Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

prevere

Re-releases prevent it gaining ground. Now, the Forest one might be different because of its uniqueness. It's a "sell right before xmas if you can" set.

dragonhawk

margot said:

Question for the experts here. What service do you use to ship your #41999s? I told @Rancorbait I would sell him one at cost and I need to figure out a shipping cost for him so he can decide if he wants it.

@margot Try to avoid Parcel Post in December. It is cheap but very slow and prone to problems.

doriansdad

dougts said:

^ You are right of course, but it's two sides of the same coin really - there's more sets in more basements because more people had that extra 2-3 years to keep socking sets away.

So, more supply and less demand.

That is what I thought until I realized the increase in resellers has had no effect on aftermarket prices at all for sets with the regular 2 year shelf life. One normally becomes a reseller after coming out of the dark ages and becoming a lego consumer again. Only a very small percentage will go on to become large resellers. As long as TLG keeps bringing in new customers the balance should continue - once we see their sales growth slow then all bets are off.

IMO 2 years is the right length of time to promote a set but also ensure a large percentage of the fan base will miss out on it. 4-5 years leaves little chance for fans to miss out on it. I also don't believe existing resellers will add more of a set simply because it has been out longer. If anything the reverse should be true and stocks would be pared back. Look at Helms Deep, it is being stocked big time but will follow the same pattern as 10194 and 4842. What was different about 10193?....that extra 3 years of shelf time. Will 10197 or 10220 fly high in the future?...not a chance IMO (unless 10220 gets retired very soon).

cloaked7

I agree wholeheartedly that the time a set is available is a HUGE part of the equation. Target's Zombie set is an example of one extreme, FB and Luke's Landspeeder the other extreme.

So, that makes it extremely difficult to pick a winner early. It may have all the makings of a winner, but then become a loser if TLG keeps the set around forever.

Personally I think the VW Camper will do well. As you mentioned, how well will depend on how long it is a current set. I think its uniqueness will carry it a long way. Also, I don't think anywhere as many VW Campers have been sold as FB's were sold.

margot

dragonhawk said:

@margot Try to avoid Parcel Post in December. It is cheap but very slow and prone to problems.

Thanks, and thanks everyone else who responded.

doriansdad

cloaked7 said:

Personally I think the VW Camper will do well. As you mentioned, how well will depend on how long it is a current set. I think its uniqueness will carry it a long way. Also, I don't think anywhere as many VW Campers have been sold as FB's were sold.

I hope you are right but if things stay in balance you will have to add 1 year on the backend for every one year it stays past 2 years to enjoy "regular" returns.

cloaked7

Possibly true, but how many are bought is part of the equation too. Being an exclusive set, which can't be marked down, will keep that number lower than usual. So, maybe those two aspects even out? It is always interesting to see how it plays out. Used to be, exclusives were a no brainer, but if they morph into exclusives that are available forever it changes everything.

Worse case, I don't mind keeping a set for another year. Many times one more year makes a huge difference. There have been several sets that didn't get to the price point I wanted, so I just set them aside for next year. In all cases that worked in my favor. Course, storage isn't an issue for me. And, I'm not talking about 50 of any given set.

CCC

cloaked7 said:

I agree wholeheartedly that the time a set is available is a HUGE part of the equation. Target's Zombie set is an example of one extreme, FB and Luke's Landspeeder the other extreme.

That is not so much length of time as shock of disappearing very early compared to other sets.

If something is expected to be around a year, then does it matter if its actual shelf-life is 3, 6 or 9 months? Especially if it is not on sale in those 3, 6 or 9 months, then resellers may be waiting for the final clearance prices to stock up. So long as it is cut short at some point earlier than expected, then I don't think the actual amount of time matters too much.

prevere

^Architecture Studio is an interesting story.

2-month window (Aug 13 to Oct 13). $150 for 1,200 parts is overpriced to begin with. Now selling for $200-$225 range. Likely $250 by Xmas. But I think it peaks there, imho.

I don't know if it's gone for good. Seems like it was a good seller, but Lego may just move on. Weird.

LegoFanTexas

FollowsClosely said:

The FB is currently $199.99 at Amazon. I did not expect it to jump that fast. Let's see if it stays there long. FYI, it still under MSRP at brick link for those that missed it.

It always jumps that fast on Amazon, but consider the fees. Those sellers are mostly breaking even if brought at RRP.

cloaked7

CCC said:

cloaked7 said:

I agree wholeheartedly that the time a set is available is a HUGE part of the equation. Target's Zombie set is an example of one extreme, FB and Luke's Landspeeder the other extreme.

That is not so much length of time as shock of disappearing very early compared to other sets.

If something is expected to be around a year, then does it matter if its actual shelf-life is 3, 6 or 9 months? Especially if it is not on sale in those 3, 6 or 9 months, then resellers may be waiting for the final clearance prices to stock up. So long as it is cut short at some point earlier than expected, then I don't think the actual amount of time matters too much.

Excellent point. That holds true not only for LEGOS, but for pretty much everything in life. Expectations, that is. Are they met? Are they exceeded? The thing with LEGOS, any expectation it is a shaky one. We kinda, sorta, know how long a set might be available, but it's a shot in the dark. Personally I have a low expectation when dealing with TLG now days when it comes to how long a set will be out. It is simply too much of an unknown.

bp10030

#9474 and #9468 at S@H europe with "Call to check..."

Finally no more boring as nearly every day one nice set is going away...

prevere

The majority of the sets are still on the 2-year lifespan. It's just those certain exclusive and really popular ones that live on, and on and on.

There are just too many sets. And didn't Lego do this in the late 90s and early 00s when they went crazy with specialized parts and off-the-wall sets?

madforLEGO

^-Yeah I see parallels here with the late 90's. Not as bad as junior-ization, but seems like LEGO is getting a bit too big for its britches

prevere

^What was that about juniorizaton?

madforLEGO

Im referring to the old days of printed slope bricks with headlights and all one chassis axle and frame, but yeah LEGO seems to be getting a little lazy with their designs.
At least until the new City sets came out, which seems better. But for the licenses it seems like LEGO is 'phoning it in' on the sets but no issues charging the same if not more.

prevere

prevere said:

So, who's going to blow all their recent profits on Cyber Monday deals? First time I'm passing in a few years.

And so I caved. Stagecoach for $18, check, Helm's Deep for $95, check.

Brickarmor

Secondary prices for 40083 should be bolstered by the total lack of orders going through S@H... Trying to see the silver lining on their dull cloud.

madforLEGO

The stagecoach for 18 is a great deal IMO.
You get 3 horses, a neat carriage and a bunch of figures.

TheLoneTensor

^ Honestly, it was a great deal at $30 for the same reasons.

Amazon has done a fantastic job of proving how little willpower I have today.

CircleK

^ No kidding. I may have worked for 10 minutes today - 15 minutes tops.

Pacific493

I don't know if this has been noted before, but FB has moved to Sold Out on S@H.

weaselking

madforLEGO said:

So I see more Thor related sets, and probably X-Men: Days of Future past, which will be interesting (then again they did not do an X-Men First Class line)

I don't know the ins and outs of studio licensing, but those two X-Men flicks were released by Fox, so that may have something to do with it.

As for Warner Brothersand the Supes/Batman movie coming, I imagine the two biggest names in the DC universe will be reserved for some bricks. Having been disappointed in the recent Man of Steel sets, I hope the Superman/Batman sets will be worth the wait.

**EDIT** Sorry, I was quoting something from October. Kill this post if you can...*

Bumblepants

Pacific493 said:

I don't know if this has been noted before, but FB has moved to Sold Out on S@H.

May it rest in pieces.

LegoFanTexas

We had the great IS countdown awhile ago, but it seems FB went out with but a wimper...

Does anyone care anymore? Does anyone else have a stack of them left?

My personal opinion? This won't go above $200 on Bricklink or above $250 on eBay by Christmas of next year. We'll see if I'm right or wrong, but I think it will stay low for awhile while people sell at about $200 shipped to get their money back. Once those sellers are gone, we'll see a slow rise.

I don't think we'll see anything like GG numbers, much less CC numbers. It would have had to leave 2 years ago for GG numbers to happen, and I think CC numbers are once in a very blue moon anyway.

Thoughts?

dougts

10217 had a much shorter life, is in the HP theme which is otherwise gaining very well, and yet more than a year after EOL it still hasn't doubled RRP yet

I have half dozen FBs, but at this point I'm not expecting much. My average but price is about 25% off RRP, so that helps, but I'm not expecting much

flyingpig

LegoFanTexas said:

We had the great IS countdown awhile ago, but it seems FB went out with but a wimper...

Does anyone care anymore? Does anyone else have a stack of them left?

My personal opinion? This won't go above $200 on Bricklink or above $250 on eBay by Christmas of next year. We'll see if I'm right or wrong, but I think it will stay low for awhile while people sell at about $200 shipped to get their money back. Once those sellers are gone, we'll see a slow rise.

I don't think we'll see anything like GG numbers, much less CC numbers. It would have had to leave 2 years ago for GG numbers to happen, and I think CC numbers are once in a very blue moon anyway.

Thoughts?

I believe the bet hanging out there is 250 on amazon in Dec next year. Care to take it up? Someone was wagering a FB...

Thanos75

Target still has the FB in stock. So what is the offical time of death for the set?...when S@H and Amazon is out or when Target and Wal-mart are out aswell?

CCC

Thanos75 said:

Target still has the FB in stock. So what is the offical time of death for the set?...when S@H and Amazon is out or when Target and Wal-mart are out aswell?

Well, the official time (as logged by brickset) is when S@H is OOS.

LegoFanTexas

The real money in FB is for those copies purchased for less than RRP.

Anyone remember the $111 and $107 copies that Walmart sold last year? I ended up with a few... 9 of them at that price I think, something like that...

Most of mine were purchased for full price however, usually combined with double VIP or holiday bonus sets or other such things (TC-14) to give a "discount".

LegoFanTexas

flyingpig said:

I believe the bet hanging out there is 250 on amazon in Dec next year. Care to take it up? Someone was wagering a FB...

No, it will get to $250 on Amazon by next Christmas... or it should anyway... but after fees, you're really only getting $200, which isn't terrible, but not great either.

I'll be more impressed if it gets to $250 on Bricklink by next Christmas, that is a more interesting number.

I would, however, take a bet on $300 on Amazon, it won't get that high by end of 2014.

littlepuppi

Batcave #6860 looks to be going up quite fast, heading up towards £100 quid on amazon... I think that one will do well..

I also have a feeling #9474 will do really well, its a stonking set, I know quite a few are probably "hoarded" but its just so cool!

My final pick for next year, I have a funny feeling the good old B wing will do very nicely in Europe, I just do not think many are out there...

jasonord69a

^ I predict at least £250 this time next year on the B Wing

Gavin83

Funhouse escape seems to be increasing nicely too.

The batcave is my most stocked set at the mo so I'm hoping it increases rapidly. I bought all mine for a 1/3 off so any rise is good.

roxio

^I'm hopeful for Batcave as well, went in heavy at £35 each

littlepuppi

Im not heavy in batcave, got 3 at around the 40 mark, but just got 2 more @ 60 as I didnt realise it had gone, but I just cannot see the batcave doing badly...

Brickarmor

6860 still at retail on US Amazon and S@H (after being "sold out").

doriansdad

I think Batcave and Funhouse were the sets to get for this theme (particularly Funhouse). Arkham is the next great pick at the end of 2015 IMO.

Gavin83

Agreed. Don't have any yet but will be picking up as many as I can next year. Starting to seriously consider my choice for next years sets as these years now seem to be reaching EOL.

madforLEGO

I just think half of the people trashing FBs value also happen to have stacks of them.

BTHodgeman

Brickarmor said:

Secondary prices for 40083 should be bolstered by the total lack of orders going through S@H... Trying to see the silver lining on their dull cloud.

They'll dispose them in the stores after Christmas like they did a couple years ago. They'll be 'clearanced' for $4.99 I'm sure, meaning that they're not so "exclusive."

madforLEGO

FB appears to only be at Target now, sold out at Walmart.com and a search for lego fire brigade at TRU comes up with nothing.

LEGO S@H US is showing Unimog as call for availability.

chrisdojo

I had an order with #9470 LOTR Shelob Attacks, they were removed from the order. Searching on shop.lego.com shows you can still add it to your bag but within product info, it states "Call to check product availability".

Any feelings on LOTR stuff? I'm thinking it won't do well until next year around this time.

Pitfall69

madforLEGO said:

I just think half of the people trashing FBs value also happen to have stacks of them.

Reverse psychology perhaps?

Pitfall69

chrisdojo said:

I had an order with #9470 LOTR Shelob Attacks, they were removed from the order. Searching on shop.lego.com shows you can still add it to your bag but within product info, it states "Call to check product availability".

Any feelings on LOTR stuff? I'm thinking it won't do well until next year around this time.

Orc Forge and Attack on Weathertop will do well. Helms Deep coupled with Uruk-Hai will do great.

hoyatables

^ Weathertop does well until and unless another set comes out with the Black Riders. It was a fun little build, but overpriced for what it was and the remaining figs aren't enough of a draw - Frodo and Aragorn are in other popular sets.

I'm not sold on Orc Forge either - the set never appealed to me when it came out, but I ultimately picked one up because I didn't want to miss out. I hope it does well because I'll happily sell it for the right price.

Agree that Helms Deep and the Uruk-Hai wall section will do well. Helms Deep is iconic and I think people will want this in the same way that they want Hogwarts Castle.

Only question in my mind is whether LOTR will behave more like Harry Potter or Indiana Jones.

chrisdojo

^ IMO, LOTR won't reach HP or Indiana Jones. HP has a much larger audience. Indiana Jones seems that it was missed by many people and [maybe] not produced in quantities that sets are today.

I hope LOTR does OK though because I have a few "complete collections" of the first wave. If it doesn't do well, at least medieval is my favorite theme to build 0_o

Dougout

I think most of the LOTR stuff will do well just because it is Lord of the Rings. I really like the Shelob Attacks set, it's a neat little set.

Brickarmor

I ordered a bunch of #10197 to part out but can't resist keeping one MISB. It may be awhile before the selling price comes close to the POV, but what's one more sealed FB? I'll answer that in 3-5 years.

Same with #9474, but backwards. Although it could be had for $80-90 months back, ~$100 ain't bad when the end is nigh. If it falters or there are way more hoarded than can be known, it remains an outstanding parts pack.

As far as HP, I'm interested to see what #4738 and #4867 get to this month. So far they have stayed almost exactly where they ended last year.

margot

doriansdad said:

I think Batcave and Funhouse were the sets to get for this theme (particularly Funhouse).

Both TRUs I went to today had TONS of the Funhouse in stock. Even one that didn't show as having any when I checked online. Price in store is $59 I think, but they price matched and did the BOGO50 for me when I complained about it not showing in stock for in store pickup.