Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

nkx1

^I was debating the same thing (whether or not to try to sell mine now for $400 or wait for bigger returns). Unfortunately, I only was able to get a single copy; I waited too long to order online, and got lucky to find one in stock last night at a Lego store. I was thinking about keeping it, but then realized I'm probably too frugal to do that!

I'm wondering if all the hype will attenuate in a few months. People might slowly forget about this set and/or come to their senses, and the set might drop to, say, $300 and slowly rise from there.

Or worse, Lego might realize there is money to be made here, and release a non-customized version that will devalue the limited edition model.

Billybrown

nkx1 said:

^I was debating the same thing (whether or not to try to sell mine now for $400 or wait for bigger returns). Unfortunately, I only was able to get a single copy; I waited too long to order online, and got lucky to find one in stock last night at a Lego store. I was thinking about keeping it, but then realized I'm probably too frugal to do that!

I'm wondering if all the hype will attenuate in a few months. People might slowly forget about this set and/or come to their senses, and the set might drop to, say, $300 and slowly rise from there.

Or worse, Lego might realize there is money to be made here, and release a non-customized version that will devalue the limited edition model.

The limited edition will probably always be at a premium even if they did another run of them that didnt have the unique plate/box.

How much of a premium does the 1st edition MF #10179 now fetch compared to the non first editions?

gordonf

I'm glad I have 3 #41999's on the closet shelf. We'll have to see what happens with the price.

black_towr

I was walking around the Lego store with the last one they had on the shelf today but in the end i put it back on the shelf.

Diggydoes

black_towr said:

I was walking around the Lego store with the last one they had on the shelf today but in the end i put it back on the shelf.

Don't this belong in this thread: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/47/the-one-that-got-away-biggest-non-purchase-regret#latest ;)

nkx1

^^At the current going rate of about $400 or more on ebay, that's a bit like walking past $120 laying around in the street! It might 20-30 minutes to list it, pack it and drop it off at FedEx.

Of course, if you don't really care about the money, that was very nice of you to leave it for the next reseller, um I mean little Timmy, to buy. I'm actually quite surprised a store had any left as of today. I called around to four stores in my area today at opening time, and all told me they were sold out.

Trenth

I thought this might be appropriate http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVCOAFKjaoY

samiam391

That video made me cringe.., I've never heard the word "Legos" repeated so many times in such a short timeframe. *shudders

Trenth

Afraid of a little colloquialism?

hendrikdejager

What do you guys think about the bad availability of set 10237, is this the first sight of Lego keeping exclusives away from big retailers? I have to pay at least 230 euro here in Europe to get one.

Bumblepants

^Lego typically sells their exclusive sets for 3-4 months exclusively before letting Amazon and the rest have them. Should be in other channels this Autumn sometime.

itsnotme

Seems too good to be true from an unlikely source, but I just ordered an "in stock" #41999 from TRU for $169.99. Promo code EXTRA15.

toysrus.com/product/index.jsp?productId=23263636&searchURL=false

JamesJT

3 more #41999 sold this morning on ebay UK. 6***K is still buying and pushing prices ever upward.

SiE

Has anyone on here sold one to this guy? I am curious if he is actually paying for them.

theayeshaveit

The buyer has had a positive feedback for one so he has definitely paid for at least one!

hendrikdejager

What do you guys think about the first Minecraft set? If it is no longer around when the other 2 sets announced at Comic Con come around it might raise to $150.

madforLEGO

Hmm, Wonder how many TRU actually got, my guess is not that many.
Wonder if they will get another batch, although truth be told it would have been nicer to get them at 169

samiam391

Trenth said:

Afraid of a little colloquialism?

@Trenth- You've just given me my word of the day :o)

CoraHarrison

Wondering what you would think to the investment in #21101...

Just wondered about the potential investment in Cuusoo especially to EU buyers as I can't seem to find 21101 for sale inside the UK at least...

CapnRex101

@samiam391 - If you are looking for a word of the year, make it this one: http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/floccinaucinihilipilification :o) That really is a cracker of a word.

samiam391

CapnRex101 said:

@samiam391 - If you are looking for a word of the year, make it this one: http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/floccinaucinihilipilification :o) That really is a cracker of a word.

I think making that type of vocabulary my word of the day would be an absolute floccinaucinihilipification!

jcb193

Not to get sidetracked, but it's been awhile since I've sold anything on amazon and it appears that certain sets do better on amazon, whereas others do better on craigslist or ebay. Can someone provide a quick pros/cons of selling on amazon vs. ebay? I run into a ton of fraudulent buyers on ebay, but so far paypal has been good with fraud. I haven't been stung yet, but definitely not look forward to the first time I am.

LegoFanTexas

Amazon's prices tend to run 10% higher overall than eBay, but not always... sometimes more than that, sometimes actually less than eBay. Also, keep in mind that you have no sales history on Amazon, just because something is listed for $400 doesn't mean it is selling at that price. I have a number of items just sitting there not moving any units at $300 that are selling every week at $250 on eBay.

Amazon considers everyone selling there to be a "business", even if you sell 1 item, they don't care, they don't want to hear, "but I'm not a business, I'm just selling a few things". The Amazon seller forums are full of whining posts from new sellers complaining about the rules.

The biggest issue with selling on Amazon is that you can't refuse returns, even if opened.

If someone buys a $400 retired set and opens it, then returns it, you can charge a 20% restocking fee, but often the value has dropped by more than that, and you might or might not get all the parts back.

If the customer complains and says it was missing parts, you're more or less up a creek without a paddle.

If you're a volume seller, you can absorb those little hits, if you're just selling 5 sets, it can make the whole thing pointless.

Anyone who is used to eBay and thinks they might want to sell on Amazon, read this:

https://sellercentral.amazon.com/forums/thread.jspa?threadID=15737&tstart=-1

It’s a long list. Amazon is a strict marketplace. If you grade your widgets accurately, pack well, ship quickly, communicate well and practice the Golden Rule in customer service, you should do fine.

Pitfall69

CapnRex101 said:

@samiam391 - If you are looking for a word of the year, make it this one: http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/floccinaucinihilipilification :o) That really is a cracker of a word.

Who you calling a cracker? ;)

AdeelZubair

As Lego will give out the Lego Mini Volkswagen T1 Camper Van with purchases over £50/$75 in September 2013, Does this mean the Lego Volkswagen T1 Camper Van #10220 will be discontinued after Christmas 2013? Its safe for me as I will hopefully be getting it on September 1st 2013 ahead of the other 2013 exclusives.

jasonord69a

Adzbadboy said:

As Lego will give out the Lego Mini Volkswagen T1 Camper Van with purchases over £50/$75 in September 2013, Does this mean the Lego Volkswagen T1 Camper Van #10220 will be discontinued after Christmas 2013? Its safe for me as I will hopefully be getting it on September 1st 2013 ahead of the other 2013 exclusives.

I hope so as I have a few to sell when the price goes up. Unfortunately I can see it being around for another year as it is a very good seller and rarely found at a discount.

prevere

^I keep waiting for it just to come down a little bit, say $100. That would be fantastic.

FollowsClosely

/\ Ill take 40 for $100 alex.

madforLEGO

^-It has hit that on Amazon in the past I believe, just have to wait until the fall shopping season starts

prevere

Looks like the last time it was sub $100 was March. I have a feeling it won't be there again, entering the busy fall season. And seemingly lack of good Black Friday / end of year bargains from Lego these days.

madforLEGO

^ It all depends on how badly Amazon wants to move stock to be honest.. They are not (yet) like TRU in charging 20% over retail in order to mess with consumers, they want to get it out of their warehouses if they have no more coming in I'm sure..
Plus it all depends on how bad other retailers that Amazon price match want to get rid of their stock as well.

Dougout

The Volkswagen Camper Van is almost never found on discount. Amazon kept it at $116 for a long time, but I haven't even seen it at that price in awhile now. The best bet for getting this set at a discount may very well be Double VIP whenever they do it again.

madforLEGO

Last fall Amazon had the VW Van numerous times for $99.99. I know because I bought them when it was 99.99, at least Sept thru Oct '12.
I would not be surprised to see them hit 99 again this fall.

doriansdad

I will buy the VW Van this BF with 10% off and whatever xmas promo set they will release this year (e.g.3300014 goes for around $30). With bonus cashback this should bring the price down to around $75 provided this years promo set is decent.

CircleK

madforLEGO said:

Last fall Amazon had the VW Van numerous times for $99.99. I know because I bought them when it was 99.99, at least Sept thru Oct '12.
I would not be surprised to see them hit 99 again this fall.

Is it common to see amazon fall sales on the more expensive sets? I have been watching most of the Modulars for months now and have not seen any significant reductions with the exception of the TH ($170s). I've been waiting for a sale on the VeeDub as well.

madforLEGO

^Ally depends on Amazon and if a store like Walmart decides to discount Mods like they did last year.. the prices we really insane for about 24 hours (until they sold out) for some of the sets listed.

Hardrada

I wonder how people see the last four Lego Games. It seems they will only see a very limited release. Are they available anywhere else besides S@H Germany? (Story Mixer might not be available even there.)

I wonder what that will do to their resale value given that almost all other Lego Games were very poor sellers and a total flop.

vitreolum

These are mostly aimed at kinds, not much profit to be made there.

CCC

I'd say they were aimed at families rather than just kids.

vitreolum

Families with kids most likely, I don't see many families without kids playing them really. Either way, not something that will make many pay 2x retail or more for them.

pharmjod

Maybe the Star Wars Battle of Hoth once it is gone. Especially since it is an import item.

Hardrada

Well, if they are not released in the US then all the others will be import items as well.

Batman and LOTR games might have appeal among fans of the licences. And Story Mixer is rumoured to be a decent game / interesting concept that could have been similarly successful as Creationary. Problem is that if these are only produced in limited quantities then they probably won't ever be on a sale. And I agree that at full RRP they still don't seem like a good investment.

Battle of Hoth is I think a good buy at half or more off for European resellers. (And it could be had for that low cost in several countries probably. Surely in UK, Germany and Hungary.) If nothing else than for parting out.

Dougout

I think the VW van will stay. The sets I could see discontinuing would be Robbie House #21010 ,Passenger Train #7938 ,Unimog #8110 ,The Mellenium Falcon #7965 ,Vampyre Castle #9468 ,Joust #10223. Maybe Cargo Train #7939 ,The Mine #4204, Logging Truck #9397 ,Jabba's Palace #9516 and maybe either FB or GE.

TheLoneTensor

Of the currently available sets, what are your top 5 most likely to succeed?

Mine are:

#40079 VW Camper Van
#10226 Sopwith Camel
#10233 Horizon Express
(all of the above are sleepers and are rarely discounted)
#7965 Millennium Falcon
(great set for what it is, could be hurt by re-releases, but it's still iconic)
#79111 Constitution Train Chase
(I have a feeling people will kill for this thing after it's gone)

madforLEGO

I think both trains will stay until replacements are out for both, at least that is how it has been done for the last decade and i do not see that changing.

cloaked7

@tensor... I pretty much agree with your list.

I think the Falcon will take awhile to appreciate much, maybe 2 years. Primarily after most resellers have sold their inventory. So, I would put move it down a slot. Iconic yes. A lot produced and sold, yes and yes.

I think the Camper and Camel will do well out of the chute, much like Emerald Night.

I think the Constitution will do very well, because I simply have the feeling it won't be around very long, and not many were bought and sold. I put it above the HE.

Brickarmor

#7938 has seen some steep discounts at Amazon UK, so there have been opportunities to lay in. The Mine, I dunno, one may do well if they were bought at 30% off or less. It was a hit last Xmas, thats true enough. Needless to say the mods are a toss up now: I think only insider info from the production lines would be any use determining what's going or staying. #79111 is really appealing, as regards aesthetics, price point, and storage. One for the long haul though.

madforLEGO

The #79111 Constitution set has a nice Loco and Tender and that is it.
The HE is well built as well as a complete train.
I do not agree it can be put above HE, maybe if the HE is still in production when the Constitution set retires.
It is unknown territory as this this is a license train, BUT one that can ride on standard LEGO track and can be motorized so I think it will do well, but not as well as HE will do when it goes I think.
Also I still have a feeling LEGO is going to have to discount these to get rid of them, so expect the price to stay down if that occurs and LEGO has a ton of them.

Also if Amazon.com has sales in the fall like last year all the resellers will likely pounce, but they will be limited, and after seeing that Amazon does enforce its limits then this will help stem the amount bought by those wanting 10-15 of them

madforLEGO

tensor said:

Of the currently available sets, what are your top 5 most likely to succeed?

Mine are:

#40079 VW Camper Van
#10226 Sopwith Camel
#10233 Horizon Express
(all of the above are sleepers and are rarely discounted)
#7965 Millennium Falcon
(great set for what it is, could be hurt by re-releases, but it's still iconic)
#79111 Constitution Train Chase
(I have a feeling people will kill for this thing after it's gone)

By 'succeed', do you mean overall increases forever?
If so, You forgot FB and DS.
Joking aside, these will rise regardless of how long they have been out (unless they never EOL them which is doubtful)

Assuming these go EOL this year I would say mine are:
Death Star
Fire Brigade
unimog
Haunted house
Arkham Asylum
honorable mention: Grand Emporium
41999 Technic Exclusive crawler

I'm sure I'm forgetting others as well.

doriansdad

I would say VW Van if it EOLs this year. There are some nice ones on the above list but they will be around in 2014 or longer. Fire Brigade...well we all saw what happened with 10193....waste of time.