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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Have you figured out what class you are yet? ;)
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,113
    Business
  • BrikingBriking Dorset, UKMember Posts: 757
    ^^I haven't stopped working yet, so I suppose that makes me wo.....
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Have you figured out what class you are yet? ;)

    As DS9 fan, it will always be Defiant class ;)
    richl
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,117
    The last couple seasons of DS9 were sooo good. I loved the whole Dominion war and the Klingon civil war. Way more action packed the STNG.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Did I just start another "Red 5 Standing By"? ;)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002

    I do not see the Batman DC and Marvel Licenses causing LEGO to churn out set after set and line after line.
    If they keep making games? Sure but if a JL movie comes out do you think they will keep putting out Batman only sets? I would be surprised if they did, same with Marvel. Unless Avengers is having another movie soon (which I do not think is happening anytime soon) then I'm guessing you are not seeing another Hulk fig for a while, same with Iron man once that line fades away.
    If movies are made then the LEGO lines will reflect those movies.
    So I see more Thor related sets, and probably X-Men: Days of Future past, which will be interesting (then again they did not do an X-Men First Class line)
    So it will be interesting to see what comes out, but judging from the other license lines (Including Harry Potter line) I do not see LEGO bucking from that tradition of 2 lines then it goes away. It does not mean they have lost the license, it just means they may stop lines at times, or shift to another feature of the DC and Marvel universes, and Marvel is just insane they can go in all sorts of directions with Marvel. As for DC? The real bread and butter is really Batman Superman and JL.
    I just do ont see LEGO making line after line of these two lines unless something is in the limelight and even so then the sets will be based on that movie or game.

    I think the problem here is the DC Universe. It simply lacks the depth of the Marvel Universe, so even though you probably could put out unique Marvel sets for years on end (driven by the minifigs, anyway), the same can't be said for DC, unless you stray away from the Batman/Superman sets... and non-Batman/Superman DC traditionally sells EXTREMELY poorly.

    Still, I don't see this theme going anywhere any time soon. Even if the Marvel side has to carry it, there's no reason they couldn't keep churning out Batman sets and keep selling them. I mean, in general, the sets in the Super Heroes line are pretty terrible, so I just see them as sets slapped together to sell figs for another licensed theme.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    Thanos75 said:

    The last couple seasons of DS9 were sooo good. I loved the whole Dominion war and the Klingon civil war. Way more action packed the STNG.

    Agreed. Although I am still not 100% on board with the whole Section 31 thing. Having them as Bashir's favorite pass time was one thing, but making them the Deus ex machina of the Dominion war was a bit too dark, imho. Did Earth / the Federations really sanction an organization more secretive and sadistic than the Tal Shiar ? It made the Federations no better than the Romulans or the Cardassians, ready to wipe out an entire race to win a war.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Groups of people (such as the Federation) unwilling to create organizations like Section 31 generally cease to exist.

    It isn't nice, but that is the way it is.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Cork, IrelandMember Posts: 950
    y2josh said:

    I mean, in general, the sets in the Super Heroes line are pretty terrible, so I just see them as sets slapped together to sell figs for another licensed theme.

    Agree with that. For the vast majority of sets that have come out I've been straight onto BL to see how much the minifigs are. I'm sort of okay with it though, because I'm already conflicted between keeping minifigs with some of the better sets (like Dynamic Duo Funhouse Escape) or displaying all the minifigs together.
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    Uruk-Hai Army 9471 looks to be sold out almost everywhere online. I know it and Helms Deep were scheduled to go but its been a very vague, slow wind down. Looks like it may be gone though.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    It sure took awhile. I'm not sure how it will do after it is officially gone.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,707
    Pitfall69 said:

    It sure took awhile. I'm not sure how it will do after it is officially gone.

    It will be a slow gainer, like much of what is going to be retired from the past few years that was licensed, with an exception being the Maersk train, and pirate ships from PoTC I believe.
    Though I will say that even london escape and the mill seem to be rising a bit (at least if you bought them discounted) but I think it will be a slow riser.
    I see both doing fairly well though, seeing as the UruK Hai set is both an army builder and Helms deep builder. Obviously better if you got them on discount.
    But again unless you have 20-30 of these around and got them for 20 or under I do not see people rolling in the money on these.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    So Helm's Deep sells out on [email protected] and Amazon discounts further, yet still not sold out. What does that say?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Amazon is just getting rid of their stock. I don't think Helms Deep will last til Christmas. I'm still pondering whether I should grab another one. It will be a slow mover just like Uruk Hai, but I think if you sell them as a bundle you might make out better.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Helm's Deep has been available many times for $70-$80. I don't think anyone would buy for $111 to resell. After fees these will net $130. Waste of time at $111 IMO.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405

    Helm's Deep has been available many times for $70-$80. I don't think anyone would buy for $111 to resell. After fees these will net $130. Waste of time at $111 IMO.

    I was thinking for myself :)

    FollowsClosely
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 964
    I have around 20 I think... but have yet to build one. That makes me a bit sad. It has been way too long since I have purchased a set to build. The Parisian Restaurant may break my fast. Oh @doriansdad, I got a majority of them at Target for $72.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I broke down and bought 2 HE's to build. I haven't built a set like this in awhile. I haven't the space for Helms Deep, but I'm working on clearing out some space soon :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,707
    I have been waffling as to building a HH that is in a beat up box from Amazon Warehouse, so it was pretty much already opened.
    I just know though that if I build it I do not have a lot of open space now to display it and I know I will need to dismantle it eventually.
    That and I will want to then convert it into a 'normal' old mansion :)
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 867
    I've stockpiled quite a few sets over the past 6 months but haven't had a chance to build anything with our newborn (who also arrived 6 months ago). The most I've been able to do to satisfy my LEGO fix is break them open to assemble the minifigs. I have quite a stockpile waiting for me whenever my daughter decides to start actually sleeping through the night . . . .
    Pitfall69FollowsCloselyVortexYellowcastle
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    How do people think the #10227 UCS B-Wing'll do? Looking at brickpicker it seems to be on a modest up-tick: http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=10227-1 Is this lower than or about on the mark with other UCS sets soon after their retirement? I thought it was pretty maligned myself and was quite impressed by it, but will that less than fully enthusiastic reception limit its growth in the long term? Certainly that was the fate of another maligned UCS set, the #10215.

    It's still knocking around ebay for well under the $350 retail price tag where I live (Australia) and I'm wondering whether I should be more enthusiastically buying it up post-EOL.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited October 2013
    Unless you can get these cheap, and I mean cheap I wouldn't bother as this set will take ages to go up IMO. The US were offered these at 50% off ($99.99) earlier in the year. I'm pretty sure your going to have trouble getting these for under $200-$220 shipped to Australia. So from the out set you are going to have a hellava a big disadvantage.

    The fact that the US got these so cheap means that a lot more are in the hands of resellers than would have been if they were never discounted more then 10%-20%. So this set will be a long climb to any price point where you will make any money on it. I wouldn't be surprise that in 2-3 years time you will still be able to pick the B-Wing up for less than the AU retail of $350.
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 971
    I'm in two minds about it.

    On the one hand it should do better than 10215 (which wouldn't be difficult!) as it's OT so it should appeal to older fans with more disposable income. However, it doesn't seem to have sold well, and was on offer at 50% off back in May so there's bound to be a lot stockpiled.

    I ordered one recently and it does look far better than any photos that I'd previously seen of it. It's quite a nice model and seems underrated to me, but it's hardly iconic..... it could be another 10174.

  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    And the "Up tick" you mentioned on brickpricker is most likely because the novice resellers who needed to dump their $100 B-Wings quickly have done so. I know I had seen some offerd for only $120-$130 a few months ago.
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    Hmmm all sounds like good advice, I bought one recently that I now may just build for my own enjoyment, not having build lego out of the box for years.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    UCS B-Wing isn't going anywhere fast... I've already sold all my copies that I ended up with (which wasn't many), other than the one left in the box to build.

    It will slowly climb, but then so do most sets, even the lousy ones (Home One excepted of course).
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    BTW, this is way off topic, but since this thread has done that before, I'm going to risk it...



    I thought that was totally worth sharing. Katy Perry had a contest where High Schools could enter a video to win a concert with her singing at their school for charity. Over 1,000 videos were submitted and that was the winner.

    They did one practice take, then the one you see in the video, amazing what happens when all the students from a school can come together, I found it very cool.

    Even more cool, the whole thing is done without cuts, a single long take over 4 min long.
    cardgenius
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    10227 will have some legs. Should be an easy $200 USD the day it eols. Worth $360 for those who want to part it out. I would expect it to hit $250 - $275 one year after EOL. Excellent return if you snagged them for $80 (after points, cashback, Hoth Han). At today's prices I would not waste my time....this game is not fun if you are trying to compete with other sellers who have a massive price advantage on you.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    When it EOLs? Eh, did I miss something? #10227 has already gone...

    $250 next Christmas strikes me as reasonable, but I'll take my $200 today and buy something else for next year.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406

    When it EOLs? Eh, did I miss something? #10227 has already gone...

    Only in US as far as I know. It's still available here, but the cheapest I can get it is somewhere around 240$.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    No it is still available from Walmart, TRU, Target etc in the US and every other [email protected] site worldwide.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    edited October 2013
    You can get it from Toys R Us for $184 and get a free Y-Wing #9495 while you're at it. Best deal right now is Death Star or UCS (debatable) X-Wing at MSRP and the free Y-Wing.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Hoping to get one for 150$ on BFriday. Not willing to shed more for this one.
  • dr_tengdr_teng Member Posts: 101
    Check around on Craigslist, you may still have some local sellers that stocked up during the 50% off sale and want to dump it at $150.
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    Yep, #10227 is still on the uk [email protected]
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Good to know, I stopped watching it once I sold mine, glad I did, clearly it isn't going anywhere for a long time.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited October 2013

    BTW, this is way off topic, but since this thread has done that before, I'm going to risk it...

    They did one practice take, then the one you see in the video, amazing what happens when all the students from a school can come together, I found it very cool.

    Even more cool, the whole thing is done without cuts, a single long take over 4 min long.

    I agree that it was well done and it's cool that the school can come together like that. That said it was to a Katy Perry song so maybe its actually a little sad, kids today hey.

    Oh and schools still have Bridge Clubs, what the ....?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Katy Perry isn't that bad, better than some other choices. :)

    Yep, they do still have Bridge Clubs, how cool is that? They had a total of 72 different clubs if memory serves, nice to know that they provide a place for everyone there so no one feels like they have no group to belong to.

    Not everyone will be a football player or cheerleader, but everyone can find something to belong too. :)
  • PoochyPoochy USAMember Posts: 479
    ^ High School Lego Club ...
    LegoFanTexasDougout
  • richlrichl NYCMember Posts: 246
    Just a quick question - what do you think will EOL first; the Haunted House or Arkham Asylum?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Arkham Asylum...

    Don't be shocked if HH is still out 4 years from now.

    Yea, nuts... but then so is FB and DS still out... :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,707
    Do not be surprised if HH is done this holiday season.
    FollowsClosely
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    ^Why not? That would seem to be the very definition of surprising!
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    ^^That would be shocking to me. I think my local Brand Store glued the box to the shelf, like with FB.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,939
    sidersdd said:

    You can get it from Toys R Us for $184 and get a free Y-Wing #9495 while you're at it. Best deal right now is Death Star or UCS (debatable) X-Wing at MSRP and the free Y-Wing.

    Tried to order UCS X-Wing on this deal plus 20% off code. They will not ship #10240 to the UK with or without the free Y-Wing or 20% discount code.

  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 964
    ^what 20% code?
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^ The code is not going to work since it is technically a hot price item
    Hot Price Item! Low prices on hundreds of items, every day! Cannot be combined with additional discounts
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,939
    Dragonhawk: I never got to the stage where I could add the code (payment page). As soon as I was diverted to the company that does TRU’s export deliveries I got the message that I could not proceed with the stuff I had. I thought that maybe it didn’t like me having the freebie Y-wing, so I took it out of my basket, and it still never let me go ahead for the X-wing.

    Possibly some TLG spoilsport rules imposed on TRU that stop you receiving exclusives from a country that is cheaper than your country of residence.
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