Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Pitfall69

^If it does come back, I fully expect it to be gone in minutes. There have been at least 3 Winter Village sets to buy during the holidays, but usually, the one that is the oldest one is gone in a flash.

vitreolum

^^ Getting it at that price would be a bad move, just mentioned it as I find it marked above usual European retail as well.

CircleK

I already paid the piper on the Winter Village Post Office. I jumped on one listed a little over RRP as soon as I discovered that S@H had it listed as retired. I just wanted one for my own collection. I have zilch for resale.

TheLoneTensor

Heck, I still think the cottage may be gone. I realize it's displayed on the back of the Winter Market set, but I have a hunch.

Hardrada

vitreolum said:

^^ Getting it at that price would be a bad move, just mentioned it as I find it marked above usual European retail as well.

I think it wouldn't be a good buy for resale even at say 20% off European RRP either.

doriansdad

Yep Grogall on another forum already confirmed Post Office will be back this fall...don't know where he gets his info from but he is always correct.....Bakery is retired obviously....here it is:

"The Winter Village Post Office and the Winter Village Cottage will both be rereleased on October 1st. with Winter Village Market, The Winter Toy Shop and The Winter Village Bakery have both been retired!"

vitreolum

Hmmm, is Bakery worth it at $76?

dougts

^ for yourself, yes. for resale....I wouldn't.

CircleK

doriansdad said:

Yep Grogall on another forum already confirmed Post Office will be back this fall...don't know where he gets his info from but he is always correct.....Bakery is retired obviously....here it is:

"The Winter Village Post Office and the Winter Village Cottage will both be rereleased on October 1st. with Winter Village Market, The Winter Toy Shop and The Winter Village Bakery have both been retired!"

Damn. If Grogall said it then its good as gold. I wish I would have seen this before paying > RRP for the Post Office. I don't see why S@H would list it as retired though if its not. I've never seen this done with other seasonal items.

mathew

CircleK said:

mathew said:

FB is definitely going this year. My local Lego store opened earlier this spring and they had a few copies for the first few weeks but then sold out. I have not seen them re-stock it. I do believe that there is a chance that the new French Cafe could be a corner (which it should be). If that is the case then I expect GE to be retired shortly before or after.

I doubt the PR will be a corner building. I just can't see TLG releasing two corner modulars in a row.

I agree with the out going sets though. I fully expect FB and GE to be retired by March.

Why not have two corners available at the same time? Two are currently available right now. It makes from a business stand point in that people will want to complete a street.

dougts

^ I don't think anyone is questioning having 2 corners for sale at the same time, they are questioning the sense behind releasing two corner modulars in a row. It is hard to see that happening.

doriansdad

vitreolum said:

To pick up 10 SSD or to pick up 5 SSD....hmmmm....

If they go for 50% off this BF I may buy multiples....otherwise it is a guaranteed loser.

CircleK

mathew said:

CircleK said:

mathew said:

FB is definitely going this year. My local Lego store opened earlier this spring and they had a few copies for the first few weeks but then sold out. I have not seen them re-stock it. I do believe that there is a chance that the new French Cafe could be a corner (which it should be). If that is the case then I expect GE to be retired shortly before or after.

I doubt the PR will be a corner building. I just can't see TLG releasing two corner modulars in a row.

I agree with the out going sets though. I fully expect FB and GE to be retired by March.

Why not have two corners available at the same time? Two are currently available right now. It makes from a business stand point in that people will want to complete a street.

There's nothing wrong with having multiple corners available. I just think they will follow the normal pattern of 1 corner release - 2 non corner releases (if you dismiss MS). This is just a hunch on my part though. Who knows... Maybe they will do something crazy and release an inverted corner to mix it up.

FollowsClosely

vitreolum said:

To pick up 10 SSD or to pick up 5 SSD....hmmmm....

Btw, retail for SSD in Romania is ~$600. Talk about marking above retail.

In the us I picked up my stash at $260. I bet many others did as well. It will climb slowly.

HarryPotterLover

Well last year it was Bakery, Post, and Cottage. (3) so it makes sense that it would stay and be Post, Cottage, MArket (30

vitreolum

I'll try getting some at $300-350, that's a decent deal for Europe. I still have to pick one for myself as well before it's gone.

prevere

After the PR, I think Lego will need to do something innovative and new with the Modular line. I don't know how the sales of each model are doing, but I would guess it is lessening. I'm giving a very vague statement here, but I think that line is starting to get tired.

doriansdad

prevere said:

After the PR, I think Lego will need to do something innovative and new with the Modular line. I don't know how the sales of each model are doing, but I would guess it is lessening. I'm giving a very vague statement here, but I think that line is starting to get tired.

Make them limited edition with unique printed building numbers? :)

margot

What's with all of The Zombies sets from Japan?

prevere

doriansdad said:

prevere said:

After the PR, I think Lego will need to do something innovative and new with the Modular line. I don't know how the sales of each model are doing, but I would guess it is lessening. I'm giving a very vague statement here, but I think that line is starting to get tired.

Make them limited edition with unique printed building numbers? :)

Haha. Dark blue and limted to 20,000. But half-seriously, a limited edition modular like 41999, would be very, very interesting. And in the spirit of 41999, it could be say a color switch of a MS, CC, or GG?

CircleK

^^ I would be all over a CC color swap rerelease. The GG in any other color would be a crime though.

graphite

^ As long as they don't do the same color swap of CC that I did I'd be fine with it.

Hardrada

margot said:

What's with all of The Zombies sets from Japan?

Probably a slower market, so resellers could react and still buy them in retail when the set was gone elsewhere and quickly climbing in price.

Hardrada

doriansdad said:

Yep Grogall on another forum already confirmed Post Office will be back this fall...don't know where he gets his info from but he is always correct.....Bakery is retired obviously....here it is:

"The Winter Village Post Office and the Winter Village Cottage will both be rereleased on October 1st. with Winter Village Market, The Winter Toy Shop and The Winter Village Bakery have both been retired!"

It's a bit saddening to see that an independent individual with unknown connections to Lego knows more about retirement than their own system.

Has anyone seen a set come back before that was labelled 'Retired' on S@H? Not 'Sold Out' but specifically 'Retired'.

madforLEGO

vitreolum said:

Hmmm, is Bakery worth it at $76?

I dunno I thought the Bakeries were hitting 150 at a point last Winter..
I would say that many sets are at a low point for the year right now and can be had for much less than what they will probably go for this winter.

Hardrada

vitreolum said:

Hmmm, is Bakery worth it at $76?

I'd go for it probably. But it depends on what kind of profits you are after. (If it's for resale.) I think you'd be able to flip it for a good 25-35% net profit by about November. Which is nowhere near doubling your money but you don't have to sit on it for 1-2 years either, just 3 months or so.

vitreolum

I'm quite tempted really, it's not a great deal but still decent and I surely won't get a better one for these, shipping included. If I can sell a couple fast (before Christmas) to cover keeping one for me and one to put away for selling later on it's perfect. I'll probably bite.

jcb193

I just got an email from Lego saying that they were taking pre-orders on Ewok Village, and yet I just saw it at the TRU Store in Times square yesterday.

graphite

^ TRU routinely gets stuff in ahead of the sell dates and puts stuff out early. Nothing new there.

xeeeej

^^^Is this something readily available to all, or are you just teasing us with it?

TheLoneTensor

vitreolum said:

Hmmm, is Bakery worth it at $76?

The proper question is, "Hmmm, should I buy it at $76 now, or $106 at xmas or $146 next year."

LegoFanTexas

xeeeej said:

^^^Is this something readily available to all, or are you just teasing us with it?

No kidding.

I would take 50 of them at that price.

pillpod

Where is bakery available for $76?

Hardrada

Probably in Romania.:)

Pitfall69

Posted in US S@H #41999 as well.

Interesting info I got from 2 of the people I talked to. They said that Lego Brand stores WILL be getting more 41999's (that, we knew already) What I didn't know is that S@H's inventory is different than Lego Brand Stores and that S@H can't pull sets from there (yes, you guys probably knew this).

The finance person I talked to said something very interesting. He said that it is being discussed right now about getting more 41999's back at S@H. It could mean 2 things; TLG will make more Crawlers or pull inventory that was destined to go to Lego Brand stores.

Pitfall69

LegoFanTexas said:

xeeeej said:

^^^Is this something readily available to all, or are you just teasing us with it?

No kidding.

I would take 50 of them at that price.

I would take 50 as well...if I had the money ;)

Like I said, IF the Post Office comes back (looks like it will) it will be gone in the blink of an eye. At least we won't have to worry about @LegoFanTexas buying 50 of them ;)

BoiseState

I'll be watching closely..

juggles7

Dorian's Dad, the quote you posted about the upcoming availability of Winter Village Post Office was from April, 2013. In August, several months later, that set was declared "retired" on Lego's website. No offense, but old information is misinformation.

vitreolum

Hardrada said:

Probably in Romania.:)

Yep, they have a few at a store here. Well... they HAD actually. :)

doriansdad

juggles7 said:

Dorian's Dad, the quote you posted about the upcoming availability of Winter Village Post Office was from April, 2013. In August, several months later, that set was declared "retired" on Lego's website. No offense, but old information is misinformation.

If Grogall says it will be back Oct 1st I would not bet against it. Good luck.

CircleK

^^ this will be interesting. I know better than to bet against Grogall, but S@H has had the set listed as retired since July.

indigobox

@juggles7 they retire them every year after the Christmas / Winter season. I believe they put the Winter Village Cottage down as retired last season.

Hardrada

They didn't as far as I remember. It was just at 'Sold Out'.

BoiseState

Would you still buy Lego at the same rate you do now if it lost almost all of it's value once opened or retired? I'm not sure I would. I love building and collecting the minifigures, but it feels good to know I can make my money back if I needed to.

Basta

BoiseState said:

Would you still buy Lego at the same rate you do now if it lost almost all of it's value once opened or retired? I'm not sure I would. I love building and collecting the minifigures, but it feels good to know I can make my money back if I needed to.

I tend to agree, which is why I think it is in TLG's interest to keep the after market healthy. Where I would see the biggest hit is the larger (expensive) sets, as I'm sure lots of people spend more then they would normally because Lego holds its value so well.

If Lego lost 3/4 of its value as soon as you open and built it and then kept loosing value over the medium term, like most toys do, would you be as keen to buy $200-$400 sets a few times a year?

BoiseState

Lego needs a strong aftermarket.

Gavin83

doriansdad said:

If Grogall says it will be back Oct 1st I would not bet against it. Good luck.

I don't wish to dispute him by any means but I'm really not convinced it will be back. I guess we'll find out for sure shortly.

BoiseState said:

Would you still buy Lego at the same rate you do now if it lost almost all of it's value once opened or retired? I'm not sure I would. I love building and collecting the minifigures, but it feels good to know I can make my money back if I needed to.

I spend a lot of money on Lego (although nothing compared to some here) but there is no way I'd spend what I do if I couldn't sell it later and make my money back. Lego is awesome and I love having it as a hobby but I really couldn't justify spending the money I do on some sets without knowing in the back of my mind it'll still be worth that when I'm done.

Lego do nicely from resellers and the aftermarket in general, there is no way Lego would be as profitable as a business if the secondary value of Lego wasn't as high as it is. There would always be families buying for their children but the AFOL market would shrink rapidly without the value. It's why I'm surprised they're hitting resellers at the moment, it would literally require a thousand extra families to start buying Lego just to cover what some resellers are spending.

prevere

Hitting resellers now may actually drive aftermarket prices higher.

FenrisAkashi

Kind of funny and sad this thread seems to just shut down with the hullabaloo...Granted its more a stream of consciousness chat log at this point but I enjoyed the discussions;D

Thanos75

Well lets get it restarted......With no info that LEGO is planning on expanding on the TMNT line do you see any sets that anyone thinks will be a winner?