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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    SiE said:

    Im just glad i managed to get one from [email protected], im more of a collector than a reseller and im a sucker for LE stuff, so no matter what the price i think i'll still keep it :)

    Even if they reach 1k?

    Maybe, but for the moment i cant see it reaching that in my head.

    Having said that, look at MF zombies :P
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I've already sold 2 of my 4 copies of #41999 - any time you can double your money in 10 days, is generally a good thing.

    Could I get $600 in 3 months? Perhaps.

    $600 by this time next year? Yes, I'm sure of it...

    But $400 today is not a bad deal. :)
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited August 2013
    ^I was debating the same thing (whether or not to try to sell mine now for $400 or wait for bigger returns). Unfortunately, I only was able to get a single copy; I waited too long to order online, and got lucky to find one in stock last night at a Lego store. I was thinking about keeping it, but then realized I'm probably too frugal to do that!

    I'm wondering if all the hype will attenuate in a few months. People might slowly forget about this set and/or come to their senses, and the set might drop to, say, $300 and slowly rise from there.

    Or worse, Lego might realize there is money to be made here, and release a non-customized version that will devalue the limited edition model.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    nkx1 said:

    ^I was debating the same thing (whether or not to try to sell mine now for $400 or wait for bigger returns). Unfortunately, I only was able to get a single copy; I waited too long to order online, and got lucky to find one in stock last night at a Lego store. I was thinking about keeping it, but then realized I'm probably too frugal to do that!

    I'm wondering if all the hype will attenuate in a few months. People might slowly forget about this set and/or come to their senses, and the set might drop to, say, $300 and slowly rise from there.

    Or worse, Lego might realize there is money to be made here, and release a non-customized version that will devalue the limited edition model.

    The limited edition will probably always be at a premium even if they did another run of them that didnt have the unique plate/box.

    How much of a premium does the 1st edition MF #10179 now fetch compared to the non first editions?

  • gordonfgordonf Banned Posts: 18
    I'm glad I have 3 #41999's on the closet shelf. We'll have to see what happens with the price.
  • black_towrblack_towr MinnesotaMember Posts: 165
    I was walking around the Lego store with the last one they had on the shelf today but in the end i put it back on the shelf.
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079

    I was walking around the Lego store with the last one they had on the shelf today but in the end i put it back on the shelf.

    Don't this belong in this thread: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/47/the-one-that-got-away-biggest-non-purchase-regret#latest ;)
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited August 2013
    ^^At the current going rate of about $400 or more on ebay, that's a bit like walking past $120 laying around in the street! It might 20-30 minutes to list it, pack it and drop it off at FedEx.

    Of course, if you don't really care about the money, that was very nice of you to leave it for the next reseller, um I mean little Timmy, to buy. I'm actually quite surprised a store had any left as of today. I called around to four stores in my area today at opening time, and all told me they were sold out.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    I thought this might be appropriate
    JessyDooDahcanuckHarryPotterLover
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,322
    That video made me cringe.., I've never heard the word "Legos" repeated so many times in such a short timeframe. *shudders
    fitzyfitz
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Afraid of a little colloquialism?
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    edited August 2013
    What do you guys think about the bad availability of set 10237, is this the first sight of Lego keeping exclusives away from big retailers? I have to pay at least 230 euro here in Europe to get one.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,257
    ^Lego typically sells their exclusive sets for 3-4 months exclusively before letting Amazon and the rest have them. Should be in other channels this Autumn sometime.
    hendrikdejager
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 111
    Seems too good to be true from an unlikely source, but I just ordered an "in stock" #41999 from TRU for $169.99. Promo code EXTRA15.

    toysrus.com/product/index.jsp?productId=23263636&searchURL=false
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    3 more #41999 sold this morning on ebay UK. 6***K is still buying and pushing prices ever upward.
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    Has anyone on here sold one to this guy? I am curious if he is actually paying for them.
  • theayeshaveittheayeshaveit Member Posts: 48
    The buyer has had a positive feedback for one so he has definitely paid for at least one!

  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    What do you guys think about the first Minecraft set? If it is no longer around when the other 2 sets announced at Comic Con come around it might raise to $150.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,612
    Hmm, Wonder how many TRU actually got, my guess is not that many.
    Wonder if they will get another batch, although truth be told it would have been nicer to get them at 169
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,322
    Trenth said:

    Afraid of a little colloquialism?

    @Trenth- You've just given me my word of the day :o)
    Trenth
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    Wondering what you would think to the investment in #21101...

    Just wondered about the potential investment in Cuusoo especially to EU buyers as I can't seem to find 21101 for sale inside the UK at least...
  • CapnRex101CapnRex101 United KingdomAdministrator Posts: 2,282
    @samiam391 - If you are looking for a word of the year, make it this one: http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/floccinaucinihilipilification :o) That really is a cracker of a word.
    Brickarmorjimmyp1982
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,322

    @samiam391 - If you are looking for a word of the year, make it this one: http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/floccinaucinihilipilification :o) That really is a cracker of a word.

    I think making that type of vocabulary my word of the day would be an absolute floccinaucinihilipification!
    GothamConstructionCo
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    Not to get sidetracked, but it's been awhile since I've sold anything on amazon and it appears that certain sets do better on amazon, whereas others do better on craigslist or ebay. Can someone provide a quick pros/cons of selling on amazon vs. ebay? I run into a ton of fraudulent buyers on ebay, but so far paypal has been good with fraud. I haven't been stung yet, but definitely not look forward to the first time I am.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Amazon's prices tend to run 10% higher overall than eBay, but not always... sometimes more than that, sometimes actually less than eBay. Also, keep in mind that you have no sales history on Amazon, just because something is listed for $400 doesn't mean it is selling at that price. I have a number of items just sitting there not moving any units at $300 that are selling every week at $250 on eBay.

    Amazon considers everyone selling there to be a "business", even if you sell 1 item, they don't care, they don't want to hear, "but I'm not a business, I'm just selling a few things". The Amazon seller forums are full of whining posts from new sellers complaining about the rules.

    The biggest issue with selling on Amazon is that you can't refuse returns, even if opened.

    If someone buys a $400 retired set and opens it, then returns it, you can charge a 20% restocking fee, but often the value has dropped by more than that, and you might or might not get all the parts back.

    If the customer complains and says it was missing parts, you're more or less up a creek without a paddle.

    If you're a volume seller, you can absorb those little hits, if you're just selling 5 sets, it can make the whole thing pointless.

    Anyone who is used to eBay and thinks they might want to sell on Amazon, read this:

    https://sellercentral.amazon.com/forums/thread.jspa?threadID=15737&tstart=-1

    It’s a long list. Amazon is a strict marketplace. If you grade your widgets accurately, pack well, ship quickly, communicate well and practice the Golden Rule in customer service, you should do fine.
    LegoPodcaster
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405

    @samiam391 - If you are looking for a word of the year, make it this one: http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/floccinaucinihilipilification :o) That really is a cracker of a word.

    Who you calling a cracker? ;)
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair London, UKMember Posts: 2,646
    edited August 2013
    As Lego will give out the Lego Mini Volkswagen T1 Camper Van with purchases over £50/$75 in September 2013, Does this mean the Lego Volkswagen T1 Camper Van #10220 will be discontinued after Christmas 2013? Its safe for me as I will hopefully be getting it on September 1st 2013 ahead of the other 2013 exclusives.
  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 421
    Adzbadboy said:

    As Lego will give out the Lego Mini Volkswagen T1 Camper Van with purchases over £50/$75 in September 2013, Does this mean the Lego Volkswagen T1 Camper Van #10220 will be discontinued after Christmas 2013? Its safe for me as I will hopefully be getting it on September 1st 2013 ahead of the other 2013 exclusives.

    I hope so as I have a few to sell when the price goes up. Unfortunately I can see it being around for another year as it is a very good seller and rarely found at a discount.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    ^I keep waiting for it just to come down a little bit, say $100. That would be fantastic.
    bgl_84
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    /\ Ill take 40 for $100 alex.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,612
    edited August 2013
    ^-It has hit that on Amazon in the past I believe, just have to wait until the fall shopping season starts
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    Looks like the last time it was sub $100 was March. I have a feeling it won't be there again, entering the busy fall season. And seemingly lack of good Black Friday / end of year bargains from Lego these days.
    FollowsClosely
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,612
    ^ It all depends on how badly Amazon wants to move stock to be honest.. They are not (yet) like TRU in charging 20% over retail in order to mess with consumers, they want to get it out of their warehouses if they have no more coming in I'm sure..
    Plus it all depends on how bad other retailers that Amazon price match want to get rid of their stock as well.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    The Volkswagen Camper Van is almost never found on discount. Amazon kept it at $116 for a long time, but I haven't even seen it at that price in awhile now. The best bet for getting this set at a discount may very well be Double VIP whenever they do it again.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,612
    edited August 2013
    Last fall Amazon had the VW Van numerous times for $99.99. I know because I bought them when it was 99.99, at least Sept thru Oct '12.
    I would not be surprised to see them hit 99 again this fall.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I will buy the VW Van this BF with 10% off and whatever xmas promo set they will release this year (e.g.3300014 goes for around $30). With bonus cashback this should bring the price down to around $75 provided this years promo set is decent.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055

    Last fall Amazon had the VW Van numerous times for $99.99. I know because I bought them when it was 99.99, at least Sept thru Oct '12.
    I would not be surprised to see them hit 99 again this fall.

    Is it common to see amazon fall sales on the more expensive sets? I have been watching most of the Modulars for months now and have not seen any significant reductions with the exception of the TH ($170s). I've been waiting for a sale on the VeeDub as well.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,612
    ^Ally depends on Amazon and if a store like Walmart decides to discount Mods like they did last year.. the prices we really insane for about 24 hours (until they sold out) for some of the sets listed.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    I wonder how people see the last four Lego Games. It seems they will only see a very limited release. Are they available anywhere else besides [email protected] Germany? (Story Mixer might not be available even there.)

    I wonder what that will do to their resale value given that almost all other Lego Games were very poor sellers and a total flop.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    These are mostly aimed at kinds, not much profit to be made there.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,443
    I'd say they were aimed at families rather than just kids.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Families with kids most likely, I don't see many families without kids playing them really. Either way, not something that will make many pay 2x retail or more for them.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    Maybe the Star Wars Battle of Hoth once it is gone. Especially since it is an import item.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    edited August 2013
    Well, if they are not released in the US then all the others will be import items as well.

    Batman and LOTR games might have appeal among fans of the licences. And Story Mixer is rumoured to be a decent game / interesting concept that could have been similarly successful as Creationary. Problem is that if these are only produced in limited quantities then they probably won't ever be on a sale. And I agree that at full RRP they still don't seem like a good investment.

    Battle of Hoth is I think a good buy at half or more off for European resellers. (And it could be had for that low cost in several countries probably. Surely in UK, Germany and Hungary.) If nothing else than for parting out.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited August 2013
    I think the VW van will stay. The sets I could see discontinuing would be Robbie House #21010 ,Passenger Train #7938 ,Unimog #8110 ,The Mellenium Falcon #7965 ,Vampyre Castle #9468 ,Joust #10223. Maybe Cargo Train #7939 ,The Mine #4204, Logging Truck #9397 ,Jabba's Palace #9516 and maybe either FB or GE.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited August 2013
    Of the currently available sets, what are your top 5 most likely to succeed?

    Mine are:

    #40079 VW Camper Van
    #10226 Sopwith Camel
    #10233 Horizon Express
    (all of the above are sleepers and are rarely discounted)
    #7965 Millennium Falcon
    (great set for what it is, could be hurt by re-releases, but it's still iconic)
    #79111 Constitution Train Chase
    (I have a feeling people will kill for this thing after it's gone)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,612
    I think both trains will stay until replacements are out for both, at least that is how it has been done for the last decade and i do not see that changing.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2013
    @tensor... I pretty much agree with your list.

    I think the Falcon will take awhile to appreciate much, maybe 2 years. Primarily after most resellers have sold their inventory. So, I would put move it down a slot. Iconic yes. A lot produced and sold, yes and yes.

    I think the Camper and Camel will do well out of the chute, much like Emerald Night.

    I think the Constitution will do very well, because I simply have the feeling it won't be around very long, and not many were bought and sold. I put it above the HE.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    #7938 has seen some steep discounts at Amazon UK, so there have been opportunities to lay in. The Mine, I dunno, one may do well if they were bought at 30% off or less. It was a hit last Xmas, thats true enough. Needless to say the mods are a toss up now: I think only insider info from the production lines would be any use determining what's going or staying. #79111 is really appealing, as regards aesthetics, price point, and storage. One for the long haul though.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,612
    edited August 2013
    The #79111 Constitution set has a nice Loco and Tender and that is it.
    The HE is well built as well as a complete train.
    I do not agree it can be put above HE, maybe if the HE is still in production when the Constitution set retires.
    It is unknown territory as this this is a license train, BUT one that can ride on standard LEGO track and can be motorized so I think it will do well, but not as well as HE will do when it goes I think.
    Also I still have a feeling LEGO is going to have to discount these to get rid of them, so expect the price to stay down if that occurs and LEGO has a ton of them.

    Also if Amazon.com has sales in the fall like last year all the resellers will likely pounce, but they will be limited, and after seeing that Amazon does enforce its limits then this will help stem the amount bought by those wanting 10-15 of them
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