Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

madforLEGO

Tevans333 said:

RichB said:

As bad as things may seem for resellers, both 6858 and 6865 retired over the past couple weeks and both are already selling in the $20 range on ebay here in the states. Not bad considering they were discounted in the $9-10 range just a month or two ago.

Yeah, but after fees and shipping, are you really making anything to make it worthwhile?

Exactly, it is all relative.
Most 10 dollar sets that are licensed tend to double their value, but unless you have 1000 of them hiding in a back room then is it really a great item?
On paper sure, but in practice unless you have a ton of them is it really worth it?
I would say if they rapidly get to 30-40 in the next then yeah, but I think there are a lot of people out there that will flood the market with these this holiday season, they just are not out selling yet.
If they do rapidly go up and stay up I will say I will be surprised. Again I just see too many people hording these sets to really see it skyrocket, Im guessing it will probably be more like the Indy motorcycle chase set.

TheLoneTensor

RichB said:

Am I crazy for being this optimistic again this year??

You're not crazy, but then again, tis the season for all sets to increase in value. As for those $10-$20 sets you mentioned, for my situation, I can't be bothered with them - far too much overhead, mostly just time, that kills the ROI for me.

wrangler6915

^Depends on what your purpose for reselling is: are you trying to (imo not to wisely) pay your mortgage by reselling or are you just trying to offset your hobby? For me personally, I'll take a $10 set going to $20 all day long. I still net about $5 each after shipping/fees, which is a 50% return. That's more then enough to help defray the cost of my hobby, so yeah, that's worth the 5 minutes to post on ebay and 5 more minutes to send out. But again, probably not worth it if you're trying to pay bills; easier to find something more profitable albeit probably not as much "fun"

TheLoneTensor

^Maybe, but you only get to sell so many at a time. It's not like you'll be able to move a couple dozen Catwomans in a week, at least not at those premium prices. The market gets saturated very quickly if too many show up at the same time.

Note also, I did write "for my situation." I'd much rather sink my investment into something around the $100 level and have to deal with less transactions. That's my comfort zone. If making $5 here and there works for your situation, more power to you.

CCC

I don't know what postage is like for you guys, but that $10 set rising to $20 is normally driven by a single minifig (Cap America), sometimes two (Batman and Catwoman). The set is probably worth a couple of dollars, the minifig is the driving factor. In the UK, there is a big difference between postage costs for a minifig (~£1) and a small set (~3). So often it is better to sell the sought after minifig by itself for the same profit as you would have got selling the set, then dump all the other parts in a box for personal use or sell them off in bulk when you have enough and it makes sense.

roxio

^^ if you choose the right small licensed sets and hold long enough, it's well worth it. #7667 #7668 #8014 have been particular winners for me - bought at the right time for average £5-6 each.
Have a lot of #7913 ready for this xmas as well.
But Riddles of the Ring currently at £6 with 2 figs? No thanks

doriansdad

RichB said:

Am I crazy for being this optimistic again this year??

I don't see any good "decent" sized sets retiring this year. Too many licenses, too many resellers, the market is just far too saturated nowdays. The new policy to not discount the more desirable sets will help in a few years but besides a certain technic set there is not much to be optimistic about in 2013. Hopefully I am wrong.

CCC

roxio said:

^^ if you choose the right small licensed sets and hold long enough, it's well worth it. #7667 #7668 #8014 have been particular winners for me - bought at the right time for average £5-6 each.
Have a lot of #7913 ready for this xmas as well.

Yes, all nice battle packs that probably sell well in multiples to one person too. Acting almost as a giant set which is easy to sell in different ways (one pack at a time, or five together). So even easier to shift than sets like Captain America.

roxio said:

But Riddles of the Ring currently at £6 with 2 figs? No thanks

I'm not surprised. Two one-off characters that most people will already have from other sets too. Gandalf Arrives is similar, although at least you get a horse too.

prevere

Love the Riddles set, just for all the dark bluish gray cheese slopes.

madforLEGO

doriansdad said:

RichB said:

Am I crazy for being this optimistic again this year??

I don't see any good "decent" sized sets retiring this year. Too many licenses, too many resellers, the market is just far too saturated nowdays. The new policy to not discount the more desirable sets will help in a few years but besides a certain technic set there is not much to be optimistic about in 2013. Hopefully I am wrong.

Agreed, nothing that has a big Wow factor, aside from the previously mentioned Technic set...
FB, but I think you have half the people thinking it is not going to retire and the other half thinking so what if it does.
The curious one would be GE, unless that shows in wholesale ordering catalogs still.
Sounds like HH will be around for another at least .5 year
I'm guessing TLR will be discounted to be cleared out, I think for those wanting to get each set will be happy about that.
Unimog I'm guessing may be done.
I would be shocked to see HE gone after only 1 year as it is not the MT.
LEGO helicopter rescue may be on the way out.
Mine stuff is going, City trains are likely staying another year.
I'm guessing more year 1 batman may be retiring
But I doubt much is going that will be surprising.

prevere

GE has been out of stock by Amazon itself for a little while. Could be an indicator there.

doriansdad

GE would be interesting if it EOLed this year but we all know it will be available thru 2014. Only confirmations I have are FB and SSD and both will not perform well due to the massive stockpiles held by new resellers....my 2012 sets would outperform them handily by holding them back another year.

mathew

I'm surprised no one is more excited about the possibility of GE retiring. It could very well go here at the end of 2013 with Fire Brigade. With the lack of discounting and that there's probably not a lot of them sitting in resellers closests, it seems to be the safest bet for post retirement returns.

Farmer_John

FB retiring??? Say it isn't so! I plan to wait until the FB retires...and then complain that I didn't get a chance to purchase it. You darn resellers!

;-)

LegoFanTexas

mathew said:

I'm surprised no one is more excited about the possibility of GE retiring

Because it won't... I have seen it on more than one list with a date of 12/31/2014...

If they surprise and end it early, it would be a rare event. There are not as many of them as there are FB stocked away, but I also don't think it will do as well either, since we now have PC for a new corner building.

Frankly, I think it will stay until we get the next corner building Jan 2015.

Briking

^ Are you certain the next one after PR will be a corner? If so, any knowledge of what it will be?

jasor

^ CC [corner(redundant, i know)], GG, FB, GE (corner), PS, TH, PC (corner), and now PR.... the next one "should" be a street release with the corner following that.

graphite

^ I could see a police station being that next street release one. Or at least I would hope they'd do it as a street one and not a corner if they do one.

Briking

^^ I know the purists don't consider MS a modular, but considering it is part of the mini modulars, I'd say Lego do. Was MS released before or after CC?

BrickDancer

^After.

doriansdad

MS is featured on the back of the Green Grocer box so i would say it is part of the modulars lineup.

prevere

We need a Super 8 in 1 Pack with MS, CC, GG, FB, GE, PS, TH and PC all together. But then we'd all complain about damaged refrigerator-like boxes from Amazon.

LegoFanTexas

Briking said:

^ Are you certain the next one after PR will be a corner? If so, any knowledge of what it will be?

No, I was speculating...

madforLEGO

prevere said:

We need a Super 8 in 1 Pack with MS, CC, GG, FB, GE, PS, TH and PC all together. But then we'd all complain about damaged refrigerator-like boxes from Amazon.

that is funny.. imagine how much that box would weigh?
I mean for the size of Market street that box is not exactly light either IMO

prevere

^I thought of that after seeing a 2 in 1 Chima pack today at TRU. Those 2 or 3 in 1 packs are listed in Bricklink, but I'd never seen one in the flesh before.

Pitfall69

LegoFanTexas said:

Briking said:

^ Are you certain the next one after PR will be a corner? If so, any knowledge of what it will be?

No, I was speculating...

How dare you speculate in spec...oh, wait. Carry on.

LegoFanTexas

^ :) At least I'm in the correct thread. :)

Brew

LegoFanTexas said:

mathew said:

I'm surprised no one is more excited about the possibility of GE retiring

Because it won't... I have seen it on more than one list with a date of 12/31/2014...

I'm curious. Was the Winter Post Office on any of these lists? It's EOL seemed to surprise most of us. Or maybe seasonal sets don't show up on these lists?

LegoFanTexas

None that I saw, the Post Office surprised me as well...

Of course, keep in mind that I'm not on TLG's official mailing list, and even if I was, dates are always subject to change. I honestly believe that FB was due to retire 2 years ago, but that close to retirement a change was made in internal policy.

I could be completely wrong, but between the bad batch of 39R1 (anyone remember that one?), the booming price rise of CC and GG, and continued strong demand for FB (which was in and out of stock all the time back then), someone at TLG decided that perhaps these sets could live for more than 2 years each.

Or, another possibility is that they decided they wanted 4-6 of them on the shelf at any one time, giving people a reason to spend all their money with TLG rather than after market sellers.

After all, for the price of a new-in-box Cafe Corner today, you can buy, FB, GE, PS, TH, PC and even toss in HH as a bonus...

I'm quite sure that TLG would prefer all that money goes to them, so while FB will rise in retirement (and GE will too), it won't repeat CC or GG.

BTW, the above price issues is exactly why I sold my CC and GG, I had original factory copies of both, but once 5 modulars were "current", I just decided I didn't need them as badly as someone else did.

Good for me as a LEGO fan, bad for me as a LEGO reseller.

LegoFanTexas

BTW, for those just getting into this and expecting "easy money", I think those days are mostly past.

There will be exceptions, but there are so many people doing this now... The number of sellers I see selling recently retired sets is far larger than it was a year or two ago.

littlepuppi

Guys #9474 , helms deep, I like this set and a lot of my investing strategy is based on what I like as if I make errors at least I have sets that I like :D

what are others views? My personal one is that its a winner, its my favourite set from round 1 LOTR and as such ive gone to HP levels in terms of inventory (which by my standards means lots ie around 10 sets).

Do others here see this as a winner?

On the subject of small sets they are a means to an end for me, I like having a few in stock to sell, but for me the purpose is purely so that I can open my amazon shop over christmas.. I list all my sets 1st sept (small ones) so I get the requisiste 25 sales before end of October which means I can then sell over christmas.. I aim to make a profit, but its normally small, say 10% after all fees, sometimes I do take a loss, but this makes up for itself with the listings I put up over christmas.. EG this year I have a number of IS's to shift and an IF which im confident will sell easy over christmas for a good price... I suppose you could say my small sets are the cannon fodder tee hee..

Also a good way to build up some nice rep, quick shipping and good service so people can see you are trustworthy..

Sorry im rambling now! Thanks in advance all.

LP

Farmer_John

Brew said:

I'm curious. Was the Winter Post Office on any of these lists? It's EOL seemed to surprise most of us. Or maybe seasonal sets don't show up on these lists?

Here's the thread from earlier this year. Please note that my prediction was wrong...

http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/160716#Comment_160716

CircleK

Brew said:

I'm curious. Was the Winter Post Office on any of these lists? It's EOL seemed to surprise most of us. Or maybe seasonal sets don't show up on these lists?

Even GRogall stated the WV post office would be back this year. My guess is that it was a last minute change by TLG, but who knows. I noticed it got the Retired label on [email protected] several months ago and grabbed one for my collection then.

I don't pretend to understand TLG's decision making process on what gets retired when, but I would think the strategy would be consistent. The winter village series is extremely popular. If Modulars are getting an extended stay so that TLG can keep more money from going to the after market, then why wouldn't the same apply to WV series? Maybe the Post Office set wasn't selling as well as I thought.

SirKevbags

It was probably said last year but having seasonal sets with such large price differences could have been a problem. The jump from the PO to the WC was a big one and likely slowed sales of the more expensive set.

SirKevbags

Edited for a double post.

CCC

littlepuppi said:

Guys #9474 , helms deep, I like this set and a lot of my investing strategy is based on what I like as if I make errors at least I have sets that I like :D

what are others views? My personal one is that its a winner, its my favourite set from round 1 LOTR and as such ive gone to HP levels in terms of inventory (which by my standards means lots ie around 10 sets).

Do others here see this as a winner?

If you get it for a decent price, it will always be a winner. Theoden and (to some extent) Haldir will be sought after minifigs as they come in the most expensive set of that wave so not everyone will have them. And just for the sheer amount of grey bricks (MOCs of space ships, castles, walls), the set will be a winner.

And that's just if you don't want it as Helm's Deep.

TheLoneTensor

CircleK said:

Even GRogall stated the WV post office would be back this year. My guess is that it was a last minute change by TLG, but who knows. I noticed it got the Retired label on [email protected] several months ago and grabbed one for my collection then.

This is a common theme that I don't really understand. If you wanted this, why did it take the Retired label to spur you on? It seems that if you want a set and can afford the set, you should get the set. Even moreso when it's part of a collection, in which case you'll hate yourself if you do miss out on it.

jasor

^ It's not hate for themselves that they feel. It's for the people that bought it to sell to them later. OK Ok, i kid. But not really. OK, I kid.

To be fair, there's folks that just dont know either, but would buy the set. My aunt loves winter scenes for Christmas, and planned on getting the PO. Of course, I didnt know that until I got a phone call asking where the heck it was...
She waited too long, without knowing she did.

CircleK

tensor said:

CircleK said:

Even GRogall stated the WV post office would be back this year. My guess is that it was a last minute change by TLG, but who knows. I noticed it got the Retired label on [email protected] several months ago and grabbed one for my collection then.

This is a common theme that I don't really understand. If you wanted this, why did it take the Retired label to spur you on? It seems that if you want a set and can afford the set, you should get the set. Even moreso when it's part of a collection, in which case you'll hate yourself if you do miss out on it.

Agreed. I waited bc I had to. It was out of season and I couldn't buy it unless I went to the aftermarket. I didn't come out of my Dark Ages until the latter part of last year. By the time I discovered the WV theme and decided I wanted to collect it, all of the sets were out of season. So I simply planned to buy this year when it came back bc I heard that it was. It wasn't bc I was rolling the dice on it.

Sometimes there are valid reasons for missing a set. :)

TheLoneTensor

I just think that it's a weird concept, and I do it sometimes also. When you can't have something, you want it more. And, when you know something won't be available anymore, suddenly it's worth getting, whereas a week before it wasn't. It's silly and illogical, but then again, we are humans.

madforLEGO

Kinda related, Amazon.com US now has the LEGO Falcon for 103, Sail barge for 96 and JP for 90 and change
Since everyone knows that JP is gone this year that may be a good deal for those who want one. I think for reselling it will be hit or miss. It does have figures that are not are not in the other 'jabba' set, but I'm guessing A LOT of people are going to horde that one due to the publicity.
Additional though, if the Rancor pit sticks around, and it fits with the palace then maybe it will do well since people will likely want both and I have not heard if the Rancor pit is going at the same time as JP.

TheLoneTensor

Hey, that's a good price for the Falcon. I see that one as a good bet for aftermarket yumminess. I can still write that in this thread, right? I don't want to make anyone have to go see their therapist or anything because of my greedy, slimeball reseller position.

Btw, I can't see the Rancor Pit sticking around without JP. That would seem very odd. JP is a stand-alone. The Rancor isn't. Plus, as it's been said before, having both as a pair will be greater than the sum of their parts.

CircleK

tensor said:

I just think that it's a weird concept, and I do it sometimes also. When you can't have something, you want it more. And, when you know something won't be available anymore, suddenly it's worth getting, whereas a week before it wasn't. It's silly and illogical, but then again, we are humans.

Yeah.. there are a ton of different factors to consider. I generally don't wait long for the items I really want. The issue for me specifically is that I just started collecting and I'm trying to get caught up on a lot of sets at once as well as iron out exactly what I want my collection to be. There is a tax due when you come out of your Dark Ages and depending on what your theme(s) of choice are, it may involve a lot of sets and a lot of money. When I hold off on a set I want it isn't b/c I'm ignorantly waiting for some fairy tale deal to come along or because I only decided I wanted it because it's getting ready to retire, although that is what a few people (especially on this thread) would probably assume. In my case, if I'm holding off on some sets it's because I'm busy at the moment buying a lot of other ones. I can't speak to why other people wait and risk losing sets at RRP, but for those of us that are new and have entire collections to build - a bit of strategy is usually required. If not for financial reasons, then marital.

LegoFanTexas

JP is on the list to end this year, Rancor Pit is not actually.

I agree, it makes no sense to keep it and end JP, but that appears to be what is happening.

I've hedged my bets and picked up a stack of Rancor Pits anyway. Way too early to buy them if it is around another 15 months, however if it surprise leaves this Christmas, it'll double overnight. I can take that gamble on 20 or so of them.

JP won't do as well as it could have, the scare 6 months ago when some thought it would instantly discontinue caused prices to jump to $50 over RRP overnight, I sold about 20 of them for $170 shipped back then in 24 hours.

That won't repeat this time around because people are expecting it and stocking up on it. Still, it will do just fine, but it will be Christmas 2014 before it becomes interesting, and 2015 before it becomes a solid double after fees.

Still, doubling your money in 2 years is not generally a bad thing. :)

FenrisAkashi

Has there been any indication that the current Falcon is due to retire any time soon?

Bandit

LegoFanTexas said:

JP is on the list to end this year, Rancor Pit is not actually.

I agree, it makes no sense to keep it and end JP, but that appears to be what is happening.

I think it makes perfect sense. Normal people (kids) only get a few sets a year. For all the kids that just got or will get Jabba's Palace as their big set this year, that gives them another year/cycle to ask for and receive the rancor pit to go with it. That's why they staggered the sail barge release, which will assumedly be available a year/cycle after the rancor pit goes.

I think staggering the associated sets like this allows for far more sales of a given set than otherwise. There is a method to TLG's madness...

abenamou

Also the 6860 seems to have disappeared everywhere except [email protected]?

LegoFanTexas

FenrisAkashi said:

Has there been any indication that the current Falcon is due to retire any time soon?

No, I don't think it is going this year. I believe that it remains a good seller and TLG surely saw the value of the last system scale version, so they might have this one out for 4 or 5 years, just like the X-Wing.

Or not, time will tell...

LegoFanTexas

6860 has been out 2 years, clearly it "should" be going out.

It is not, however, on the list... Almost everything else from the first wave in 2012 is on the list, but 6860 is absent.

Make of it what you will.

CircleK

#6860 was clearanced out at a lot of walmarts a few months ago and was part of a big online sale that Target had just a couple of weeks ago. The online price was $49.60 and Amazon lowered their price in turn. They sold out at both locations within a few hours.

So, recent markdowns may explain the drought. The only store around me that still carries it is Meijer at full RRP. I don't expect to see it back at my Kmart, Walmart, or Target though as there is no longer a spot for it on the shelves.