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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I guess that is why maybe we haven't gotten a good Star Wars Cantina set. All the patrons are drinking, gambling and smoking. I don't see a Dannik Jerikko minifigure in our future.
  • cardgeniuscardgenius Member Posts: 153
    gmpirate said:

    ^ If it weren't for sports I'd probably cancel DirectTV. Even then, I'm not sure I see enough to justify the expense.

    That was the main reason I held off from canceling cable for so long. But with a good HD Antenna I don't miss much and the savings make up for it when I do($150/month).

    We only watch a handful of shows now and get those from the Apple TV or PS3. We do have Netflix but the kids are the ones who use it mostly.
    FollowsClosely
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Cigars are worse than weapons, they, like, can kill people.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    vitreolum said:

    Cigars are worse than weapons, they, like, can kill people.

    As proven by the A-Team TV show that is the case. Hannibal was much more likely to die from the cigar than anyone was from gunfire.

  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    Breaking Bad last night!!!! And the week before, and the week before that... 3 episodes left!
  • BrewBrew New Mexico (It's an actual state in the US)Member Posts: 182
    graphite said:

    ^ Does LEGO provide the "spice" in any of its sets?

    Well, the VW Camper Van has a lava lamp and a 'pot'ted plant...
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited September 2013
    graphite said:

    vitreolum said:

    Cigars are worse than weapons, they, like, can kill people.

    As proven by the A-Team TV show that is the case. Hannibal was much more likely to die from the cigar than anyone was from gunfire.

    Lol The A-Team was like the GI JOE cartoon series: for as many rounds fired, it was a miracle no one ever got shot.

    Also, didn't George Peppard die of lung cancer ?

  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850


    Hell yeah. 4 or 5 sets. BA and van, Face and vette, Murdock in a ward room, Decker and another MP in a military jeep and Hannibal with a cigar (and maybe something else).


    @graphite - Complete with an instantly available acetylene torch and a 'flipping' function for every vehicle. :-)

  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    ^ Exactly. Maybe the Hannibal set could be the school bus with the makeshift armor plating with flip down panels hiding gun turrets. The could even use the school bus they'll probably do for the Simpsons and just add on some grey plates.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    Brew said:

    graphite said:

    ^ Does LEGO provide the "spice" in any of its sets?

    Well, the VW Camper Van has a lava lamp and a 'pot'ted plant...
    Jabba has a bong.

    Pitfall69BrickarmorDougout
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    graphite said:

    ^ Exactly. Maybe the Hannibal set could be the school bus with the makeshift armor plating with flip down panels hiding gun turrets. The could even use the school bus they'll probably do for the Simpsons and just add on some grey plates.

    "I love it when a plan comes together" ;-)
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    JamesJT said:


    Jabba has a bong.

    Jabba's a giant slug smoking a frog'in'a'bong. Nothing wrong there. But Hannibal with a cigar... the horror... the horror.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    ^ I don't think it's a frog...
  • LootefiskLootefisk Member Posts: 67
    tensor said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    Han Solo can transport "spice", but Hannibal can't have a cigar?

    You can't make a good Corellian Pesto without some "spice."
    Are the rumors true that the Falcon made the Kessel run in less than 8 Parsnips?
    Pitfall69LegoFanTexas
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Wow. That was fast. He mustard been in a curry.
    LegoManiaccdneul
  • klatu003klatu003 Hobbiton, Shire, Middle EarthMember Posts: 725
    This discussion now resembles a skit from the The Firesign Theatre.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I don't know about that, but Lando just made a dill with the Empire.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Thyme after thyme this thread goes off on weird tangents.
    dougts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Maybe I should turmeric things back around.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    Trenth said:

    Thyme after thyme this thread goes off on weird tangents.

    Yet we all keep cumin back for more.

    dougtsTrenth
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Ha. That pun was pretty clover.
    dougts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited September 2013
    I think now would be a good time to sell the Zombies now that Monster Fighters is on the way out???

    Also, do we know 100% that Winter Villiage Post will be back or not?
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    ^^ Just a guess, but if the PO was coming back I would have expected it to be listed on [email protected] for a Sept 16th rerelease date along with the cottage.

    It's listed as retired. I'm taking that literally.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    If I had any zombies Sets i would be selling them now. Not saying its going to drop but I think most or all of the gains are already there
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    I have some of my Zombies #9465 listed, only Australian seller on eBay with them for sale at the moment.

    This set isn't as popular here as in the US so not sure how they will go even though price wise I am very competitive. There appears to be alot more listed in the US than there was a few weeks ago.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I'm sure you will see a lot more listings the closer we get to Halloween. One may argue it is a bad time to sell the set as sellers may be undercutting each other so that their copies sell.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    edited September 2013
    CircleK said:

    Trenth said:

    Thyme after thyme this thread goes off on weird tangents.

    Yet we all keep cumin back for more.

    That's the reason we all keep comin' back for more.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Yeah, but I don't think the spice puns were mint to be in this thread ;)
    CircleK
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^ Such a sage advice. You are parsley correct sir, but I could not mustard the will to look away
    Pitfall69
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 873
    Stop peppering this thread with distractions!
    Pitfall69
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Anybody have any thoughts on when the Arkham Asylum could go EOL?
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Not in the near future.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444

    Anybody have any thoughts on when the Arkham Asylum could go EOL?

    It hasn't been out that long. Sets are on the shelves a lot longer than they used to be. I would think no earlier than Christmas 2015.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,037
    Pitfall69 said:

    Anybody have any thoughts on when the Arkham Asylum could go EOL?

    It hasn't been out that long. Sets are on the shelves a lot longer than they used to be. I would think no earlier than Christmas 2015.
    That set was release late December 2012. Following the 2 year rule it could go next Christmas, 2014. I would not count on it being available all through 2015.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Do sets follow the 2 year rule anymore? Especially a large set?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited September 2013
    Has any set in the last 2 years followed the 2 year rule?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,037
    ^ All valid points. But, I would not count on sets being around three years. If you want the set pick it up before the two year mark. I will stock up on the Asylum no later than this time next fall 2014.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,037
    After some more thought: Is 3 the new 2? It may be, I need a bit more data.

    Speaking of data, TH has been out longer than MS already.

    ms 10/24/07 04/14/09 538 days 1.5 years
    cc 10/24/07 12/06/09 774 days 2.1 years
    gg 03/05/08 11/08/09 613 days 1.7 years
    fb 09/12/09 09/10/13 1459 days 4.0 years
    ge 03/03/10 09/10/13 1287 days 3.5 years
    ps 05/12/11 09/10/13 852 days 2.3 years
    th 03/03/12 09/10/13 556 days 1.5 years
    pc 02/14/13 09/10/13 208 days 0.6 years

    DS 06/10/08 09/10/13 1918 days 5.3 years
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    And DS will be more than 6 years by the time it does go.

    Which is why I've been slowly selling off my stack. I'm down to 6 left believe it or not. Anyone want one for $380 shipped? :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    The question that hasn't been fully answered is: Does a longer shelf life mean a slower growth in the aftermarket? MMV - yes. But we will know more when DS and FB retire. That will set the expectations for other larger exclusive sets.
    FollowsClosely
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    Pitfall69 said:

    Yeah, but I don't think the spice puns were mint to be in this thread ;)

    Especially considering traditional pesto has no spices in it... ;)
    prevere said:

    But we will know more when DS and FB retire. That will set the expectations for other larger exclusive sets.

    I'm not a reseller, so this probably doesn't count for much, but I think using either of these, especially DS, as an indicator for "stand-alone" exclusives (e.g. Sopwith Camel, VW Camper Van) would be dangerous.
    FollowsCloselyvitreolum
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    #10219 was a year and a half, as was #4195
    #4842 was 2 years almost on the dot
    #10213 and #10231 together comprised two and a half years
    #10212 was uncannily predictable

    Those are just a few obvious gems from last year, which makes this year's pickin's seem all the slimmer. PS is 2+ now, which means nothing. Now if R2D2 doesn't last the season that would be interesting.
    FollowsClosely
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    prevere said:

    The question that hasn't been fully answered is: Does a longer shelf life mean a slower growth in the aftermarket? MMV - yes. But we will know more when DS and FB retire. That will set the expectations for other larger exclusive sets.

    I think using DS as an indicator would be folly. Even if it lasts eight years, unless it's immediately replaced by another Death Star, I think it will get to at least $600 very quickly.

    Transversely, I don't think Fire Brigade will hit $225 until its first post-EOL Christmas or so, so I think it's a better 'new expectations setter.'
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Another thought on DS is that if it retires and takes off immediately, that would surprise many of us, right? If these large exclusives remain on the market for 3-4 years (especially the modulars), and very few of us stockpile (say GE, PS, TH, PC especially), don't those sets have the possibility of doing well quickly?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^I mentioned it back in this thread somewhere (probably a hundred or so pages ago), but I think the Death Star is a good example of a set where the pendulum has swung the other way, where everyone is expecting it to continue to be around forever - not to mention it's a difficult set to stockpile to begin with due to space and cost restrictions.

    And people like LFT, thinning out their stock because they're sick of waiting for it to retire shouldn't be discounted either. Though I imagine LFT will stock back up when we get closer to a perceived EOL date, I would guess that many other LEGO prospectors won't.

    As always, I may well be way off on this assertion, but I think DS is very likely to be an outlier in terms of 'post-EOL performance of sets that hung around for way too long.'
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited September 2013
    ^LFT has plenty of storage space. Why would he thin his stock that he bought at a discount and then buy more at RRP toward EOL?
    .
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    I think there are a lot of novice lego sellers that have stockpiled DS. Might be awhile before they get thinned out. I would imagine it's one of the first sets that a new investor grabs, no?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^LFT has plenty of storage space. Why would he thin his stock that he bought at a discount and then buy more at RRP toward EOL?
    .

    :) Because I can use the cash now to buy stuff that I can earn a profit on now, the rebuy the sets later if I want.

    I actually just moved into a larger space, I'm not just growing for the sake of LEGO, I do sell other items and will be using some of that space for other items, but it is true that my LEGO stock continues to grow as well.

    I think DS will rise, but slower than it would have had it retired 18 months ago. 18 months from now, another ball game.

    What will happen? Who knows, there is no track record to go on, only our hunches and best guesses.

    I do know that DS has become unpredictable and I like predictable. There are other sets to buy now that have more reliable rates of return.
    vitreolum
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited September 2013
    ^Not me. I don't own a single one due to the super long shelf life, price point and size. I'm guessing that some folks are dropping their inventory on this set because it's just a reselling tease. I think I would personally have 3-4 Horizon Express trains (for example) which would take up the same amount of space (I think) but have the potential to provide a bigger return on investment (comparing to Maersk Train performance).

    Plus, I'm thinking you would have a wider audience of consumers with 4 train sets at around $200-$250 (estimated eol value) than 1 Star Wars set at $600+.

    I could be way off but that's my thinking.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654

    And DS will be more than 6 years by the time it does go.

    Which is why I've been slowly selling off my stack. I'm down to 6 left believe it or not. Anyone want one for $380 shipped? :)

    The flip side of the argument now is will we be be able to purchase more DS's at discount anymore? Most of my stock was purchased at 20% off (approx). So to recoup my money now, less selling stock for no profit, only to purchase again later?? Worth it?

    If Lego temporarily runs out in the short term, I would probably dump them, but I probably won't bother otherwise.
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