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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 971
    Any thoughts on 6864 'The Batmobile and the Two-Face Chase'?

    They're currently on clearance at 30% off, and I grabbed one today as part of a 3 for 2 deal.... It's not a theme I have any experience of, but it looks quite a nice set, especially at that price :-)



  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    A long time ago, on a thread page far, far away...

    THE DOODAD WARS

    Episode 4: A New Mope
    y2josh
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    The truth is that many of us crave debate. Men crave debate (and conflict as well) as much as women crave drama.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    ^You could go and have your sexist debate somewhere else and let us get on with discussing the future value of retired lego sets.
    MathBuilder
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Lobot said:

    Any thoughts on 6864 'The Batmobile and the Two-Face Chase'?

    They're currently on clearance at 30% off, and I grabbed one today as part of a 3 for 2 deal.... It's not a theme I have any experience of, but it looks quite a nice set, especially at that price :-)

    I'm not a DC guy myself, but I did pick a few up when Wal-Mart had them for ~$33. It has two potential problems, so far as I can tell.

    First, the Two-Face half of the set is pretty awful and a lot of people haven't been shy about saying as much. I'm not positive how drastic an impact this will have, as people still seem to want the Two-Face figure, but I think it would be less of a stumbling block if the whole set were desirable.

    Second, and perhaps more importantly, there's a new 'Batmobile' set coming out. While I personally think the new one looks like trash, I've also seen many people say that it's better. If the popular sentiment proves to be that the new one is preferable, that's going to keep costs lower on the aftermarket.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited August 2013
    JamesJT said:

    ^You could go and have your sexist debate somewhere else and let us get on with discussing the future value of retired lego sets.

    Ha. As a married man I have had my wife call me a drama queen a time or two.

    But alas you miss the point. Of course I'm the only one who finds it a bit strange that a forum devoted to a children's toy requires you to be an adult of age to be a member of.

    pillpodcloaked7
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    Trenth said:

    Errr...we need a new topic..... sleeper picks anyone? Mine is the Sopwith or we could always just guess who the new Doctor will be.

    I think the Sopwith Camel may be a sleeper, but it depends on if LEGO needs to cut them 50% to sell off anything they want to get rid of.
    If they do not then yeah it should go up a bit. I'm just not sure if there are enough airplane enthusiasts to drive it up dramatically and then it becomes a 'marathoner' (That is it will take 3-5 years before you see it rise in price dramatically)
    I think the real riser will be the Haunted House. I know people know about it and like it, but I have a sense that people are waiting for a sale that just is not going to happen, it is too good of a set.

    I would also say that 41999 should be ridiculous after Christmas (or maybe before Christmas) if they really are limited to 20K and that is it.

    But all in all I see prices rising for a lot of new sets once EOL'd just because many retailers, including LEGO, are taking steps to reduce the number of people trying to simply buy to resell and if more places follow suit and do not put sets on sale or raise their RRP to eliminate value in BOGOs and such, and sites crack down on people finding other ways to buy past a limit, then I think there will be more demand and less supply after a set is EOL IMO.
    Lobot said:

    Any thoughts on 6864 'The Batmobile and the Two-Face Chase'?

    They're currently on clearance at 30% off, and I grabbed one today as part of a 3 for 2 deal.... It's not a theme I have any experience of, but it looks quite a nice set, especially at that price :-)

    As for Batman and Marvel sets.
    I think it is a waste of time to be honest.. again more 'Marathoner' sets, because I think people are buying up there during the BOGOs when you could still get a good deal, Amazon when they have sales on these sets, and other outlets.. I just see too many people hoarding these.
    I would say if you want one to build and one to maybe hold on to then sure, but be prepared to hold onto it for a while.

  • incredulousincredulous Member Posts: 18

    Societal isn't really a word that is used in modern English. And the last 50 or so posts make me wish there was an ignore feature. Oy.

    If you google 'societal' you'll find plenty of examples in modern english, and my use of it to describe impact on society is not only correct, but it's more precise than using 'social'.

    Even if I had used a word improperly, if that's your focus after the last 50 posts, you really aren't in need of an ignore feature because you're already effectively operating in a cloud of ignorance.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I agree. The new Marvel and DC sets will not come close to performing like the old Batman sets which nobody wanted even when they were available at a steep discount. Nowdays noob resellers stockpile anything with a discount sticker so the game has changed alot.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    edited August 2013
    Sorry, but ENOUGH.
    If you really want a 'I got the last word though' thread then go create one. Most of us have gotten over this petty '...but I want to show up the guy responding' business and have moved on.. We are trying to get this thread back on topic, and least until the next big thing diverts it from such.

    ANYWAY:
    @doriansdad, exactly, I doubt these sets are going to sneak up and fade away like last time.. I'm guessing most people are stocking up on 10s if not 100's, of these. So I would say that maybe one or 2 if you want them, but I would say to not try to make a killing on these, gone are the days of catwoman chases going for 30-40 IMO
    Thanos75
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815

    I agree. The new Marvel and DC sets will not come close to performing like the old Batman sets which nobody wanted even when they were available at a steep discount. Nowdays noob resellers stockpile anything with a discount sticker so the game has changed alot.

    @doriansdad The game has certainly changed... I have walked past so much stuff at 50% off and not bought it...and earlier this year took a pile back a week later that I had spent £500 on at 50% off. Funnily enough I have bought a few Two Faces this weekend at 55% discount because for this set you can't lose money on at that discount.
    And that's my game this year, I will only buy when I judge it is the absolute maximum discount it will go to. Like you say, too many people buying anything with a discount sticker.
    And I am not taking the p**s here but I am sat on a pile of FB's ( amongst other stuff which we know damn well what it is!) but I keep thinking long and hard about piling in on these even more. I just think that this year what you get for your money is very poor, and if this trend continues which it no doubt will then that will make FB the best value set around. I think it will increase post eol faster than what people think regardless of the retirement factor, just because of the comparison of what you get for your money regarding new releases.

  • indigoboxindigobox Member Posts: 470
    @Dad interesting comments above and I agree the market has changed somewhat. I occasionally buy sets to flip and then fund my other LEGO requirements.

    The thing i have noticed about the Batman set above is that if you sell as individual parts you easily make your cash back immediately. I guess it all depends if you can be bothered.
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 971
    indigobox said:

    The thing i have noticed about the Batman set above is that if you sell as individual parts you easily make your cash back immediately. I guess it all depends if you can be bothered.

    Thanks, I had a quick trawl of Ebay and it's looks like it will be worth splitting it :-)

  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,289
    Having both the current Batmobile and the original one, I find the current one to be significantly better in design and more fun to build. With the upcoming Riddler chase set revealed at comic-con, it looks like the next Batcar is more along the lines of a racecar than a traditional Batmobile and I think a lot of Batfans might end up pining for this one once it is off the market.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I have only 2 or 3 of most of the Batman and Marvel sets. They are interesting enough to buy for ny own collection and if I have to hold onto them for a long time, I might just crack one or two open just to let my daughter play with them :)
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    The way the reseller market is now your best bet is buying the highly rated sets that rarely go on sale. This means you really have to do your homework on securing discounts in other ways (cash back bonuses, coupons, discounted gift cards, freebie sets etc)....if you get creative it is not difficult to manufacture your own 25% discount.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2013

    Trenth said:

    Errr...we need a new topic..... sleeper picks anyone? Mine is the Sopwith or we could always just guess who the new Doctor will be.

    I think the Sopwith Camel may be a sleeper... I think the real riser will be the Haunted House....
    Yup, I think the Sopwith Camel will do well. Not sure if I'd call it a sleeper. I think it is generally thought that both the SC and the HH will do well. Another one I think that will do well is the VW Camper. I could see it doing better than the plane and even the HH. I really like its price point and price per piece. And, it makes a great display item. Course, as with all sets, a ton depends on how long they are out, how many are made and sold.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited August 2013
    I had to drive a VW van when I used to work for a car rental place one summer in 1989. I hated that thing. I had to pick up people from the airport and drive them to to hotel. No power and uncomfortable as hell. I didn't buy the VW mainly because of that. I'd only display that thing in my bathroom :) There are only so many places to display a Lego model and I would prefer to display something else besides that death trap. The classic VW Bug is more iconic.

    The Haunted House is the obvious choice, but the HH is much more than just a Lego set. It makes a great display piece, especially during Halloween. It comes with some great minifigures, two which are only available in that set. It opens up just like a dollhouse, so there is tons of playability. I customized mine so my daughter will have a nice Lego dollhouse to play with and I bought another one to display on Halloween. My guess is, that once HH retires, it will skyrocket in price regardless how obvious a winner it is.

    After the dust settles, the Haunted House will be one of the best Lego sets of all-time.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    A couple other will-be-awesome-post-eol factors with the HH are that it's very rarely been on sale, it's expensive, and it's big. Not many people are willing and able to say drop $1800 on 10 of them.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    Pitfall69 said:

    The Haunted House is the obvious choice, but the HH is much more than just a Lego set. It makes a great display piece, especially during Halloween. It comes with some great minifigures, two which are only available in that set. It opens up just like a dollhouse, so there is tons of playability. I customized mine so my daughter will have a nice Lego dollhouse to play with and I bought another one to display on Halloween. My guess is, that once HH retires, it will skyrocket in price regardless how obvious a winner it is.

    After the dust settles, the Haunted House will be one of the best Lego sets of all-time.

    Yes. This x 1 Billion. The set that brought me out of my dark ages due to its all around awesomeness. I'm actually considering buying another one so that I won't cringe when the kids play with it.

    I can only hope that TLG uses the HH as a blue print for future sets. I keep hoping for a Santa's workshop done in the same style.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    tensor said:

    A couple other will-be-awesome-post-eol factors with the HH are that it's very rarely been on sale, it's expensive, and it's big. Not many people are willing and able to say drop $1800 on 10 of them.

    I agree tenfold. It is easier to grab FB's at $111 or under. I also think that HH will not be around for a long time. I'm thinking not this October, but after next October 2014.
  • HarryPotterLoverHarryPotterLover Member Posts: 238
    I think either Batmobile looks okay (not a huge vehicles person anyhow) and has different designs from different Batman shows/books. I could see them MAYBE re-releasing Two-Face in another set but I cant really see along the lines of what or when
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ There ya go. Sell the FB's you have and buy HH's!

    I hear what you're saying about the VW Camper. I think the engine only had 40 HP and they could not test its zero to 60 time, because it couldn't get to 60. he he

    The HH will do well and it a very neat set, especially that it opens like a doll house. But, I still like the VW Camper better. Again, a lot comes down to how many are made and sold, and we can only guestimate on those numbers. It may not happen, but what if the HH goes down the FB path?
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    I think another set that could surprise everyone is the Modular Town Hall. It's not very flashy, no one really ever talks about it, and it is a bit more than the Palace Cinema. I think when it EOLs many people will have a duh-doy moment.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    I will probably be one of those people.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    ^ that would be in 2017.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Maybe, but the hype isn't there for that set. I see it flying under the radar and demanding a high price in the after-market.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    cloaked7 said:

    ^ There ya go. Sell the FB's you have and buy HH's!

    I hear what you're saying about the VW Camper. I think the engine only had 40 HP and they could not test its zero to 60 time, because it couldn't get to 60. he he

    The HH will do well and it a very neat set, especially that it opens like a doll house. But, I still like the VW Camper better. Again, a lot comes down to how many are made and sold, and we can only guestimate on those numbers. It may not happen, but what if the HH goes down the FB path?

    Funny story. These 2 business types got to the rental car place late and they had to get to the airport right away. They told me a huge tip was for me if they got to the airport on time to make their flight. I took a look at that sorry excuse for an automobile (VW Van) and told those guys to jump in the back of the car they dropped off and hold on. Got them to the airport on time and scored a huge tip.

    There isn't much difference between the top speed of a VW van and a VW Van sitting in a parking lot ;)

  • EKSamEKSam Member Posts: 349
    The HH is unique because it appeals to adults as well as kids. Its spooky yet has the playability of a doll house. My 8 old plays with it every single day, not even the hogwarts castle gets this much love.
    This one is a sure shot success.
    Pitfall69
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Trenth said:

    Maybe, but the hype isn't there for that set. I see it flying under the radar and demanding a high price in the after-market.

    Of course there's no hype. It has years left till retirement. Nothing to get "hyped" about yet.

    LegoFanTexas
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Jeez some people on this board need everything spelled out for them. Ok pirate this item did not have all of the fanfare of the Death Star, Fire Brigade, or Haunted House even when they were first released. Some sets potential resell value are discussed long before they retire or even like the Ewok village, before they are released. I haven't read any discussions about the Town Hall. This lack of buzz is what I am referring to. Besides the title of this thread is "Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value", so try to be less snarky and more constructive.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Town Hall will do fine when it retires, but it is a long way off and a rather boring building.

    When it comes along on sale, and after FB, GE, and PS have retired, then we can get excited. :). It might be 5 years before it retires however...
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    See LFT worded that a lot less abrasively. haha
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Frankly, what I think TH will have going for it more than anything...

    1. It is rather a "center piece" to a street, so some people will buy it to provide a center to a street.

    2. By the time it retires, the price per part will be very attractive. If 20 cents a part becomes normal in 5 years, then the set would "appear" to be a $500 set at that time.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Personally I see TH going EOL before any of those. This statement is not based on any credible evidence, I just don't see them producing the red-headed step-child of the modular family for four years with meager sells. Like I said though this is just speculation.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    edited August 2013
    Trenth said:

    Besides the title of this thread is "Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value", so try to be less snarky and more constructive.

    Yes, "discontinuing sets". :P

    But of course you're free to discuss FB or DS anytime. Those are house favorites :)
    Trenth
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,289
    I think @Trenth makes a good point, no reason that the modulars will all retire in order. If the TH is selling at half the pace of the FB or the PS, maybe they end that one sooner. It would certainly shake things up around here. In any event, surely something will have to go when the PR debuts next year.
    cloaked7
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 971
    cloaked7 said:



    I hear what you're saying about the VW Camper. I think the engine only had 40 HP and they could not test its zero to 60 time, because it couldn't get to 60. he he

    The HH will do well and it a very neat set, especially that it opens like a doll house. But, I still like the VW Camper better. Again, a lot comes down to how many are made and sold, and we can only guestimate on those numbers. It may not happen, but what if the HH goes down the FB path?

    My neighbour modified his VW camper and put a Porshe engine in it, as well as lowering the suspension etc, and he regularly takes it to a test track to play with it. I love the VW set and think that it will do nicely EOL, it has a high part count and will appeal to a lot of buyers.



  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079

    ...In any event, surely something will have to go when the PR debuts next year.

    Why do i feel like it sounds like sarcasm?! ;) i mean hasn't this been said before the release of every modular that came after FB?!?
    Bumblepants
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,554
    Lobot said:



    My neighbour modified his VW camper and put a Porshe engine in it, as well as lowering the suspension etc, and he regularly takes it to a test track to play with it.

    Alternatively he modified a Porsche by encasing it in a camper van.
    YellowcastleLobotcloaked7Pitfall69
  • givmellisgivmellis Member Posts: 23
    I was never a fan of the VW Camper as a car or a set but my girlfriend bought me a copy as a gift and I can honestly say i was wrong! I put this set in my top 5 builds of all time, is great value for money and is an excellent display piece. I believe this will be a sleeper post retirement hit.
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    The VW is one of my favourite builds as well. It's an amazing set, not only is it a great build, it's a great price and looks awesome when it's complete too. Coming from someone who isn't really into classic cars and certainly isn't into VW's I see the Camper as the showpiece vehicle for VW. I barely even know what the Bug is to be honest. It has a lot going for it, I fail to see how this won't be a massive hit.

    The HH is a clear winner as well. Along with everything that's already been said I've yet to see it at a discount and haven't even seen it for sale at Amazon where most of my cheap purchases come from. I'm thinking this'll be a set that disappears really suddenly and increases in value quickly too.
    givmellis
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2013
    Lobot said:

    ...I love the VW set and think that it will do nicely EOL, it has a high part count and will appeal to *a lot* of buyers.

    You should have added the following disclaimer - 'a lot' does not include those to at one time worked in the rental car industry and had to get late arriving customers to the airport in time using a VW Camper.

    he he (sorry, just had to post this) I'm now thinking that @Pitfall69 has flashbacks when he hears the pffffttttt sound of that 40 HP air cooled motor, on the rare occasion that someone is driving an old VW van or beetle. :-) Hopefully he doesn't live close to a hwy. :-)

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    The latest rumor about the mods I think was that FB and GE go out this year.. if that is the case then I see GE being more of a 'sleeper' than Town Hall..
    At 200 USD it is kind of hard to miss, boring build or not, and I'm sure people would buy them for parts as well (when on sale) for other mod buildings.
    I think GE would be more of a 'sleeper', and I use that term very loosely with mods, as if it goes out the same time as FB then it will have been out one year fewer than the FB and many people aslo think 'meh' to the GE.
    That being said I think it is safe to also say that many many resellers have bought many copies of all the mods (I think that some sellers use FBs instead of poker chips now).
    I also see TH being on sale (albeit sparingly) much more before its EOL via sites like Target, Walmart, and Amazon.com (unless all change their policies to stop putting those sets on sale). Whereas I can see something like HH, and SC, not being on sale much more and going at the end of this year because even though it is a Haunted House, it still says 'Monster Fighters' on the box, and I think that line is pretty near EOL if not already past.

    Of like any other opinion in this thread these opinions can be WAYYYYY off from what actually occurs :-)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    If HH goes by the end of this year, that set will do VERY well, I haven't stockpiled a single one and I suspect most other larger resellers only have a few, waiting for those sales and deals.

    FB? It will do ok, but nothing major, it just has been out too long and too many people have them. The primary problem? Even after trading away a bunch of them, I have 90 of them left, and I'm small time (I think so anyway). I know other resellers who have hundreds of them.

    GE? I used to have a few, but sold/traded them all. If this does go this year, it will do well. Not smashingly well, but well.

    TH? If it went this year, oh boy, sky's the limit. I had 3 of them, all gone now, I expect it to be around for years, as does everyone else. (most everyone anyway).

    PS? Likewise, if this leaves anytime soon, sky's the limit.

    VW Van? I had some of them, but traded them away, will replace them near the end of this year. It will do well, but be a long term riser. It isn't a huge sales mover.

    SC? Another long term riser, will do ok, but not smashing. This falls into the "I want to have 10-20 of them on the shelf, but no more" category.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    ^Thanks for the insight LFT.

    I used to have a good feeling about GE and PS (and FB a long time ago). But until SOMETHING retires, I won't pick up any modulars until I see how a flooded market responds.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ As mentioned, so much depends on how long a set stays around. HH being part of the Monster Fighters theme is something I obviously knew, but tend to not pay attention to, because I think of it more as a modular. Excellent point about it ending sooner due to that, which would obviously boost it later on.

    So much of LEGO is like the stock market, in that expectations account for a lot. If a set (zombies) retires a lot sooner than expected it almost always bodes well for the aftermarket, because people were caught off guard. Both those just wanting a copy and those wanting to stock up for resell. And, the opposite expectation holds true too, if a set (FB) is current for a lot longer than expected it hurts the resell value.
    LegoFanTexas
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    A set to keep an eye out on is Kingdoms Joust. Not so much for resale itself, but in comparison to the Haunted House. The rest of the Kingdoms line has been discontinued for over a year now, but Joust is still available. This tells me that the Haunted House will be similar. I would think that HH is a better seller than Joust as well. But who really knows.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    ^Both are just fantastic sets. But the lack of discounts is the hardest thing to overcome for both Joust and HH. Do I really expect these sets to triple in the near future? Tough to say yes to that, and put my money where my mouth is.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Joust is another set that looks like a winner, but isn't this like it's 100th year on the shelf? I think I'll probably just pick that one up for myself and not let it play head games with me about its possible post retirement performance. I imagine in 10 years it will be a shining star, but it will take 10 years of slowly rising.
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