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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    It's about time to 'Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas Cottage'.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,113
    As much fun as we make of the FB...pauses a second for all to laugh, kick and scream....pausing.....OK, as much as we all make fun of FB and its seeming inability to retire, have we ever discussed the larger modular series as a whole? I mean, with so much vast success AND potential moving forward could this potentially be named one of the all time great series/themes/lines? If so shouldnt we all be loading up on extra MISB sets to sell/trade in the future? I for one heavily believe the modular series is amazing and will remain successful for quite some time leaving me to believe the secondary market will always treat the series well.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    I don't think anyone really doubts that, but the "rock" is how long you have to hold your FBs, and the "hard place" is the chance that Lego will remake something similar. It's not really an area I care to be in.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 972
    edited November 2013
    The FB will still beat the stock market for the first 3 years post retirement. Whenever that is. There is something special about a fire station, it will be a special set for a long time.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    OK guys for those who are looking to stock up on non-discountable exclusives and if you missed out on the deal for Amazon gift cards at 20% off then here is another goodish deal. Ebay will be selling $100 Target gift cards for $90 this BF. These are going to sell out very quickly so make sure you are ready at 12am EST Friday. These will stack with the 20% instore coupon if you are looking for regular sets they carry instore for 30% off.

    This will give you 10% off the non-discountable exclusives. Not quite as good as the Lego BF deal of triple VIP points, set 40083 and PAB box, but if you need volume and are afraid of getting blacklisted (or already are) then it is an option.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    The FB will still beat the stock market for the first 3 years post retirement. Whenever that is. There is something special about a fire station, it will be a special set for a long time.

    While as a general rule I tend to agree with you, I wouldn't consider it a "slam dunk" in this case.

    There are just so many of them out there, it will be awhile with people selling them for $200 w/shipping (which is just getting your funds back after fees/shipping) just trying to get their cash back.

    Time will tell. :)
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Is TRU's $30 deal on #75014 Battle of Hoth enough to make it a good pick up? I wouldn't touch it at $50-$60, would consider it at $40,.........buy all 8 on the shelf at $30. What do you guys think?
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    edited November 2013
    Also, I really need some advice. I posted this comment in another topic, but it is about a discontinued set and its value. I am about to buy #5986 Amazon Ancient Ruins. The seller claims that the box is open but the bags are sealed. Does anyone know a bag count for this set. Also I was thinking $160 value wise (I'm not paying that). Has anyone sold this set recently? Did it take long to move?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Trenth said:

    Is TRU's $30 deal on #75014 Battle of Hoth enough to make it a good pick up? I wouldn't touch it at $50-$60, would consider it at $40,.........buy all 8 on the shelf at $30. What do you guys think?

    For personal use, $30 is great. To stock up on? I'm not certain. The Hoth sets have been done to death at this point, and the Wampa Cave hasn't really gone anywhere... so if we consider the snowspeeder to be the main draw here...

    I'd say there are better, safer $30 sets I'd go to first, at least.
    FollowsClosely
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 369
    @doriansdad - what 20% in store coupon are you referring to for Target? I got a $5 off $50 for toys, and $5 off $29 for Lego coupons, but I haven't seen anything else. Thanks!
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Ronyar said:

    @doriansdad - what 20% in store coupon are you referring to for Target? I got a $5 off $50 for toys, and $5 off $29 for Lego coupons, but I haven't seen anything else. Thanks!

    If you spend $75 instore or online at Target on BF you will receive a 20% off coupon to use on your entire purchase (instore only) good for Dec 1-7.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    Is anyone buying Galaxy Squad to resell? I haven't bought any yet since space themes haven't done particularly well in the past, but there is something about them that keeps making me rethink that decision.

  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 502
    ^I really like the GS series, so have bought them all for my own collection. I don't really see them doing well for re-sale though, except for possibly the Galactic Titan (and that's pretty iffy). I think if you look at the 50%+ sales for a lot of the sets earlier this year, that's generally a good indication of lack of interest. I know my Target literally had stacks of the bug obliterator at 50% off.
    margot
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    I'll Pass on GS. I do not see anything more special here than SPIII and I have also been buying way too much TLR to get any crazier with another line that will be average at best.
    The difference is though I can use the TLR parts for a lot more stuff for MOC builds.
    FollowsCloselyprevere
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    ^TLR is way better on the part per $ ratio and more figs per set ratio than GS.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Just left TRU, they have Batcaves on the shelf again. O_o
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    I can the Batcave lingering into mid-2014. That set is made for Xmas.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited November 2013
    prevere said:

    When it comes to cash-dropping on hobbies, Dads are crazy and Moms aren't.

    Speak for myself...ur...I mean yourself.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    bp10030 said:

    WV Cottage #10229 already listed with 'Call to check product availability' on [email protected] europe. Not expected that so early!

    They had those for $70 after Christmas at the Frisco store in TX. I snagged a couple to give the kids some time down the road.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    Yeah, I picked up a few when they were on sale and LEGO store was trying to unload them. Kinda wish I picked up a few more.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited November 2013
    WV Cottage #10229 is now "Sold Out" on all EU based [email protected] sites, this includes Australia and New Zealand, only available in North America. I realise this does not mean 100% that it is gone for good, but I'm glad I picked this up on Tuesday from a local store.
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
    So a good friend of mine just moved to London and is willing to pick up any items unique to the European market. Just one problem, what items ARE unique to Europe?
  • MathBuilderMathBuilder Member Posts: 150
    ^I think it is way too late now. But if he could have gotten his hands on some Batman and H.Deep Games then that would have been a great acquisition.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    @mooman66 Star Wars Planets Series 4 are only found there for now.
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
    Thanks for the input. Hopefully between the shell promo and series 4 she can put a nice package together.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    edited November 2013
    I think it is very odd that Target online is selling sets at secondary market prices. For example they have the Quinjet for $84.99, the original Minecraft for $48.99, and the small Captain America set for $27.99. I've been reselling Lego for few years now and can't ever recall Target selling Lego online at secondary market prices, but maybe I've just been blind. What do you all make of this? Is Target getting in on the secondary Lego market? This all seems very strange to me lol
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ It is interesting... TRU has done it for a long time now, why not Target? Just wait, Amazon will figure this one out too. :)

    It does mean that there will be less room for us. After all, if they all over order to keep stock for an extra year or two, it will change and move the market greatly.

    It would not be hard for Target/Amazon/Walmart to easily order more "surplus" stock than all the resellers combined, which would crush the market for reseller profits outright.

    Will they? Probably not, but they can do it any time they want to.
  • joch29joch29 Member Posts: 15
    ^ I'm not sure if retailer can do that. If I recall correctly one of the terms LEGO has when you purchase wholesale, is that you have to sell all of the retiring models.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    TRU in the past few years has had stock of this or that for months after EOL. I've seen them elsewhere too. To this day, my local Barns & Nobel still has a few Kingdom and Atlantis sets on the shelf.

    If you think about what you typed, it doesn't really make sense. They can only sell what customers will buy, if they end up with 10,000 extra copies of a set at the EOL date, they will simple take time to move, even at RRP, sometimes even on sale.

    If you were around for the PoP days, you'd recall that a lot of stores had trouble moving them even for 50% off. To this day, years post retirement, those sets (with one or two exceptions) still sell for below RRP.

    Other sets like Minecraft? Clearly those will move in volume above RRP, Target seems to be taking advantage of that.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    edited November 2013
    I'm starting to think Target, Walmart, and even KMart are matching Amazon now rather than it be the other way around. Why is target selling the Captain America set for 27.99? Because that is probably what it was selling for on Amazon at the time the price was set. I've been watching some LotR set prices for a few weeks now on Amazon. I was surprised to see some of the sets similarly priced on the kmart and target sites.
    FollowsClosely
  • luckyrussluckyruss UKMember Posts: 872
    Whilst it's possible the big retailers could completely swamp the aftermarket if they wanted to, my understanding of the way most retailers work is by volume / speed of turnover, and that the model doesn't really make sense if you have to hold stock for a long period of time. Whilst the buyers are typically incentivised on the profit made from sales of their items, the store managers are typically incentivised (or penalised) based on the stock left on the shelves.

    TRU does seem to be in its own space on this one, whereby they do continue to stock stuff for a long time after official EOL, selling at or around RRP and don't seem to care about cleaning out old stock. I still see the occasional PoP set in my local even now! My sense is that this means it stays on the shelves until either finally one or two folk decide they do want one (having not bought it for the previous 2-3 yrs when it was available everywhere) or that the aftermarket price shows signs of rising above RRP sufficient to justify resellers buying in.

    The amazon model makes a lot of sense, ie use a marketplace to sell the EOL items so that you can still show stock, and take a hefty cut of the sale price, but using someone else to front up the capital and the cost of storing the merchandise for whatever period it takes.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,730
    luckyruss said:

    Whilst it's possible the big retailers could completely swamp the aftermarket if they wanted to, my understanding of the way most retailers work is by volume / speed of turnover, and that the model doesn't really make sense if you have to hold stock for a long period of time. Whilst the buyers are typically incentivised on the profit made from sales of their items, the store managers are typically incentivised (or penalised) based on the stock left on the shelves.

    Yes, it would take direction from corporate to make this change. And they could if they wanted to. The volume required for storing lego is reasonably low for the price it can return.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    Plus you've got a whole bunch of specialty toy websites popping up that also sell at secondary market prices. More options for the buyer are great who have tight budgets.

    As mentioned above, I do think the physical big box retailers are price-matching Amazon on their overstock. But I do think this will more or less only affect fringe investment sets.

    Sets like the VW Camper, HH or UCS R2D2 won't have that problem.
  • fizicystfizicyst Member Posts: 72
    CircleK said:

    I'm starting to think Target, Walmart, and even KMart are matching Amazon now rather than it be the other way around. Why is target selling the Captain America set for 27.99? Because that is probably what it was selling for on Amazon at the time the price was set. I've been watching some LotR set prices for a few weeks now on Amazon. I was surprised to see some of the sets similarly priced on the kmart and target sites.

    @CircleK this is exactly what has been going on for a few months now. I am pretty sure it is all automated and supposed to ensure that each is offering the lowest price or at least within a few cents of the lowest price. The problem that often arises is when Amazon.com sells out and a 3rd party seller pops up in that spot, Target latches onto that price instead and moves the price up to some absurd amount (usually when Walmart.com no longer has the item listed). I also have a personal suspicion (with no evidence) that it may have been this sort of automated program that caused the big Walmart.com glitch. It looked like it latched onto a certain low price and a certain high price for items in a specific category and changed most things in that category to one of those two prices. For LEGO sets, it was $10.99 as the low price and $369.99 (or thereabouts) as the high price. Whole lines seemed to be affected (e.g., all hobbit/LOTR sets or all TLR), while other lines were unaffected (like superheroes). The danger with automating this stuff is any of the other stores can sabotage your program if they figure out the IP address of the computer doing the price searching. At any rate, keep an eye out for future glitches to occur before someone catches on that major price adjustments need to be reviewed.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    prevere said:

    Plus you've got a whole bunch of specialty toy websites popping up that also sell at secondary market prices. More options for the buyer are great who have tight budgets.

    They usually sell waaay above bl/ebay prices, hardly an option for those with tight budgets. More fitting for rich ones that want no fuss.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    ^Yup. Although a domino effect may be that the small-time casual resellers will have to dump stock on eBay or BL and you can grab what you need from those people. Already seeing that every day now with collection dumps needed to generate cash.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    edited November 2013
    LEGO [email protected] in US has #6857 Funhouse sold out now
    #9473 Mines of Moria also listed as call for availability
    Pitfall69
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    There is a lot of reselling competition now. Moderately high profits seem unsustainable for many sets in the future. Prices will rise in the aftermarket, but it may be a better idea to only do it for hobby purposes and better spend your time with real stocks or making money elsewhere. Just my opinion of course.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Agreed. Tons of discounts right now but I find myself buying very little compared to the last couple years. The only thing I'm biting on right now is 40-50%. This is the slowest year I've ever had selling.

    It also doesn't help that Ebay has capped how much I can sell this year. I've never had this happen before. Consequently, I have a lot of sets sitting that I could be selling right now . . .
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    How much have they allowed you to sell?, mine has just been increased to £40k a month
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^^Right, I'm definitely only picking up $100 and under sets if they are 50% off or more and maybe not even then. I'm disappointed I grabbed a couple Gobling King Battle's a couple months ago at Target.

    With the exclusives not being discounted anymore, the $100 sets seem to be getting more discounts instead. Small profits to be had for most of these sets in the next couple years.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    luckyruss said:

    Whilst it's possible the big retailers could completely swamp the aftermarket if they wanted to, my understanding of the way most retailers work is by volume / speed of turnover, and that the model doesn't really make sense if you have to hold stock for a long period of time. Whilst the buyers are typically incentivised on the profit made from sales of their items, the store managers are typically incentivised (or penalised) based on the stock left on the shelves.

    This is generally true for retail stores.

    Is Target.com a retail store or an online retailer?

    They might be trying something new, after all, the rules that have worked for a long time in brick and mortar stores might need some adjusting for a web site store. After all, the cost to carry long tail items in a retail store is high, the cost to carry them in a cheap warehouse located in very low rent locations, not nearly as high.

    Companies like Target can borrow money for almost nothing right now, I looked up Amazon a few months ago, they sell bonds that yield less than 1% interest for 2 years. If I could borrow money at that rate, five or ten million worth of soon to be retired product would be an interesting investment.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898

    LEGO [email protected] in US has #6857 Funhouse sold out now
    #9473 Mines of Moria also listed as call for availability

    Funhouse is only $60 at TRU online now. Haha. ($63 on Amazon).
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    luckyruss said:

    The amazon model makes a lot of sense, ie use a marketplace to sell the EOL items so that you can still show stock, and take a hefty cut of the sale price, but using someone else to front up the capital and the cost of storing the merchandise for whatever period it takes.

    Amazon makes money there as well.

    Amazon Lending, LLC

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/10/05/amazon-wades-into-lending-to-drive-market-place-sales/

    They lend money to sellers to stock up on inventory, at a healthy profit margin of 12.9% interest (since Amazon can borrow money for almost nothing on the bond markets)

    They offer 6 months to repay and take the monthly payments due out of your seller funds from you Amazon sales. The amount they will lend depends on your sales volume on Amazon.

    There are terms, not really enforceable, but they are there... That require that you use the money to buy inventory to sell on Amazon. For which they make 15% on as well. :)

    What a racket! :)
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Too bad Funhouse Escape sold out at [email protected] Was waiting for BF to swoop in and buy them up. Hopefully they get them back in but it is not looking good. Certainly not going to touch them at $60 thru TRU lol.
  • luckyrussluckyruss UKMember Posts: 872
    ^ thanks - so more correctly they charge someone else for fronting up the capital and then charge them 15% to sell it again. So I'm selling my Lego, and instructing my broker...!
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited November 2013
    So, if I understand correctly, one would need to clear a 27.9% just to break even if you borrow from Amazon? This assumes the money borrowed from Amazon is used exclusively for inventory, and that no additional costs were incurred procuring that inventory (which, obviously, are never going to be $0). Geez, good luck trying to profit there!
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,113
    I think another angle, albeit likely just a sliver; is that with the rise in popularity of the product, with the chatter about all this, I.E. this very forum and others similar, that people are quite simply just buying more LEGO. With that, and continued sluggish and limping economies around the world people are looking for good deals CONSTANTLY. So all these big retailers are driving down price and still selling well. Consequently, more and more people have LEGO and realize they dont want to bother paying aftermarket prices.

    I feel mostly bad for those that have invested a lot of time, energy and/or money into reselling as the landscape may be changing. Whether this is permanent or not we have yet to see but from what I see in the comments above many are saying this is their hardest year yet.

    Ultimately, it could still all be FB's fault..
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    nkx1 said:

    So, if I understand correctly, one would need to clear a 27.9% just to break even if you borrow from Amazon? This assumes the money borrowed from Amazon is used exclusively for inventory, and that no additional costs were incurred procuring that inventory (which, obviously, are never going to be $0). Geez, good luck trying to profit there!

    More or less... Do keep in mind that the 12.9% is an annual rate, if you sell stuff sooner (which is what Amazon really expects) you won't pay that in interest.

    In retail you generally want two to four "turns" of your entire inventory per year. Great retailers do 6 turns. That is hard to do with retired LEGO.

    We make up for the lack of returns with higher margins than retail normally gets, but yes, fees and interest can eat those up.

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Star-Wars-Droid-Escape/dp/B005KISGI0/

    Take that set... It is retiring this year and it appears that Amazon has now run out of its own stock. The listed seller at the time I write this is offering it for $30.82 with free shipping.

    Great you say, that set retailed for $19.99, that is a 50% profit margin in just a few weeks! Wahoo!

    Yea, not really. The seller has to ship that, and it doesn't fit into a small priority mail flat rate box, but you could do a flat rate envelope I suppose. It will cost $5 to $10 to ship, depending on where it goes and how you pack it. (You could try first class mail in a bubble envelope, but you'll get crushed box complaints.)

    Now, Amazon will take $4.62 for their 15% fee leaving you with $26.20. Whatever it costs you to ship it, that is what you have left.

    Assuming that you have no returns, buyers on amazon can return within 30 days for any reason, if it is damaged in shipment, you have to pay return shipping. (Hence the problem with bubble envelopes)

    So if you paid retail for the set, you're really breaking even, worse if you borrowed money to do it.

    If you paid $20% off for that set, you might make $4, assuming that shipping isn't too much, no returns, no lost packages (yea, you pay for those too unless you buy insurance), etc.

    Boy, what a way to make a living! :)

    Frankly, to make it worth it, you have to wait until that set is selling for double retail, then you need a few hundred of them, one or two is more a waste of time and attention.

    The problem comes when 5 or 10 other sellers have a hundred or two each, it can sit at $30 for awhile, or go up, you just never know.

    Right now there are 90 sellers with listings, more may be waiting in the wings, some of one sellers have 1 or 2 copies, a few have hundreds.
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