Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

doriansdad

It should pick up when the new minecraft sets hit sept 1st...other than that the rest of the year looks to be quite boring :(

Pitfall69

TMNT is not my area of expertise, but I think Lego was 20 years late on releasing sets based off the franchise.

Thanos75

I agree....I just figured it was something not talked much about to get the ball rolling again. I really miss this chat when its actually about the sets.

Pitfall69

What sets?...Oh, Lego sets. I got it ;)

I'm wondering about #60026 Town Square.

Dougout

Town Square looks like a really good set. It shouldn't be going anywhere till at least 2015.

Thanos75

I really like Town Square. I will need two of them to complete the buildings.

y2josh

Pitfall69 said:

TMNT is not my area of expertise, but I think Lego was 20 years late on releasing sets based off the franchise.

I think the Turtles and Shredder minifigs could potentially do well long term, and maybe the sewer lair as a set, but at this point, it seems safe to say the LEGO sets aren't doing anywhere nearly as well as the Playmates toys.

Thanos75

I only picked up two TMNT sets....just enough to get all four Turtles. Now I'm thinking I need to pick up the Shredder set.I'm not a suoer big TMNT fan but I do have a really sweet piece of comic art that I bought personally from Kevin Eastman.

TheLoneTensor

doriansdad said:

It should pick up when the new minecraft sets hit sept 1st...other than that the rest of the year looks to be quite boring :(

What about the Winter Village Market? That's at least one bright spot amongst the inevitable dismal sales we're going to see on BF and after Xmas. We still have yet to see the effect the now-permanent free shipping has on a big S@H sale.

gmpirate

Town Square strikes me as a Public Transport #8404 type of set. Should do well if you acquire at a decent discount. But alas its a long way away . . .

What about the first wave of Hobbit sets? I know they have been clearanced at Walmart and the like, but I feel like they will still be around until after Christmas. I picked up a few Unexpected Gatherings at 50% off, but have been hesitant to pick up any at 30% for fear of it hanging around longer. Same goes for Wargs.

nkx1

I know a few people have noted this previously, but it would seem reasonable to think that if a set is popular when it's in production, then it will be popular when out of production. Although I could be wrong, I just don't see TMNT Lego being all that popular right now. Same with Lone Ranger. Therefore, I sort of doubt these sets will miraculously become popular in the secondary market once retired.

Of course, just like many people have also noted, even popular sets might not appreciate much due to the number of sets being stashed away (FB, DS).

BoiseState

TRU has stacks of Weathertops @$45.99.

Brickarmor

I plan on grabbing a few TMNT for the long run. It's very cool that it finally received the Lego treatment and, lackluster as it seems to us now, it may well be the only iteration.

Regarding the Hobbit: wouldn't it be something if Tauriel is a huge hit in the second film and Mirkwood is nowhere to be found...? Yet sadly Yazneg is no Azog, not now and probably not ever. But the Wargs themselves are good sellers and could drive the set, depending on how long it's around. As for #79003 as the iconic set I can foresee it sticking around until 2014.

gmpirate

BoiseState said:

TRU has stacks of Weathertops @$45.99.

Interesting. Online they are $55. Still, being that my inventory average is under $40 I can't see budging on it. Unless of course there's an extra coupon to apply . . .

I went ahead and bought into them but the possibility of a 2nd wave containing more black guys on horses scares me.

BoiseState

I passed on them today.. But noticed a Ringwraith w/horse goes for over $15 on EBay. Might go back and pick up 1-2, but likeyou said, another set with them in it would kill Weathertop's value.

y2josh

BoiseState said:

I passed on them today.. But noticed a Ringwraith w/horse goes for over $15 on EBay. Might go back and pick up 1-2, but likeyou said, another set with them in it would kill Weathertop's value.

This is exactly my problem with Weathertop... if it winds up being the only set with Nazgûl, I'll regret not having saved any (as well as regret having stopped at eight Nazgûl for myself). Transversely, it's not a set I'm comfortable risking a very deep stock of for just the reason you guys have listed.

mountebank

It looks like #41999 sellling price in the UK has fallen below £300. The constant replenishment of sets on the market is taking out the "must have one at all costs" buyers and once they're gone, and the buzz subsides, we'll see what price these settle down to. The price stabilising around £250 in the short term?

stevemack

Until Christmas comes :)

CircleK

Pitfall69 said:

TMNT is not my area of expertise, but I think Lego was 20 years late on releasing sets based off the franchise.

This is the way I feel about the Simpsons theme as well.

prevere

^TMNT, Simpsons, SpongeBob, Lone Ranger are all "fringe" licenses IMHO. There's just not enough long-term interest from the kiddies or firepower from the fan base to drive up the price.

littlepuppi

I think Simpsons could be very popular, im ear marking that theme as my next one to go big on, last one I really piled into was Harry Potter (this is by my standards so I'm talking about maybe getting 5 sets of some boxes which is probably small fry overall). Personally i love the Simpsons and think it will do really well, could have the rose tinteds on though!

Pitfall69

I'm going to pass on The Simpsons. I don't think I have ever watched one Simpsons tv show in it's entirety. Simpsons "jumped the shark" years ago.

I would rather have The Muppets minifigures than the Simpsons.

CCC

BoiseState said:

Would you still buy Lego at the same rate you do now if it lost almost all of it's value once opened or retired? I'm not sure I would. I love building and collecting the minifigures, but it feels good to know I can make my money back if I needed to.

If lego lost almost all of its value once opened or retired, then I would probably buy 10x more than I do now. Just not from lego, but from the people that have opened theirs and are now selling it on.

The problem of course is that many other people would want to do the same, not buy new, but second hand. Which pushes prices higher, and we have the secondary market that we already have.

doriansdad

littlepuppi said:

I think Simpsons could be very popular, im ear marking that theme as my next one to go big on, last one I really piled into was Harry Potter (this is by my standards so I'm talking about maybe getting 5 sets of some boxes which is probably small fry overall). Personally i love the Simpsons and think it will do really well, could have the rose tinteds on though!

They overproduce so much Simpsons merchandise it is very hard to see the Lego sets being collectible. Maybe if it is a very short run or one of the sets is a numbered limited edition it will generate some interest but I am not expecting much.

CCC

mountebank said:

It looks like #41999 sellling price in the UK has fallen below £300. The constant replenishment of sets on the market is taking out the "must have one at all costs" buyers and once they're gone, and the buzz subsides, we'll see what price these settle down to. The price stabilising around £250 in the short term?

It also depends on the reviews it gets. I've noticed a few people saying that the speed sucks (including here). If there are enough negative reviews about it online, then popularity will be pushed down for people wanting it as a set / car to use, as opposed to a sealed box collectable. As a mint-in-box collectable it may well be worth £400 (or whatever). But as a fairly poor RC car it is not worth anything like that. So it depends on how many people want it for each purpose.

Legofanscott

doriansdad said:

littlepuppi said:

I think Simpsons could be very popular, im ear marking that theme as my next one to go big on, last one I really piled into was Harry Potter (this is by my standards so I'm talking about maybe getting 5 sets of some boxes which is probably small fry overall). Personally i love the Simpsons and think it will do really well, could have the rose tinteds on though!

They overproduce so much Simpsons merchandise it is very hard to see the Lego sets being collectible. Maybe if it is a very short run or one of the sets is a numbered limited edition it will generate some interest but I am not expecting much.

Can't really see how simpsons merchandise is anymore over produced than star wars merchandise or any other sort of merchandise for that matter.

At one time the UK did seem to have alot of simpsons merchandise but most of it seems to have gone now.

IMO the theme has come far too late

doriansdad

mountebank said:

It looks like #41999 sellling price in the UK has fallen below £300. The constant replenishment of sets on the market is taking out the "must have one at all costs" buyers and once they're gone, and the buzz subsides, we'll see what price these settle down to. The price stabilising around £250 in the short term?

The newbs never follow the Pareto principle and ALWAYS take their chips off the table entirely too early. Come back in 6 months and read your post for a good chuckle.

vitreolum

doriansdad said:

mountebank said:

It looks like #41999 sellling price in the UK has fallen below £300. The constant replenishment of sets on the market is taking out the "must have one at all costs" buyers and once they're gone, and the buzz subsides, we'll see what price these settle down to. The price stabilising around £250 in the short term?

The newbs never follow the Pareto principle and ALWAYS take their chips off the table entirely too early. Come back in 6 months and read your post for a good chuckle.

Prices for #10212 on BL have dropped as well, all those impatient ones expecting to make 2x retail in a few month after EOL are now trying to get rid of them.

tom4086

doriansdad said:

mountebank said:

It looks like #41999 sellling price in the UK has fallen below £300. The constant replenishment of sets on the market is taking out the "must have one at all costs" buyers and once they're gone, and the buzz subsides, we'll see what price these settle down to. The price stabilising around £250 in the short term?

The newbs never follow the Pareto principle and ALWAYS take their chips off the table entirely too early. Come back in 6 months and read your post for a good chuckle.

I'm not sure. If you can double in a week, or quadruple in 6 months, it's all a much of a muchness.

FollowsClosely

I sold some of my #41999 for $450. I have no regrets. Come Christmas I will sell my others. This craze has caused me to get #9398 back out, we are building it now.

madforLEGO

BoiseState said:

Would you still buy Lego at the same rate you do now if it lost almost all of it's value once opened or retired? I'm not sure I would. I love building and collecting the minifigures, but it feels good to know I can make my money back if I needed to.

Well that would also state that LEGO would put the same pieces and colors in every set over and over again..
If if sets 'lost' their value in retirement there would likely be pieces that people would want for MOCs

Pitfall69 said:

I'm going to pass on The Simpsons. I don't think I have ever watched one Simpsons tv show in it's entirety. Simpsons "jumped the shark" years ago.

I would rather have The Muppets minifigures than the Simpsons.

Id rather have Futurama than Simpsons to be honest.

I think a good set to get is the #4207 City Garage.
It is a TRU exclusive and I doubt you are going to see it on sale much (at least at an actual discount).
Creative coupon and rewards points tend to get it down to 100 but I doubt you are going tto see these on BOGOs for a good deal
It may last forever though as TRU appears very resistant to putting stuff on sale to clear it out unless it is years after EOL

nkx1

FollowsClosely said:

I sold some of my #41999 for $450. I have no regrets. ...

Same here. About $160 profit after all fees, shipping and tax paid. I figured $450 was a good compromise between a good ROI and mitigating risk (the risk that the set value could attenuate or level off at $450-$500 once all the hype dies down).

I also think that because this set was so successful, Lego could very well release another tricked-out RC model in the not-so-distant future, which could de-value 41999. I guess we'll see.

TheLoneTensor

nkx1 said:

FollowsClosely said:

I sold some of my #41999 for $450. I have no regrets. ...

Same here. About $160 profit after all fees, shipping and tax paid. I figured $450 was a good compromise between a good ROI and mitigating risk (the risk that the set value could attenuate or level off at $450-$500 once all the hype dies down).

I also think that because this set was so successful, Lego could very well release another tricked-out RC model in the not-so-distant future, which could de-value 41999. I guess we'll see.

But, another tricked out RC model would indicate the start of a series, and we all know what usually happens to the value of the first in any series.

prevere

vitreolum said:

doriansdad said:

mountebank said:

It looks like #41999 sellling price in the UK has fallen below £300. The constant replenishment of sets on the market is taking out the "must have one at all costs" buyers and once they're gone, and the buzz subsides, we'll see what price these settle down to. The price stabilising around £250 in the short term?

The newbs never follow the Pareto principle and ALWAYS take their chips off the table entirely too early. Come back in 6 months and read your post for a good chuckle.

Prices for #10212 on BL have dropped as well, all those impatient ones expecting to make 2x retail in a few month after EOL are now trying to get rid of them.

For those new to considering Lego as an investment product, what makes me laugh is the contradiction of recent results.
41999 - Great Technic exclusive set that out of the gate nets a $100-$200 return.
10212 - Impeccable UCS SW Model that is a classic and a great long-term set to own and sell. Netting very little profit at the moment.

The results for 10212 may be better in the long run (a few years I'm talking about). But sets like 41999 are setting a very bad example and expectation for instant profit.

Bandit

prevere said:

10212 - Impeccable UCS SW Model that is a classic and a great long-term set to own and sell. Netting very little profit at the moment.

Really? What do you consider 'very little profit'? 10212 is netting me a higher profit % right now than 41999 would be if I were to sell one for $450.

TheLoneTensor

^In all fairness, doesn't that depend on what price you picked it up at? If you were lucky to nab 10212s at $184ish then yeah, profits galore. Of course, it is a large and heavy beast to ship. If you instead paid $260 and had to buy a shipping box for it, profits dwindle fast.

prevere

Bandit said:

prevere said:

10212 - Impeccable UCS SW Model that is a classic and a great long-term set to own and sell. Netting very little profit at the moment.

Really? What do you consider 'very little profit'? 10212 is netting me a higher profit % right now than 41999 would be if I were to sell one for $450.

That's great you were able to buy low and sell high so quickly.

Dad

tensor said:

^In all fairness, doesn't that depend on what price you picked it up at? If you were lucky to nab 10212s at $184ish then yeah, profits galore. Of course, it is a large and heavy beast to ship. If you instead paid $260 and had to buy a shipping box for it, profits dwindle fast.

But isn't that what the smart guys do, buy at the right price? I've done totally fine on the few 10212's I had. I had 9, I have now got 4 which owe me £100 between them. Not suggesting I am a smart guy btw but I always maintain that profit is made by the price you buy, not the price you sell.

nkx1

^^^I think for some small-time sellers, shipping/boxes can eat into profits quite a bit. However, if you sell enough (even a small amount), these costs can be minimized by buying boxes in bulk and having an account with FedEx or UPS. A large enough box to fit #10212 should cost about $2 or less in bulk, and FedEx should cost a maximum of $20-$25 anywhere in the lower 48 states. $25 or so for a box and shipping is probably about half of what a UPS or FedEx store would charge you if you were to walk in with a #10212 Lego box and ask them to package and ship it.

Nonetheless, I definitely agree, it's obviously important to consider shipping/packaging costs. Also, something that a lot of people seem to glance over when talking about profits is sales tax paid at the time of purchase. For instance, a $200 set will cost you $16 or more in taxes in California. After everything is said and done, small-time sellers generally need a fairly wide margin to make reselling worthwhile (at least I do).

With respect to Bandit claiming a higher % profit on #10212 versus #41999, I simply don't know how that is reasonably possible (at least in the U.S.), assuming s/he bought them at retail.

#10212 is selling for $375 and up on ebay currently. Let's say you bought one for $182, the cheapest historical price I am aware of on Amazon. We'll ignore sales tax, shipping and ebay fees for this example, since the total costs will probably roughly even out on each set. I'll even be extra generous and say you are able to sell one for $400 (even though no one would likely buy one for that much currently). So, $400/$184 = 220% ROI before costs.

#41999 is selling for about $450 and up currently on ebay. So, $450/$200 = 225% ROI before costs.

So unless someone bought #10212 for less than $182, it's unlikely anyone is clearing a higher percentage ROI than #41999 (in the U.S.).

doriansdad

tom4086 said:

I'm not sure. If you can double in a week, or quadruple in 6 months, it's all a much of a muchness.

This is where folks can go broke taking a profit. They think they made 100% in a few weeks and all is good. Meanwhile they leave an incredible amount of upside on the table. Now if TLG produced limited numbered sets every few months then I could see the argument to sell now and reinvest those profits. As far as I can tell TLG has made no announcements for another limited set in the future. Selling 41999 now and holding onto 10212 is an awful play. Selling 10212 now and holding 41999 is much better....41999 has more upside potential than any other set retiring this year IMO.

TheLoneTensor

Dad said:

tensor said:

^In all fairness, doesn't that depend on what price you picked it up at? If you were lucky to nab 10212s at $184ish then yeah, profits galore. Of course, it is a large and heavy beast to ship. If you instead paid $260 and had to buy a shipping box for it, profits dwindle fast.

But isn't that what the smart guys do, buy at the right price? I've done totally fine on the few 10212's I had. I had 9, I have now got 4 which owe me £100 between them. Not suggesting I am a smart guy btw but I always maintain that profit is made by the price you buy, not the price you sell.

I think I understand the spirit of what you're trying to say, but profit is made by the price you buy and the price you sell, not either or.

As for the right price, there is no right price, only what you can get it for. That involves you being a) aware of the smokin' deal, b) prepared to act on it and c) not being too late to the party before they sell out. While a lot of that is "luck," being plugged in to this and other forums allows you to have a leg-up on such things and tweak luck in your favor.

Chance favors the prepared mind.

prevere

doriansdad said:

tom4086 said:

I'm not sure. If you can double in a week, or quadruple in 6 months, it's all a much of a muchness.

This is where folks can go broke taking a profit. They think they made 100% in a few weeks and all is good. Meanwhile they leave an incredible amount of upside on the table. Now if TLG produced limited numbered sets every few months then I could see the argument to sell now and reinvest those profits. As far as I can tell TLG has made no announcements for another limited set in the future. Selling 41999 now and holding onto 10212 is an awful play. Selling 10212 now and holding 41999 is much better....41999 has more upside potential than any other set retiring this year IMO.

This is what's so great...I think the exact opposite way (although I don't have any 41999s, so no skin in that game). There could be a 100 of us on here, and each taking a different position on each product we choose to engage with. Love it! Reminds me of my other love, fantasy football.

Pitfall69

I don't understand why you can't use the boxes that your sets came in?

nkx1

@Pitfall69: I'm assuming you mean shipping boxes and not the actual Lego boxes... Many reasons; for me, the boxes that Amazon and others use are often too big. This results in a higher shipping cost for me If I were to re-use the boxes. Also, I usually order a few sets at a time, but only sell one at a time. So the boxes are not only too big, but I wouldn't have enough of them. And finally, if you buy stuff in-store to resell, you wouldn't have a shipping box.

CupIsHalfEmpty

Pitfall69 said:

I don't understand why you can't use the boxes that your sets came in?

When you buy it in store, or when the shipping box is destroyed in transit. But yes in general, I reuse shipping boxes.

Edit: Wait, are you implying to just slap a shipping label on the set? because that's genius, think of all the cardboard that could be saved!

Renny

^Agree with @nkx1. Some of the boxes I get are massive in relation to the content making shipping charges way more than they should be. I still save them though in case they fit other sets better. Majority of my boxes I buy in bulk though from uline.

Pitfall69

Ok, people. Don't let the profile pic throw you off. Of course I'm just talking about the shipping boxes. I would never just slap an address on a Lego box. I'm not PitFall-Mart.

I don't buy a lot in store so most of my Lego come in shipping boxes.

Renny

I forgot to mention I do also save every packing peanut, airbag and paper stuffing I receive from my purchases. Packing materials are expensive so I try to save whenever I can.

LegoFanTexas

tensor said:

As for the right price, there is no right price, only what you can get it for. That involves you being a) aware of the smokin' deal, b) prepared to act on it and c) not being too late to the party before they sell out. While a lot of that is "luck," being plugged in to this and other forums allows you to have a leg-up on such things and tweak luck in your favor.

Chance favors the prepared mind.

Amen... truer words have yet to be spoken...

As the old saying goes, "I prefer to make my own luck".

When I click on Google Chrome to open a browser window, 6 tabs open up automaticly. Brickset is one of them. :)

Bandit

nkx1 said:

With respect to Bandit claiming a higher % profit on #10212 versus #41999, I simply don't know how that is reasonably possible (at least in the U.S.), assuming s/he bought them at retail.

#10212 is selling for $375 and up on ebay currently. Let's say you bought one for $182, the cheapest historical price I am aware of on Amazon. We'll ignore sales tax, shipping and ebay fees for this example, since the total costs will probably roughly even out on each set. I'll even be extra generous and say you are able to sell one for $400 (even though no one would likely buy one for that much currently). So, $400/$184 = 220% ROI before costs.

#41999 is selling for about $450 and up currently on ebay. So, $450/$200 = 225% ROI before costs.

So unless someone bought #10212 for less than $182, it's unlikely anyone is clearing a higher percentage ROI than #41999 (in the U.S.).

I never said it was a lot higher, just that it was higher. My 10212s cost me less than $180 from the S&H 5/4/2012 sale. $208 + $7 tax, minus online rebates ($15 rebate on each one), equals $200. That then goes to under $180 after selling the TC-14 I received with each one for $25-$30 a piece. But let's just say $180 for the sake of argument.

Sell the 10212 today for $400, minus $48 fees, and $15 shipping. That leaves $337 and a price point of $180, for 87.22% profit.

Sell the 41999 today for $450, minus $54 fees and $15 shipping. That leaves $381 and a price point of $204, for 86.76% profit.

So yes, I stand by my statement. :)