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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    6860 has been out 2 years, clearly it "should" be going out.

    It is not, however, on the list... Almost everything else from the first wave in 2012 is on the list, but 6860 is absent.

    Make of it what you will.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    edited October 2013
    #6860 was clearanced out at a lot of walmarts a few months ago and was part of a big online sale that Target had just a couple of weeks ago. The online price was $49.60 and Amazon lowered their price in turn. They sold out at both locations within a few hours.

    So, recent markdowns may explain the drought. The only store around me that still carries it is Meijer at full RRP. I don't expect to see it back at my Kmart, Walmart, or Target though as there is no longer a spot for it on the shelves.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ That is a trend that I see continuing, and it will make being a reseller harder.

    Two years ago, when Walmart and Target clearanced out sets, usually they were EOL.

    Now, more and more, they are removing them from their shelf plans while the set remains current.

    Take Jabba's Palace, that set is gone from a lot of the stores around here, replaced with the 2013 sets. So the "deals" on that set were 6-9 months ago, yet the set is still current. Millennium Falcon is another example, Walmart got rid of those around here for $99 each, a good deal, unless it stays around for another year or two.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,788
    edited October 2013
    For whats it worth, Tower Bridge is not available from Amazon.com
    Neither is Grand Emporium
    Again not a true indicator, but It is a bit curious, unless they are being punished for putting those sets on some kind of sale earlier this year.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    I think it may be a deliberate strategy, partly because it has become profitable to do so, but also maybe to slow the reseller side of things. They sell a set on shelves in B&M stores for 1-2 years, clearance them if need be but not EOL them. As warehouse space is alot cheaper than retail space and more and more people are buying online they can keep selling via this medium for an extra 1,2 or more years, and they can let them slow sell until the last one is gone.

    Obviously this affects resellers as you want to keep your money tide up for as short a time as possibe, so buying just as a set goes EOL and at a clearance price was the way to do it.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    edited October 2013
    What about #9526 ? Should it go as well?

    Status is check to call product availability.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    #9526 is already hard to get at any discount. Looks like it could EOL soon.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Best deal on #9526 was last Black Friday, they were if memory serves on sale at the LEGO store, plus all the various stacked discounts.

    Someone correct me if my memory is fuzzy, but my net cost on those was about $65 after all was said and done.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    There's very few of them for sale right now compared to other sets. If it EOLs this Christmas it will be a good one.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    The Palpatine's Arrest set has a lot in common with an earlier set, #7754 Home One Calamari; its availability at retail (it's an exclusive), size, cost, etc. Its aftermarket potential is poor. Just my opinion, but without a significant discount, they won't make a good investment.
    cardgenius
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    I find Palpatine a lot more interesting than #7754, and has great minifig value compared to that.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    IMO Palpatine's Arrest will be another Home One. If you are counting on minifgs to boost price then Jabba's Palace may be the smarter bet. Problem is every man and his dog has a stockpile of Jabba's Palace. No winners with these two sets unfortunately as far as I can tell.

    The Millenium Falcon is a nice set but it will most likely be available until they remake another mid-size Falcon based on the new movie, and again it is being heavily stockpiled by new entrants into the reselling market. Currently I really like the Death Star but the time to buy this beast is at least 1 year away.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    PA will slowly rise and plateau low, as the set itself is not stellar and the minifig selection isn't great either. Anakin, Mace, Kit Fisto are identical or nearly identical to ones you can get in other sets. Only Saesee, Agen Kolar and Palpatine are unique. I don't see them being desirable enough to drive the price very high after EOL.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    ^Way too many so-so sets out there. Go for the unusual, never-before-done sets, oh and buy them at 50% off clearance. Then you're good to go.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited October 2013

    ^ That is a trend that I see continuing, and it will make being a reseller harder.
    ...
    Millennium Falcon is another example, Walmart got rid of those around here for $99 each, a good deal, unless it stays around for another year or two.

    Tell me about it. They disappeared in January after on clearance for $99 only to suddenly pop up for MSRP at Walmarts and Targets in the recent weeks
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,788
    Would not be surprised to see MF as a sale set for Target's BF sale, then again I would not be surprised to see TLR Constitution train chase or Helm deep on Target's BF sale.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448

    For whats it worth, Tower Bridge is not available from Amazon.com
    Neither is Grand Emporium
    Again not a true indicator, but It is a bit curious, unless they are being punished for putting those sets on some kind of sale earlier this year.

    The got caught by the LEGO police for selling those sets for $.05 below retail, and can't order any from LEGO for the next 6 months. :-)

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    ^Amazon probably got 5,000 Mini VW Bus sets in September with purchases. They are licking their fingers.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^^Did they allow a 10% discount coupon to slip by on an 'excluded' set?
  • PoochyPoochy USAMember Posts: 479
    edited October 2013

    Best deal on #9526 was last Black Friday, they were if memory serves on sale at the LEGO store, plus all the various stacked discounts.

    Someone correct me if my memory is fuzzy, but my net cost on those was about $65 after all was said and done.

    TRU had one of those 30% off some sets sale back in February, and that overlapped with a stackable BOGO sale toward the end of the week, so that took the price down to around $57.

  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452

    For whats it worth, Tower Bridge is not available from Amazon.com
    Neither is Grand Emporium
    Again not a true indicator, but It is a bit curious, unless they are being punished for putting those sets on some kind of sale earlier this year.

    The big R2 #10225 has been out of stock there for awhile, too.
    IMHO, this is all irrelevant to the retirement of sets. AMZN is just choosing not to order some of these exclusives right now.
    I doubt TLG is punishing AMZN. Just guessing, but it is more likely the other way around, if you choose to put it in those terms. AMZN might be communicating (with their wallet) "We don't have to order your pricey, slow-moving product." Perhaps those were slow-movers for AMZN, and when TLG started their heavy-handed "don't tweak our prices" policy, they decided to just not reorder them. Could be!
    FollowsCloselycardgeniusJP3804
  • cardgeniuscardgenius Member Posts: 153
    ^ That's what I would bet on. I remember Amazon and Nintendo getting into it a couple years ago about pricing, Nintendo wouldn't give, so Amazon stopped directly selling their hardware.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/631516-wii-u/64280081

    Nintendo...

    Key points:

    (Nintendo refused to let Amazon sell unsold 3ds inventory at a discount, and amazon retaliated by marking large quantities of their 3ds inventory defective and either selling them at "warehouse discounts" and sending some back to Nintendo. In response Nintendo refused to let them sell any more nintendo hardware, and the conflict remains unresolved today.)

    If you Google search Nintendo Amazon Dispute, you'll find more.

    TLG would be wise to remember that large retails indeed don't have to buy and sell their product.
    cardgeniuscloaked7
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Hmm, I was wondering why you couldn't buy any Nintendo hardware from Amazon directly. A dumb move on Nintendos part. The 3DS has been kind of a flop and no doubt the fact that Amazon didn't carry the WiiU upon release hurt its sales.
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    mathew said:

    The 3DS has been kind of a flop...

    You just tipped your hand right there...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The 3DS took off once they fixed the price, I bought one for my son once the price was right. Last year I picked up a XL model with Mario Cart 7 included for less than $200 from Target.

    Wii U would start selling if they did a price drop now, not down to $299, that was pointless, if they went to $199, they'd start to move units.

    If they don't, this might be the end of Nintendo as a hardware company.
    madforLEGOcardgenius
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited October 2013
    Nintendo still sells like crazy. They could live off their handheld sales alone if they wanted to, and I think what a lot of people in the US don't realize is that Nintendo and Sony own much of the gaming market in Japan. The Xbox sells poorly in Japan much like the Wii U is doing right now in the states, which will change soon enough. Japan and Europe enjoy social gaming a lot more than Americans, and therefore, Nintendo and Sony will remain dominant while PC gaming continues inching in on Microsofts sales, sorry LFT.

    ...and if you really don't believe me, just look at who owns the most spaces at the top
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_game_consoles
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,476
    whoa, déjà vu.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^^ While it is true that Nintendo does well with handheld sales now, the DS, DSi, and 3DS line of hardware is now showing its age and dates from before the iPhone (and touch screen smartphones in general) era.

    It sure as heck predates the tablet era.

    I think the 3DS is the swan song of Nintendo's portable hardware division, I do not believe they will repeat that success again.

    Wii U will very much become the swan song of consoles for Nintendo unless they do something and do it quickly.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    seems to me known
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited October 2013
    Maybe the 2DS will save them :/

    Or maybe not.
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    #9526 Palpatine's Arrest and #9474 Helm's Deep are both call for availability on [email protected]
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Nintendo has focused all their energy on handheld games and systems this year. They are either giving up on the Wii U in attempt to start again with a different console, or more likely just waiting till they know they can sell Wii Us. Perhaps they will start advertising when Microsoft or Sony start doing some of their job for them. Anyways, the pile of cash they sit on could let them put out failed consoles repeatedly, year after year, and it wouldn't take away from the pure power they have with quality titles over their competitors.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,788
    JP3804 said:

    #9526 Palpatine's Arrest and #9474 Helm's Deep are both call for availability on [email protected]

    Interesting for the PA, but kinda expected on HD.

  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    I thought it was common knowledge that HD was going... Is it not just running out everywhere now?
  • TncatsfanTncatsfan Member Posts: 92
    I just picked up #9474 Helm Deep on Amazon with some points I had....glad I got it before it EOLed.
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 976
    JP3804 said:

    #9526 Palpatine's Arrest and #9474 Helm's Deep are both call for availability on [email protected]

    They're both available in the UK [email protected], but we also still have the UCS B-Wing which I doubt they'll ever shift at full RRP!

  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 425
    ^ I can't remember seeing #9526 in a Brand store for a while now. I know it is still on S&H but it's availability in stores has been limited for a while.

    I think £6 in points and a free christmas set is in order tomorrow!
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    ^I'll bet my TRU will clear their's out for a decent price sooner or later. That one is a slooooow mover. At $110...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ It is overpriced at $90, TRU's price is insane. :)

    At $59 I think it would have done ok. But what do I know? :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    That's why I never purchased #9526...it's way overpriced. I think @LegoFanTexas has the price about right at $59.
  • nbaisfantasticalnbaisfantastical Member Posts: 8
    JP3804 said:

    #9526 Palpatine's Arrest and #9474 Helm's Deep are both call for availability on [email protected]

    Helm's Deep is now SOLD OUT on [email protected]

  • nbaisfantasticalnbaisfantastical Member Posts: 8
    JP3804 said:

    #9526 Palpatine's Arrest and #9474 Helm's Deep are both call for availability on [email protected]

    Helm's Deep is now SOLD OUT on [email protected]

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    you can say that again!
    FollowsCloselyBrickDancercanon03GothamConstructionCojasor
  • BrikingBriking Dorset, UKMember Posts: 759
    Helm's Deep is now SOLD OUT on [email protected]

    I'll get my coat...
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    Helm's Deep isn't SOLD OUT on [email protected]

    (AU site) :p
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 911
    It is on the US site :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    edited October 2013
    Sold out on US [email protected]
    Amazon US $111.62
    Target US $111.99 Price Cut
    Walmart US $111.66
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Maybe he's writing that Helms Deep has compromised its principles or integrity in exchange for personal gain?
    thenosBrickDancercloaked7Yellowcastle
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    tensor said:

    Maybe he's writing that Helms Deep has compromised its principles or integrity in exchange for personal gain?

    Nah, that's gonna be me when I sell it for 2xRRP.
    rocaoBrickDancer
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