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Comments
As for bringing up the DS and FB (holy crap an honest discussion about them again? Sakes alive!), I agree they will do ok, but again, I'm talking % increase of value. The FB has way too many copies available, while the DS has that and is also way expensive. The FB is in my top 10. The DS is not.
And yeah, I agree with the Haunted House and Arkham, but those boxes are so damn big, so they are certainly in my top 10. The Unimog I don't see doing well, mostly because it's a bit weird and certainly obscure as far as mainstream vehicles go. It's just not a bulldozer, or excavator or mobile crane.
I don't include the crawler because I was hoping it wouldn't infect every thread on these forums.
I agree with you. I believe the Tower Bridge will be disco or soon after the Sydney Opera House is released on 09/01/2013.
It will be interesting to see how TB goes in the aftermarket as the number held back by resellers will be a lot more than previous sets and being that it’s over that $300 threshold supply may well out strip demand, at least initially.
I'll be getting one of them soon and want to know which would be best to snag first.
vitreolum, I respectfully completely disagree with your last sentence. How can that be possible, look at all the latest themes, both licensed and not, all come in waves that renew in 6 months or a year periods. LR can only be a one wave thing and when it's gone it's gone. Many targets and walmarts B&M have already clearenced them. The only place they could stall is [email protected] or TRU(...) but certainly no more than a year.
Although I think the cavalry builders will be good later on after EOL.. if you buy like 100 of them.
I blame TLG for making so few #41999 's that even though I own it, I can't afford to build it.
He probably won't lose much in the end, but he might be sitting on that stock quite some time. I guess we will see
He does have more than 100 items for sale on ebay right now but is not listed as a business. So you can be sure that if he's not declaring himself as a business on ebay then he's probably not declaring it as a business with the tax man either... naughty boy!
I'm sure we all know the rule by now, it's all about intent. You clearly do not buy 54+ of these and intend not to sell them so he should really be registered as a business.
While it will go up now the question is this: How far is it really going to go if resellers are the majority of the market for these?
While I think they are going to go for more than the retail was I am guessing optimistically it will stabilize around 500, maybe even fall to 400-450 or lower eventually worst case.
Because the question is this: Are people buying because they are great models, or are people buying because it was limited? So in 1 year from now are people really going to still go after these, are they even going to be thought of? I mean a Limited MF is one thing, that is Star Wars, but limited Technic? While they have their market it is not nearly the size of the SW marketplace.
So I'm guessing there are guys that tie up their money in these, as long as they can sell them all after Christmas and not have to hold them to make money in a year, otherwise that is a lot of dough to have tied up in a bunch of plastic and cardboard sitting in a storage area or home.
Having now seen and felt the box it certainly feels like a special set, only critiscism i have is its a shame it wasnt a traditional lego set.
Or maybe I misunderstood your post, and you are calling them him/her a moron for advertising they have way more than the original purchase limit?
Why? Because you can either pay 199.99 for a Crawler set that is being produced now, or pay 400+ for essentially the same set with a few extras and it is limited, but lets say for example a parent is not going to care. They will simply say get the 9398 and since a kid is not likely to see the #41999 set on a shelf now I doubt you will hear a fuss.
Also since there were gone so fast how many casual fans of Technic are going to say Ohhh I HAVE to have THAT set, and not just buy a 9398 which is a lot more easily accessible and cheaper?
Will there be those that want these? Absolutely.. but how many people really in relation to the 20K (That are not trying to buy them speculating they are going up to 600+) want these and will be willing to pay dearly for something where an alternate version is available?
I see demand in these but I'm not sure I see the justification of the level of demand everyone else is seeing.
Is this 400+ dollar price tag due to people wanting these, or resellers driving up the prices because they are speculating they are going higher? I just see a chance at a bubble here.
Just asking. :)
put up 2 of them, then sell those, then put up 2 more...
there is a reason to do it that way. :)
Perception is everything...
But of course with FVF and paypal fees they will take approx 15% when he starts reselling so they will likely damage their own bottom line if they do make them register.......
The funniest side effect is that if a seller states that his goods are fakes then his auctions are deleted as it's against rules to sell fakes. But if he claims them to be original then it's okay by the site as they 'have no ways to prove it'. (Even if it's completely obvious.)