toy. Too many variables to do this

    that's what the machines are good for churning out data and massaging for variables.. AI or something of that sort... :)

    if anyone can do that then its amazon simply because
    1. they have cumulative/aggregate and individual data to tell them what sets sold for what after EOL
    2. they have data for which sets did well after EOL or before

    basically for them its not too much work since their bots are already running price variations. all then need is little bit of extrapolation and few more variables.

    what i am trying to say is, if any of the retailers wanted to do this and get it done then it will be amazon since they have the least additional cost and they have all the pieces in place.
    I'm with wrangler6915 on this one. I don't see Amazon's software developers being about to develop an application that can simply churn through sales numbers and prices in order to predict what the future demand of a set will be and what price a buyer will be willing to pay after it has been retired for 2 years. Plus, there are unknowns. A key one being, how long will a set be out? That makes a big difference, but is just one piece of the puzzle. I suppose some sets would be obvious, like the Winter Village sets. But, what sets Technic set A aside from Technic set B? So often it is an emotional appeal or some such. Computers don't think like people. I mean, it's more than just numbers.

  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    ^That cuts into small reseller margins pretty heavily and means they essentially are unable to move inventory as long as Amazon has them in stock.

    Market demand is what determines an EOL sets price, its all what people are willing to pay, it has nothing to do with what Amazon or anyone pegs the price at. If its a dog of a set no one will buy it and Amazon would always have stock in your example.
    Until they got tired of holding them and firesaled those sets thus damaging the EOL price nearly permanently.

    Not sure how anyone who wants to sell some EOL sets would think that is fantastic.

    Sure, in the theoretical world of a perfectly efficient market, demand is the only factor that would drive the price of a set on the secondary market. However, in the real world, if Amazon held back a large quantity of sets and marked them up past MSRP after the set retired, that would help set the price on the secondary market because that's what people would have to pay if they wanted that set from Amazon. If Amazon marked it up to 50x MSRP or something ridiculous like that, no one would buy it, but that's not the scenario we're talking about.

    Generally, when a set retires, the price on the secondary market gets set in accordance with the lowest price for which the set was generally available before retirement. So, if a set is widely clearanced for 50% at the point of retirement, the post-EOL price generally starts somewhere just north of that price as the quick flippers who bought it at 50% off try to turn their inventory over and make a quick gain. Then, over time, the price climbs as the number of sets available decreases. There are a number of factors that impact the pricing dynamics of any given set. For example, Ambush Attack 5882 wasn't widely available during last year's clearance sales so it's price rose fairly rapidly. In contrast, Sith Nightspeeder #9857 was widely available on clearance and its price rose fairly slowly.

    If Amazon holds a quantity of sets back and prices them at 30% over MSRP, that is going to be the price that people will have to pay in order to buy that set through Amazon. Even if third-party sellers undercut Amazon, Amazon will still control the buy box and that will control the price that most uninformed consumers will pay in order to buy that set through Amazon. Once Amazon sells out, price competition between featured merchants might drive the price down, but that competition will start at a price point well above MSRP, which adds a very different dynamic into the market.

    I think that it's fantastic because I realize that Amazon has the ability to drive the market like few other sellers do.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    ^^I also think it's highly unlikely Amazon is entering the post-EOL reselling business. However, if they did, they would probably be smart enough to obtain EOL dates from Lego (if Lego were amenable to it). I'm unsure if this would constitute a legal issue some sort.

    PS: This is all very hypothetical obviously, but it's fun to speculate.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    ^^ Yeah DA is a real puzzler, I got one as it was going out the door thinking flipping it a year or two later would keep my addiction funded but at the current price I will probably just build it and see about integrating it into the city I am aiming to build.

    IMHO, DA was too much of a "sure thing" to end up being a "sure thing." Same thing with MMV.
    FollowsClosely
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    ^Probably right about that. I sold all my DA's many months ago for about $240 shipped. Pretty good, considering I pretty much drove to my local Lego store, bought them on sale for $120 and sold them a few weeks later.

    I also had a bunch of HP trains that I sold almost two years ago for $150 or less. I really should have held onto those!
    FollowsClosely
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    None of my DAs or ISs are going out this year. I don't have many anyway so I want to stretch them out. It's also my attempt to compensate for all those 4842 and 4195 I stupidly unloaded for squat last year.

    Olivia's House and Summer Riding Camp may be done. Those will be interesting to watch. Legendary or forgettable...?
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242

    Amazon just got Helm's Deep back in stock. Full Retail price, but I thought this one was supposed to be gone.

    Inventory says they have over a thousand in stock. If so, ouch, that will be here for awhile then.

    Interesting...

    5 days ago Amazon had over a thousand Helm's Deep in stock, at full RRP to boot...

    Today they have 293 left... that is a pretty decent pace for a 2 year old set at full price...

    Any takers for if they last until Christmas?

    I'll bet they sell out before Christmas. Its a great set that has largely disappeared from retail (Unless you count TRU at 160+$) and weren't they are 800 some just a few days back?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    It's also my attempt to compensate for all those 4842 and 4195 I stupidly unloaded for squat last year.

    I hear you. I unloaded a boatload of 10199 for $120 and 10194 for $200 xmas 2012. I left $100 per set on the table. Still have my stash of 4842 and 10217 for the long haul.

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129

    None of my DAs or ISs are going out this year. I don't have many anyway so I want to stretch them out. It's also my attempt to compensate for all those 4842 and 4195 I stupidly unloaded for squat last year.

    Olivia's House and Summer Riding Camp may be done. Those will be interesting to watch. Legendary or forgettable...?

    Good question. summer riding camp is pretty similar in nature to the new horse camp set, so that doesn't look great for it right now. Olivia's House could do well, but one has to think that there will always be a "house" set currently for sale in the Friend's line - it's like a police station - they are always going to have one on sale. Will there be enough aftermarket in these types of sets that people will feel compelled to overpay for them later, like Creator houses, or will they just say "nah, the new one is good". long-term reselling viability of the Friend's line is very much in question to me right now. The only thing I personally would put much stock in is the more unique unlikely to be re-hashed sets. Thus far that seems like the Treehouse, the Dolphin Cruiser, and maybe the Pool and High School. Maybe some of the $10 sets, if the logistics of small set reselling appeal to you. All the "shops" are pretty much going to be churned out endlessly. Time will tell on all of this eventually of course.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,115

    I scoff at the idea of Amazon getting into this. They are not a reseller other than they are a retailer.

    Uhh, that is what a retailer is, a reseller of someone else's goods. :)
    No, IMO a 'retailer' is a seller of goods that are currently made by a manufacturer, and once stock runs out it runs out, they do not increase prices for stock that runs out at the manufacturer. A 'reseller' is a guy or other company trying to make money off of a set that is out of production for a profit greater than RRP. At least that is how I see the difference here, I'm sure many disagree but that is another topic we can also spend 3 pages debating I guess. For this purpose I refer to this as a key for the rest.

    This talk about 'well they have tons of space', well they do, but it is really better served selling stuff they can get and move not try to horde Why? How about storage costs and also potential damage to warehouses by fires, tornados, etc.

    Amazon's storage costs are pretty darn low. They rent out space at a retail rate of 45 cents per cubic foot per month, but their true cost is lower than that.

    Amazon's risk from a fire/tornado/etc. is high for everything they carry. How about the thousands of big screen TVs in their warehouse, fire isn't a risk for those?
    Yeah but they are not going to be hording TVs to sell after the manufacturer sells out of them. If you are hording to gain profit on EOL sets, in many insurance circles after market prices (ie eBay, bricklink etc) do not count, only retail prices. I doubt Amazon would like to have to go through all of this for something that may make money, as others have noted. They are gambling like the rest of resellers then, but on a vastly larger scale.

    I doubt a company is going to try to horde stock to sell at a greater price when the retail was x, as that is likely what they would get back from insurers if something should occur to their stocks. I just do not see it.

    Uhh, I hate to tell you, but there are many companies that do this, and bigger than myself... There are a few LEGO resellers in the US that do $10+ million in sales, I know the owners of two of them, I'm sure there are others I don't know.

    I don't do $10 million in sales, but I do more than your average hobby seller.

    So to say that a company isn't going to horde stock to sell at a higher price is clearly false, exhibit A is right in front of you. :)
    That is again semantics on a part, or a different interpretation, IMO it is retailer vs an outside 3rd party that is buying from the retailer to sell after the fact. As Amazon is a 'retailer' I do not see them doing that. Especially if they have other 3rd parties on their site that are doing it and have to pay Amazon basically for listing the item. Causing Amazon to make money and not have to buy any vast amounts of stock to then horde and sell later. They already make money of the backs of others for this.

    As for Helms Deep I guess, according to some theories here, they should be bumped up to about $200 by now, right?
  • adventure_aladventure_al Scotland Member Posts: 243
    You guys are looking into this way too much. I believe Amazon had dynamic pricing (to an extent) as there has been multiple times I've viewed products I was saving up for or added to wish list only to see price increase. It's as simple as they know how many hits an item has and what's in demand and up price accordingly. The conspiracy theories they are actively trying to get the best of the reseller market are way too far fetched. That's small fish too them
    Lootefisk
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Helms Deep at $200? We just need to check Amazon's algorithm right? :-) Once created it will be a virtual crystal ball on LEGO futures.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Helms Deep at $200? We just need to check Amazon's algorithm right? :-) Once created it will be a virtual crystal ball on LEGO futures.
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    Put this all into perspective: Amazon will do in excess of $80B in sales this year.... Lego will do $4.XXB.

    I'd be very very interested in seeing actual numbers, but even if Amazon did 10% of all Lego's sales worldwide, that would be $400M. (I don't even think this is likely. The only retailer likely doing 10% of Lego's total sales is Walmart.)

    Using that number, Lego as an entire category is less than .5% of Amazon's total sales. The retired sets would be a ridiculously small subset of that .5% even. It doesn't make any sense that Amazon would go after such a small piece of the pie. They're not worried about the .005% that is the Lego resale market. At this stage, Amazon's sole focus is on growing their market share.

    Amazon could introduce a new product or service that would easily outperform any potential sales they'd made from storing and selling old sets.

    They're not trying to become a 'reseller.' They simply use dynamic pricing algorithms that somehow have adjusted the price of that set to $99.95. Coincidentally, $99.95 is the *same* price that others are selling that set for in the Amazon marketplace... Amazon sells it for the same price, slaps on Prime 2-day shipping, and they have a value add. Why do they need to sell it for any less?

    While Amazon does have lots of warehouse space, they also turn their inventory on average 8.5 times a year. That results in excellent cash flow, which is the only thing even remotely keeping their stock that high.
    nkx1jcb193BrickDancerEKSam
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    For weeks my TRU had 3 haggard HDs at $130. Now there's one at $150. Right above the dozens of Moria sets for $100.

    @dougts Good points. I thought the new Ranch looked more like the Stables set and would thus put a wet blanket on it's potential, but I guess there is some overlap with the Camp set. I will not confess how many $13 Tree Houses I passed on this summer. D'oh!
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    #3315 Olivia's House is out of stock on the European [email protected] sites but has an expected shipping date of late December. Might indicate that they'll produce more and keep it on the market for some more time?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    edited December 2013
    I think Olivia's House will go through 2014. I don't see its replacement in the Friends 2014 lineup to date. Next fall, Lego will have that ready to go - my guess is a $150 "Barbie Mansion" house.

    That said, the new Disney Princesses' line is going to steal Friends' thunder. Dare I say that Lego moves away from Friends, once they can't keep the Princess sets in stock and demand soars?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    I don't see it. I think there is plenty of room for both mini doll lineups and that both will continue to be strong sellers. Lego can go almost anything in the friends theme whereas they are much more restricted in the princess line
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0048EKMMK/

    Diagon Alley down to $227 on Amazon...
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    edited December 2013
    Still wondering when I'll get my amazon batcave, but it's looking like I'll get something. Looking around, I see more sets amazon is doing this on now. Very interesting.

    Perhaps these are customer returns that they are selling? They would use the repricing algorithm from the warehouse deals or something similar.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448

    While Amazon does have lots of warehouse space, they also turn their inventory on average 8.5 times a year. That results in excellent cash flow, which is the only thing even remotely keeping their stock that high.

    A company like Amazon doesn't maintain a high stock price just on cash flow. Sure, it's a great attribute, but many factors are taken into consideration. Market share, liquidity, closely hitting their quarterly numbers (whatever they may be, Wall Street hates surprises, whether good or bad) One thing that Amazon has that Wall Street absolutely loves is growth. The more, and faster, a company is expanding the higher the stock price goes. It isn't just that one aspect, but it's a big consideration. That was a big reason Starbucks did so well for so long. And, the same for Chipotle right now.

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    ^ Not so fast on the Constitution Train because...

    TEMP PRICE CUT
    Reg: Regular price $129.99 - Save $25.00 (19%)

    See? You're saving $25, it says it right there, it's a bargain I tell you, a bargain!
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^^ Yikes. So, the VW Camper is going to be $200 before you know it!
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Target has been doing that for a while now.
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Target has been doing that for a while now. Not really new.
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,977

    ^^ Yeah DA is a real puzzler, I got one as it was going out the door thinking flipping it a year or two later would keep my addiction funded but at the current price I will probably just build it and see about integrating it into the city I am aiming to build.

    If you are a Harry Potter fan that missed out, or a kid that adores Harry Potter, then what are the iconic sets that you are going to want??
    When one looks at it that way Hogwarts Castle and Hogwarts Express are no brainers when compared to Diagon Alley.

    Depending upon who one is buying for also impacts sales. If the sales are from parent's buying for their kids, then sets like the Burrow and Hagrid's hut could do even better than a set like Diagon Alley.
    Also, if sales are mainly from parents, then they will probably only invest in a set or two, so Diagon Alley is not at the top of their list.

    If the sets are being sold to completionists or AFOLs, then I think Diagon Alley moves towards the top of the list.

  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Diagon alley is a better set but has worse recognition for Christmas shoppers then hogwarts castle. Burrow is largely driven by minifigs.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Wow...

    I haven't looked at Burrow in awhile, I sold my last one a year ago, when they passed $100 I sold them all and never looked back...
  • adventure_aladventure_al Scotland Member Posts: 243
    Hi could anyone tell me if LOTR council of Elrond is current or likely to be retired? I picked one up at a good price.

    How does city stuff hold up? I managed to get the garbage truck too
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,977
    Right. Minfigs really can make a diff as well. My girls wanted the train after the castle, not because they desperately wanted the train, but because they wanted Luna.

    Hagrid's hut was the first one we bought, because my daughter bought it was birthday money. It was the cheapest one where she could get the three main minifigs.
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