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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty CanadaMember Posts: 547
    Did hell freeze over?

    I was browsing brickpicker and saw Construct-a-Zurg is #1 performer over the past 6 months on their BrickIndex

    Wishing I would have went all in on that one.

    http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/brickindex.cfm
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Wow Terapeak Data is certainly worth the investment lol....keep up the great work guys!
  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 502
    I don't get it...the chart shows a 50% increase from $10 to $15...but then shows you can buy it from Amazon for $10. Guess I'm just to unsofisticated to unerstand
    FollowsClosely
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Anyone have any ideas why the Mindstorms NXT 2.0 is doing so well? I have a used one and would love to get rid of it, but the way it is performing now makes me think it may be better to save it for a bit.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Just dumb buyers, perhaps.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    TMNT Baxter Robot Rampage has been going in and out of stock for awhile and is now sold out on US [email protected] for what it's worth. This set is the only TMNT set that includes the April minifig I believe. Not sure how I feel about the TMNT line. I loved TMNT growing up, but none of the sets in this line have a big wow factor in my opinion.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    ^I think TMNT willl take the route of Toy Story or Prince of Persia from a value standpoint.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    ^^ Yes. I Agree. Aboslutely no value in my eyes other than some unique colors.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I feel the same way about the TMNT sets. Loved the toys from the 90's. I did get the 4 Lego turtle figures separately though as I thought they did a good job with them.
  • leego76leego76 Chandlers FordMember Posts: 360
    TMNT = Figs good, sets terrible. Either way, they will perform better in the states than in the UK too, but tgat's mot saying much as they've been discounted consistently since they've been out here
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    edited November 2013
    Any thoughts on "THE" hot set for Xmas? Thinking maybe 3.0 Mindstorms.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    I'm expecting MMV to surge. :P
  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty CanadaMember Posts: 547
    prevere said:

    Any thoughts on "THE" hot set for Xmas? Thinking maybe 3.0 Mindstorms.

    Last year the Epic Dragon was hot and sold out everywhere. This year I think kids are in between Ninjago and Chima. I'm not sure if the shelves are going to get cleared on any set in either of those themes.

    Minecraft is hot, I imagine there will be tonnes under the tree on the 25th.

    I've seen Mindstorms on the morning shows the last couple weeks. It would be great if it's the must have set for this Christmas. What was the 2.0 launch like?






  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,716


    Minecraft is hot, I imagine there will be tonnes under the tree on the 25th.

    That may be, but it also seems to be reasonably well supplied this year. I somehow doubt prices will surge like last year.
  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Help me, I'm inside the M25! (UK)Member Posts: 1,360
    Funny how the 'hot Lego Xmas present' topic has showed up: I heard on the radio the other day that the 'hot' set everybody will want was... #60014 Coast Guard Patrol.

    Now that, I think, is an interesting choice, choosing that over the flagship Ninjago, Chima and Star Wars sets.

    Just something I happened to hear the other day! :-)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    ^Happy to see City get big play.

    I'm not one to target in production sets that go out of stock and boost the price for that tiny Xmas window in early December. That's a like finding a Technic pin in a haystack.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    edited November 2013
    I think the SW OT Tatooine sets seem to be the in demand. In my travels over the last 2 weeks, it seems that Sailbarge and JP seem to be doing well.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    edited November 2013
    prevere said:

    ^Happy to see City get big play.

    I'm not one to target in production sets that go out of stock and boost the price for that tiny Xmas window in early December. That's a like finding a Technic pin in a haystack.

    I think it trains were cheaper then you would probably see the cargo train on that list.

    I'm just curious to see what sells out before BF that is likely due to go, as I'm guessing whatever is left on BF that is EOL LEGO will discount it to move it out the door.

    Also a bit curious as to what Target is going to be selling for 40% off for two big LEGO sets, if they do that this year that is.
  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty CanadaMember Posts: 547
    I was in a Target the other day casually looking for a series 11 scarecrow when an older couple (grandparents) came up to me asking if I knew what Lego Friends was. I showed them the Friends section in the girls isle and was followed by another father who was also looking for friends. I basically cleared out the regular Lego isle once the shoppers found the friends sets.

    I wonder how well Friends is doing. I wonder if there will be and which set of the original launch is going to be the sleeper. Olivia's House is a "Doll House" if they don't come out with a replacement house soon I could see that one climbing. but is there a market that will pay a premium for a retired set, or will they just buy whatever's current?

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    When it comes to cash-dropping on hobbies, Dads are crazy and Moms aren't.
    FollowsClosely
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I bet the new Friends Dolphin Cruiser will be a hit among that age group this Christmas. A couple of sets from the original launch are already getting sky-high prices in the aftermarket; Butterfly Beauty Shop and Heartlake Dog Show, anyway. They were only available for about a year, and that pretty-much explains their rise.

    I predict there's nothing currently available that will even get close to those gains, but the Flying Club is a WalMart exclusive, and Horse Trailer is a Target exclusive, and those 2 could see aftermarket gains IF they retire at the end of this year. Oh, and the Summer Riding Camp is a TRU exclusive, which could do well, but only if it retires this year.

    Heartlake Stables and Heartlake Vet are both showing as sold out at [email protected] I predict they won't stay that way, and will be back in stock, but I bet that Olivia's Tree House is already gone, and will remain sold out. Just guessing!

    But some of the current sets are Toys of the Year winners, and if the decision were mine, I would keep producing them indefinitely, until demand seems to dry up. Purely speculation, but I predict the iconic Olivia's House will be with us for a long time, despite it being discounted at times.

    It's already been said in this thread, and I agree, that they keep making similar items and this keeps the older sets from becoming very valuable. Oh, and I wouldn't load up on Dolphin Cruisers, either. That will be a big Christmas seller, but the supply/demand equation is shifting; bad news for resellers. We already see the manufacturer doing a better job of meeting demand in all their themes, and those attempting to resell currently-available sets for the holidays will probably have a hard time of it. Sorry to sound like Ebenezer Scrooge, and, of course, I could be wrong! I have no inside information, but am seldom short of an opinion on any subject.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Olivia's Tree House would have done very well if it had retired last year, but it has now been out 2 years, which kills it for rapid increases in value, too many are stockpiled now.

    Olivia's House would have blown through the roof had it retired last year, as it is I see it at $100 next year, but no better due to the huge number of them out there now.

    Plus, I see both sets being replaced next year with something new, for sure they'll have another "house" set.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    Interesting, For US [email protected]:
    Orc Forge is available again
    Uruk hai Army and Helms Deep are showing as sold out though.
    TLR Cavalry builder set is also sold out.
    Garbage truck is set to call for availability
    Halloween set is sold out
    margot
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    Must have found a stash of Orc forge in warehouse
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    edited November 2013
    ^^Thanks for the head's up on the Orc Forge, I was hoping it would come back.
  • herekittykittyherekittykitty Member Posts: 122
    prevere said:

    When it comes to cash-dropping on hobbies, Dads are crazy and Moms aren't.

    I take it you are not familiar with American Girl, Lalaloopsy, Monster High, Barbie, etc.? Those all have huge resale markets, presumably largely driven by moms (or adult collectors).

    That said, I think if they keep putting out Friends sets at the rate they are, there will be enough of them currently available that most people will be satisfied, since so far all of the buildings are following the doll house model.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,716
    edited November 2013
    ^ Yes, Friends is becoming a new "City" line but aimed at girls. I expect them to recycle / reuse quite a bit. So if you miss one set, there will be a similar set in two years so no need to pay crazy aftermarket prices to get something once it has been redone. At least if it is for play rather than for a collect-them-all collection.
  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 423
    Any thoughts on the following that are now sold out, either in US or UK

    #9526 Palpatines Arrest
    #6857 Funhouse Escape
    #79105 Baxter Rampage
    #75014 Battle of Hoth

    I have also noticed that these are all TRU exclusives here in the UK.
  • joel4motionjoel4motion United KingdomMember Posts: 959

    Any thoughts on the following that are now sold out, either in US or UK


    #6857 Funhouse

    #6857 minfigs have been selling collectively for a big enough price to cover the RRP so I hope it continues to do well. I guess it makes a massive difference that Amazon never had it and in turn could never discount it though. Are any of the minifigs due in 2014's wave?


  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty CanadaMember Posts: 547

    Any thoughts on the following that are now sold out, either in US or UK


    #6857 Funhouse

    #6857. Are any of the minifigs due in 2014's wave?
    #76012 will have the Riddler, although it looks like a different colored hat so this version may still be exclusive. Batman, Robin and the joker weren't exclusive to #6857, so that leaves Harley Quinn.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,716
    edited November 2013
    ^ It's a different torso too for the Riddler.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    CCC said:

    ^ Yes, Friends is becoming a new "City" line but aimed at girls. I expect them to recycle / reuse quite a bit. So if you miss one set, there will be a similar set in two years so no need to pay crazy aftermarket prices to get something once it has been redone. At least if it is for play rather than for a collect-them-all collection.

    I am expecting the new Disney Princess line to outperform Friends. I don't see them rehashing Princess too often if at all. To me the Friends sets all look the same. The Dolphin Cruiser looks cool but I just can't get my head around the rest of the lineup in terms of collectability.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Friends will have some standouts, just as City does. There are a few sets in City every year that do better than others, but most are just... meh...

    Dolphin Cruiser is one of those sets, it should do well long term, assuming it isn't out for too long. If it stays out for 2 years, I'd expect to see it around $100 a year post retirement. If you buy it on sale close to retirement (not now of course) for about $55 or so which is what it has been going for, then you'll do fine with it.

    There are a bunch of "ifs" in that statement however. :)

    I think the Heartlake High will do well, they'll do another school at some point, but we've been overdue for a school for a long time, until another one is done, there is a window of time after that one goes, it could see $100 as well a year post retirement.

    Most of them? Yea, nothing special, the $10-20 sets? Endlessly replaced... The first wave had a few good ones (Beauty Shop, Dog Show), but then that was the first wave and we haven't had many rehashes yet. Give it a year and you'll start to see more and more of the same.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    edited November 2013
    I got a notification from TRU reporting that 41999 was back in stock, but that was unfortunately about 40 minutes ago and it is showing as sold out. Anyone else get such a notification from TRU? I am wondering if it was legit or if TRUs system is acting up again.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,716
    tmgm528 said:

    One must wonder why they felt the need to throw "Romantic" In the Name I may never know.

    It's so they can get 17 (or however many) hearts in it.

    But I agree Princesses will outperform Friends. (1) It's licensed and (2) presumably they will not repeat the minifigs.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited November 2013

    I got a notification from TRU reporting that 41999 was back in stock, but that was unfortunately about 40 minutes ago and it is showing as sold out. Anyone else get such a notification from TRU? I am wondering if it was legit or if TRUs system is acting up again.

    Thanks for the heads-up. I added one to my cart, entered my credit card info and checked "proceed", and was taken to a blank page. Order didn't go through. Oh well.

    This new offering from TRU should further depress ebay prices. A good thing for buyers, not so good for resellers.
  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 502
    ^41999 has also popped up at brand stores in the past few weeks, but may be gone now.
  • bitsathisbitsathis Member Posts: 140
    I have a pile of £15 vouchers from the last promo and i will be spending them on these items!!

    Any thoughts on the following that are now sold out, either in US or UK

    #9526 Palpatines Arrest
    #6857 Funhouse Escape
    #79105 Baxter Rampage
    #75014 Battle of Hoth

    I have also noticed that these are all TRU exclusives here in the UK.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405

    Any thoughts on the following that are now sold out, either in US or UK

    #9526 Palpatines Arrest
    #6857 Funhouse Escape
    #79105 Baxter Rampage
    #75014 Battle of Hoth

    I have also noticed that these are all TRU exclusives here in the UK.

    Sold out where? The Funhouse, Battle of Hoth is still available at US [email protected] Palpatines Arrest is not sold out but out of stock.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I think the aftermarket potential for Palpatine's Arrest, Baxter Rampage, and Battle of Hoth, are all poor. Funhouse Escape should do well, unless it's with us through the end of 2014. Battle of Hoth seems an okay set, but there has been a flood of similar sets for a long, long time and I think demand has dried up. Hoth has been done to death, at all price points. If you're looking to resell later, buyer beware.
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    The funhouse is showing as sold out at [email protected] UK. The batcave is also now showing as call for availability. Take from that what you wish.
  • chrisdojochrisdojo Member Posts: 168
    edited November 2013
    Gavin83 said:

    The funhouse is showing as sold out at [email protected] UK. The batcave is also now showing as call for availability. Take from that what you wish.

    Items sell out from time to time. Without the "Retiring Soon" label, it just means they will manufacture another load.

    Come to think of it... "Retiring Soon" doesn't seem to mean much either :D
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 220
    I think Baxter's Robot Rampage will be a winner.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    ^ I don't see how Baxter can be a winner, it's impossibly fugly.
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 220
    edited November 2013
    vitreolum said:

    ^ I don't see how Baxter can be a winner, it's impossibly fugly.

    April and Baxter are exclusive to this set and the robot is pretty great. Yes, I've built it and my 5 year old loves to rampage with it.

  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Maybe it's just me, but from the pictures and box I can easily put this in the top 10 ugliest sets ever made. This is purely based on aesthetics though, might be a fun set to build (and play with), I can't speak for that as I haven't done it.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I saw a "retiring soon" sign on a #9495 Gold Leader's Y-Wing Starfighter today at a Lego store. Their website doesn't show it as retiring soon. My take is they must have a ton of those to move. Remember Olivia's Speedboat? It's been "retiring soon" for a year now. Soon, hell.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    vitreolum said:

    Maybe it's just me, but from the pictures and box I can easily put this in the top 10 ugliest sets ever made. This is purely based on aesthetics though, might be a fun set to build (and play with), I can't speak for that as I haven't done it.

    This is actually one of two sets in the TMNT line that I didn't think was unbelievably bad. The robot itself is stupid looking due to the source material, but it's a fun build.

    As for the line itself, I wouldn't dismiss its short term potential (provided this initial wave goes away, that is). Specifically, I can see the Shredder set appreciating nicely if Shredder somehow doesn't show up in one of the second wave sets.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    #9468 is back in stock on [email protected] You can get 99 if you want.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    WV Cottage #10229 already listed with 'Call to check product availability' on [email protected] europe. Not expected that so early!
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