Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

madforLEGO

tensor said:

Of the currently available sets, what are your top 5 most likely to succeed?

Mine are:

#40079 VW Camper Van
#10226 Sopwith Camel
#10233 Horizon Express
(all of the above are sleepers and are rarely discounted)
#7965 Millennium Falcon
(great set for what it is, could be hurt by re-releases, but it's still iconic)
#79111 Constitution Train Chase
(I have a feeling people will kill for this thing after it's gone)

By 'succeed', do you mean overall increases forever?
If so, You forgot FB and DS.
Joking aside, these will rise regardless of how long they have been out (unless they never EOL them which is doubtful)

Assuming these go EOL this year I would say mine are:
Death Star
Fire Brigade
unimog
Haunted house
Arkham Asylum
honorable mention: Grand Emporium
41999 Technic Exclusive crawler

I'm sure I'm forgetting others as well.

doriansdad

I would say VW Van if it EOLs this year. There are some nice ones on the above list but they will be around in 2014 or longer. Fire Brigade...well we all saw what happened with 10193....waste of time.

TheLoneTensor

madforLEGO said:

I think both trains will stay until replacements are out for both, at least that is how it has been done for the last decade and i do not see that changing.

Just fyi, my list wasn't necessarily those that I think are retiring soon, just those that will have the best bang for the buck of existing sets. Btw, don't discount the cars on the Constitution, as they are pretty good (especially the gun car) and are unique as far as official Lego train cars go.

As for bringing up the DS and FB (holy crap an honest discussion about them again? Sakes alive!), I agree they will do ok, but again, I'm talking % increase of value. The FB has way too many copies available, while the DS has that and is also way expensive. The FB is in my top 10. The DS is not.

And yeah, I agree with the Haunted House and Arkham, but those boxes are so damn big, so they are certainly in my top 10. The Unimog I don't see doing well, mostly because it's a bit weird and certainly obscure as far as mainstream vehicles go. It's just not a bulldozer, or excavator or mobile crane.

I don't include the crawler because I was hoping it wouldn't infect every thread on these forums.

Diggydoes

I wonder why the Tower Bridge get mentioned rarely? It has a great price per piece ratio,it makes a pretty cool looking model and it's a well known landmark and it surely will EOL soon! I also think that a lot of those that have been bought wer bought to part them out and not to keep them MISB! Why shouldn't this do numbers similar to the Taj Mahal? To me this seems like a sleeper!

Dougout

It seems like a great set, I think it will do well. I was going to mention it to EOL but I thought the consensus was it wouldn't till next year.

JamesJT

TB has already been on sale for a year longer than TM and shows no signs of retiring. There were fewer resellers buying TM back in 2009. TB is always available with big discounts (£140ish from amazon italy). TB is no TM. I've got a few TB put away so I'd prefer it if you guys just bought SW stuff from now on. Cheers

doriansdad

A few folks have pretty good evidence Tower Bridge will be around thru the end of 2014 and sell right alongside the Opera House. The second issue is once you hit a certain price point the pool of buyers shrinks very quickly. In my experience once you get much above $300 the action really drops off unless it is a super hot exclusive. Lastly the Taj is gorgeous, this bridge is bland and a pain to display. I have a few but will not hold more than a few.

greenwithenvy

Diggydoes said:

I wonder why the Tower Bridge get mentioned rarely? It has a great price per piece ratio,it makes a pretty cool looking model and it's a well known landmark and it surely will EOL soon! I also think that a lot of those that have been bought wer bought to part them out and not to keep them MISB! Why shouldn't this do numbers similar to the Taj Mahal? To me this seems like a sleeper!

I agree with you. I believe the Tower Bridge will be disco or soon after the Sydney Opera House is released on 09/01/2013.

Basta

doriansdad said:

.....Lastly the Taj is gorgeous, this bridge is bland and a pain to display. I have a few but will not hold more than a few.

Agree about the Taj, but to say that the TB is hard to display isn’t true IMO. Compared to TM & ET it is the easiest as it is half the width and fits nicely on most of my shelves. No chance getting TM or ET on any of them, ET had to go on a side table and shelves out number side tables in my house by quite a lot :)

It will be interesting to see how TB goes in the aftermarket as the number held back by resellers will be a lot more than previous sets and being that it’s over that $300 threshold supply may well out strip demand, at least initially.

TheCultLeader

I have several #10222 sets and I'm debating if I should unload most of them this holiday or hold onto them for another year. What do you guys think, will it see a significant jump in value if I wait?

pillpod

Which will most likely retire first: winter village cottage #10229 or mini modulars #10230?

I'll be getting one of them soon and want to know which would be best to snag first.

Yellowcastle

Can we expect Lone Ranger to follow a similar path as PoP in that we have time and discounts forthcoming? Or could some LR sets just up and disappear without notice? I've been holding off on the bigger sets but don't want to miss the window. With 2 modulars, Arkham, HH, LR, Orthanc and Jabba's Palace in my queue, I'm in a bit of a lurch. :o)

vitreolum

I doubt LR will just disappear, they will try to sell as many as possible. Pulling them suddenly will hurt them more than keeping them on the market for two years and selling a few every now and then.

gmpirate

^^ I get the feeling these sets will be underproduced given the movie's lack of expected success. I don't think I've ever seen every set in any Walmart or Target and the pickings have been slim as well. IMO, it's the latest IJ only better. They are great sets on their own. Normally I would say discounts would be coming, but since I think they are curtailing production, they may not need to discount them given the short supply.

dougts

pillpod said:

Which will most likely retire first: winter village cottage #10229 or mini modulars #10230?

I'll be getting one of them soon and want to know which would be best to snag first.

I would get a 10229 by the end of the year to be safe. look what happened with 10222. That said, 10230 seem like a candidate to be discontinued soon, and it's certainly been out longer. however I suspect TLG has like a gazillion of these in stock. Likely candidate for Brick Friday disounting (again)

MathBuilder

pirate, IJ=Indiana Jones I presume?

vitreolum, I respectfully completely disagree with your last sentence. How can that be possible, look at all the latest themes, both licensed and not, all come in waves that renew in 6 months or a year periods. LR can only be a one wave thing and when it's gone it's gone. Many targets and walmarts B&M have already clearenced them. The only place they could stall is [email protected] or TRU(...) but certainly no more than a year.

BoiseState

I see Lego is pumping out Millenium Falcons to retailers.. Seen quite a few new boxes on the shelves. They did this with Hogwarts right before it EOL'd.

Bumblepants

^often the biggest sets get a lot more shelf space leading up to Christmas since that is when parents are more likely to drop $100+ on a set

CCC

Yellowcastle said:

Can we expect Lone Ranger to follow a similar path as PoP in that we have time and discounts forthcoming? Or could some LR sets just up and disappear without notice? I've been holding off on the bigger sets but don't want to miss the window. With 2 modulars, Arkham, HH, LR, Orthanc and Jabba's Palace in my queue, I'm in a bit of a lurch. :o)

It might be a good idea for lego to pull one of the sets early anyway. Same with any theme, galaxy squad, etc. It happened in the MF range. If it happens in every range, then people will learn that they have to buy early if they want to get the complete range or resort tot he secondary market.

doriansdad

Yellowcastle said:

Can we expect Lone Ranger to follow a similar path as PoP in that we have time and discounts forthcoming? Or could some LR sets just up and disappear without notice? I've been holding off on the bigger sets but don't want to miss the window. With 2 modulars, Arkham, HH, LR, Orthanc and Jabba's Palace in my queue, I'm in a bit of a lurch. :o)

With LR I am sure they are contracted to be selling these for a certain amount of time. As far as discounts they have already been clearanced off at 50% by the disney stores and I imagine [email protected] will clearance them when the time comes. Toy Story all over again.

prevere

LR could go either way (TS or IJ).

joel4motion

Can anyone see the #41999 NOT continuing to rise in value? I have managed to acquire one but the value already massively deters me from opening and building it...there are just better/more important things to be done with the money i think.

madforLEGO

I think TLR will go the way of PoTC... all the sets are nice, but too expensive, so I see clearance and sales of these more often with stores trying to rid themselves of some of the sets, like the town and mine, but not all. I think the train may go out without being discounted, which would stink because I want a few of them
Although I think the cavalry builders will be good later on after EOL.. if you buy like 100 of them.

wagnerml2

I think TLR may be underproduced. The Wal-Marts in my area (St. Louis) still don't have them on the shelves.

Balloonist

joel4motion said:

Can anyone see the #41999 NOT continuing to rise in value? I have managed to acquire one but the value already massively deters me from opening and building it...there are just better/more important things to be done with the money i think.

The ones on ebay uk are all perhaps being purchased by a single buyer.

CupIsHalfEmpty

CupIsHalfEmpty said:

#41999 also has LED headlights and a Winch for the same MSRP as #9398.

I want to build one of the models, and I currently have a sealed 9398 that I picked up from Amazon UK. But I'm thinking of selling it and buying #41999 to open and build. I can't decide which model will be better to buy/build/display/sell. Should I fork out the extra cash to buy #41999 and sell #9398?

So I forked out and bought #41999 which cost me exactly $75 more than my copy of #9398. I can justify the extra $75 because I see it as a better model. However, now that #41999 is worth $500, that makes it $360 more than the original model. I can't justify opening it for that price so I'll sell it and build #9398 that only cost $140 instead.

I blame TLG for making so few #41999 's that even though I own it, I can't afford to build it.

JamesJT

That guy is still buying #41999. I can see 22 that he's bought this week. He is buying them from US and EU as well. He is a big reseller and is buying with the same account that he is selling, though he is not selling #41999 now. Would it be right to give his ebay shop here? Probably not.

dougts

So either he's going to make a mint on these when they jump from $400 to $600-$700 and beyond, or he's going to be stuck with a ton of inventory when resellers stop buying from resellers and the actual consumer/collector market dries up at inflated price points.

He probably won't lose much in the end, but he might be sitting on that stock quite some time. I guess we will see

Lobot

BoiseState said:

I see Lego is pumping out Millenium Falcons to retailers.. Seen quite a few new boxes on the shelves. They did this with Hogwarts right before it EOL'd.

The Falcon is in the new UK Argos catalogue, so I don't think it will be discontinued until after Christmas at the earliest.

jonboy2000

@JamesJT and that's just the ones he's buying ON ebay. I haven't sold any but I know for a fact that he has bought some OFF ebay.

CoraHarrison

jonboy2000 said:

@JamesJT and that's just the ones he's buying ON ebay. I haven't sold any but I know for a fact that he has bought some OFF ebay.

Just got the quote for my student loan for my final year... Now I'm wondering if he wants to come and buy mine :/

doriansdad

joel4motion said:

Can anyone see the #41999 NOT continuing to rise in value?

Only if TLG produces more. I will sell mine $700+ but if I missed out I would happily pay up to $1k for this unique item. Not surprising at all it is quickly heading to the prices of TLG's other numbered exclusive for 2013 (same crowd buying I imagine).

LegoFanTexas

dougts said:

So either he's going to make a mint on these when they jump from $400 to $600-$700 and beyond, or he's going to be stuck with a ton of inventory when resellers stop buying from resellers and the actual consumer/collector market dries up at inflated price points.

He probably won't lose much in the end, but he might be sitting on that stock quite some time. I guess we will see

Consider that even if he sells those 22 copies at cost, it may not matter if he ended up with 50 copies at $200. He is raising the price of the market as a whole, it might have nothing to do with the 22 copies he has purchased.

TheCableGuy

This buyer has bought more than 50 of these ON ebay in the last month (54 at my count).

He does have more than 100 items for sale on ebay right now but is not listed as a business. So you can be sure that if he's not declaring himself as a business on ebay then he's probably not declaring it as a business with the tax man either... naughty boy!

I'm sure we all know the rule by now, it's all about intent. You clearly do not buy 54+ of these and intend not to sell them so he should really be registered as a business.

madforLEGO

I think this whole price of the #41999 is due for a correction.
While it will go up now the question is this: How far is it really going to go if resellers are the majority of the market for these?
While I think they are going to go for more than the retail was I am guessing optimistically it will stabilize around 500, maybe even fall to 400-450 or lower eventually worst case.
Because the question is this: Are people buying because they are great models, or are people buying because it was limited? So in 1 year from now are people really going to still go after these, are they even going to be thought of? I mean a Limited MF is one thing, that is Star Wars, but limited Technic? While they have their market it is not nearly the size of the SW marketplace.
So I'm guessing there are guys that tie up their money in these, as long as they can sell them all after Christmas and not have to hold them to make money in a year, otherwise that is a lot of dough to have tied up in a bunch of plastic and cardboard sitting in a storage area or home.

doriansdad

madforLEGO said:

Because the question is this: Are people buying because they are great models, or are people buying because it was limited? So in 1 year from now are people really going to still go after these, are they even going to be thought of?

They are buying them because they are limited. This will be the technic set to own for the ages if you are a Lego collector. The gorgeous blue box, the mystery of which number plate you have but dare not find out....too cool not to own.

roxio

TheCableGuy said:

This buyer has bought more than 50 of these ON ebay in the last month (54 at my count).

He does have more than 100 items for sale on ebay right now but is not listed as a business. So you can be sure that if he's not declaring himself as a business on ebay then he's probably not declaring it as a business with the tax man either... naughty boy!

I'm sure we all know the rule by now, it's all about intent. You clearly do not buy 54+ of these and intend not to sell them so he should really be registered as a business.

Sadly, Ebay will do nothing about it

madforLEGO

doriansdad said:

madforLEGO said:

Because the question is this: Are people buying because they are great models, or are people buying because it was limited? So in 1 year from now are people really going to still go after these, are they even going to be thought of?

They are buying them because they are limited. This will be the technic set to own for the ages if you are a Lego collector. The gorgeous blue box, the mystery of which number plate you have but dare not find out....too cool not to own.

Says someone trying to sell them ;-)

roxio

madforLEGO said:

^--- says a guy trying to sell them...lol

??

Legofanscott

doriansdad said:

madforLEGO said:

Because the question is this: Are people buying because they are great models, or are people buying because it was limited? So in 1 year from now are people really going to still go after these, are they even going to be thought of?

They are buying them because they are limited. This will be the technic set to own for the ages if you are a Lego collector. The gorgeous blue box, the mystery of which number plate you have but dare not find out....too cool not to own.

This, i don't really think it matters right now whats on the inside of the box, this set is the first of its kind, yes 10179 was also a limited edition but it went on to become a normal mass produced set, this did not.

Having now seen and felt the box it certainly feels like a special set, only critiscism i have is its a shame it wasnt a traditional lego set.

doriansdad

Well our first moron has surfaced on bricklink...sitting on 20 sets in queens NY at $479...this should take the wind out of the sails for a few weeks.

Renny

Why is he a moron? If the seller chooses to sell his considerably sized stock at a certain price point and not wait to see if it increases, so be it. He or she is still making a very nice profit (if bought at retail).

Or maybe I misunderstood your post, and you are calling them him/her a moron for advertising they have way more than the original purchase limit?

Lootefisk

roxio said:

TheCableGuy said:

This buyer has bought more than 50 of these ON ebay in the last month (54 at my count).

He does have more than 100 items for sale on ebay right now but is not listed as a business. So you can be sure that if he's not declaring himself as a business on ebay then he's probably not declaring it as a business with the tax man either... naughty boy!

I'm sure we all know the rule by now, it's all about intent. You clearly do not buy 54+ of these and intend not to sell them so he should really be registered as a business.

Sadly, Ebay will do nothing about it

Making assumptions on whether or not this person is paying their taxes is not eBay's job to enforce. Just because someone is not registered as a business does not mean they are claiming that income on their taxes.

madforLEGO

Legofanscott said:

doriansdad said:

madforLEGO said:

Because the question is this: Are people buying because they are great models, or are people buying because it was limited? So in 1 year from now are people really going to still go after these, are they even going to be thought of?

They are buying them because they are limited. This will be the technic set to own for the ages if you are a Lego collector. The gorgeous blue box, the mystery of which number plate you have but dare not find out....too cool not to own.

This, i don't really think it matters right now whats on the inside of the box, this set is the first of its kind, yes 10179 was also a limited edition but it went on to become a normal mass produced set, this did not.

Having now seen and felt the box it certainly feels like a special set, only critiscism i have is its a shame it wasnt a traditional lego set.

I do not really buy into this though.
Why? Because you can either pay 199.99 for a Crawler set that is being produced now, or pay 400+ for essentially the same set with a few extras and it is limited, but lets say for example a parent is not going to care. They will simply say get the 9398 and since a kid is not likely to see the #41999 set on a shelf now I doubt you will hear a fuss.
Also since there were gone so fast how many casual fans of Technic are going to say Ohhh I HAVE to have THAT set, and not just buy a 9398 which is a lot more easily accessible and cheaper?
Will there be those that want these? Absolutely.. but how many people really in relation to the 20K (That are not trying to buy them speculating they are going up to 600+) want these and will be willing to pay dearly for something where an alternate version is available?
I see demand in these but I'm not sure I see the justification of the level of demand everyone else is seeing.
Is this 400+ dollar price tag due to people wanting these, or resellers driving up the prices because they are speculating they are going higher? I just see a chance at a bubble here.

LegoFanTexas

roxio said:

Sadly, Ebay will do nothing about it

What should eBay do about it? Are they a paid enforcer of the British Revenue Service?

Just asking. :)

LegoFanTexas

Renny said:

Why is he a moron?

his mistake is posting that he has 20 of them...

put up 2 of them, then sell those, then put up 2 more...

there is a reason to do it that way. :)

ColoradoBricks

^ but then you could not buy all 20, like s/he offering :)

Renny

^Thanks. That does make sense now since listing that many at one time reduces the urgency to buy one.

LegoFanTexas

Renny said:

^Thanks. That does make sense now since listing that many at one time reduces the urgency to buy one.

Yep... do you really think #41999 would have sold out so fast if they had made the same 20K, but not told anyone that was all they were making? :)

Perception is everything...

CupIsHalfEmpty

LegoFanTexas said:

Renny said:

Why is he a moron?

his mistake is posting that he has 20 of them...

put up 2 of them, then sell those, then put up 2 more...

there is a reason to do it that way. :)

Apparently he has 50 of them! Or 0.25% of everyone ever made.