Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

adn2377

What is your opinion on the 9444 Ninjago Coles Tread Assault set? I have an opportunity to buy around 150 of these and try to sell them around 36 Euro each, but I cannot afford to keep those money stuck for long...

Dad

^ Forget it. Honestly, that simple.

prevere

So, is the consensus that GE will quickly follow FB into retirement?

Dad

^ I think it will be gone by Christmas but I'll take the chance. I wont be buying anymore, if it goes I'll just sit on what I have for longer. So far I think the retirements have been pretty much as expected but sure there's a surprise to come. Just don't know what it is!

madforLEGO

prevere said:

So, is the consensus that GE will quickly follow FB into retirement?

The litmus test is watching lego.com for overseas buyers in Europe as it seems those locations run out of the set before the US does.
As I have not heard of anyone trumpeting that GE is gone on their location site Ill assume that GE is around for another year, but would not be surprised if it retires to be honest.

TheLoneTensor

iamterry said:

LegoFanTexas said:

iamterry said:

Heh, I've only got myself to blame for (potentially) missing the FB - only 'relatively' recently came out of dark ages so playing a catch up game.

I don't think you're missing much, it will be out there for under $200 well into next year. If you're willing to spend $150 now, $175 shouldn't kill you in 6 months.

To be honest, I'd struggle to justify more than RRP to the Mrs :) Doesn't matter now as I popped to the MK lego store and grabbed one at an approximate 40% discount with my vip points + 10% black friday included. They also had some thanksgiving sets left so that's a perfect xmas dinner set ready to go!

I hope you didn't use the points you gained to earn that "40% discount" today to help justify a purchase you got previously to gain those points ;)

Pacific493

LegoFanTexas said:

Just to toss a happy note into this thread...

Sales this year had been running 20% below 2012... however the past 2 days has seen a spike and now I'm actually running ahead of 2012 slightly...

Perhaps it is the weather (poor weather in parts of the US might have kept people home). Perhaps people are sick of the mall and more are doing online shopping...

Perhaps it is just the compressed holiday season and more sales are being pushed into Thursday/Friday for Thanksgiving...

But overall, my mood has gone from bummed to generally happy. Margins are still down, but at least gross sales numbers have recovered. Now just waiting to see what December brings! :)

Anyone else see a surge in the past 2 days? Anyone have great or terrible sales to report?

My sales have shot up over the past two days. I had sold most of my inventory prior to black friday and was only getting a few sales a day, but yesterday, I sold more in one day than I had all year.

xeeeej

Speaking of #9396, it's ~$76 from Amazon UK right now, which is about 36% off US RRP.

Covi

As of today the Vampyre Hearse went into "retired product" on my Lego Shop page (Belgium). Glad I picked up two last week.

legogregors

^^#9396 was closer to $63 each shipped when I tested amazon UK. Is there an unadvertised additional discount?

doriansdad

Anyone giving any thought to picking up 6857 at tru. B1G1 50% off. Brings the total to $45 each. 5% cashback plus 1% credit card cashback works out to be $42.30 shipped. Sold out at [email protected] and will be retired very soon.

doriansdad

Went ahead and loaded up. Don't see why this is not a $120 set a year from now.

pharmjod

I think it is a good set. Not sure about a quadruple in price in a years time though. If it is indeed retired maybe, but sold out doesn't equal retired. I think you could do worse for sure though.

chrisdojo

I'm surprised to see the first minecraft set #21102 out of sock at lego.com. Maybe TLG didn't make enough for a 2nd year in a row?

LegoFanTexas

TLG clearly made a ton more Minecraft this year than last year, it has stayed in stock various places most of the season so far, even remaining the number 1 building set on Amazon for weeks on end... and staying in stock the whole time...

It recently went out of stock, came back in, went out, came back in... now it is gone again...

I would imagine they have another shipment inbound, you'll see this back in stock in the next week, but it probably won't last long then.

It is very rare for a toy to be in demand two years in a row. I can't actually recall the last time that happened. So they made more, but they probably didn't want to overproduce and end up with surplus either.

Last year, it was pushing $130+, so the true test of how much undersupply there is will be what price it hits. If it stays around $50 or so, even from resellers, then TLG at least did a better job of it this year.

LegoFanTexas

Since we're trying to keep all reseller talk in this thread...

I just wanted to remind everyone that Amazon has a rule about the use of Prime accounts for buying for resale. If you're buying a bunch of the current deals with the intention to resell them and you have Prime, what you're supposed to do is create a second non-Prime buyer account and buy via that account.

Amazon doesn't mind you using Free Super Saver Shipping for items purchased for resale (or even dropshipped to customers), but they do get cranky about Prime being used for that purpose.

Note that this is for volume buying, if you are just doing the "buy 2, keep 1, sell 1" thing, then I doubt they care as much and you shouldn't be noticed using Prime for that.

However, do keep in mind that while 2-day shipping on Prime is "FREE", it really isn't, Amazon has to recover that cost somewhere. When checking out, you can switch to Free Standard Shipping on a Prime account, it does slow delivery down by a day or two, but if you're not in a rush, it will ultimately save everyone money by saving Amazon money on shipping.

FatMatt

$120 on 6857 is actually only triple, not quadruple. That may be pushing it a little, but I could sure see it getting close. I think $100 is definitely feasible.

margot

Question for the experts here. What service do you use to ship your #41999s? I told @Rancorbait I would sell him one at cost and I need to figure out a shipping cost for him so he can decide if he wants it.

legogregors

I used USPS to ship one from PA to OR Parcel Post through PayPal shipping labels and it was about $20 for eight pounds, signature confirmation and $199.99 USPS insurance. I think you have to careful not to use an oversized box or it jumps significantly but $20 seemed reasonable.

Briking

I'd hoped to buy a couple of FBs as part packs yesterday at Westfield, but they didn't have any on the shelf. Checked Lego.co.uk this evening - Sold Out.

Is this the end of civilisation as we know it??

nkx1

^^^I used FedEx for the 41999s I sold, in addition to everything else. Cheap, fast and reliable, provided you create an account and ship using their online interface. I made the misake of going into a FedEx Office retail location to ship a package once and was surprised how much more they charge retail customers than customers with an account.

The only thing you can't do with FedEx is ship to a PO Box, unless you do a substantial amount of business with them. I was turned down when I asked them to enable that service for me.

You're extremely nice to sell a 41999 at cost.

legogregors

^About how much for FedEx for the 41999?

nkx1

^I've shipped more than one to various parts of the country from CA, and I haven't paid more than $20 including adult signature (box size = 24x16x4, padded with packing paper). People seem to get testy about purchasing too many 41999s, so I wont say how many I've sold :)

Of course, I seem to have lucked out and not had to ship any to rural areas, for which FedEx charges a bit more. All in all, FedEx seems to have been a bit cheaper for me than UPS. I've never bothered with USPS because they seem somewhat disorganized and their services don't automatically include tracking etc. And I had an insurance claim debacle with USPS a long time ago, which I'm not sure they ever paid.

rancorbait

nkx1 said:

You're extremely nice to sell a 41999 at cost.

Indeed! :-)

madforLEGO

Briking said:

I'd hoped to buy a couple of FBs as part packs yesterday at Westfield, but they didn't have any on the shelf. Checked Lego.co.uk this evening - Sold Out.

Is this the end of civilisation as we know it??

I think it has been seen already that FB is going away (finally)

prevere

I used to love 6857. Until I saw a pic of someone's basement with like a hundred of them.

pharmjod

That's my biggest concern with that set is that everyone and their brother has a ton of them because it's the "obvious" winner. I have 2, and that may be all I end up with.

LegoFanTexas

madforLEGO said:

I think it has been seen already that FB is going away (finally)

Yes, but it has been so long it is rather anti-climatic...

It's like the relative that overstays his/her welcome during the holidays...

FollowsClosely

The FB is currently $199.99 at Amazon. I did not expect it to jump that fast. Let's see if it stays there long. FYI, it still under MSRP at brick link for those that missed it.

samiam391

21 pages of available Fire Brigades on Bricklink speaks volumes of how many of these have been stockpiled away.

I don't have one myself, but I'm guessing we'll see a small surge as everyone realizes it has gone away, and then a stalemate because of the incredible amount of stock everyone still owns.

FollowsClosely

on bl only 36 are under $200 in the USA. It will be interesting to watch that number flux.

charlatan13

ColoradoBricks said:

prevere said:

^Is 21050 Architecture Studio already about done? [email protected] has call to check on that one too.

[email protected] still sold out, can't be found on B&N.com, stores do not have it anymore and when I inquired about it they told me they din't have any in stock in their warehouse. Walmart.com use to have it and is OOS too.

Any thoughts about 21050? They had one left on the shelf at B&N tonight (not supposed to buy things for myself at Christmas), but if it's already scarce I figure I should just get it now. I'm not into the architecture series but it appeals to me for some reason (a nice contrast to Orthanc?)

LegoFanTexas

FollowsClosely said:

on bl only 36 are under $200 in the USA. It will be interesting to watch that number flux.

36 total qty or 36 sellers with listings? There is a big difference between the two.

samiam391

LegoFanTexas said:

FollowsClosely said:

on bl only 36 are under $200 in the USA. It will be interesting to watch that number flux.

36 total qty or 36 sellers with listings? There is a big difference between the two.

Looks like 36 sellers, with upwards of 140 quantity (rough count).

chrisdojo

Interesting to see that the 2 new Minecraft sets are now out of stock on lego.com.

LegoFanTexas

samiam391 said:

Looks like 36 sellers, with upwards of 140 quantity (rough count).

And that is but a small number of the total stocked away.

I have half that many and not one is listed on BL.

There are thousands of FB around the world stocked up, the supply will be plentiful for awhile...

Basta

^Maybe you can find the #41999 guy in England, convince him to corner the FB market :/

doriansdad

I think it all comes down to the time period a set is available. The problem for sets like 10193 and 10197 IMO is on the demand side and not the supply side. I have yet to see even the most "obvious" winner that has the usual 2 year shelf life not perform well despite massive stocking (10199, 10194, 4842, 10219 etc)....it is those extra 2-3 years of shelf-life that collectors have to purchase the set at retail that kills returns, not the 100 sets in someone's basement.

dougts

^ You are right of course, but it's two sides of the same coin really - there's more sets in more basements because more people had that extra 2-3 years to keep socking sets away.

So, more supply and less demand.

CCC

prevere said:

I used to love 6857. Until I saw a pic of someone's basement with like a hundred of them.

What, in boxes? Or made into one huge Joker's lair?

CCC

doriansdad said:

I think it all comes down to the time period a set is available. The problem for sets like 10193 and 10197 IMO is on the demand side and not the supply side. I have yet to see even the most "obvious" winner that has the usual 2 year shelf life not perform well despite massive stocking (10199, 10194, 4842, 10219 etc)....it is those extra 2-3 years of shelf-life that collectors have to purchase the set at retail that kills returns, not the 100 sets in someone's basement.

It is a combination of effects. There are also the soon-to-be-AFOLs that discover lego again in the next two years, and the ones that do so in the next five years. They didn't buy it as they had no interest in lego at the time, but will possibly want one when they do have an interest.

Price then depends on numbers held by resellers, the desire to get shot of them, and what lego brings out in its place.

FollowsClosely

LegoFanTexas said:

FollowsClosely said:

on bl only 36 are under $200 in the USA. It will be interesting to watch that number flux.

36 total qty or 36 sellers with listings? There is a big difference between the two.

A total of 22 sellers having a sum if 36 sets. That number I expect to go way up over the next few weeks.

prevere

So, who's going to blow all their recent profits on Cyber Monday deals? First time I'm passing in a few years.

Bumblepants

^No stocking up on Lasha's Bite Cycle then? :)

FollowsClosely

prevere said:

So, who's going to blow all their recent profits on Cyber Monday deals? First time I'm passing in a few years.

It will have to be an incredible deal for me to pull the trigger.

Brickarmor

I wasn't going to buy anything today either, then 9474 dropped to $95 on Amazon.

bp10030

#8110 and #7937 with "Call to check..." at [email protected] europe

stevemack

Gents, thoughts on 7498 Police station? I got a load at £33 and it's now Call to check at [email protected] usa and sold out on UK [email protected]?

FollowsClosely

The set is redone every year. you might as well sell them all now.

stevemack

Do the old ones hold any value at all or do the contstant re-releases prevent it gaining anything?