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Most 10 dollar sets that are licensed tend to double their value, but unless you have 1000 of them hiding in a back room then is it really a great item?
On paper sure, but in practice unless you have a ton of them is it really worth it?
I would say if they rapidly get to 30-40 in the next then yeah, but I think there are a lot of people out there that will flood the market with these this holiday season, they just are not out selling yet.
If they do rapidly go up and stay up I will say I will be surprised. Again I just see too many people hording these sets to really see it skyrocket, Im guessing it will probably be more like the Indy motorcycle chase set.
Note also, I did write "for my situation." I'd much rather sink my investment into something around the $100 level and have to deal with less transactions. That's my comfort zone. If making $5 here and there works for your situation, more power to you.
Have a lot of #7913 ready for this xmas as well.
But Riddles of the Ring currently at £6 with 2 figs? No thanks
FB, but I think you have half the people thinking it is not going to retire and the other half thinking so what if it does.
The curious one would be GE, unless that shows in wholesale ordering catalogs still.
Sounds like HH will be around for another at least .5 year
I'm guessing TLR will be discounted to be cleared out, I think for those wanting to get each set will be happy about that.
Unimog I'm guessing may be done.
I would be shocked to see HE gone after only 1 year as it is not the MT.
LEGO helicopter rescue may be on the way out.
Mine stuff is going, City trains are likely staying another year.
I'm guessing more year 1 batman may be retiring
But I doubt much is going that will be surprising.
If they surprise and end it early, it would be a rare event. There are not as many of them as there are FB stocked away, but I also don't think it will do as well either, since we now have PC for a new corner building.
Frankly, I think it will stay until we get the next corner building Jan 2015.
I mean for the size of Market street that box is not exactly light either IMO
Of course, keep in mind that I'm not on TLG's official mailing list, and even if I was, dates are always subject to change. I honestly believe that FB was due to retire 2 years ago, but that close to retirement a change was made in internal policy.
I could be completely wrong, but between the bad batch of 39R1 (anyone remember that one?), the booming price rise of CC and GG, and continued strong demand for FB (which was in and out of stock all the time back then), someone at TLG decided that perhaps these sets could live for more than 2 years each.
Or, another possibility is that they decided they wanted 4-6 of them on the shelf at any one time, giving people a reason to spend all their money with TLG rather than after market sellers.
After all, for the price of a new-in-box Cafe Corner today, you can buy, FB, GE, PS, TH, PC and even toss in HH as a bonus...
I'm quite sure that TLG would prefer all that money goes to them, so while FB will rise in retirement (and GE will too), it won't repeat CC or GG.
BTW, the above price issues is exactly why I sold my CC and GG, I had original factory copies of both, but once 5 modulars were "current", I just decided I didn't need them as badly as someone else did.
Good for me as a LEGO fan, bad for me as a LEGO reseller.
There will be exceptions, but there are so many people doing this now... The number of sellers I see selling recently retired sets is far larger than it was a year or two ago.
what are others views? My personal one is that its a winner, its my favourite set from round 1 LOTR and as such ive gone to HP levels in terms of inventory (which by my standards means lots ie around 10 sets).
Do others here see this as a winner?
On the subject of small sets they are a means to an end for me, I like having a few in stock to sell, but for me the purpose is purely so that I can open my amazon shop over christmas.. I list all my sets 1st sept (small ones) so I get the requisiste 25 sales before end of October which means I can then sell over christmas.. I aim to make a profit, but its normally small, say 10% after all fees, sometimes I do take a loss, but this makes up for itself with the listings I put up over christmas.. EG this year I have a number of IS's to shift and an IF which im confident will sell easy over christmas for a good price... I suppose you could say my small sets are the cannon fodder tee hee..
Also a good way to build up some nice rep, quick shipping and good service so people can see you are trustworthy..
Sorry im rambling now! Thanks in advance all.
I don't pretend to understand TLG's decision making process on what gets retired when, but I would think the strategy would be consistent. The winter village series is extremely popular. If Modulars are getting an extended stay so that TLG can keep more money from going to the after market, then why wouldn't the same apply to WV series? Maybe the Post Office set wasn't selling as well as I thought.
And that's just if you don't want it as Helm's Deep.
To be fair, there's folks that just dont know either, but would buy the set. My aunt loves winter scenes for Christmas, and planned on getting the PO. Of course, I didnt know that until I got a phone call asking where the heck it was...
She waited too long, without knowing she did.
Sometimes there are valid reasons for missing a set. :)
Since everyone knows that JP is gone this year that may be a good deal for those who want one. I think for reselling it will be hit or miss. It does have figures that are not are not in the other 'jabba' set, but I'm guessing A LOT of people are going to horde that one due to the publicity.
Additional though, if the Rancor pit sticks around, and it fits with the palace then maybe it will do well since people will likely want both and I have not heard if the Rancor pit is going at the same time as JP.
Btw, I can't see the Rancor Pit sticking around without JP. That would seem very odd. JP is a stand-alone. The Rancor isn't. Plus, as it's been said before, having both as a pair will be greater than the sum of their parts.
I agree, it makes no sense to keep it and end JP, but that appears to be what is happening.
I've hedged my bets and picked up a stack of Rancor Pits anyway. Way too early to buy them if it is around another 15 months, however if it surprise leaves this Christmas, it'll double overnight. I can take that gamble on 20 or so of them.
JP won't do as well as it could have, the scare 6 months ago when some thought it would instantly discontinue caused prices to jump to $50 over RRP overnight, I sold about 20 of them for $170 shipped back then in 24 hours.
That won't repeat this time around because people are expecting it and stocking up on it. Still, it will do just fine, but it will be Christmas 2014 before it becomes interesting, and 2015 before it becomes a solid double after fees.
Still, doubling your money in 2 years is not generally a bad thing. :)
I think staggering the associated sets like this allows for far more sales of a given set than otherwise. There is a method to TLG's madness...
Or not, time will tell...
It is not, however, on the list... Almost everything else from the first wave in 2012 is on the list, but 6860 is absent.
Make of it what you will.
So, recent markdowns may explain the drought. The only store around me that still carries it is Meijer at full RRP. I don't expect to see it back at my Kmart, Walmart, or Target though as there is no longer a spot for it on the shelves.