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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Joust and Helm's Deep are my "what am I waiting for to buy this set?" sets.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    HH will triple if it retires this year. If it is around for 3 more years, then no, it won't in a reasonable amount of time.

    Joust was on discount last BF, I picked up a stack from my LEGO store for 40% off (set was 20% off which stacked with the 20% off scratcher), but anyone could have gotten 30% off which is a good deal on that set.

    Unless it is still here in two years of course. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    mathew said:

    A set to keep an eye out on is Kingdoms Joust. Not so much for resale itself, but in comparison to the Haunted House. The rest of the Kingdoms line has been discontinued for over a year now, but Joust is still available. This tells me that the Haunted House will be similar. I would think that HH is a better seller than Joust as well. But who really knows.

    HH is probably a better seller partly because it is newer. But I tend to agree with the thought in general, Joust doesn't feel like it ever was a great seller, just a steady seller.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited August 2013
    GE is an interesting one.. many people have complained it is too band for a mod, but I have a suspicion that people will still want one for a collection

    Joust set has been out for about 2 years now I think, it is on schedule if you will, since the new Castle sets are out I can see it sticking around, but again HH is a MF theme, so I would be surprised by it staying out long after MF is gone off the shelves.. and seeing how the local LEGO store is trying to discount them to get them out, my guess is it is soon
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    Actually just thinking about it, there is one set that I think will be one that will surprise many people and that is Arkham Asylum. Yeah it is Batman related, and much of that is being hoarded BUT it is a rather pricey set, and again one that has not been on sale as much. I have only seen it one sale once (on Amazon) and that may have been a fluke.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    AA will (or shouldn't) not surprise anyone.

    Too early to stock up on, but rest assured, I plan to have a bunch of them before it retires.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    HH is a MF theme, so I would be surprised by it staying out long after MF is gone off the shelves.. and seeing how the local LEGO store is trying to discount them to get them out, my guess is it is soon

    I'm confused. I know that the Lego stores are discounting the MF line, but I thought that the Haunted House was excluded from the discounts. How much is HH being discounted for then?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ its not
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    cloaked7 said:

    Lobot said:

    ...I love the VW set and think that it will do nicely EOL, it has a high part count and will appeal to *a lot* of buyers.

    You should have added the following disclaimer - 'a lot' does not include those to at one time worked in the rental car industry and had to get late arriving customers to the airport in time using a VW Camper.

    he he (sorry, just had to post this) I'm now thinking that @Pitfall69 has flashbacks when he hears the pffffttttt sound of that 40 HP air cooled motor, on the rare occasion that someone is driving an old VW van or beetle. :-) Hopefully he doesn't live close to a hwy. :-)

    I am an anomaly probably. I'm sure there are people that have fond memories of the VW van, especially the CMF from Series 8 ;) With that said, only people that aren't children will probably buy this Lego set. I don't see a 10 year old foaming at the mouth to own this set.

    As far as the Modulars are concerned; I haven't built the GE because of my time, but I too have heard it was boring. Regardless of what any Modular will do in the aftermarket, they contain great parts for MOC's. There is no law that tells you that you have to build what's in the box. (No jokes @LegoFanTexas ;) )

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    In other words, I can't see the Haunted House being discontinued this year. I think it will follow a similar life of other exclusive sets and stick around for two years at least.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited August 2013
    mathew said:

    HH is a MF theme, so I would be surprised by it staying out long after MF is gone off the shelves.. and seeing how the local LEGO store is trying to discount them to get them out, my guess is it is soon

    I'm confused. I know that the Lego stores are discounting the MF line, but I thought that the Haunted House was excluded from the discounts. How much is HH being discounted for then?
    Sorry, should have been clearer, the LEGO store by me is selling most MF sets at a 20% discount right now, and moved to the back of the store where they normally put the stuff they are trying to get rid of (excluding the HH).
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Monster Fighters is on it's way out.. It's on clearance everywhere. The castle will be a good one to stock up on.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Yeah, right now #9468 Vampyre Castle is on sale for 13% off. Depending on what state you live in, it is a better deal than most stores because of sales tax.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited August 2013
    It's easy enough to remove the Monster Fighter's graphic from the HH, but a) I don't see that as being all that necessary and b) what theme would it go under? Creator? And yeah, Arkham falls into the same category - huge box, expensive, rarely discounted, fantastic etc. Both will do well in the aftermarket, though I give the Haunted House the edge, and that's against a licensed theme too, imagine that. One of the only things that could top the Haunted House is the inevitable Santa's Workshop.

    Of course, I still think the Horizon Express is the current diamond resale set. It's relatively cheaper than those above sets, goes on sale periodically, is a good build, is a train and above all, is in a nice, compact box. If you can get this set for $100, do it.

    And since they've been mentioned, the SC & VW Bus are also great sets. I see them easily fetching $200+ after a year or so EOL.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited August 2013
    Amazon.com US has the #9467 MF Ghost Train for 56.95 and change right now, not as good as 40% off at a target (if you can find it) but not bad.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Pitfall69 said:

    Yeah, right now #9468 Vampyre Castle is on sale for 13% off. Depending on what state you live in, it is a better deal than most stores because of sales tax.

    Edit: Amazon US.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    Pitfall69 said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    Yeah, right now #9468 Vampyre Castle is on sale for 13% off. Depending on what state you live in, it is a better deal than most stores because of sales tax.

    Edit: Amazon US.

    Yeah I saw the castle but I think it was on sale at some point for 20-22% off I think via Amazon US, so Im keeping an eye on that one now, and hoping it drops
    Pitfall69
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    I'm shocking myself with this comment, but I think the new Chima "base" sets look pretty good. These could give Chima a pulse, and improve the long-term outlook.

  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    What will be worth more the R2-D2 or the new Millennium Falcon?

    I think the R2-D2 but just wanted other peoples opinion. :-)
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    R2
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242

    R2

    How much you thinking?

    I'm tempted to buy 3 in the 3 for 2 at Argos... It gives me an excuse to have one... Mine being the 'free' one of course ;)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    prevere said:

    I'm shocking myself with this comment, but I think the new Chima "base" sets look pretty good. These could give Chima a pulse, and improve the long-term outlook.

    The only thing that is going to help Chima is a full cartoon series. Give it a good one like Ninjago received and it will take off.

    Cartoons sell toys, nothing new there. :)

    I recently rewatched a few of the 1980's Transformers cartoons. Terrible, completely and totally terrible, almost destroyed my wonderful childhood memories at how bad they really are. And every episode featured a new Transformer, to sell of course.

    Really bad 22 minute product placement commercials. :) Ninjago (and everything else modern) does the same thing mostly, but at least with somewhat better quality.

    What I really like are the Disney Junior cartoons. Handy Manny for example, while it is true they sell the "tools" and stuffed Handy Manny, it isn't about new toys every episode, it is about life lessons and doing the right thing by people.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    What will be worth more the R2-D2 or the new Millennium Falcon?

    I think the R2-D2 but just wanted other peoples opinion. :-)

    Worth more? R2-D2

    Greater RRP % gain? MF
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited August 2013

    What will be worth more the R2-D2 or the new Millennium Falcon?

    I think the R2-D2 but just wanted other peoples opinion. :-)

    It really depends on How you mean 'worth more'
    Just remember EVERYONE buys SW LEGO, So when you buy and are thinking about buying to sell later, think of that as well.
    I would say that there will be less people likely to buy the R2 than the Falcon.
    In this it may mean you would get a better return on the R2.
    Plus, while the Falcon is always a popular set, they tend to remake it an awful lot, and when that it done the previous model tend to have less demand (UCS Falcon being an exception). Not so much for the R2 (The only other one was the Robotics one from some years ago I think).
    However you also have to take note that the MF is a minifig set, whereas the R2 is just a sculpture basically.
    I would still say that more than likely another Falcon will be released eventually when this one EOLs, and many people will probably buy the current set(if they have not already) to sell later.

    Now if you are going to buy 10-20 sets then I'm guessing the Falcon may be the better option, and hope they do not remake it right away, but if you are looking for a one off purchase to hold onto then I would lean more to the R2, or shuck both and buy a DS...lol
    Of course then you can take into account the size of the boxes an how much space it takes up, etc etc.. (asleep yet?)
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242

    What will be worth more the R2-D2 or the new Millennium Falcon?

    I think the R2-D2 but just wanted other peoples opinion. :-)

    It really depends on How you mean 'worth more'
    Just remember EVERYONE buys SW LEGO, So when you buy and are thinking about buying to sell later, think of that as well.
    I would say that there will be less people likely to buy the R2 than the Falcon.
    In this it may mean you would get a better return on the R2.
    Plus, while the Falcon is always a popular set, they tend to remake it an awful lot, and when that it done the previous model tend to have less demand (UCS Falcon being an exception). Not so much for the R2 (The only other one was the Robotics one from some years ago I think).
    However you also have to take note that the MF is a minifig set, whereas the R2 is just a sculpture basically.
    I would still say that more than likely another Falcon will be released eventually when this one EOLs, and many people will probably buy the current set(if they have not already) to sell later.

    Now if you are going to buy 10-20 sets then I'm guessing the Falcon may be the better option, and hope they do not remake it right away, but if you are looking for a one off purchase to hold onto then I would lean more to the R2, or shuck both and buy a DS...lol
    Of course then you can take into account the size of the boxes an how much space it takes up, etc etc.. (asleep yet?)
    Haha, who knew it would all become so complex...

    Thanks for your insight.

    Cora :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    While it is true that the MF will get remade again at some point, there is likely to be a 2-3 year gap between the retirement of the current one and the release of a new one.

    It is during that time that the profits are to be made.

    R2 will never be done again (or very unlikely), but as said, it isn't a play set, it is a display set.

    Both will do well, but keep in mind that MF has been discounted and clearanced out many times, R2, much less so (if ever).

    So R2 is a safer bet at RRP, I wouldn't touch MF at RRP.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Well, I don't know exactly when #4504 was retired, but I think there was a longer gap than 2-3 years between #4504's retirement and the current Millennium Falcons release.

    I generally don't hang on to sets for resale longer than 3 years after their retirement, so all my #7965's will be gone before the next one comes out.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    ^-Ahh, you are correct sir. I did not realize the gap, but again I think a lot of people will be stocking up on the current falcon, and if other recent sets are an indicator Im not sure how these will do once discontinued.. guess we will not know until they run out.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^I heard the exact same story about the AT-AT #8129.
  • HarryPotterLoverHarryPotterLover Member Posts: 238
    Arkham Asylum I feel like nobody ever talks about. it has very good aftermarket potential- weirdly I found some at Toys R US????
  • wilburwilbur Member Posts: 49
    edited August 2013
    Were they $220 bucks?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The current Falcon will be at $200 6 months post EOL. But if you pay RRP of $140, after fees, it is a waste of time. Get it for $100 and it is a bargain. assuming that it goes this year, it could be around for 2 more years for all we know.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Arkham Asylum I feel like nobody ever talks about. it has very good aftermarket potential- weirdly I found some at Toys R US????

    Of course it does, but it also just came out. Don't be shocked to find it for sale Christmas 2015. :)
    vitreolum
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,259
    edited August 2013
    Supposing the M Falcon is in the upcoming Ep. 7, and the toymakers writers for that film decide that Han has modded or improved upon his ship some and thereby tweaking the design to upgrade it from its hunk-o-junk status. That might raise the value of the current model considerably among AFoLs who are attached to all things OT.
    FollowsClosely
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    No doubt the Falcon will return in the sequels. And it will shoot lens flares out of its hyperdrive.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    ^And have flickfire missiles (facepalm).
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839

    jasor said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    jasor said:

    ^The custom Bith heads out there are impressive, but oh to have Lego versions...

    All you have to do is pop off the Star Wars action figure heads and I believe they can pop right on the stud.

    *mind.....blown.
    Mind blown? How do you think people are eBay are selling 'custom' SW figures?
    I was referring to the resin molded customs vs the action fig head customs....thus, mind blown, yes.
  • beebee Member Posts: 33

    Supposing the M Falcon is in the upcoming Ep. 7, and the toymakers writers for that film decide that Han has modded or improved upon his ship some and thereby tweaking the design to upgrade it from its hunk-o-junk status. That might raise the value of the current model considerably among AFoLs who are attached to all things OT.

    Is it supposed to get upgraded in episode 7? I like this analysis if what you say really does happen
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Nobody knows for sure. This is a speculation thread. He is speculating ;)
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited August 2013
    #41999 are now selling fast at £240 (+ delivery) on ebay UK. Cheapest now is £300!
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited August 2013
    I think most resellers were hampered by the limit of 2 on 41999 which really surprises me. This has allowed it to remain in stock so I am surprised again that folks are paying a premium when you can still get it at RRP from [email protected] (if you are willing to wait a week or so that is). Once the set is sold out at [email protected] prices may get a little crazy as most of the stock is going to fans and not resellers, especially if the set was not damaged in shipping.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Just ordered a 41999. Says expected ship date August 19th.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Got mine today, luckily boxes were perfect as there was no polybag.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    edited August 2013
    Some additional newbies are also "out of stock" right out of the gate. #75021 Gunship and #75019 AT-TE (from [email protected] for reference). Interesting.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Weird that the Gunship is out of stock.. I've seen those all over town.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    ^ Not really surprising, they were some of the most sought after EOL sets in the past few years.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    I need some advice. Should I pick up a couple of #4440 City Police Forest Station for $40? I don't see this set being a shining star, but at this price do you guys think I'll have a hard time making a decent profit?
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    I am hesitant because Amazon has them for around $58, and to make it worthwhile for me I would need to sell it for the full $80. Selling at $60 would net me hardly any profit.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I picked a few up at $39.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    No, I would not pick up the Forest Station. I know its easy to become enticed by a great discount but a great discount does not necessarily make a great investment. Make a list of what you think are the most desirable sets to purchase "right now". See how far down that list you have the Forest Station.

    Unless you have unlimited funds and storage, I would think you could come up with better alternatives.
    Pitfall69cloaked7
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