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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259

    kwkw said:

    @FollowsClosely but all those cheese slopes......(bangs head against wall)

    Not to mention that the building process is a bit, well... "You did it once, now do it again!" But it does look great on display. Very stately.
    But one good thing about that is that it's a great set for two people to do. My wife and I built it together and it worked really well, did not feel repetitive at all doing it that way :)
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 991
    Yep. One reason we like it so much is that we had 4 kids building at the same time.
    LadyLovesLegos
  • DwarfSleepyDwarfSleepy Member Posts: 20

    Yep. One reason we like it so much is that we had 4 kids building at the same time.

    Ditto! It's actually not a 16+ set, but a 5+ set, but don't tell anyone... Although that might increase the target group for reselling :-)

  • TncatsfanTncatsfan Member Posts: 92
    How long do you guys think the haunted house sticks around?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 991
    Another year at least.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    ^^Hauntings can last for years.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited September 2013

    Another year at least.

    If it does last beyond this year, I wonder if the box will change. I.e. to remove the Monster Fighters theme and maybe move it to the Expert series.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,782
    edited September 2013
    Tncatsfan said:

    How long do you guys think the haunted house sticks around?

    While it could last another year, I would say this October for Double points is a perfect time to buy IMO. Cause if it goes this year, it will likely go this fall/ early winter like most sets that EOL. If it stays, it stays, but If what is said about the exclusives not being put on sales like in the past then double points may be one of the best deals you will get.
    Plus at least you can still get double points on exclusives, right now anyways, until LEGO deems that too much of a perk and gets rid of it.

    Same if people are looking to get an FB for themselves. Yeah yeah I know ...chicken little, but it sounds like many credible sources are saying it is going out the door.
    Again who knows if Amazon and Walmart are going to go at each other like last fall and have insanely low prices on these sets. That is all up in the air still I think.
    itsnotme
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265

    Tncatsfan said:



    Again who knows if Amazon and Walmart are going to go at each other like last fall and have insanely low prices on these sets. That is all up in the air still I think.

    We can only hope!
    madforLEGO
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337


    Again who knows if Amazon and Walmart are going to go at each other like last fall and have insanely low prices on these sets. That is all up in the air still I think.

    It has been confirmed there will be no more discounts for the large exclusive sets from any retailer. Best bet is to manufacture your own discounts through cashback bonus, discounted gift cards etc.
    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,782
    edited September 2013
    So, double points it is then. It will hurt but I have been eying some larger sets for October.
    Though I wonder if that holds true if LEGO EOLs a set and they no longer sell it (ie Clearance or price it to move)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    Has it been confirmed that a retailer cannot offer an "exclusive" set in a BOGO sale? What about a damaged box discount?
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,468
    I have a hard time imagining the Super Star Destroyer exiting without a discount of some kind. Maybe at some point Lego can say 'ok this set is done, we are clearancing it, its off the list you can cut it too'?
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    What about a sale such as 20% off everything in store. Will they really be excluded?




  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    Has it been confirmed that a retailer cannot offer an "exclusive" set in a BOGO sale? What about a damaged box discount?

    Retailers can do anything they want, TLG doesn't have to sell to them. It is an interesting system. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I have a hard time imagining the Super Star Destroyer exiting without a discount of some kind. Maybe at some point Lego can say 'ok this set is done, we are clearancing it, its off the list you can cut it too'?

    Or they can just end production and slowly let it sell out without fanfare.

    But in fairness, imagine if they didn't discount it, but announced that production had ended and remaining sets would be sold at full price.

    I would imagine they would actually sell out faster that way, resellers would finally stock up on the set.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    ^I agree and I will also say that this move by Lego will help long term Lego investors.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    agree with a point made a few above, Lego can say what they want and retailers can do what they want, if Lego then don't like what they do, they can then refuse to sell to them, then you get the grey market etc etc...

    Lego can make suggestions but the world is just too interconnected for them to be able to set a rule and for the whole world to stick to it...

    IMO it is not in TLG's interests to not allow discounting anyway, its a sensible and key part of any retailers strategy and Lego should not be so stupid as to not realise that.
  • TncatsfanTncatsfan Member Posts: 92
    So i have four sets on my list. If i were to buy them in order of discontinuation, would it be like the list below?

    Battle of Helm's Deep
    Haunted House
    Tower of orthanc
    Ewok village
  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 81
    ^ Pretty much IMO.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Just saw on Brick Fan that TMNT will be getting another wave. Wonder what this means for wave one's shelf life, and how they'll look when they're gone.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    ^^ Boo.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Tncatsfan said:

    So i have four sets on my list. If i were to buy them in order of discontinuation, would it be like the list below?

    Battle of Helm's Deep
    Haunted House
    Tower of orthanc
    Ewok village

    Helm's Deep is on the way out, the other three will be out for years to come.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited September 2013

    I have a hard time imagining the Super Star Destroyer exiting without a discount of some kind. Maybe at some point Lego can say 'ok this set is done, we are clearancing it, its off the list you can cut it too'?

    Or they can just end production and slowly let it sell out without fanfare.

    But in fairness, imagine if they didn't discount it, but announced that production had ended and remaining sets would be sold at full price.

    I would imagine they would actually sell out faster that way, resellers would finally stock up on the set.
    I think this is probably the way it'll go, not unlike the IS.

    But, I cannot think that the SSD is worth it to resell. Assuming it was bought at RRP, this thing has to get to $600 at the very least to make it even remotely worthwhile, but even that I would consider a failure. I cannot see this thing reaching a decent price ($800+) in the aftermarket, and would much rather stock up on sets like the SC, HE, VW van, etc.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 991
    I picked up my stack of SSD at $260 from target, as I suspect many did. SSD will be a slow climb methinks.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,782
    It sounds like FB is apparently going, but has anyone heard anything about GE?
    Is it around for another year?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 991
    I was expecting GE to go before FB. I stocked up on GE and unloaded my FB a year ago. Looks like GE will trail FB by a year give or take. Oh well.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693


    Again who knows if Amazon and Walmart are going to go at each other like last fall and have insanely low prices on these sets. That is all up in the air still I think.

    It has been confirmed there will be no more discounts for the large exclusive sets from any retailer. Best bet is to manufacture your own discounts through cashback bonus, discounted gift cards etc.
    Note though that, as of this weekend, LEGO Store in Anaheim continues to give 10% off all purchases to Disneyland annual passholders.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    ^^I'm so very curious how FB does in retirement.

    If it does poorly, do people start dumping GE and PS?

    If it does super fantastic, do people start stocking GE and PS more aggressively?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ I have sold off about 1/3 of my FB stack, the rest I'm waiting for retirement...

    I have no more GE/PS/TH left in stock and have no plans to buy any more.

    The modulars are simply being kept out too long to be interesting to me.

    The model of buying 2, keeping 1 and selling 1 later on may continue to work, but the model of buying 50 of them may no longer be viable.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,782
    I think FB will do better than most people think in retirement, but that does not mean GE or PS etc may.
    FB is a fire station and will likely be the only Mod that is.
    Therefore I see the long term of FB doing OK, despite the amount that will likely be out there. But I think the ones after do not really add a staple of LEGO in it, unless they eventually make a police station
    I also see the TH doing well in the aftermarket, because if LEGO really will not allow discounts on exclusives anymore then I do not see many people buying a 200 dollar TH.
    And once a set is gone, the value goes up. There will be those that will wait for a sale and miss it when its production run is over and have to buy one on the secondary market, or they are new fans or returning out of their dark ages and want it. I just do not see many people hording these at 200 per.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Many sets do well long term, the real question is: "How does it do 12 months post EOL?"

    If it takes 4 years to double RRP, that isn't really a good thing. :)
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited September 2013
    I think each modular, without exception, will do very well in the aftermarket, the problem is, until Lego stops producing the damn things, said aftermarket doesn't exist. We could be talking years here for each also, at which point the ROI becomes worse than other investments. I don't think I'll take the road of dumping what I have yet, but I certainly won't be buying any more unless a) EOL is clear and present or b) they are severely discounted (haha).

    In related news, Lego has done an incredible job with their recent actions, something a year ago which I would have thought impossible. They have effectively prevented me from spending tons of money on Lego. Good for them, I guess.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    The modular series is getting a little stale for me. After this new restaurant comes out, the whole line needs a shake up.

    Maybe some smaller accessories (walking bridge, monuments, park, etc) to add to the "adult Lego city idea" or a 3-in-1 building, maybe a traveling carnival or parade, or public transportation system.

    To get more people out of the dark ages, Lego will need to step their game up.
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 224
    tensor said:


    In related news, Lego has done an incredible job with their recent actions, something a year ago which I would have thought impossible. They have effectively prevented me from spending tons of money on Lego. Good for them, I guess.

    That's awesome!



  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    prevere said:

    The modular series is getting a little stale for me. After this new restaurant comes out, the whole line needs a shake up.

    Maybe some smaller accessories (walking bridge, monuments, park, etc) to add to the "adult Lego city idea" or a 3-in-1 building, maybe a traveling carnival or parade, or public transportation system.

    To get more people out of the dark ages, Lego will need to step their game up.

    Yep they are of no interest to me anymore either. I would like to see something innovative again like the Grand Carousel.

    pharmjod
  • xeeeejxeeeej Member Posts: 71

    It sounds like FB is apparently going, but has anyone heard anything about GE?
    Is it around for another year?

    Really? Seriously this time?

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    I have no idea how Fire Brigade and all the other current Modular Buildings will do after retirement. I don't know if we will see the typical 2-3x RRP on these sets. Even if we do, it will take a few years to get there.
    FollowsClosely
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    A couple of years ago it wasn't really a gamble to buy into any sets (sensible) as you knew you would get a decent return. I think the whole market has changed and rises in prices are slower than they once were. I have been really surprised at the slow rise of #10212. I am being a lot more choosey at the sets I am buying and selling. Modulars do not interest me at all now. It's far too obvious and there are a lot of people putting them away. I reckon SSD will do well but Its a big chunk of investment to sit on for a couple of years.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited September 2013
    I think the increase in the number of current sets released by TLG has had an effect, as personally I have not even looked at paying a premium for EOL sets, as I would prefer to get all the current sets that I am after first, but even that is getting hard to keep up with.

    Also with the length of time some sets are available for now, it increases the choice of sets available for those new AFOL's just coming out of their dark ages. I would assume that this segment of the market are the people most likely to pay a a premium for the typical sets that have been doing well in the aftermarket up till now.
    FollowsClosely
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 991
    Basta said:

    ...
    Also with the length of time some sets are available for now, it increases the choice of sets available for those new AFOL's just coming out of their dark...

    ^ good observation

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited September 2013
    Yeah, there hasn't been a large set retired since the IS (and Mindstorm 2.0). Currently we have 5 modulars, 6 massive SW sets, 4 Technic flagships, 2 massive creator sets, 4 massive other-theme sets (HH, AA, TO, Mindstorm 3.0). Include the Cargo Train and that's a lot of sets north of $150.

    It's amazing the variety of large sets that is currently available.

    * counting the B-wing
    ** counting #41999
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    tensor said:

    It's amazing the variety of large sets that is currently available.

    Yes, which is part of the problem.

    Why spend over RRP on a retired set when just keeping up with the 500+ sets TLG is releasing a year is hard?

    There is so much LEGO goodness these days that it has become easier to just ignore retired stuff.

    A few years ago, TLG put out half as many sets a year. Just look at the total set counts released each yet for the past 10 years, the volume of themes and product today appears to me to be at record highs.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,901
    edited September 2013

    tensor said:

    It's amazing the variety of large sets that is currently available.

    Yes, which is part of the problem.

    Or part of the solution from Lego.
    FollowsClosely
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,782
    I think the larger part to remove larger sets is LEGOs insistence of not marking down their exclusives anymore. If this holds up LEGO is going to see a steep decline in sales of the more expensive sets.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    CCC said:

    tensor said:

    It's amazing the variety of large sets that is currently available.

    Yes, which is part of the problem.

    Or part of the solution from Lego.
    It's both, and it depends on point of view.
    pharmjod
  • rwinslowrwinslow Member Posts: 3
    Does anyone know why Sungnyemun (21016) is really the only Architecture set that sold out quickly and has not been continued?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,901
    tensor said:

    CCC said:

    tensor said:

    It's amazing the variety of large sets that is currently available.

    Yes, which is part of the problem.

    Or part of the solution from Lego.
    It's both, and it depends on point of view.
    There are of course two views but considering that this is a Lego fan site, it seems strange to refer to the wide range of current sets available as a problem.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    CCC said:

    There are of course two views but considering that this is a Lego fan site, it seems strange to refer to the wide range of current sets available as a problem.

    Yes, but this is also the reseller thread. :)

    So future resale value of LEGO sets is likely to be less than it might otherwise be because of the huge number of sets TLG is releasing each year.

    Good for fans, good for TLG, bad for resellers. :)
    FollowsCloselyDad
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 991

    ...
    Yes, but this is also the reseller thread. :)
    ...

    ^ Yep!

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