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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162

    tensor said:

    As for the right price, there is no right price, only what you can get it for. That involves you being a) aware of the smokin' deal, b) prepared to act on it and c) not being too late to the party before they sell out. While a lot of that is "luck," being plugged in to this and other forums allows you to have a leg-up on such things and tweak luck in your favor.

    Chance favors the prepared mind.

    Amen... truer words have yet to be spoken...

    As the old saying goes, "I prefer to make my own luck".

    When I click on Google Chrome to open a browser window, 6 tabs open up automaticly. Brickset is one of them. :)
    Let me guess the other five: ebay, brickpicker, craigslist, shopgw, and...hmmm fbtb? I'm not sure about the last one.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    My e-mail and slickdeals are 2 more, I'll leave the other 3 to your imagination... :)
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited August 2013
    Bandit said:

    I never said it was a lot higher, just that it was higher. My 10212s cost me less than $180 from the S&H 5/4/2012 sale. $208 + $7 tax, minus online rebates ($15 rebate on each one), equals $200. That then goes to under $180 after selling the TC-14 I received with each one for $25-$30 a piece. But let's just say $180 for the sake of argument.

    Sell the 10212 today for $400, minus $48 fees, and $15 shipping. That leaves $337 and a price point of $180, for 87.22% profit.

    Sell the 41999 today for $450, minus $54 fees and $15 shipping. That leaves $381 and a price point of $204, for 86.76% profit.

    So yes, I stand by my statement. :)

    Thanks for the clarification. I guess you can technically be correct, but that's an awful lot of wheeling and dealing to get to that ROI! With 41999, you just needed to buy one and sell it :)

    Just curious, what's the rebate you referenced? Was it a one-time thing or is this something that people can take advantage of on other sets? I never even heard about that.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^Too late to edit, but I just noticed I the final numbers in my example were off by 100 each. I noted 220% ROI for 10212 and 225% ROI for 41999. It should have been 120% and 125%, respectively.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ What everyone is missing is that there is $100+ profit in both sets, very shortly after retirement of both.

    #41999 is faster to that point, so it wins in that regard, but it was far easier to get 50 of #10212, so it will have more total profit when it is done. The last 5-10 of those will be saved for a year or two from now when I fully expect them to fetch $800 a copy.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^Great point. Making $100+ profit for not doing much is a great deal.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    I am nothing but smiles right now, just received my other #41999 and just netted 185 with the one I sold. I know that this set will make more down the road, but there's nothing bad about flipping quick for a nice infusion of investment capital. Today's set is my set I put in a closet and forget about.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Does all this mean someone will give me $400 shipped for #41999 today? ;)

    Interesting question... if it isn't the die hard fans on this forum buying them, who is doing so?
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    edited August 2013
    nkx1 said:

    Thanks for the clarification. I guess you can technically be correct, but that's an awful lot of wheeling and dealing to get to that ROI! With 41999, you just needed to buy one and sell it :)

    Just curious, what's the rebate you referenced? Was it a one-time thing or is this something that people can take advantage of on other sets? I never even heard about that.

    Rebate thing being one of those rebate affiliate cash back places. They give you x% of what you spend at a site back, when you click through to the site from them. There are a bunch of them, and the percentages and stores are always changing. May the 4th last year, one of them was 7.5% back for [email protected], which isn't too shabby.

    @rocao - removed affiliate mention
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^Ah, got it, thanks Bandit. I sort of figured that after another member PM'd me. Yeah, 7.5% is really good.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129

    Does all this mean someone will give me $400 shipped for #41999 today? ;)

    Interesting question... if it isn't the die hard fans on this forum buying them, who is doing so?

    I sold my last 41999 on Friday for $550 shipped (ebay). after fees/expenses, I netted about $275 on the deal - not bad for two weeks. Could I get more by waiting? Sure, I think that is likely. But I can also foresee a scenario where all the people holding these back now are all looking for the same buyers in three months, stagnating the price, or even driving it down slightly. So I figured, bird in hand on this one...

    FollowsClosely
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    How does it go? One in the hand better than two in the bush?
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited August 2013
    ^^Wow, how did you manage $550? Did you ship out of the country or something? I agree with you, $550 is fantastic if you can manage that, especially for a 2-week turn around. At a quick glance, with some exceptions, the recent sold listings on ebay appear to average around $450. I think the number of buyers will thin out quite a bit past $500 or so.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Yes, international on that one
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    So at my Walmart there are a dozen or so Bag Ends #79003 sitting there for $49 each. Should I jump on them or what. There are other hobbit sets sitting there, but I've already resolved that if I went for any set, it'd be Bag End.
  • adol7adol7 Member Posts: 150
    tensor said:

    So at my Walmart there are a dozen or so Bag Ends #79003 sitting there for $49 each. Should I jump on them or what. There are other hobbit sets sitting there, but I've already resolved that if I went for any set, it'd be Bag End.

    I'd probably be in the same boat. I bought one for myself as I think it's the coolest set of the bunch. You'd think 2 more movies would help keep the interest alive after retirement, but I'm not known for good advice. :p
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,233
    edited August 2013
    I like the parts in the Unexpected gathering set and would probably buy more sets but not at 49, I have a couple I got from Amazon at 55.. If I were to buy for parts, Id probably wait until they were around 4 if possible... but you have to then gamble that someone else will not buy them before they get to that point.. I am hoping that the Constitution train chase is going to be discounted either here or Target.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    tensor said:

    So at my Walmart there are a dozen or so Bag Ends #79003 sitting there for $49 each. Should I jump on them or what. There are other hobbit sets sitting there, but I've already resolved that if I went for any set, it'd be Bag End.

    If this set does retire this year then it's the surest bet of The Hobbit sets. At the same time I don't it doubling RRP for a year or two due to the sheer number of resellers now out there.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Unexpected Gathering just came out in November, 2012. I would be very surprised if it retired this year.
    LegoFanTexas
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Unexpected Gathering is one of the best Lego sets to come out since I got back into the hobby.
    LegoFanTexaskhmellymel
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,075
    ^ I find your set commentary on a reselling thread offensive. For shame.
    wagnerml2FollowsCloselyLegoFanTexasTheLoneTensorBlueMoonUSAcloaked7gmpirateThanos75jasor
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^^ Please, lets stay on topic here.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    tensor said:

    So at my Walmart there are a dozen or so Bag Ends #79003 sitting there for $49 each. Should I jump on them or what. There are other hobbit sets sitting there, but I've already resolved that if I went for any set, it'd be Bag End.

    It's a fantastic set, but it's pretty much been permanently on sale at 20% off ($55).
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    how much will set 41999 go for around christmas since I would assume it wil be sold out by black friday. Also since 75% of the product was set aside for the US im wondering how much higher can it go
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    #41999 is sold out already...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited August 2013
    ^Maybe he means after Lego Stores get more Crawlers.

    They are supposed to get another shipment correct?
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    yes they are geting a couple of more shipments....Plus not all lego stores are sold out
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I'm wondering if $500 or so is the ceiling..
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129

    yes they are geting a couple of more shipments....Plus not all lego stores are sold out

    really? that is...shocking

  • jonboy2000jonboy2000 Member Posts: 255
    @canyouhandle23 just wondering where you heard that 75% of the 20,000 are located in the US?
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622

    how much will set 41999 go for around christmas since I would assume it wil be sold out by black friday. Also since 75% of the product was set aside for the US im wondering how much higher can it go

    Isnt technic more popular in europe than US? doesnt exactly make much sense if they did get 75%, who exactly told you that?
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748

    I see Lego is pumping out Millenium Falcons to retailers.. Seen quite a few new boxes on the shelves. They did this with Hogwarts right before it EOL'd.

    MF has a long way until EOL from what I've gathered

    how much will set 41999 go for around christmas since I would assume it wil be sold out by black friday. Also since 75% of the product was set aside for the US im wondering how much higher can it go

    Isnt technic more popular in europe than US? doesnt exactly make much sense if they did get 75%, who exactly told you that?
    Might be right on the proportion. I've been told by various lego sources that Europes allocation was only 4600

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    No surprise, Mindstorms NXT 2.0 is sold out. With 3.0 coming imminently I thought, maybe, they would clearance that. If not previously mentioned, B-Wing UCS is officially done.

    http://search2.lego.com/?q=sold+out&lang=2057&cc=US
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,933
    ^ I wonder how they time the transition from 2 to 3 so well. I was also hoping for clearance deals.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Everything I have read tells me that 3 is going to be a far superior product to 2, I wonder how long 2 will remain in demand?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Picked up Ewok Village and Sydney Opera House last night, both boxes wee heavier than I expected.

    Ewok Village comes in a modular sized box (FB size, 24x20x4"), it is $100 more than FB, but feels very densely packed. Tons of minifigs as well, my son is looking forward to building that.

    Gave SOH to my wife last night (she is Aussie, from Brisbane), she was excited about it, looking forward to building it and putting it in the front hall where Imperial Shuttle now stands. :)

    SOH comes in a thicker box than Tower Bridge, I no longer think it is as badly overpriced as I once did.

    Will be interesting to see how both play out over time, but it may well be 3+ years before either retire, so a tad early to stock up on either. :)
    Pitfall69AdeelZubair
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    When my boss went to the conference they specifically mentioned that US would receive roughly 15,000 sets. Then it explain when he waives would hit the stores. They sold out online but thats because a higher allocation will be given the stores.
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    edited August 2013
    Did anyone else notice that #4204 The City Mine has EOL'd and is sold out on S&H and Amazon. I really like that set and it is actually really fun to play with...I mean display.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Shows available on [email protected]
  • bri4jennbri4jenn United StatesMember Posts: 96
    edited August 2013
    Has anyone used Mindstorms NXT 2.0? What are the major advances in 3.0? Is it worth picking up 2.0 if you are starting from scratch? I am referring to playing/building/desiging with the LEGO and not reselling it.
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,674
    @bri4jenn, I do have 2.0, in 3.0 sensors seems more accurate and there is a better/upgraded CPU (accepts micro SD cards, which is nice as I always run out of space). Also there is an IR remote.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    This FAQ highlights the improvements. I think you would have to be insane to get 2.0 now. 3.0 is massively better in every regard.

    http://mindstorms.lego.com/en-us/News/ReadMore/Default.aspx?id=476781
  • bri4jennbri4jenn United StatesMember Posts: 96
    Thanks @Bandit. It looks like EV3 is the superior product. This should be a good way to have fun with engineering, robotics and programming. My soon will love this.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Thanks for the link to EV3.

    I asked before, what is the future value of 2 when 3 is so much better in every regard (except price of course)?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,933
    Mindstorms should be seen as an electronic product rather than a lego set. As computing improves, so does mindstorms. So surely there is little resale value in mindstorms.

    It's quite different to a regular set.
    vitreolumbinaryeyeFollowsCloselyLootefisk
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,674
    I think the value will be in the last NXT release, like it is in the last RCX (2.0), although RCX 1.0 and 1.5 can be upgraded to 2.0, it is not the case for NXT.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,233
    edited August 2013
    [email protected] still has 4204 listed as available in the US, though I'm guessing it is a matter of time before production stops (if it has not already) and supply starts to dwindle, though it is rare to see sets sell out before the holidays.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I never fully built my NXT 2.0, but now that 3.0 is here I feel like I should just sell the 2.0 especially since the sensors aren't as good.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    "So surely there is little resale value in mindstorms."

    Not necessarily. Timing is everything. Some resellers made a nice profit as soon as the NXT 2.0 was no longer available at retail, but the buyer demand spiked, then leveled off. Admittedly, timing the purchase and resale would not have been easy. Also, I've lucked up on a few old sets/parts for next to nothing at yard sales, and there is demand for those; they have resale value.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    ^ Same here. And I felt the same way with 1.5, and 1.0
    Never enough hours in the day
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