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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    gmpirate said:

    The flip side of the argument now is will we be be able to purchase more DS's at discount anymore? Most of my stock was purchased at 20% off (approx). So to recoup my money now, less selling stock for no profit, only to purchase again later?? Worth it?

    Depends on how you run your business (or hobby).

    I had 30 DS on the shelf a few months ago, that is a lot of cash just sitting around waiting and waiting.

    Christmas is coming, I have things to buy that I can sell this year and make money on, I might have to replace the DS at full price (or I might not replace it at all, don't know yet), but if I earn 50% on my money now, losing 10% on DS makes perfect sense to get the cash back.

    I've had way too much inventory sitting around, TLG has extended sets long after I thought they would be gone. Oh well, deals for everyone! :)
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Anyone know why the DS still keeps going and not sets like the Imperial Shuttle?
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Speaking of the Imperial Shuttle, anyone know roughly when it retired?
  • tom4086tom4086 Member Posts: 689
    ^ Roughly? Do a search and you'll find the countdown when Amazon sold out its remaining stock :)
    FollowsCloselyLegoFanTexascloaked7Pitfall69
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654



    Depends on how you run your business (or hobby).

    I had 30 DS on the shelf a few months ago, that is a lot of cash just sitting around waiting and waiting.

    Very true. I have half of what you "had". Double that I would feel a little more pressured to unload as well.

    Part of it is just seeing how Lego has so many active sets right now and hoping they feel the strain and run short. The other part is that I just don't have the time to be flipping and rolling to constantly to maximize my growth.

    I tend to balance things by holding on to exclusives, htf's and flagship sets long term and flipping smaller sets & extraordinary deals yearly.
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    About January 2013
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748

    Anyone know why the DS still keeps going and not sets like the Imperial Shuttle?

    Probably because its one of their best sellers, so why retire a set that consistently sells well? Imperial Shuttle had a 2 year shelf life and it was rarely in the top sellers of Lego, that also reflects in the aftermarket. I got a few too many Imperial Shuttles and find them hard to trade, they are a slow seller.

    It will make me think twice about such high value sets, even the Death Star unless I can get it at half price which is unlikely. The Super star detroyer when retired will probably be a slower seller post EOL than Imperial shuttle even with at least 1/3 off. From a personal point of view Im swaying away from UCS unless its for my own use and sticking to sets that I know will do well EOL.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I agree I would not touch SSD unless I got it for 50% off for reselling purposes. I will buy one to keep in my collection but that is all. Hopefully TLG will blow them out in the US at 50% off just like they did with the B-Wing. If not then the end of 2013 is shaping up to be an extremely poor time to get any sets worth investing in IMO...I made pay with 41999 so I will probably just hold back the nice sets that EOL'd 2012 for another season.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I doubt that we will see the SSD blown out at 50%. I suspect Lego has kept supply at a minimum and it will slowly fade away over the next six months.
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    Hi All,

    It's been a while, just wondered what everyones opinion on the resale market of Pirates of the Caribbean... Do you believe you could base the value on similar Harry Potter sets?

    Thanks,

    Cora. :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,174
    edited September 2013
    PoTC and Potter are a bit hard to judge IMO.
    PoTC would probably pick up IF they do the next movie that has been kicked about, and they do not just redo all of the sets from the past line (like some of the potter sets were, the ones that did not though climbed in price big time). As for HP.. there is a debate as to if the sets will increase in price much more as it is out of the public eye in terms of movies or new books.
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242

    PoTC and Potter are a bit hard to judge IMO.
    PoTC would probably pick up IF they do the next movie that has been kicked about, and they do not just redo all of the sets from the past line (like some of the potter sets were, the ones that did not though climbed in price big time). As for HP.. there is a debate as to if the sets will increase in price much more as it is out of the public eye in terms of movies or new books.

    I think Potter has reached his peak, but I believe we haven't seen the same peak from PoTC at least not yet anyway, so you think that maybe something which is dependent on the possibility of the next movie cool, thanks.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited September 2013
    ^I thought we had seen the peak to Indiana Jones two years ago, but no, it continues to climb. Not all sets, but certain ones that have shown to be harder to find.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    Hi All,

    It's been a while, just wondered what everyones opinion on the resale market of Pirates of the Caribbean... Do you believe you could base the value on similar Harry Potter sets?

    Thanks,

    Cora. :)

    The two ships from POTC will do ok, the rest are junk. HP is in a class of its own so you cannot compare. Good luck.

  • PoochyPoochy USAMember Posts: 479
    ^^^ I read somewhere this morning (maybe on cnn.com) that the next POTC movie has been pushed out to 2016 (at the earliest).
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    The two ships from POTC will do ok, the rest are junk. HP is in a class of its own so you cannot compare. Good luck.

    ^ This, full stop.

    Diagon Alley has a long way to go in the climb, it isn't even close to the top.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,174
    edited September 2013
    Time will tell but I do not see the glass as half full for Potter unless something else increases its visibility in the near future, which does not appear likely to occur.
    Even then those who have 20 castles and 20 alleys better hope LEGO does not re-release those in a line if they do bring Potter back (which they will most certainly do at least with the castle, and I am fairly certain that castles before the latest tend not to do as well). Will they rise? Probably this winter, but then I see it evening out, just like Potter did when the first line stopped before the re-issues (and that was also when books were still being made, mind you). Now the sets that were not re-done skyrocketed in price because LEGO did not redo them.
    Shrieking shack and Graveyard duel went through the roof, but only after LEGO re-introduced the line and video games, before then those sets were sitting at a relatively low price on the secondary market and that was BEFORE all of the speculators started hording sets.
    So again to me that is debatable as to it climbing by leaps and bounds.
    How many people are hording DA and HC, and will those stocks run out before the demand falls.
    Do not get me wrong I still see these being worth it if you got them for retail or under, and they likely will increase in price, I just do not see huge jump for them that apparently others do.

    As for PoTC, I should have noted the ships are what will be going up. The ships will definitely be worth it in the long run (As long as the QAR and BP are not redone that is if LEGO does another line), because they will appeal to those who like the LEGO pirate line has (especially if LEGO brings back the standard pirate line with new sets), but I think even the London Escape and White cap bay may go for something, as long as you got them on heavy discount anyway.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Time will tell but I do not see the glass as half full for Potter unless something else increases its visibility in the near future, which does not appear likely to occur.

    HP has entered the realm of LOTR, it doesn't require new material to become something that gets passed down to the next generation.

    It has that *something* special, magic, that you just can't force or make, but that will keep it around for a long time to come.

    The books continue to be purchased and read in huge numbers. The paperback set of HP on Amazon sells 50+ copies a day.

    Considering the number sold to date, that is pretty impressive.

    Even then those who have 20 castles and 20 alleys better hope LEGO does not re-release those in a line if they do bring Potter back

    TLG had the license with Warner Brothers, not the book publisher, so unless new movies come out or an all new deal gets done, we won't see any more HP LEGO.

    Probably this winter, but then I see it evening out, just like Potter did when the first line stopped before the re-issues

    That was another time in LEGO reselling.
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    There is no comparison between POTC and Harry Potter. The ships will do well, but not as well as Hogwarts Castle will do. I expect Hogwarts Castle to sell for $300+ during the holidays.

    As LFT said, HP doesn't need any new material to keep it popular. Universal Studios and the WB movie set gets tins of visitors every year.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,232
    prevere said:

    ^I thought we had seen the peak to Indiana Jones two years ago, but no, it continues to climb. Not all sets, but certain ones that have shown to be harder to find.

    Which sets keep gaining and is there any consensus on their plateau?

  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Don't overlook the minifig driven potc sets. Isla de muerta and the fountain of youth will have solid gains for being recognizable scenes with the important minifigs.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited September 2013
    On a side note, kind of surprised that #8038 Battle of Endor hasn't improved in value much with the release of the Ewok Village set. Seems like a really nice set, I mean it includes a building, some vehicles and 12 figures! I think it would compliment an Endor setting quite nicely.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Battle of Endor... yea, it should be doing well, but it isn't...

    I did a side-by-side comparison, the age of the minifigs in that set shows.

    Look at the top of the box for Battle of Endor and for Ewok Village, the minifigs are clearly from two different generations.

    I saved one Battle of Endor to build with Ewok Village, but frankly they are from different times and don't match up very well IMHO. The scale is actually not bad, but they don't look "right" somehow.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited September 2013


    How many people are hording DA and HC, and will those stocks run out before the demand falls.
    Do not get me wrong I still see these being worth it if you got them for retail or under, and they likely will increase in price...

    I don't get your theory. I bought a few Hogwarts Castles for under retail and I just sold a damaged box for $255 to a fellow Bricksetter... How is that not a good return on your investment, even at RRP?

    I still can't keep any of my used HP sets in stock.

  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    I too am surprised by Battle For Endor. You've got a ton of minifigs, I good playset, and an AT-ST. But I guess like Hoth Echo base, it's just not as impressive once built.
  • richlrichl NYCMember Posts: 246
    What a difference a day makes; yesterday there was a discussion of what would happen to HP resale prices without movies and today new movies in that world are announced...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    richl said:

    What a difference a day makes; yesterday there was a discussion of what would happen to HP resale prices without movies and today new movies in that world are announced...

    You had me excited for a second! But this is not a Harry Potter film. Brand new series with different characters, and set in the USA. IMO it has train wreck all over it. A sequel with the Potter and Weasely kids would have been a slam dunk...I guess both Rowling and WB are tired of making money lol.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    ^You could be right, but due to the connection with HP & JK I think it will make money no matter how bad it is.
    binaryeye
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734

    A sequel with the Potter and Weasely kids would have been a slam dunk...I guess both Rowling and WB are tired of making money lol.

    I imagine Rowling feels it's not worth devaluing the existing material for the sake of money. Harry Potter fans should be happy she's not like George Lucas.
    cloaked7pharmjodMathBuilder
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,144
    As far as discontinuing...I recently heard that the PoTC movie has been delayed with its release, anyone have any info as to the next wave of sets for this awful, I mean, pirate theme? Or will we see it EOL'ed soon. Thoughts/Concerns???
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited September 2013
    Pirates 5 has definitely delayed to 2016, mostly because 2015 is insanely packed as is with tentpoles (Avengers 2, Star Wars VII, Batman Loves Superman).
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 7,007
    The word is script problems are the issue with Pirates 6. Not that it stopped them last couple times of course...
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    What kind of issues could you possible have with the script. Dress Johnny Depp as a pirate, have him act like Keith Richards, give him a ship, hijinx ensure. This stuff practically writes itself!!
    SupersympaPepper
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,979
    edited September 2013

    richl said:

    What a difference a day makes; yesterday there was a discussion of what would happen to HP resale prices without movies and today new movies in that world are announced...

    You had me excited for a second! But this is not a Harry Potter film. Brand new series with different characters, and set in the USA. IMO it has train wreck all over it. A sequel with the Potter and Weasely kids would have been a slam dunk...I guess both Rowling and WB are tired of making money lol.
    The difference, though, is that she is heavily invested in this world. She is writing the screenplay, because she couldn't imagine another person writing her characters.

    Considering how meticulous she has been with the brand (with Pottermore to me being one place she wasn't), I don't see this as a train wreck at all.

    She is a smart enough woman, with tons of stories of her world. She isn't a George Lukas who is going to go Jar Jar on us.
    cardgenius
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^What did Jar Jar ever do to you? ;)
    FollowsCloselyjasorLegoFanTexas
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Will the LEGO movie poster sticker on the Palace Cinema add to the value much long term? Or will that sticker appear in the majority of sets making the earlier versions more profitable?
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    tamamahm said:


    ...
    She is a smart enough woman, with tons of stories of her world. She isn't a George Lukas who is going to go Jar Jar on us.

    Considering the source material is titled "Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them", Jar Jar would fit right in the movie
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923

    prevere said:

    ^I thought we had seen the peak to Indiana Jones two years ago, but no, it continues to climb. Not all sets, but certain ones that have shown to be harder to find.

    Which sets keep gaining and is there any consensus on their plateau?

    Ambush in Cairo, Temple Escape, Race for Stolen Treasure. Surprisingly Temple of Doom has kind of topped out at $200-$225.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Trenth said:

    Will the LEGO movie poster sticker on the Palace Cinema add to the value much long term? Or will that sticker appear in the majority of sets making the earlier versions more profitable?

    Interesting question, and I'm waiting to see what happens price-wise with the VC with glowing stickers/non-glowing stickers, or a non-glowing VC with a glowing sticker sheet included on the side, etc. At the end of the day, however, I think it'll be like putting in a deck on your house. It normally doesn't add any value to the home per se, but it does make your home stand out from others, which could translate to more $.

    For example, two PCs on ebay, both the same price, everything else pretty much equal. One comes with a sticker, one does not. Which do you think will be chosen?
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    wagnerml2 said:

    What kind of issues could you possible have with the script. Dress Johnny Depp as a pirate, have him act like Keith Richards, give him a ship, hijinx ensure. This stuff practically writes itself!!

    Or in the case of the 3rd movie you dress Keith Richards up as a Johnny Depp pirate and have him act like Keith Richards.
    wagnerml2LegoFanTexas
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    tensor said:

    Trenth said:

    Will the LEGO movie poster sticker on the Palace Cinema add to the value much long term? Or will that sticker appear in the majority of sets making the earlier versions more profitable?

    Interesting question, and I'm waiting to see what happens price-wise with the VC with glowing stickers/non-glowing stickers, or a non-glowing VC with a glowing sticker sheet included on the side, etc. At the end of the day, however, I think it'll be like putting in a deck on your house. It normally doesn't add any value to the home per se, but it does make your home stand out from others, which could translate to more $.

    For example, two PCs on ebay, both the same price, everything else pretty much equal. One comes with a sticker, one does not. Which do you think will be chosen?
    Pardon my ignorance, but what is the deal with the movie sticker? I heard something about it, but didn't think much about it.



  • richlrichl NYCMember Posts: 246
    ^ If you buy the Cinema from now until December you get an extra sticker for the LEGO Movie that's coming out next year so you can display it on the theater. It's detailed on the Cinemas [email protected] page.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Thank you. I still haven't bought one yet, so I guess now I should go ahead and grab one or two.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Dang, me too. Although it probably doesn't make sense since we'd be sitting too long on it.

    note: Had to check which forum I was in before saying that so not to offend.
    Pitfall69Yellowcastle
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^I wouldn't be grabbing more than 1 for resale. I'm going to build it and display it and I want another sealed for my collection. It would be lunacy to buy now for resale.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Of course we would need a buyer willing to pay, but such a set should command a hefty premium for such a long period of time.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,232
    prevere said:

    prevere said:

    ^I thought we had seen the peak to Indiana Jones two years ago, but no, it continues to climb. Not all sets, but certain ones that have shown to be harder to find.

    Which sets keep gaining and is there any consensus on their plateau?
    Ambush in Cairo, Temple Escape, Race for Stolen Treasure. Surprisingly Temple of Doom has kind of topped out at $200-$225.
    Thanks. I was starting to think @huw had me hellbanned. :o)

    I was never sold on ToD and ended up not getting it. But Ambush and Treasure are really nice, complete little sets. I'm not a reseller but I would like to think the first wave of IJ sets as a whole were as close to slam dunks as is possible.

    Of all the waves, Peril in Peru is still the one that most captures my infatuation much like the Galaxy Explorer and Imperial Trading Post from my youth. As such, I always imagined they would be the most sought after in the secondary market.

  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    edited September 2013
    I wonder if you already have a palace cinema if you call SAH would they send you the sticker if you asked? I realize all I have to do is call and I will answer that question myself, but I thought I might pose it here nonetheless. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I missed the boat on IJ sets. That was a bad time financially for a lot of people here in the US. Business was slow and I didn't have a lot if disposable cash. Then my wife got pregnant and had to pay for everything out of pocket. Lego sets took a back seat unfortunately.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Best used lot I ever bought was about 25 lbs and it contained a near complete Temple Escape and Lost Tomb. Picked up the missing bits, cleaned them up for sale and practically paid for the entire lot. That one spoiled me. Temple Escape is really neat; I mean how much more iconic can you get, Indy grabbing the statue and running from the boulder?
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