Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

luckyruss

Only 251 FBs now left at John Lewis - they have less GEs.

CircleK

Dad said:

bp10030 said:

#10197 sold out now at [email protected] europe

So now let the moaning start ref resellers hoarding all these and people not having the chance to buy it.

I'm starting an online petition to bring it back for all of those who missed out on it ;)

iamterry

Heh, I've only got myself to blame for (potentially) missing the FB - only 'relatively' recently came out of dark ages so playing a catch up game.

Was playing the risky wait till double points in October game to pick it up only to see the 10% black friday weekend offer appear. Decided to wait again for that, even mentioning to wife that I plan to pick it up from a store this weekend getting a discount using both the vip points and promo discount.

Oh well, guess I'll call a few up tomorrow morning and see if any in stock otherwise I'll have to settle with less of a discount.

jasor

9 FB left in stock at Amazon

JamesJT

Only 5 left

bp10030

Since I have seen published three new modulares finally I see the first going EOL. epic!

jasonord69a

Let's start a new countdown. Over 1500 still left between the various EU Amazon sites. Still over 400 at John Lewis at £89.99 as well ( I got fed up of adding 25 to my basket at a time)

Considering S&H has now sold out in Europe, these numbers may start falling fairly quickly.

FollowsClosely

This sucks compared to the IS countdown.

FollowsClosely

3

LegoFanTexas

.

FollowsClosely said:

This sucks compared to the IS countdown.

Yea, but IS went within a reasonable period of time... it also went during a time of the year when we had nothing else to watch... hard to complete for attention on the same day that almost everything else is 30+% off.

Plus, it also went when Amazon was the only game left in town really, I think everyone else had sold out first. Now, the others still have stock.

FB has been out so long, I think we're all a bit sick of it by now. Well, those of us with a stack of them sitting around for 2+ years anyway...

LegoFanTexas

jasonord69a said:

Let's start a new countdown. Over 1500 still left between the various EU Amazon sites. Still over 400 at John Lewis at £89.99 as well ( I got fed up of adding 25 to my basket at a time)

Considering S&H has now sold out in Europe, these numbers may start falling fairly quickly.

yes, that takes the wind out of the sails... too much stock, I think we all know this...

LegoFanTexas

iamterry said:

Heh, I've only got myself to blame for (potentially) missing the FB - only 'relatively' recently came out of dark ages so playing a catch up game.

I don't think you're missing much, it will be out there for under $200 well into next year. If you're willing to spend $150 now, $175 shouldn't kill you in 6 months.

Frankly, I am not convinced it will rise above $200 by next Christmas, I give it a 50/50 chance.

LegoFanTexas

2 left... :)

Someone buy the last two and be done with it! :)

Pitfall69

I have 3 left showing. Someone must have had buyers remorse. I know I do :)

madforLEGO

Meh, Better deal now at LEGO.com (US) if you are going to get the FB, you pay the same and get the holiday set and gift card.

Dad

luckyruss said:

Only 251 FBs now left at John Lewis - they have less GEs.

139 now, they're moving fast. Strange that the WVC isn't moving though?

luckyruss

Indeed - only 955 of those WVC left - all yours for £77,345 (and qualifies for free delivery).

Thinking about it, at that volume, I would expect they'll want to discount them after Christmas - won't want to sit on that stock for another year.

Dad

^ They did it with the Toy Shop....£25 each. But once they discount them you'll have to be quick!

LegoFanTexas

FB is gone from Amazon.com - now the countdown starts for everywhere else. :)

If anyone sees it go from [email protected], be sure to let us all know. :)

madforLEGO

Yeah, now comes the countdown when TRU will get rid of their stocks (as Im guessing they will be the last to sell out of them)

iluvmyelement

According to my contact at [email protected] in Enfield, they expect their stock to last less than 6 days (based on qty they could see in stock). And that's only based on regular sales - not the panic buying that could set in if people realize it's disappearing.

scrumper

^I guess people did.

madforLEGO

US [email protected] does still have FBs available, right now anyway.
My guess again is that TRU will be the last ones standing with FBs in stock (even though they are not higher priced).

Buying from LEGO is a good idea right now anyway if you want one. You get the Holiday set #2 and also the 10 dollar gift card

Chompers

Dad said:

luckyruss said:

Only 251 FBs now left at John Lewis - they have less GEs.

139 now, they're moving fast. Strange that the WVC isn't moving though?

212 Showing @ JL = confused

Hardrada

There was 193 available about an hour ago. Now it's 211. Either the numbers mean nothing or they cancelled some orders. (Maybe because of ordering too high quantities?)

The price is very tempting to be honest, it's almost 30% off compared to the European 150 EUR retail price.

Chompers

Could be that people are sitting with them in their baskets and not pushing the "buy" button

Have to say that both FB & WVC do look well priced given EOL?

CCC

The number available doesn't go down if you put them in your basket, only when you checkout. someone else can buy something if it is in your cart.

flyingpig

JL is not reliable when it comes to tracking stock. They tend to find more inventory regularly.

FollowsClosely

LegoFanTexas said:

iamterry said:

Heh, I've only got myself to blame for (potentially) missing the FB - only 'relatively' recently came out of dark ages so playing a catch up game.

I don't think you're missing much, it will be out there for under $200 well into next year. If you're willing to spend $150 now, $175 shouldn't kill you in 6 months.

Frankly, I am not convinced it will rise above $200 by next Christmas, I give it a 50/50 chance.

I will bet a FB that it will be over 250 on amazon next December.

LegoFanTexas

On Amazon, it might... On Bricklink, not so much... The fee differences and return policy difference always dictate a higher price on Amazon...

MathBuilder

^Not to mention savvier customers.

LegoFanTexas

Just to toss a happy note into this thread...

Sales this year had been running 20% below 2012... however the past 2 days has seen a spike and now I'm actually running ahead of 2012 slightly...

Perhaps it is the weather (poor weather in parts of the US might have kept people home). Perhaps people are sick of the mall and more are doing online shopping...

Perhaps it is just the compressed holiday season and more sales are being pushed into Thursday/Friday for Thanksgiving...

But overall, my mood has gone from bummed to generally happy. Margins are still down, but at least gross sales numbers have recovered. Now just waiting to see what December brings! :)

Anyone else see a surge in the past 2 days? Anyone have great or terrible sales to report?

vitreolum

Also had a great month, had more sales than in the past 3 moths combined.
Can't compare with last year though as my stock is much more relevant than it was.

Most people here still don't trust online traders around here, regardless of feedback and rep. Most still prefer to pay 2x in stores. But this is slowly starting to change.

LegoFanTexas

I'm just glad that I don't have to personally pack and ship it all. :)

prevere

^Ditto LFT on the lag and spike.

luckyruss

Hardrada said:

There was 193 available about an hour ago. Now it's 211. Either the numbers mean nothing or they cancelled some orders. (Maybe because of ordering too high quantities?)

The price is very tempting to be honest, it's almost 30% off compared to the European 150 EUR retail price.

It does seem clear the numbers are falling though - 151 earlier this morning, it is saying only 87 left now.

FatMatt

I have had a drastic spike in my sales in the last three weeks. Unfortunately though, I do pack and ship it al:).

gmpirate

Same here. Sales had been way off until Wed and things really started spiking up. Left town Wed night for a baseball tournament in Vegas and will be back Monday morning. Going to be a buy day of packing.

BuriedinBricks

I don't do anything near the volume I know some of you do, but I have sold almost everything I put up on ebay in mid-November. Most of it sold in just the last few days, with half of those on Thanksgiving Day itself.

Pitfall69

FatMatt said:

I have had a drastic spike in my sales in the last three weeks. Unfortunately though, I do pack and ship it al:).

Well, you are brown and "What can brown do for you?"

FatMatt

They do a lot:)

bp10030

#9396 could be going away. [email protected] europe has it on status "Call to check..." As the helicopter is not usually mainstream technic and as a year 2012 release it could increase in demand. Surely the model won't be repeated so soon.

Bosstone100

Guys... just some advice... if you can get Fire Brigade or Grand Emporium for that matter, get 'em quick. Even if you don't like the sets, the price per piece is excellent, which goes a long way when it comes to MOCing.

Have four FB and debating getting another GE or two. Only have two.

iluvmyelement

^
Agreed. Great parts to have even if the set value doesn't climb like past modulars.

ColoradoBricks

prevere said:

^Is 21050 Architecture Studio already about done? [email protected] has call to check on that one too.

[email protected] still sold out, can't be found on B&N.com, stores do not have it anymore and when I inquired about it they told me they din't have any in stock in their warehouse. Walmart.com use to have it and is OOS too.

iamterry

LegoFanTexas said:

iamterry said:

Heh, I've only got myself to blame for (potentially) missing the FB - only 'relatively' recently came out of dark ages so playing a catch up game.

I don't think you're missing much, it will be out there for under $200 well into next year. If you're willing to spend $150 now, $175 shouldn't kill you in 6 months.

To be honest, I'd struggle to justify more than RRP to the Mrs :) Doesn't matter now as I popped to the MK lego store and grabbed one at an approximate 40% discount with my vip points + 10% black friday included. They also had some thanksgiving sets left so that's a perfect xmas dinner set ready to go!

SuperTramp

FB now out of stock at John Lewis.

piratemania7

Any predictions on when all these places will have FB BACK in stock? Since we all know the typical routine? Haha.

Dad

bp10030 said:

#9396 could be going away. [email protected] europe has it on status "Call to check..." As the helicopter is not usually mainstream technic and as a year 2012 release it could increase in demand. Surely the model won't be repeated so soon.

Sincerely hope so as these were £29 in Tesco in January. Sometimes sets are such a price that it doesn't matter how long they have until they retire, you've just got to buy as many as you can get your hands on and sit on them.

cardgenius

I'm small time but I've done much better this year than I did last year. I sell on eBay mostly and I think it has to do with changing from strictly auction to Buy It Now. My margins are up and I seem to be selling them just as fast as if it were an auction. Not being shackled to listing on Sundays only has been a plus too. I've also been using the Global Shipping Program and it's helped out a bunch too. I've sold more overseas in the last month than I did in the 8 years I've had this account.