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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    edited December 2013
    Are you guys unloading FBs in this Christmas season or will wait until it reaches better price point? I just sold two copies of FB at $220 on ebay yesterday. I'm wondering if I should wait after Christmas or unload more in this time of season. If you wait then what is your target price?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    edited December 2013
    ^I only have a couple and will keep for a few years. However, I think the price will stay at $200-$225 for a very long time.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    My FBs are on hold for a few more years as well. I will probably be selling GE and PS before I get to them lol.
    FollowsClosely
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    It is a train, it comes with track, it is the poor man's Emerald Night, and unlike the Toy Story train, it looks "adult enough".

    This of course is void if TLG comes out with another cool train remotely like it before then.

    You mean like the cool steam train they are working on for the Winter Village?

    J/k.....but maybe not :)
    prevere
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    Lots of heat on Grand Emporium the last few days.....
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    edited December 2013
    jcb193 said:

    Lots of heat on Grand Emporium the last few days.....

    Yeah I think it is in it's 11th hour, but I think it will hold on for at least the first half of next year. All speculation of course. I mentioned on another thread that TRU now advertises it with the "Our Exclusive" badge. So, I'm theorizing that it will get a limited stay at TRU only for awhile the same way Monster Fighters has.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    edited December 2013

    It is a train, it comes with track, it is the poor man's Emerald Night, and unlike the Toy Story train, it looks "adult enough".

    This of course is void if TLG comes out with another cool train remotely like it before then.

    You mean like the cool steam train they are working on for the Winter Village?

    J/k.....but maybe not :)
    That's a great thought. I think a train is a lock for that series sometime in the next 2-3 years. If they can do a Toy Story, TLR and MF train, then they gotta pull the strings for WV, right?
  • ShouldavilleShouldaville Member Posts: 51
    Regarding WVC, my local store has a dozen on the floor with "more in back". I see a nice sale coming next week.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    Do you guys not count the Holiday Train #10173 as the right train for WV? Looks spot on and would technically be the first WV set before it was an official theme. Sold mine last season for just under $400, but I might have sold it early by looking at prices now :phew:
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,108
    edited December 2013

    I think #79111 will do very well, $150 by next summer, it may be approaching $200 by next Christmas, on eBay anyway...

    It is a train, it comes with track, it is the poor man's Emerald Night, and unlike the Toy Story train, it looks "adult enough".

    This of course is void if TLG comes out with another cool train remotely like it before then.

    I would be surprised to see the train hit $150 by next year, only because the sheer number of sales and discounts made for this set alone.
    You do make the interesting point about being a poor mans EN locomotive, but are people going to pay 150 for one locomotive and tender? Not sure. I know that EN can have the same argument, but the EN is vastly more detailed and larger than this loco. People would be buying #79111 for just the loco and tender, which are not really that big or detailed IMO.

    How many of you have picked up the silver mine shootout box?

    Personally, it feels like a lot is in the box, even at RRP, at the $45 or so it has been on sale for, it strikes me as a bargain.

    Maybe not for massive resale, but a nice set regardless.

    I think it is a neat set if you need mountain type pieces and in earth colors. Otherwise I do not see it really holding its own in terms of its retail price. Like you say, the key is if you bought them for 45 or under. I got mine for under 45. Probably one to watch for clearance at retail stores (that still have TLR on shelves anyway) for parts and whatnot
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    Holiday Train is almost 10 years old. "Technically" it wasn't a part of the WV series, and neither was Emerald Night, the "Polar Express" train. If you mix the two together, and update passenger cars on the HT, add about 10 elves, that could be something spectacular.
    pharmjodFollowsCloselyLegoFanTexas
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,108
    I have a 10173 set that will be set up around my winter village sets once I have room for a Christmas tree (preferably in a house) :-)
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I have 2 holiday trains. One is built and around the tree and the other is sealed, although the box sustained damage in shipping. Perhaps letting the sealed one go at this point might be a wise idea. I always kept it because I felt there was probably very few of them out there.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I still have mine sealed as well. Paid $250 for it last year and was going to put it around the tree. Then prices went crazy so now it is in storage never to see the light of day. Lego collecting is awesome!
  • klatu003klatu003 Hobbiton, Shire, Middle EarthMember Posts: 724
    ^Silver mine is an excellent build. It has lots of play features (how cool is it to blow up the wall with the dynamite stick?) I picked up a second one on sale for parts. Too bad the movie was lackluster and the kids don't seem to be wowed by western sets without a media driver.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    @prevere which Polar Express train are you referring to, the Harry Potter one?

    I tried the Emerald Night with WV, but it didn't look right as it was quite serious looking in comparison.

    @doriansdad you got a smashing deal then for a sealed one. Since I must have sold my extra Bricklinked HT around the same time for 50% more than you paid. Wonder if it will ever crack that heavenly $1k mark for a sealed one...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,108
    I have a sealed #10173 still. I bought 3 off the shelf when new, and forgot I had the one still sealed.
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    Silver Mine really surprised me, didnt think much of it until I actually had the box show up in the mail. Very hefty, lots of parts. Will look to pick up as many as I can for 40%+ discount. Good parts pack for landscape.

    I have a feeling its not on many peoples radar as it was the last still available for heavy discount on Amazon, far longer than any of the other TLR sets. (In fact it still is...)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    You mean like the cool steam train they are working on for the Winter Village?

    J/k.....but maybe not :)

    A new holiday train? They would only sell like a million of those! :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,108

    Silver Mine really surprised me, didnt think much of it until I actually had the box show up in the mail. Very hefty, lots of parts. Will look to pick up as many as I can for 40%+ discount. Good parts pack for landscape.

    I have a feeling its not on many peoples radar as it was the last still available for heavy discount on Amazon, far longer than any of the other TLR sets. (In fact it still is...)

    Its good but not like it was when it was 42.99 at Amazon. It can go lower, at least I hope it does.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    edited December 2013

    @prevere which Polar Express train are you referring to, the Harry Potter one?

    I tried the Emerald Night with WV, but it didn't look right as it was quite serious looking in comparison.

    @doriansdad you got a smashing deal then for a sealed one. Since I must have sold my extra Bricklinked HT around the same time for 50% more than you paid. Wonder if it will ever crack that heavenly $1k mark for a sealed one...

    My comment is that the Emerald Night was TLG's answer for a playable model of the Polar Express.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Yes, but EN doesn't really fit with the WV series as well as could be...

    We badly need an update to the holiday train. Come on TLG, take our money! :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    ^That's true. It doesn't have enough children with snowballs.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    #10235 sold out at [email protected] europe (without be discounted)!
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654

    Do you guys not count the Holiday Train #10173 as the right train for WV? Looks spot on and would technically be the first WV set before it was an official theme. Sold mine last season for just under $400, but I might have sold it early by looking at prices now :phew:

    Wow, I bought one last year for about $275. Perfect train for the village.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    #6860 @ Amazon.com for $78.94 - Ships from and sold by Amazon.com

    This is a fairly new one on an expensive set like this... Amazon sometimes goes over RRP on their own stock on small little sets, like a $9.99 set for $11.99, but I can't recall an over $50 set being marked up over retail.

    This isn't a huge markup, but $78.94 is indeed over retail.

    Since Amazon changes their prices like a teenage girl changes her mind, I've taken a screen shot and attached it.

    Thoughts?

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Super-Heroes-Batcave-6860/dp/B005VPRF8O/
    6860.jpg 395.2K
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Only a handful of sets on amazon. Limit 2. Very odd. Wonder if they will ship, no ship date given.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I'm somewhat tempted... but I wonder if the max price of this set will be limited as long as AA is out. After all, for more than $150, why not just buy that?

    Yea, it isn't the same thing, but rather like the Monster Vampire Castle, as long as HH is out, what is the max that is likely to get to?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    If this were RRP or less, I'd probably have bought 2 already, but for over? Bleah...

    Not very interesting... wish I had bought more back when they were everywhere for $50. :)
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Compared to the vampire castle, batcave has some unique minifigs, and those will be a big part of the price. Bane pretty much doubles the value of the bat tank, could be the same here in some time.
  • MathBuilderMathBuilder Member Posts: 150
    ^Right now it reads:
    Price: $99.95 & FREE Shipping. Details
    Only 20 left in stock.
    Ships from and sold by Amazon.com.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Holy crap, they just raised the price, you're right, Amazon is selling this itself for $30 over RRP.

    Yikes!

    Has anyone ever seen that before?
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    Amazon is probably the only major retailer that had this #6860 in stock at this point.

    Maybe we are seeing some true colors here. This is what you will get from your customer friendly, very competitive Amazon when there is nobody left to match.
  • LootefiskLootefisk Member Posts: 67

    If this were RRP or less, I'd probably have bought 2 already, but for over? Bleah...

    Not very interesting... wish I had bought more back when they were everywhere for $50. :)

    Check Target I've seen at least ten of these on the shelves in the last week.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448

    Holy crap, they just raised the price, you're right, Amazon is selling this itself for $30 over RRP.

    Yikes!

    Has anyone ever seen that before?

    To your point. Never on something this expensive. Both dollar wise, and percentage wise, that is a hefty markup.

    I'll add, I learned long ago to NOT assume Amazon has the lowest price on items. They generally do, but not always.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,108
    Yeah, wondering if someone hacked Amazon and is playing with prices OR their system is all wonky for some reason
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited December 2013
    I am guessing for discontinued items their algorithm simply goes off what other sellers are listing them for. The RRP has probably been scrubbed.
    binaryeyeLootefisk
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    #4204 is drying up, only 18 on Amazon, gone everywhere else.
  • weevinweevin Member Posts: 34
    ^ TRU and TRU Ebay still have #4204 for MSRP with spend $100, save $25, so effectively $75.
  • spicemindspicemind Member Posts: 17
    Noticed that Toys R Us (Ebay) has #6857 in stock for $39.99. With the $25 off $100, you can pick up 3 for right around $100. Not as great as the BOGO50, but not too shabby...
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633

    Holy crap, they just raised the price, you're right, Amazon is selling this itself for $30 over RRP.

    Yikes!

    Has anyone ever seen that before?

    Watch out LFT, Amazon is now after your secondary market pie.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    edited December 2013

    I am guessing for discontinued items their algorithm simply goes off what other sellers are listing them for. The RRP has probably been scrubbed.

    It normally never has done that before... the RRP is always there (even if suppressed), but it can be raised by either Amazon, or third party sellers with a high enough ASIN authority to input something new on the product detail page...

    That is just a massive markup for Amazon, I'd expect it from TRU, but not Amazon. Boo! :(

    EDIT: I just checked the back end, RRP is still set to $69.99, so that isn't it. Amazon is indeed selling this for $30 over the RRP set in their system.

    Boo! :(
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Watch out LFT, Amazon is now after your secondary market pie.

    Target did this a week or two ago on something else, but not by this much...

    I said then (and I've said months ago), the major retailers could crush reselling due to their size and scale by simply holding back a few thousand copies of everything and selling for over RRP.

    If they had a thousand batcaves and marked them up to $99.99, it might well take awhile to sell, but the profit margins would be impressive if they originally purchased them for $35 (half of RRP).

    Curious as to others thoughts about retailers doing this themselves... thoughts?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,027
    Big box stores are designed to move products, not store them. but that problem could be easily resolved. The more difficult issue would be shelf space. The Lego isle is already larger that any other toy.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Yes, but warehouse space in the middle of nowhere is fairly cheap...

    I'm not suggesting that Target and Walmart would keep such sets on their retail shelves, but how hard would it be to store them at their fulfillment centers?
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    Amazon can very easily get into this market and they might be experimenting with it. Since amazon has warehouses everywhere and with their volume and pricing they can kill reseller market anytime. They must have the data from the marketplace to figure out how much Legos moves. All they need to do is take over let's say 20%of the market which would be added profit for them without doing much work figure out the high demand item hold them and sell them later.

    Target and Walmart can very well do this or are already doing it with their online sale with different pricing from stores. This allows them to recall and/or reallocate inventory. So in short they are moving in that direction slowly. In few years the only discount we will see would be on stinker sets. It seems to me that Walmart may be running away from lego. Or they really had huge inventory and wanted to thin it.

    I am pretty sure they would not get into parting out or the part business. That's way too much work and they would have hard time getting someone for what they pay to do that :)
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    The only reason retailers won't get into this would be moving back and forth and cost associated with this. For gods sake they still use ups and fedex though they have stores in every corner. All they could so is hire someone to personally deliver for crying out loud.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    Maybe as part of their no discounting exclusives deal they've arranged with TLG to be told of retiring sets and given the opportunity to buy up EOL stock at preffered rates. Probably got the idea from reading posts here.... !-)
    sidersdd
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    It's not just Lego that Amazon is jacking up the price on. I purchased this:
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00CUZZX82/ref=oh_details_o00_s00_i02?ie=UTF8&psc=1

    a few weeks back for $17 which I believe is retail price. Now Amazon has it for $23.69. So it doesn't always pay to wait for the best deals especially this time of year.
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