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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    edited November 2013


    Why do you hope it works out? This could be a great example that reselling is not guaranteed profit, and the need for diversification.
  • vitreolumvitreolum Member Posts: 1,406
    ^ It's an example that blind reselling is not guaranteed profit, not reselling in general.

    And to the outside it will not be an example at all, prices WILL increase for the set in the following years, so to the average joe it will still look like a good idea: buy for $400 sell for $700, that is all they will see; they will not take into account the time that money stays locked.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    mooman66 said:

    Alright, I give. I'd appreciate the contact info, too...maybe then I'll be on his good side when the Crawler invasion begins.

    I for one, welcome my new 4x4 Crawler overlord.
    sidersddmooman66odshowtimepreverejasor
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    edited November 2013
    Any idea on the WV Toy Shop? I got this when it was released, but never really got hooked to the WV series. I see the going rate on BL for a used set is $150. Do you guys think it will go up or down after the holiday season?

    Note: I've never sold a LEGO set before. The box is in mint condition, with no dents and bruises, and instructions are in good condition as well.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Member Posts: 873
    I think this set will continue to go up in value as more new people come into the hobby and build out the winter line.
    LegobrandonCPsidersddvitreolum
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    hoyatables said:

    I think this set will continue to go up in value as more new people come into the hobby and build out the winter line.

    You're right. I'm going to hold onto it for a bit until LEGO discontinues the whole WV line.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    I don't think TLG discontinues anything anymore :/
    DougoutMathBuilderFollowsCloselycloaked7dougtsjasor
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    The Winter Village theme should continue for as long as the modular line lasts which may be indefinitely. I need a Toy Shop, but I may wait to see if the price comes down a bit when the theme gets filled up.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Basta said:

    I don't think TLG discontinues anything anymore :/

    Sure they do, any day now I'm sure FB will go...

    *crickets chirping*

    Yea, come on, any day now...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    BTW, Amazon has 130 FB left, if you trust their shopping cart... It has been slowly dropping the past few weeks, I haven't seen it restock recently, but of course that doesn't really mean much.

    At its current pace, they should run out sometime in the next two weeks. Be interesting to see what happens if they run out by Christmas and don't restock, that'll help vs. running out 2 weeks after Christmas.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    ^To make sure they are gone just buy 130 of them, it would only increase your FB holding by a percent or 2 wouldn't it ;)
    Dougout
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Funny... down to 126, but of course you couldn't buy them, they only allow 2 per week. :)

    And frankly, that would be the last item I'd buy 126 of...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    Are we really going to have a countdown for FB?
    FollowsCloselyPitfall69
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,633
    ^Either that or we will start arguing about PS4 vs XBone or packing materials :)
    legofanfromleedsUKtsumi
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    Ooooo Cardboard :) Definately double walled is the best way forward!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Oh, do we have to go with cardboard? Was so looking forward to a good next gen debate that the admins could then delete. :)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Na, increased shipping costs
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    madforLEGO said:

    Are we really going to have a countdown for FB?

    Not yet, only down to 123, so it may take awhile...

    DS shows over 1,000 in stock...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    I don't think 10197 is going anywhere just yet unfortunately. Even if they have stopped production there should be enough supply to last for many months next year. I don't see it as sold out at a single vendor across the globe.
    FollowsClosely
  • luckyrussluckyruss Member Posts: 872
    edited November 2013
    Lobot said:

    #10227 is now 'Sold out' in [email protected] UK, so can I assume that it's finally been discontinued in Europe? Assuming that Toys R Us don't have a massive stockpile of them, what are the likely returns for 12-18 months from now? I've got two and I was debating building one of them.....

    TRU appear to have eight left only online, this was at 23 yesterday afternoon. Not sure how many are in stores (or that they will 'find' elsewhere in the stockroom), but not many near me - so indications are it has almost gone from retail.

    Not convinced it will climb fast, from RRP at least, anecdotally it seems resellers picked up a lot at half price, plus no one seemed to want it when it was available. That probably argues for building one...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    edited November 2013
    Initially I think the BWing will sell well for those that got it on a better discount than 150, but that is it. Anyone trying to buy these at or near retail or even 150 and think they can flip em for 250-300 are going to be sorely disappointed.
    Will it go up over time? Sure I believe the Jedi Starfighter is even climbing a bit now, but it will take a while I think.
  • luckyrussluckyruss Member Posts: 872
    ^^ all gone online now at TRU in the UK, may still find a few in stores
  • LobotLobot Member Posts: 1,029
    Thanks everyone, I got my last one for £122 (30% off from [email protected] this weekend), so I might hang onto it for a bit and see what happens!

    I don't pretend to understand why certain sets sell well, whilst others don't; I'm looking at you #10212. It's one of the best UCS sets, and yet you can still get them on Ebay new for around £325-350 a year after it went EOL?
  • roxioroxio Member Posts: 1,384
    ^nothing wrong with £350 now when they were available at £155 from amazon.it
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    I think you'd be lucky to sell one for that much to be honest. A lot of the imperial shuttles that actually seem to be selling are going for around or just above RRP.
  • luckyrussluckyruss Member Posts: 872
    The B-wing was available in brand stores at 50% for a very short period (at the end of the European sale), but don't think they had many left in store for that - afaik that will be the lowest point of entry in the UK which may affect the marginal reseller at some point in the future.

    The dynamic in Europe may be a little different to the US too, given B-wing went on sale earlier in the US and disappeared quicker, but I suspect more will have sold for 50% off.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    edited November 2013
    B wing at 120 ish with vip points was a very solid buy imo. I think the bwing will surprise many.
  • sschmotzsschmotz Member Posts: 25
    littlepuppi said:

    B wing at 120 ish with vip points was a very solid buy imo.

    I agree, I was surprised at how much I enjoyed building it compared to the new UCS X-wing.



    Goldfreek
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    edited November 2013
    Not when LEGO had BWings for sale at 100 bucks on May 4, and people were still likely buying multiple copies. I only got one specifically because of this.
    Will it do well? Probably (as long as LEGO does not remake it in 2 years) but I doubt it is going to take off like the IS.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    I don't think 10212 has taken off to be honest. It looks like it will be mired at the $490 price point for many years. 1 year after EOL 10212 made it to $390. At a purchase price of $195 that is a 100% return.

    10227 I show will be at $274 1 year after EOL with a purchase price of $99 (but you did have to buy in May for that price). I would say 10227 is the better performer (but only due to the massive discount).
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    That may all be true, but I sold my B-Wings months ago for $200, so I turned a $80 profit each in less than 6 months. That isn't bad either... :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    10212 still has legs, think it will get to $600, or close to it, next year.

    For a low volume hobby reseller, it is the set to stick a pair of them in the closet and ignore them for a few years, then pull them out and sell them for a bunch.

    For someone like myself who had over 50 of them, I can't wait that long, I've already sold about 15 of them, another three dozen to go. But my average cost on those is close to $200, so I'm doing fine there as well.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    edited November 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    madforLEGO said:

    Are we really going to have a countdown for FB?

    Not yet, only down to 123, so it may take awhile...

    DS shows over 1,000 in stock...
    Only 96 FB's left, at this rate they will be down to zero in 3 or 4 days. Quicker than I thought, and at RRP too. Maybe the no discounts on exclusives is working out ok for TLG/Retailers.

    (Obviously more stock may be coming, either way 27 sold in a day or so on a 4 year old set at RRP is pretty impressive IMO.)
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Is there a new fire station in the 2014 city lineup?
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,633
    ^don't think so since we just got a new one at the start of '13
  • luckyrussluckyruss Member Posts: 872
    edited November 2013
    It'd be really interesting to me if there was a (preferably smaller) set with a dalmation in it in the 2014 lineup!
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    luckyruss said:

    It'd be really interesting to me if there was a (preferably smaller) set with a dalmation in it in the 2014 lineup!

    Does the 2013 advent calendar qualify as a "smaller" set?
  • luckyrussluckyruss Member Posts: 872
    It does - is there one in there? I have the calendar but haven't got into December yet so don't know!!
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Spoiler alert!
    jasor
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    Ah. Maybe? Perhaps I mistook for a dalmatian what was actually a decomposing zombie pit bull.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    The box art is a rather big spoiler for all the advent calendars.
    binaryeyepharmjod
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    Ahh, the advent calendars. I remember when those were actually a pretty goo value for the money, but now they are just a bit sad IMO
  • graphitegraphite Member Posts: 3,275
    ^ agreed. Last years star wars calendar is the first set so far that I've bought just the 2 minifigs out of that I wanted without buying the whole set to get them. I don't really collect just minifigs but I like having the unique ones so I make sure to get the sets they are in but even 50% off that calendar wasn't really worth it so I just bought maul and R2.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^Back in the day, those calendars could be had after Xmas at B&N and Borders for like $4...
    FollowsClosely
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    ^Don't spoil it for the newbies. They don't realize how good it used to be before the TLG crackdown. Right now 10% off and a free keychain at the B&M seems like heaven =P
    FollowsCloselypharmjodMathBuilderDougoutVaderXjasor
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks Member Posts: 1,367
    Is Jabba's Palace worth having a couple tucked away? It's pretty cheap right now, but I'm wondering if all of the frenzied buying earlier this year will hurt it's long term value. I tend to avoid Star Wars sets, simply because of all of the rehashes that end up coming along.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited November 2013
    ^At the current prices, I think a couple saved will do well, especially when paired with an equal number of Rancors. The minifgs in the set are just too good for this set to not do well eventually.

    And that's the magic word right? "Eventually" Like any set's appreciation in value, it depends critically on retirement. So, if Lego keep pumping out Jabbas for 5 years, you'll have to wait 6 to realize a profit, which would turn it into a bad investment.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    It also depends if the figures are updated and made better. New Jabba is way better than the old one. But can still be improved.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    I just don't see the movement on JP. After the initial scare with everyone thinking the set was doomed and TLG would quickly discontinue it I think it's had a slow progression to the back seat.

    I see this set holding value certainly but with so many revamps prevalent in this theme and with newer figures sure to pop up I doubt this set will be much more.
  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 Member Posts: 528
    ^Target has JP on sale right now for like $78 and change. Redcard takes off another 5% plus free shipping. I thought that was a good enough deal to grab one more
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