Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Billybrown

Legofanscott said:

TheOneVeyronian said:

^ I agree, I reckon not many of those bought will actually even get opened. I may well have bought one on the day of release, if only I had the money then (slightly annoyed but thinking positive face) :-)
Even though I'm not into large Technic sets.

Wonder if the ones being sold on ebay for nearly double rrp atm are being bought by collectors to be opened or resellers and speculators ???

I suspect re-sellers. As checking ebay out (in the uk) showed the same buyer getting all 3 from one seller, and cleared another seller out of 2 for around the £250 mark.

I can see this hitting £500 (in the uk) by Christmas at this rate, so they will have done well even at £250.

FollowsClosely

JamesJT said:

...
I got 7, all perfect boxes and all bought on the same VIP account. Anybody beat that?

That was a dumb move.

doriansdad

I don't know what is dumber buying all 7 on the same account or bragging about it online with his name as his handle. Kids these days lol.

JamesJT

^because having 7 is dumb or using the same VIP account is dumb or even because telling you guys what I got will most likely lead to a little (understandable) abuse?

Tevans333

JamesJT said:

^because having 7 is dumb or using the same VIP account is dumb or even because telling you guys what I got will most likely lead to a little (understandable) abuse?

TLG has banned resellers from purchasing from them in the past. By using your VIP account they can track what you've purchased from them and possibly ban you from future purchases. The VIP points are always worth it in a case like this.

madforLEGO

Yeah, trying to circumvent TLG policies is not a good idea anymore (same with Amazon.com).. While you may or may not get away with this instance they can ban you from buying from online again.
Seeing as there are limited and they were limited to 2 per person I can see LEGO coming after anyone that sat there and ordered two and two and two with the VIP card.
Also I have been told that the LEGO stores have been told to stop selling to those that are known resellers as well, and if they ignore that directive then the employee could get into trouble.

roxio

Being able to buy 7 from the same account highlights TLG haven't got the systems in place to keep customers within the limits. How hard can it be to have a website block a buyer from going over the advertised limit ?

JamesJT

^I figured they would just cancel my order but they didn't. They were perfectly happy to take my money. And if they don't like people stockpiling sets they can come by my house and have some of these FB's back.

gmpirate

The website just says two per "order". But obviously Lego has shown they will simply ignore what is stated, or not stated, and take an action regardless.

gmpirate

@JamesJT Curious, did you buy more than two "online"? And if so, did they ship?

madforLEGO

I think people are once again subscribing to the ideology of 'If I can do it, it must be OK".
I will just say this, if LEGO thinks you are a reseller and then they can ban you. They may not cancel the order, but they can review your account and cancel it if they feel you are abusing their system.
This is not a theory, they have cancelled other accounts for forum members in the recent past, same with those on Amazon.com

Also,
I'm sure those in Europe who missed out on getting one because of people doing multiple orders, those who use friends and family, or found a LEGO store that did not enforce limits, to buy additional sets are relieved to know that this is really only 2 per order, and not 2 period. My guess (and it is just my opinion) is that LEGO means 2 at all, in order to ensure people can get the set, but again opinions will vary, which is why LEGO must say 2 period. I think they do not because I'm sure there are those that have the need for three.. maybe super rich and want one for each kid, I'm sure it happens, but again people are abusing LEGOs good will then.

I'd also like to think that people should now know that making such statements about how so and so got 6 and so and so got 7 just is going to whip up the forum to more vitriol about resellers, so I'm not sure why they keep making those comments, other than to instigate arguments in the threads.

CoraHarrison

JamesJT said:

^because having 7 is dumb or using the same VIP account is dumb or even because telling you guys what I got will most likely lead to a little (understandable) abuse?

Just been to buy 2 and I was the one telling the staff it was a limit to 2 per person... so theoretically I could have purchased there entire stock...

JamesJT

Anybody buying 2 is probably intending to resell 1, TLG don't appear to have a problem with that. The limit should have been 1 per customer and If they had kept this set out of lego stores this could have been enforced.

madforLEGO

Yeah, LEGO needs to make it clearer. If it really is only 2 per then it should be that way across the board and no exceptions store, or online. But I doubt they will do that, but at the same time they have banned people from online for what they deemed was a reseller so I guess we will see come the end of the year.. I'm guessing that people are probably hoping they do not get banned from LEGO.com before their EOL sales.

CCC

They could still do it in store, just make sure it is a VIP only model and one per VIP account.

CoraHarrison

CCC said:

They could still do it in store, just make sure it is a VIP only model and one per VIP account.

But if the stores are battling for sales, and wanting to achieve good sales vs other Lego stores then I suppose those in retail would understand why they turn a blind-eye...

Some, including me would argue it's rather wrong. But true.

Cora :)

madforLEGO

I'm not sure of other LEGO stores in other states here in the US but most of the stores are far enough away from where I am that I go to one and one alone. I guess they could be fighting for business, but I think LEGO does try to ensure that there are not many stores on top of one another.

ColoradoBricks

My store had a limit of 1 on #41999, on the BTTF and on the B-Wing last May. It is something I do not mind at all. Also they allow the costumer to come back for a 2nd set usually 2 days later.

tom4086

If everyone is simply buying these to resell, surely ebay will be flooded with them....

Brickarmor

gmpirate said:

The website just says two per "order". But obviously Lego has shown they will simply ignore what is stated, or not stated, and take an action regardless.

Anecdotally, I had a buyer in Singapore who wanted a huge quantity of the figs from the Stagecoach. I called [email protected] and asked about the limitations and (after being put on hold) was told I could make as many orders as I wanted at 5 each and as long as they had them they would ship them. It would seem that if they were intent on enforcing the per household as opposed to per order limit they would make it happen, and they may yet.

CoraHarrison

tom4086 said:

If everyone is simply buying these to resell, surely ebay will be flooded with them....

Exactly which dilutes the market in which case you find that you can't sell them which is what I would expect to happen with such sets as MF however... with this being limited edition I don't know...

Just playing around with idea's / suggestions as I'm pretty new to this thread.

Cora :)

madforLEGO

I think that even though Im sure people are buying to sell, that it still is a limited edition, and by all accounts, will not be done again, which means it will likely go for something at some point, but I think right now you have to weed through all the resellers getting more than 2 on top of it all.
So I'm guessing that the demand may not skyrocket this year, but next year.

doriansdad

tom4086 said:

If everyone is simply buying these to resell, surely ebay will be flooded with them....

Given the price and restrictions resellers did well to grab 5 or 6 rather than the usual 50 or 60. Big price spike coming for this set after the noobs sell them all for next to nothing.

Dad

Just been very lucky and got 2 after a 50 mile round trip. I know where there is still 1 available on a shelf first thing in the morning so long as it didn't sell in the last 15 minutes of trading tonight!!!!

prevere

If Lego wanted to sell them out faster, they should have made a 4x4 Minecraft Creeper in chrome gold driving the Crawler.

dougts

Brickarmor said:

gmpirate said:

The website just says two per "order". But obviously Lego has shown they will simply ignore what is stated, or not stated, and take an action regardless.

Anecdotally, I had a buyer in Singapore who wanted a huge quantity of the figs from the Stagecoach. I called [email protected] and asked about the limitations and (after being put on hold) was told I could make as many orders as I wanted at 5 each and as long as they had them they would ship them. It would seem that if they were intent on enforcing the per household as opposed to per order limit they would make it happen, and they may yet.

I think it is safe to say, and all anecdotal evidence points to this, that LEGO is deciding to selectively enforce the multi-order quantity limits. They won't be afraid to smack some people down with the ban stick when they want to, or when a high-profile incident occurs, but they aren't actively looking for them in their system, and on run-of-the-mill production sets like Stagecoach, they will gleefully sell as many of them as people want to buy. Exclusive items and limited run items are probably where they actually care.

CCC

tom4086 said:

If everyone is simply buying these to resell, surely ebay will be flooded with them....

Not everyone will be in for the quick flip. Some will wait a little longer, especially the way the prices are going.

I can't see them going for £500 myself, but that is simply because I wouldn't pay that for a toy car and I'm not swayed by limited edition status.

Pitfall69

I can't even find it on the US [email protected] website. It is gone...vanished.

madforLEGO

^--Yeah, no trace... Wonder if it is truly sold out, or LEGO's site had another glitch.

Billybrown

madforLEGO said:

^--Yeah, no trace... Wonder if it is truly sold out, or LEGO's site had another glitch.

Maybe there doing a stock check? They have been doing cancellations in the UK now that the allocation is sold out. So they might be trying to avoid the same happening in the US?

Pitfall69

I ordered 1 around 9:30AM this morning. I have a buddy that ordered 2 about 20 minutes later. I still haven't gotten an email confirmation and my order hasn't even been processed yet according to my order history, so I guess I'm SOL.

JamesJT

CCC said:

tom4086 said:

If everyone is simply buying these to resell, surely ebay will be flooded with them....

Not everyone will be in for the quick flip. Some will wait a little longer, especially the way the prices are going.

I can't see them going for £500 myself, but that is simply because I wouldn't pay that for a toy car and I'm not swayed by limited edition status.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Lego-Technic-41999-4x4-Crawler-Limited-Edition-NEW-and-SEALED-/251317019954?pt=UK_Construction_Toys_Kits&hash=item3a83a96532

Somebody flipped early and somebody else paid £400+ earlier today!

Renny

I did turn one in for exchange at my local store, so I know there is one out there :)

samiam391

JamesJT said:

CCC said:

tom4086 said:

If everyone is simply buying these to resell, surely ebay will be flooded with them....

Not everyone will be in for the quick flip. Some will wait a little longer, especially the way the prices are going.

I can't see them going for £500 myself, but that is simply because I wouldn't pay that for a toy car and I'm not swayed by limited edition status.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Lego-Technic-41999-4x4-Crawler-Limited-Edition-NEW-and-SEALED-/251317019954?pt=UK_Construction_Toys_Kits&hash=item3a83a96532

Somebody paid £400+ earlier today!

I realize that it's easy to get caught up in the rush of an item that has just been discontinued, but don't. Just because an item sold for 400 pounds today, doesn't mean that prices will only increase from there and trend upward to who knows what amount. Nor does it mean prices will even stay close to hovering around that price.

I won't pretend to know much about sets (because I don't), but I do have some knowledge about items that are limited edition. #41999 is going through the ever so common "panic phase". We saw it with the alleged Jabba's Palace EOL and we saw it with Minecraft.

There's a group of people that don't do the rational thing, and that thing is to wait. As soon as it hits eBay, they snap it up. Whether that's for re-sale later on, or to buy for pleasure. They snap it up with the re-seller thinking that in a few weeks time they'll be none on eBay and they'll be raking in profits. Or they buy it fast on eBay with the thought that they snagged it cheap before the price explosion.

Prices will trend down (still above retail), and then eventually they'll trend up (way above retail). They'll be a flood of them on eBay from the "noobs", and re-sellers and collectors alike will buy them all up. But my expectation is they won't buy them all up. Then you'll have the "noob" items still sitting on eBay, while the patient ones continue to wisely wait.

This is a warning that is more important for buyers, but is still semi important for sellers- Do not get caught up in the euphoria known as limited edition. Look to much into prices online right now and you'll start to panic as the market fluctuates in the upcoming weeks. Be patient, temper expectations, remain calm... and you'll win big.

JamesJT

^completely agree but I can't help wondering if the "noob" turning a £200 profit in just a few days are actually the sensible ones. Especially, as you suggest, the market should soften soon as more boxes are delivered and the hype subsides.

Pitfall69

Well, I'm not caught up in the euphoria. I only bought one, just to say I have one. I don't know what I am going to do with it because I am not fond of Technic.

Trenth

I don't mind a bit of euphoria. haha All the signs point to this set being a winner. Most of us are resellers on this thread so, I would say if you got a few sets congrats and enjoy the profits. I really feel like #41999 will hit $500 at christmas, so you bet I am pumped about it.

FollowsClosely

Doubling your money in 6 months is great. Too bad I have only 4.

Pitfall69

Alright rubbernecks. Save all that bragging for the "brag thread" ;)

JamesJT

Pitfall69 said:

Well, I'm not caught up in the euphoria. I only bought one, just to say I have one. I don't know what I am going to do with it because I am not fond of Technic.

You could rebuild it in pink and sit it next to your HH.

gmpirate

^ Lol

prevere

^I have yet to ever find a Technic part in pink, dark pink, trans-pink, or bright pink.

hoyatables

^^^^I almost bought one as well because of all the hype -- except I also don't care for Technic or 4x4 Crawlers and I realized that I just don't have the patience or time to resell. (Not sure what I will do with the two #10212 that I bought last year!)

JamesJT

prevere said:

^I have yet to ever find a Technic part in pink, dark pink, trans-pink, or bright pink.

That is a shame, I would quite like to see a pink IS too

samiam391

JamesJT said:

^completely agree but I can't help wondering if the "noob" turning a £200 profit in just a few days are actually the sensible ones. Especially, as you suggest, the market should soften soon as more boxes are delivered and the hype subsides.

Actually, the ones selling immediately I wouldn't classify as noobs. Some know, that on limited edition items, the time to sell is immediately or waiting until Christmas. The "panic time", like I said previously, is mostly a message to buyers as opposed to sellers. It applies, in an almost opposite sense, to both.

The noob sellers, would be more the ones buying it, and then holding onto it for what they think is a long term investment... aka flipping it in 1-2 months. They see the prices, 400 pounds, that it is going for now and think it has nowhere to but up. Thus they hold onto it, missing hte first oppurtunity to flip for high profits. Then they see prices fall, panic, and don't get as much as they could have.

Speaking of pink, we've seen a black 10179... why not a pink one? Leia Solo's Falcon.

Pitfall69

Again, I've fallen prey to the jokes. This avatar has been nothing but trouble.

So, what is the consensus here; flip the Crawler or hold onto it?

Trenth

I am going to have to disagree with samiam391. I do not think we will see a dip in prices on this set. I could though see a dramatic slow down in the climb in the next week. Once Christmas hits we will see another spike, and then a steady climb after that. I have three sets. I will probably sell one at Christmas, hold on to one to see how high the ceiling is price wise, and torment myself about keeping the third. Oh why didn't I just stay a collector? ha

LegoFanTexas

.

Pitfall69 said:

Again, I've fallen prey to the jokes. This avatar has been nothing but trouble.

Mesa thinks the jokes are not so bad...

At least they don't require a box...

doriansdad

Trenth said:

I am going to have to disagree with samiam391. I do not think we will see a dip in prices on this set. I could though see a dramatic slow down in the climb in the next week. Once Christmas hits we will see another spike, and then a steady climb after that. I have three sets. I will probably sell one at Christmas, hold on to one to see how high the ceiling is price wise, and torment myself about keeping the third. Oh why didn't I just stay a collector? ha

Ya he is completely wrong on this one. LFT may wanna the over on $600....by this xmas!

Legofanscott

I believe that this set will level out at around the 250-300 mark long term

Will be interesting to see how well it does when christmas approaches for sure :)