Shopping at LEGO or Amazon?
Please use our links: LEGO.comAmazon
As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

12627293132679

Comments

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I'm surprised you're selling so soon...those prices are going to go considerably higher as the year goes on. With the ones I bought the other day, I've now got 30 and I am not going to be as hasty as I was with the Taj Mahal and Grand Carousel last year, both of which I sold right around this time last year for a similarly modest profit.
    Space and time...

    I had 22 of them, now I have 20... I'm going to sell 10 more over the next month to clear out some space.

    At the end of the day, storage costs money, so while they will be worth more in a year, what does it cost to store them all that time.

    I did a rough inventory this week, I've got at least 2,000 sealed sets saved for future sale, one has to draw the line somewhere... IF takes up a lot of space, moving half of them frees up space that can fit a lot of smaller sets. I own a bunch of EN as well (40 of them as of tonight), I'm selling half of those now for the same reason.

    Cashflow is the other reason, I've put quite a bit of money into Lego in the past 2 months, I'd like to see some of it back. There is something to be said for the fast nickle over the slow dime.

    Finally, I don't see IF doing what TM and GC did, those were unique sets that will never be done again. Lego has done ships before and will do more in the future. Will IF get to $600? Yes, I think it will, but how many will sell at that price and over what period of time?

    I'm sure that 2 or 4 of them will sit for a long time earning money, but sometimes the return in the first month, percentage-wise, is the best you'll ever get.

    These are just my thoughts, and you make good points. Thankfully I have enough of them that I can have my cake and eat it too, sell some now and double my money, save the other half and try to quadruple it.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Depends on your definition of modest, I suppose, but doubling your money in basically two months isn't bad at all. I won't be selling mine straightaway, but I also own considerably fewer of these than @LegoFanTexas.
    Even better, since I paid $125 each for the two that I sold... :)

    Yes, doing that in 2 months is the key, if I could repeat that every two months, I'd be a rich man...

    I will say, that is the key problem with holding sets for a long period of time. While the multiple is nice, the average return is not. Perhaps still better than the stock market as a whole, but when sets double in price the month after they retire, the good money has been made. If it takes a year to double again, then actually keeping them for a year is a poor investment.

    Flipping the money over and over is where the real profits are, in this business and in most businesses, which is why Walmart and others do the clearance thing. Yes, they could keep the sets and make more total dollars over time, but business model after business model shows that in the long run, they actually make more money clearancing out the slow stuff to be replaced with faster moving product.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2012
    @LegoFanTexas - At the end of the day, storage costs money, so while they will be worth more in a year, what does it cost to store them all that time.
    Amen, Brother, Amen!
    @LegoFanTexas - Finally, I don't see IF doing what TM and GC did, those were unique sets that will never be done again. Lego has done ships before and will do more in the future.
    I think comparing the IF to the TM and GC is comparing apples to oranges. The TM and GC were both more expensive sets (when the value of the dollar was higher) than the IF, which means less people could probably afford those particular sets. Granted, the IF is also an expense set (compared to the average price of other Lego sets), but it is also much more playable (making it more sought after). While I agree Lego will certainly do more ships in the future (and could do another IF-type ship within five years), they could just as easily do a large motorized ferris wheel or a large Buckingham Palace (or any number of iconic buildings) which would interest me more than a motorized carousel or Taj Mahal. Actually, I could see the Taj Mahal being done again at some point because it is so iconic.
    @LegoFanTexas - If it takes a year to double again, then actually keeping them for a year is a poor investment.
    Hmmm....that assumes you have new, comparable sets with similar profit potential to replace the set you sold. A good question to ask is whether the rising popularity of Legos (and secondary market sellers) is making newer sets less profitable on the secondary market.

    Just my thoughts...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    While I agree Lego will certainly do more ships in the future (and could do another IF-type ship within five years), they could just as easily do a large motorized ferris wheel or a large Buckingham Palace (or any number of iconic buildings) which would interest me more than a motorized carousel or Taj Mahal. Actually, I could see the Taj Mahal being done again at some point because it is so iconic.
    Lego already did a motorized ferris wheel. :)
    Hmmm....that assumes you have new, comparable sets with similar profit potential to replace the set you sold. A good question to ask is whether the rising popularity of Legos (and secondary market sellers) is making newer sets less profitable on the secondary market.
    Yes, but I have other things besides Lego to invest money in. I agree that there are not retiring sets every month to do this with, but I also have a business in real life that could use the money as well. :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,236
    edited January 2012
    Plus you also have to consider that a lot of people collect the ships because they are ships, and It is unknown (maybe even unlikely) that LEGO does another ship this big and detailed.. Rumors are that Pirates will come back, but probably only after PoTC is long gone. So the ship should in crease in value, because I also doubt people though the grand Carousel would hit 600 as well.



  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    edited January 2012
    If I could double my money within a month or two on half the inventory I have of a certain set, I would love that. That pays for the costs of the remaining half and you can let the remaining sets ride for awhile risk free.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2012
    Lego already did a motorized ferris wheel. :)
    Dang!!!! I missed it??? I did see a smaller ($70) ferris wheel set that had been released, but I would like to see one on the scale of the Tower Bridge. That would be sweet!
    Yes, but I have other things besides Lego to invest money in. I agree that there are not retiring sets every month to do this with, but I also have a business in real life that could use the money as well. :)
    Completely understand...one must prioritize.

    I do wish I had purchased both the GC and TM when I had the opportunity. Unfortunately, I wasn't collecting more that SW and some less expensive sets at the time.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    My two Imperial Flagships just arrived in the mail!
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    ^~~ Same here...Yay!

    And Fedex left it behind my house...uncovered...all day...in the rain!! Boooo!

    "So uhhh, should I put it underneath this covered porch Bubba?"

    "Doooh, no no Jimbob, leave it here in the back exposed to all this rain, cardboard can withstand water for at least a good 15 minutes, or so I have heard."

    Anyway, Lego made it right...very impressive customer service.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    @tk79 what was the fix from Lego for it? Discounted or shipping out a new set for you?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Lego already did a motorized ferris wheel. :)
    Dang!!!! I missed it??? I did see a smaller ($70) ferris wheel set that had been released, but I would like to see one on the scale of the Tower Bridge. That would be sweet!
    http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=4957-1

    Yep, and it was a thousand part set as well, motorized, so unlikely they'll do another one for awhile, but this can still be purchased for a reasonable price. I picked one up brand new sealed in box the other day for about $200.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    @tk79 - I'd be interested in this, too. By the time I got home, the bottom box was entirely soaked through, and the IF inside was pretty much ruined. If I can't do anything about it, that'll just be the one I open, but I'd prefer to have a box in mildly good shape.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,236
    Not surprised.. isn't Fed Ex the company that the driver on that web vid chucking a TV over a fence was working for?
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    I have a spare (unboxed) ferris wheel if anyones interested (PM me)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @Si_Dorking_Surrey_UK - shame you're in the UK for this, I'd be interested in it, to keep the one I bought MISB (boy does it look nice!)

    Did I mention I don't like breaking the seals on retired sets that are mint condition? :)

    How much do you want for it?
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    @LegoFanTexas,

    Whilst not a reseller, I do not what you mean abour breaking seals on retired sets. I have a good few sets now that I have bought, not got round to opening, and are now retired. When you start to here about the value going up, it does make it slightly harder to open the sets! I think the best example I have is an immaculate Sandcrawler that I kep meaning to open, but it just kept getting queued up behind other sets that I was opening and building (as well as Mocs). It's therefore still in the cupboard, and I need those Jawa's out of it!

    rich
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    ^ Might be more cost effective to just buy someone else's Jawas :)
    Must admit that sandcrawler is one of the few SW sets that I like (probably because it's not grey!)

    ^^ @LFT - no idea mate, PM me with offers. Since there's no box it's much more easily postable.
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    @y2josh I feel your pain. Customer service was very thorough in looking for a replacement. They even called every store, but 10210 is gone for good now. They did give a discount though. I would call them if you're as unhappy with FedEx as I was.

    In defense of FedEx, they've always been great with my Lego shipments before this one. Not sure what the driver was thinking in this case...it's fine to "hide" the boxes, but not if it's going to rain on them.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    uhhh I'm currently looking for a sandcrawler. I think current prices are $250-300 for a MISB. That's not as bad as the Rebel Snowspeeder I want though. That I will most likely be getting used.

    @tk79 That stinks your IF was ruined. Fedex usually does a great drop with dropping packages off at my house. Last time I got a package in bad weather, they put the box in a giant plastic bag so the snow couldn't get to it.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    So 10210 is gone, huh?

    As a side note, has anyone noticed that 10193 is stuck on Amazon at between 88 and 77 units? I've watched it several times since last night, and it isn't moving much, but the sales rank says it should be.

    Me thinks Amazon is playing with the inventory count... I also think that even for all the attention given this set, it is going to double within a month of retiring...

    On a completely unrelated note, just looked at my Lego VIP status on their web site, at the bottom of the page it says:

    "Since you have joined the VIP Program, you have earned a total 30994 Points. There must be a very happy LEGO Fan close to you."

    I need a 12 step program...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Me thinks Amazon is playing with the inventory count... I also think that even for all the attention given this set, it is going to double within a month of retiring...

    On a completely unrelated note, just looked at my Lego VIP status on their web site, at the bottom of the page it says: "Since you have joined the VIP Program, you have earned a total 30994 Points. There must be a very happy LEGO Fan close to you." I need a 12 step program...
    I agree on MMV doubling very quickly. That set would even be a good "brandywine" for LotR. I have one setting out right now waiting for an opportunity to build with the kids.

    As for the VIP Program totals, I, too, have "a very happy LEGO Fan close to me." I think it does Lego a disservice to have the points posted like that. Every time I see my numbers, I promise myself I am going to try harder not to purchase additional sets. It's like a flashing red light indicating that my wife is correct when she rolls her eyes at me when FEDEX stacks boxes at our front door.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Funny you should mention the wife... My wife and I just had a conversation this morning, she asked me if I was really happy having SO much Lego in the house.

    You know what? It is a little overwhelming... I have to admit that... We haven't built MMV yet, or dozens of other sets, that are all in the closet in "the list" to be built.

    My wife suggested that I take everything out of the closet this weekend and put it all into two equal piles, one to keep, one to sell. I can keep any half of it I want, but I should be ok to sell the other half. Otherwise, she might call TLC and put me on "Horders". :)

    So that is what I'll be doing this weekend, figuring out what I really want to keep and what I can let go.

    For example, we now have almost the entire Atlantis, Ninjago, and Pharaohs Quest lines (thanks to after Christmas sales). Do we REALLY want to build ALL of those? Where would we display them? When would we play with them?

    I'm tempted to keep Ninjago since it will have a continuing story line, but other than the dragons, the sets do nothing for me. Atlantis is cool, my son will love the sets that transform, and I love Pharaohs Quest because it looks like Indiana Jones.

    Then we have World Racers, Creator sets, all the City sets (still haven't built Airport or Police Station), Star Wars, PotC, HP, and various other sets.

    Hmm, what to keep and what to sell... She is right of course, it has to go, I got carried away and though I was going to actually build it all, but I find "the list" is growing longer by the day and I just don't have time to build them all.

    I did have one good idea... Instead of trying to collect all the big sets, I'll become a polybag collector. Takes up much less space, costs far less money, and our house won't look like a Lego store. :)
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    edited January 2012
    Dont forget that a built set takes up about 2/3 of the space of MSIB, and parted-out takes up about half the space (my guess). Then you can just pour it all into a bucket and build some awesome MoCs :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    My wife suggested that I take everything out of the closet this weekend and put it all into two equal piles, one to keep, one to sell. I can keep any half of it I want, but I should be ok to sell the other half. Otherwise, she might call TLC and put me on "Horders". :)
    But what happens if aliens land on the planet and only allow lego hoarders to survive???? I mean, anything is possible...the wives just have to understand that. ;-)

    To your wife's point, I doubt that I will ever build 5% of what I own. The tricky part is trying to determine what that 5% actually is...they all look like a blast to build. Then I start getting wrapped around the axle and thinking that I will want to give certain sets to my kids when they grow up as a reminder of their childhood, etc. It's a comlex life being a lego collector and also having sentimental tendencies (oil and water, my friend). The primary comment I hear from my wife when a box comes from [email protected] is: "If something bad happens to you, I'm going to be the one responsible for selling those stacks of legos."
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ Does she say that with a smile or a frown?
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I've been watching MMV for a week or two. It was at like 100 almost two weeks ago and then I noticed they got another shipment in. Stock has been going down about 10-15 a day. My Lego stores still had a bunch in stock. I actually went to buy one a week ago and the manager said they had a slightly damaged Kings castle so I bought that instead.

    Is anyone predicting how fast HP will sell out now that its being discontinued? Amazon restocked the big Hogwarts a few weeks ago with less than 50 I think and they went really fast. I still have to get a Hogwarts to get for me and my friend also wants one for his wife. I will get Diagon Alley as well, but I think there is an abundance of those right now.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^ Does she say that with a smile or a frown?
    I think she's serious (at least she's not smiling when she says it). She is not very computer literate, and doesn't know the first thing about eBay or Amazon. My teenage child would definitely have to get involved.

    Question: Is the MMV EOL'd? There's been discussion here, but I haven't seen anything definite.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited January 2012
    From other sources MMV will EOL December of this year, provided stocks last that long.

    Here is the list which has been correct so far so believe what you will:

    10193 medieval market village december 2012
    10197 fire brigade december 2012
    10216 winter village bakery december 2012

    10219 maersk train december 2013
    10211 grand emporium december 2013
    10214 tower bridge december 2013 (extended due to popularity)
    10217 diagon alley december 2013
    10218 pet shop december 2013
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ What were the items from this list which preceeded these items? IF and EN?
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    huws report from the toy fair thing said HP ends mid 2012
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    EN and toy shop were on the list to EOL 2011...IF was not though (maybe just an oversight)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Wow...Dec 2012 for those sets? I'm not going to start sweating them until at least August then.

    We will have a local B&M store by April, so at least I will have a place to get some of the good deals described in this blog.
  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP CanadaMember Posts: 1,918
    I wouldn't count on the FB lasting until Dec. It will get discontinued soon after the town hall is released. I read somewhere that LEGO decided to extend the production of the Tower Bridge because of the summer Olympics. I think it was pretty smart of TLG to do that.
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    I would assume the 99.99 spaceship adventure should be close to being out of here.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I would assume the 99.99 spaceship adventure should be close to being out of here.
    I agree. I thought it was gone last year, but it came back. When it does actually EOL, it should double or triple in price within 1-2 years. My guess is that it will EOL with the next BF sale.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    ^^ Farmer John these are supposedly the dates these items will no longer be available to buy from Lego at the latest. If there is not enough stock to last until these dates then obviously these will be cut short. If there is plenty of stock then you know what will be on sale those years (black Friday again in the USA). Fire Brigade is the least popular modular by far so I would expect it to get discounted this November / December. MMV may not last the entire way tho. Grand Emporium is designed for multiple copies to be built together ala Cafe Corner...this is the modular that will be in truly massive demand once it is gone.
  • absolut3absolut3 Member Posts: 83
    I received my flagships from Lego and it looks like one of them had a new seal applied over an older seal that had been cut open. Should I be worried that something might be missing? Should I call Lego about this? I wanted to keep this sealed to sell later.
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    ^ Yes, call Lego. If theyve passed you an opened return, you're entitled to know about it, but you thought you were getting new and sealed.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    @doriansdad How do you know Fire Brigade isn't popluar? I thought it was very popular. I agree that Grand Emporium may be in high demand when its gone. Everyone talks about FB, but GE never gets enough credit and I would say it may even be cooler than FB.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    @Dougat I mentioned "least" popular. I know because the reviews/ratings I have seen from those in the know are so so at best, and I also know what sells out first when TRU has a sale online. We had a fake scare when folks assumed GE was on its way out and you can see what happened to stock and prices then. FB will sit on ebay at close to RRP for many moons to come....TLG having to discount these to get rid of them will confirm my anecdotal evidence. GE on the other hand....
  • dk1007dk1007 Member Posts: 49
    I have to disagree with Doriansdad regarding FB. Cafe Corner was sitting on Walmart shelf for $120 and no one wants it. Look at it now. I think due to the production issue with FB, it will be even hotter to find good set, means higher prices.
  • popnfreshpopnfresh Member Posts: 9
    Lego Stores couldnt GIVE away Market Street, it was literally the same 4 dented boxes at my lego store for months, and look at it now.


    also in regards to the double seal, lego stores here slice open returns and glance at the contents for a few seconds, and then reseal with a sticker them and right back on the shelf they go, I imagine the factory does the same thing.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    @dk1007...you must remember there was no line of collectible modulars back then. We had one fan designed Factory set in Market Street and the Creator line Cafe Corner. Demand for both of these sets only shot up once collectors stepped in after Green Grocer was produced and the ongoing line of modulars was confirmed. Prices only skyrocketed once TLG stopped producing the rare pieces. There are no rare pieces in FB, it is not meant to be combined with other FB's to producer a bigger station, and alot of AFOLS think it is the weakest set. Personally I would not want to get caught holding large stocks of FBs as I just don't see where the huge demand is going to come from to clear supplies....but to each his (or her) own.
  • popnfreshpopnfresh Member Posts: 9
    Unless of course you stockpiled when TRU had bogoho and amazon was just selling it straight out for 100 bux, which has happened with FB, then I wouldn't mind having a stockpile.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    The thing is... at least in my opinion... Fire Brigade is completely out of place right now. But it's also the set I like best (I don't have Market Street... but pictures seem unimpressive to me). Once Town Hall comes out... and especially if they do a police station in the future... Fire Brigade will be a very nice set to have. It's just that it doesn't fit the theme of the street right now and looks out of place amidst a sea of shops.
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    edited January 2012
    ^- it only looks out of place until Mr Jones over at the GG forgets to close the fireplace before he goes to bed and a log falls out...then of course it's welcomed by all.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    True enough. Makes me want to do an MOC of the Green Grocer all ablaze and such.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2012
    If anyone sees FBs for $100, please post it on this site; I will gladly purchase 3-5 of them. Personally, I like the FB set, but I like the GE best of the modulars out right now. I also like the upcoming TH, but I am not desperate and will wait until I can get it below RRP (perhaps the next BF sale with 10% off plus free shipping).
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    FB might seem out of place, but it belongs on such an urban street...

    Besides, once it is gone and Town Hall is out for a year then in 2013 when Police HQ comes out, FB will suddenly be in huge demand and anyone smart enough to hold on to them will look really smart!!!

    That is my plan anyway... :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I have one FB I purchased for $115 from Amazon around Christmas 2010. Hopefully I have a chance to get a couple more on sale before they're gone.
Sign In or Register to comment.

Shopping at LEGO.com or Amazon?

Please use our links: LEGO.com Amazon

Recent discussions Categories Privacy Policy Brickset.com

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Brickset.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, the Amazon.com.ca, Inc. Associates Program and the Amazon EU Associates Programme, which are affiliate advertising programs designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.

As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.