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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    edited September 2013
    pharmjod said:

    I wonder if you already have a palace cinema if you call SAH would they send you the sticker if you asked? I realize all I have to do is call and I will answer that question myself, but I thought I might pose it here nonetheless. :)

    Normally, I would not be surprised if they did. But, nowadays, who knows . . .

    If they didn't, that would be "unfortunate".
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    pharmjod said:

    I wonder if you already have a palace cinema if you call SAH would they send you the sticker if you asked? I realize all I have to do is call and I will answer that question myself, but I thought I might pose it here nonetheless. :)

    Yes they will. I have one on the way as we speak, though I can see this being a 'depends on who you talk to' kind of thing.
    pharmjod
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ You see, this is where TLG is missing the boat. :)

    They should sell movie poster sticker packs for $4.99, each one has 10 unique stickers that you can swap around on your Cinema as you like. Maybe include 2 or 3 sheets so that if you double or triple up you can put up multiple posters.

    I'd think they would sell a fair number of them and the cost to make them would be nearly nothing.

    Maybe themed stickers? How about opening night for SW Ep 7? You can have all the customers come dressed up as their favorite SW character! :)
    Yellowcastlechromedigigifinim
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923

    prevere said:

    prevere said:

    ^I thought we had seen the peak to Indiana Jones two years ago, but no, it continues to climb. Not all sets, but certain ones that have shown to be harder to find.

    Which sets keep gaining and is there any consensus on their plateau?
    Ambush in Cairo, Temple Escape, Race for Stolen Treasure. Surprisingly Temple of Doom has kind of topped out at $200-$225.
    Thanks. I was starting to think @huw had me hellbanned. :o)

    I was never sold on ToD and ended up not getting it. But Ambush and Treasure are really nice, complete little sets. I'm not a reseller but I would like to think the first wave of IJ sets as a whole were as close to slam dunks as is possible.

    Of all the waves, Peril in Peru is still the one that most captures my infatuation much like the Galaxy Explorer and Imperial Trading Post from my youth. As such, I always imagined they would be the most sought after in the secondary market.

    I love Temple Escape. The funny thing with that set is the light bluish gray giant ball. It is very tough to get. I guess in most households, the dog or cat ended up with it.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    I noticed that Shanghai Surprise was about to take off, and then settled down. Always assumed it would have a great life for mod-builders that wanted some old-fashioned cars.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    ^You meant Shanghai Chase, and I agree, the cars in that are great.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290

    ^ You see, this is where TLG is missing the boat. :)

    They should sell movie poster sticker packs for $4.99, each one has 10 unique stickers that you can swap around on your Cinema as you like.

    This would be more like missing a piece of driftwood.
  • PepperPepper Wisconsin, USAMember Posts: 91
    Any predictions of the first wave of Marvel sets? Particularly #6866 and #6867?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    rocao said:

    This would be more like missing a piece of driftwood.

    Or a deck chair from the Titanic...

    Er... somehow that fits, somehow...
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    Stop talking about IJ sets...I havent picked them up yet, and they arent outside my price threshold as of now... :P
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    edited September 2013

    They should sell movie poster sticker packs for $4.99, each one has 10 unique stickers that you can swap around on your Cinema as you like. Maybe include 2 or 3 sheets so that if you double or triple up you can put up multiple posters.

    This is basically what I did for my theater MOC I did last year before the PC was announced. I printed all of the LEGO posters (HP, SW, Avengers etc) on my photo printer in the size of the 1x4x5 window and then put two window frames back to back with the sheets between the glass on each window. Didn't use stickers so I don't have to replace anything. Just pop the window out and put a new movie poster in when I want to.
    BoiseStatePitfall69gifinim
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM IrelandMember Posts: 966
    edited September 2013
    prevere said:

    I love Temple Escape. The funny thing with that set is the light bluish gray giant ball. It is very tough to get. I guess in most households, the dog or cat ended up with it.

    I love Temple Escape too, it was the last Indy set on my wanted list and my other half managed to get me one for Christmas just last year. The grey ball is my least favourite part of the set, though. I wish it was brick built like on the cover of the first IJ video game.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    @Steve_J_OM every time I see a post from you all I see is Steve Jobs ;)
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited September 2013
    ^ "I see dead people"

    Edit: jut thought a movie quote was needed, seen as it's @Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Ha. Yeah. Good one.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I noticed that Monster Fighters The Mummy and also #6868 Hulk's Helicarrier Breakout are "call to check availability" at [email protected] Does a "sold out" status usually follow soon after?
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited September 2013
    ^ I believe these two you mentioned are done. Any Monster Fighters and first wave of DC and Marvel Super Heroes sets that go out of stock right now, can be considered fully retired, in my opinion. Unless they find some extras on a warehouse somewhere...
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    coolpix said:

    ^ I believe these two you mentioned are done. Any Monster Fighters and first wave of DC and Marvel Super Heroes sets that go out of stock right now, can be considered fully retired, in my opinion. Unless they find some extras on a warehouse somewhere...

    #9467 & #9468 are both OOS at US [email protected] Wonder if they will find some extra copies for halloween...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Not a prediction but I figure this is the reselling thread so WTH. As the buying season approaches for those of you who want to maximize discounts don't forget to register your Discover cards for the extra 5% online cash back bonus starting October on your first $1500 per card. This will get you 11% back total on [email protected] or Walmart purchases. Already have a Discover card?....time to apply for more and sign up each card to max out this deal.

    Also do not forget the Amex deal again this year for small business Saturday in November. I know there are a few folks in Oregon on this board so hit up those Bricks and Minifig stores. $25 statement credit back on $25 or greater purchases (you must register your amex card prior under the promo to score this deal). If you have a real Amex card (not a branded BOA or other hack bank) add those authorized users to get 3 extra cards per account (each one will have a different card number so you are good to go...bonus tidbit - amex does not really verify the socials of authorized users...woof!).

    Tis the season to be saving.
    itsnotme
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    So do you guys think the man trying to corner the market on the #41999 will make a difference? Is Technics too niche? I know he is offering up to about $375-$400 a set (shipped). And he says he'll buy as many as 50 of them. That $80,000 if he's just trying to get 1% of them.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    ^ I think he's going to have to hold them for a long time. And I honestly think he's taking a big ( foolish imo ) gamble. But good luck to him. The UK price is climbing back to pushing £400. See what happens at Christmas, will there be more on the market? Not sure because people were quick flipping them. Last time I looked there were only 7 ebay listings in the UK
    Anyone who has bought at retail has so much scope to undercut him ( obviously ) and for the price he is paying, to turn a good profit he is venturing into the market where there is a reduced amount of people who will pay that money or the fact that people think how much other Lego can they buy for that price. Eggs in one basket springs to mind here. Dangerous game!!



  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    What's the eBay username of the guy buying them all up?
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    I was thinking that he might be able to make an impact on cornering/limiting the resellers competition. For instance,

    20,000 made
    maybe 5,000 were opened
    5,000 bought by resellers, of which they will sell one, and keep one for themselves.

    Once you take the shelved and opened ones out of the equation, it's a much smaller number than 20,000. That said, there doesn't seem to be any shortage of 41999 for sale on ebay or amazon.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    ^ No way can he do that. There are plenty of people out there with up to 10 each of these bought at RRP. Not everyone just got 2.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Plenty of profit to be had for these in Europe and Asia. I have not sold a single one to a US buyer...come to think of it I have not sold any sets to US buyers in a long time....good times:)
    jcb193
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    Gavin83 said:

    What's the eBay username of the guy buying them all up?

    You can find out if you do your detective work but it's not right to name him on here unless he's doing something wrong.

  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    Ok fair enough. He's not doing anything wrong, I was just curious as I recently sold a 41999 on eBay and was curious if he bid on it at all.
  • BalloonistBalloonist Member Posts: 56
    Gavin,
    Check your inbox
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    No need to find him, if you have a 41999 for sale for $425[S] or lower, he'll find you :)
    DadCoraHarrison
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    By the way is it really true that out of the 20000 sets made of #41999 only 5000 was allocated to Europe and most of the rest to the US?

    Is demand for Technic really that much higher in the US? It kind of surprised me. To me Technic seems stronger here while in the US it's a retailer exclusive altogether with quite limited availability because of that.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Demand for Technic is alot higher in Europe than the USA but there are alot more resellers in the USA.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Not a big fan of these numbered sets (or figs). I hope TLG doesn't come back to this collectibles marketing tactic for a long time.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    As the seasonale sets are now available at [email protected] and PO #10222 ist still marked as retired can we now assume that PO is gone for good?
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    edited September 2013

    Demand for Technic is alot higher in Europe than the USA but there are alot more resellers in the USA.

    So you are basically saying that TLG made the allocation this way so that US based resellers could make money by selling these on to where the real demand is?
    bp10030 said:

    As the seasonale sets are now available at [email protected] and PO #10222 ist still marked as retired can we now assume that PO is gone for good?

    You could assume that a long time ago. It's gone.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    bp10030 said:

    As the seasonale sets are now available at [email protected] and PO #10222 ist still marked as retired can we now assume that PO is gone for good?

    If so, I am shocked that this got 1 year only. Bakery only got 1.5 years. Maybe they need to a Winter Village Death Star, that way I have YEARS to save up for it.

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited September 2013
    bp10030 said:

    As the seasonal sets are now available at [email protected], and PO #10222 is still marked as retired, can we now assume that PO is gone for good?

    I fixed your grammar.

    The answer is no, you can't assume anything with Lego and retiring. What's on Lego's site when you look at it means little more than the situation at that exact point in time.

    Is it likely gone for good? I think it is from production, but who knows if they'll find a couple pallets in a warehouse.

    Btw @prevere, if it is retired (which I think it is actually), the TS, the Bakery and the PO may have had only 1.5 total years out, but they each had two full xmas seasons, which is what really counts for these sets.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ the TS had 3 full Christmas season, and the Bakery made it into mid December of last year (season 3), so the Post Office definitely went early by comparison.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    If it is not available Oct 1st with the new market then I would call it retired. Until then the labels on [email protected] or on shelves instore mean nothing.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited September 2013
    dougts said:

    ^ the TS had 3 full Christmas season, and the Bakery made it into mid December of last year (season 3), so the Post Office definitely went early by comparison.

    True, I guess all of them had 3-season run potentials. The TS lasted until just after xmas (3 seasons) and the Bakery didn't make it until xmas, so it stopped at 2, same with the Post Office, but even sooner.

    I wonder how long the Cottage will last.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Lego [email protected] "found" some Bakeries last year and I quickly placed an order over the phone and grabbed a few. There is a chance that the same will happen this year for the Post Office.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ the fact that the Bakery made it from October to mid-December in year 3 qualifies as a Christmas season to me. Only last-minute shoppers didn't have a chance at it.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited September 2013
    I ordered my Winter Village Bakeries from US [email protected] on Jan 3, 2013.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    tensor said:

    bp10030 said:

    As the seasonal sets are now available at [email protected], and PO #10222 is still marked as retired, can we now assume that PO is gone for good?

    I fixed your grammar.

    The answer is no, you can't assume anything with Lego and retiring. What's on Lego's site when you look at it means little more than the situation at that exact point in time.

    Is it likely gone for good? I think it is from production, but who knows if they'll find a couple pallets in a warehouse.

    Btw @prevere, if it is retired (which I think it is actually), the TS, the Bakery and the PO may have had only 1.5 total years out, but they each had two full xmas seasons, which is what really counts for these sets.
    Barely.

    Post Office - Availability at LEGO.com
    United States 04 Oct 11 - 09 Dec 12
    $69.99
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The first of a series usually does really well, but as more and more of a series is added, it becomes questionable if the follow up sets will do as well.

    For example, I doubt anyone expects FB to repeat CC at this point.

    WTS has done very well, and it was actually out for 3 years, I doubt WPO or WB will do nearly as well.

    The thing is, Winter Cottage and Winter Market are now out and with 5 winter sets to pick from, how many people really have space for all 5 of them?

    Or at some point, do people just pick 2 or 3 and stick with those?

    In such a case, buy the two current ones for a lot less than the retired sets. :)

    Time will tell if I'm correct on that or not. Of course they'll all go up a bit, I'm more referring to the doubling in price within a year we saw on WTS.

    Will we see WPO at $140 this Christmas? I doubt it. But we'll see. :)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    The Winter Village series has a unique draw from the "collectable village" people. i.e. Dept 56 villages and others. Many people dedicate a lot of space every year to such displays. From their perspective, 5 sets is not much of a village to display. And compared to the porcelain village pieces, Lego is not expensive -- even at after market prices.
    Pitfall69FollowsCloselythenos
  • morezonemorezone Member Posts: 207
    edited September 2013

    Will we see WPO at $140 this Christmas? I doubt it. But we'll see. :)

    I think it will. I sold my 2 last month for £90 (UK retail @£50) and there's still a few months till Xmas. Then again, resellers might flood the market closer to the time. But there does seem to be a lot less interest in the bakery though.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    gmpirate said:

    The Winter Village series has a unique draw from the "collectable village" people. i.e. Dept 56 villages and others. Many people dedicate a lot of space every year to such displays. From their perspective, 5 sets is not much of a village to display. And compared to the porcelain village pieces, Lego is not expensive -- even at after market prices.

    I love Dept 56. They destroy the molds after each run in November. Very cool collectibles.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    All fair points when it comes to the Winter line.

    I do think there is a reserve of Post Office and Bakery sets that aren't yet listed online that will come online during Christmas.

    Some prices go up, but sometimes for Christmas prices can go down as sellers try to capture those all important Christmas sales.

    After all, if I have 2 or 3 of them to sell, I can set my price and wait for it, if I have 50 or 100 to sell, I need to be priced to sell during Christmas, whatever that price might be. All it takes is 2 or 3 of those type sellers to run the price down a bit during Christmas. :)
  • HarryPotterLoverHarryPotterLover Member Posts: 238
    At US [email protected] there was no add to bag area on the WVM page???
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