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Comments
Yes, it is true that non-resellers might want to know when a set is going, but frankly, if you are buying for yourself and you want a set, buy it as soon as you can, some sets (Zombies) go away in a flash.
Lego is pumping out the sets but by doing so they are losing some of the magical quality that makes them desirable to collectors.
Of course, like others have highlighted, there's always the reality that sales of older sets will likely detract from sales of newer ones. So who really knows what will happen.
Recently resellers purchased many of these "new" modulars (since FB), plus plenty of DS, to guarantee their profits when they retire, thus increasing overall sales, which probably made TLG keep them in stock for longer to increase profits on them.
I think that with resellers tired of waiting and unloading them recently, combined with the lack of discounts on exclusives will decrease their sales so TLG will start to retire them at an increased rate than we have seen the past couple of years.
While the only retired modulars were CC and GG, many people have been buying not just FB, but GE and PS, not wanting to "miss out".
I've seen many posts here from people saying they stocked up on GE last Christmas, just in case it went out.
When FB finally does go, that bubble will burst and many casual resellers will say, "what the heck happened!?!" when FB doesn't double overnight.
I have been contacted by three different buyers wanting to buy out my entire stock of FB sets for the purpose of resale, so clearly there are still people who believe this set will do well. Only time will tell on that one of course.
Assuming that FB doesn't double overnight, and perhaps doesn't even double within a year, we might well sell resellers stop buying them across the board, in which case TLG might do a surprise retirement of GE/PS/TH all in the same year, in which case the latter 2 will likely surprise jump in price, repeating the cycle. :)
Isn't supply and demand fun! :)
1) step one: keep sets (FB, DS, MMV) in production longer to drive up hoarding, drive down the quick rise if aftermarket prices, and drive (at least seom) resellers out of the market
2) step two. do a surprise early retirement of the next batch of sets (GE,PS,TH), which will surely result in a quick rise in aftermarket values, which will inspire more resellers to enter (or reenter) the marketplace.
Makes no sense.
I have a hard time believing LEGO is purposely delaying retirement dates with the intent of toying with the reseller market. Now, i would believe that items are being kept in production because they are selling - and some amount of that is do to resellers. but it's the sales driving the delay in retirement, not the plan of trying to monkey with resellers.
I also believe LEGO is moving some of the older exclusives to a different model - online only. there are a number of items they stopped shipping to stores ages ago, yet they continue to sell online. This makes a ton of sense actually, given limited shelf space, etc. Keep the hot items in the LEGO stores for the first year or so, then slowly convert them over to [email protected] only and keep producing and selling them as long as they are moving in sufficient quantities.
In other words, because they probably aren't managing the aftermarket, it will swing up and down until they finally decide to pay attention.
FB and DS are still in production because they are still selling. Some of that is to the end customer, some of that is to resellers. How much to each is debatable.
What I'm suggesting is that when FB retires, if it doesn't rise much and takes a long time to go anywhere, resellers will stop buying the other modulars still out (GE/PS/TH) very quickly.
When those sales slow down, TLG might decide (strickly due to the sales numbers) to retire those sooner. If they retire sooner than expected, they'll rise in price faster.
Then the resellers will jump back in and buy the next batch, thus keeping them out longer.
Rinse, lather, repeat.
Not every LEGO Brand Retail store can do that due to space, I'm thankful to live next to a larger than average store. :)
@dougts I also have a hard time believing that TLG makes any decision based on what resellers do. All they want is sell product. They could not care less if resellers buy the same product over and over for the purpose of reselling. All they do is make decisions based on numbers, that's all.
@LegoFanTexas Yes, I think we will see that "rinse lather repeat" effect sooner than most people think, specially now that sales will slow down due to the discount restrictions on exclusives.
Some resellers (even on here) spend $100k plus a year on lego. How many new families would it take to make up that shortfall?
All TLG care about is their profit. If they feel they can make more money keeping a set out longer they'll do so.
I don't think the habits of people here can give an accurate market representation. All just opinion but it will be interesting to see how it pans out
The result is then that they can fulfill demand for the older set during its lifetime and they make 20000 extra sales of it, which have gone to resellers. Then the new one comes out, and they start to fulfill demand for that. That is win for lego, win for the consumer. Of course it is idealised, and the switch from one model to another is never that smooth, and it may become uneconomical to do small batches but if it is multiple 1000s of larger sets per batch then it probably makes sense.
It won't work for every model, since not every one is replaced like for like and there will always be demand for older models too. But for any iconic model which the range just has to have, MF, DS, etc it will mean that resellers have to shift to other models or ranges - some of which will be more risky.
I don't think TLG scrutinezes too much what resellers are doing. One quick search on eBay is enough for anyone to see there is a resell market and for how much sets are going, so TLG might be taking in consideration their own numbers. I do not believe that the aftermarket takes away too many sales on new sets.
There are plenty of nice modulars available right now for whoever is coming into the hobby today, still Cafe Corner and Green Grocer only raises in price because after getting all current ones, some people will go after what they are missing. The same will be true for GE, FB, PS and so on. So in reality, there will aways be room for both things, and TLG will only look into their own botton line in a per set basis, making their decision to retire them or not this year or the next.
We have more resellers today then ever before, still TLG breaks their own sales record every year. I don't really think they are concerned with resellers at all. They might even appreciate them.
Good thing is, if he finds a great deal, he gives me first crack at the set at his cost. :-)
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Granted I saw Cafe corners at Walmart for 120 almost permanently (thats right, Walmart was selling CC at $120 back in the day) but I would hardly call that a big markdown. As for Market street, one reason why it is so sought after is that LEGO never discounted those and and pretty sure that either the other retailers did not have those, or if they did again did not discount them.. they just disappeared one day.
But the stocks of mods now being hoarded will affect pricing but I still see FB being sought after and going up fairly quickly due to it being a fire station mod, but again that is just me.
I do agree that lack of discounts on exclusives will slow down hoarders, at least until the EOL date then you will probably have those robust sellers go an buy at retail knowing they can still make some money of them when they are gone.
But in any case that will just make it more lucrative for resellers because of less available after EOL... supply and demand.
I also think that it is a much different market than it was 5-10 years ago. They didn't have nearly as many lego stores. Online purchasing was not as prevalent. They HAD to move stock. They HAD to freshen the lines. They HAD to retire sets.
These days they could theoretically leave sets around forever and simply leave them on the website and ship from a DC.
it is a very good price for that beautifull technic set!
The end result is higher prices to acquire stock, alot more competition, it is alot more difficult to move stock and fees are higher when doing so. Personally I would not recommened reselling to anyone looking to start nowdays. 6 years ago you could be a newbie and make every mistake in the book and still rake in nice money. Nowdays unless you know how to exploit every single angle involved in a reselling operation and not make any mistakes you are going to get your behind handed to you.
It's getting more and more difficult to get sets at great deals (which is a key aspect), have them be in demand relatively soon, and not sold by everyone and their brother (who seem to be OK with making a little profit). Generally I want to sell an item for at least 2X what I paid for it, otherwise it simply isn't worth the bother.
Lastly, I think LEGOS over saturation of sets and their no discount policy will end up hurting most everyone. Time will tell, but I don't think either of those policies will bode well for LEGO.
@cloaked7 . Excellent. One less person to compete with ;)
he he.... Glad to help out! Course, I leave and 10 take my place.
This will hurt not the resellers but those who miss out on EOL sets IMO, especially so if they go back to a hard 2-3 year run time for all sets, if not less.
Its one thing to store a few things in your closet to fund your hobby at low profit margins and yet another to rent warehouse space and run a reselling business.
Yeah...I know that resellers are a small percentage of TLG customers, and yeah...I know that this thread only includes a small number of resellers. But as someone with experience in product management, we always look for "data points" with which to make decisions. It's easy to look at the data on how much of what product is selling. It's a little trickier trying to determine what the market is thinking about specific products you are responsible for.
If I was responsible for the decisions of a set of products, I would (obviously) use sales data...but I would also find a few sites to periodically review that have discussions of what the market thinks. This is probably the biggest thread out there on the heavy spenders and their mindset regarding specific products.
In short, we (Brickset Forum) may be influencing the EOL dates to some degree...