Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Renny

Just my opinion but the term UCS is yesterday's news and no longer means anything.

The new #10240 X-Wing is basically identical to #7191 (and also comes with 200+ more pieces). The term UCS is an outdated marketing tool that Lego chooses to stamp on a set when they even care to remember to do so.

hoyatables

I can't imagine parting with the Falcon. There are sets with which I could easily part (I did sell my Market Street, for example) but I couldn't sell that one.

Legofanscott

tensor said:

SiE said:

If your holding UCS falcons as an investment your bonkers. Sell them and re invest. There are quite a few sets that are going to do really well available at the moment.

Easy to write that (well, maybe not, given the grammar), but this set is unique and is the paragon of Lego reselling. Every day that goes by one more gets opened, one more gets moisture damage on the box, one more gets dropped, one more gets dinged, one more box gets scratched, one more box fades from light exposure. The point is, this set hasn't peaked as is because the already limited supply becomes more limited over time.

That said, the biggest risk is Lego re-releasing it in some form, which imho is just a matter of time. So yeah, I know if I still had one, I'd dump it now.

At the price they are at now i find it hard to believe people are still opening these, imo i think most if not all of the ones currently being sold are being kept sealed

Pitfall69

I know this has been brought up before, but if the MF was released today, how much would it be?

LegoFanTexas

$599

LegoFanTexas

Legofanscott said:

At the price they are at now i find it hard to believe people are still opening these, imo i think most if not all of the ones currently being sold are being kept sealed

There is a segment of the population that is simply not price sensitive, you always have to remember that when selling expensive items.

There are people to whom $3,000 is not really that much money and they don't care, they'll buy it and open it and enjoy it.

And then ironically, when bored with it, will give it to a friend's kid. :) Lucky kid indeed, but it likely won't have the box or instructions by that point.

Dougout

^^$600 maybe, can't see it being much more, the high price is what killed the first one.

When the MF reaches $5,000 I might think about selling it, assuming I have already bricklinked most of the pieces for it by then.

jasor

The UCS MF released today would not be the same model, even if it was released for the first time. Even *IF* there is a rehash, it'll be some frankenblend of UCS and #7965.

Do you see them releasing more than a 3000+ piece model as a remodel?

Dougout

If I hit the lottery, I would instantly run over to my mother's basement and rip open my UCS Falcon.....then I would buy at least two more off eBay.

LegoFanTexas

jasor said:

The UCS MF released today would not be the same model, even if it was released for the first time. Even *IF* there is a rehash, it'll be some frankenblend of UCS and #7965.

Do you see them releasing more than a 3000+ piece model as a remodel?

10240 has more parts than 7191 did... sure, why not?

A new UCS Falcon might well be a 6,000 part model... If they could figure out how to give it an interior as well as be strong and able to be picked up, they'd have a winner. The lack of an interior hurt the last one.

Why do you think the SSD has that absurd "bridge"? :)

LegoFanTexas

Dougout said:

If I hit the lottery, I would instantly run over to my mother's basement and rip open my UCS Falcon.....then I would buy at least two more off eBay.

^ This... It is easy to apply one's own personal financial situation and not be able to "imagine" opening a UCS Falcon today.

But not everyone is in the same boat. There are a lot of people paying over $10,000 a month for their home. Every one of them can afford to buy and open a new UCS Falcon today, if they were so inclined to do so.

hoyatables

Is the 6211 ISD worthwhile? I have an opportunity to pick one up.

LegoFanTexas

6211 is, in my opinion, a really nice set. It is fun, large, and detailed enough to be interesting. It has fun interior play areas and it looks, for the most part, like the real thing.

It has a flat bottom so you can put it on a table, so just imagine cutting the bottom 1/4 off the ship and making it flat. :)

Nice set, would love to see a new one done.

TheLoneTensor

Legofanscott said:

tensor said:

SiE said:

If your holding UCS falcons as an investment your bonkers. Sell them and re invest. There are quite a few sets that are going to do really well available at the moment.

Easy to write that (well, maybe not, given the grammar), but this set is unique and is the paragon of Lego reselling. Every day that goes by one more gets opened, one more gets moisture damage on the box, one more gets dropped, one more gets dinged, one more box gets scratched, one more box fades from light exposure. The point is, this set hasn't peaked as is because the already limited supply becomes more limited over time.

That said, the biggest risk is Lego re-releasing it in some form, which imho is just a matter of time. So yeah, I know if I still had one, I'd dump it now.

At the price they are at now i find it hard to believe people are still opening these, imo i think most if not all of the ones currently being sold are being kept sealed

If this is true (and it likely is), then we've reached the point where it's just collectors selling to each other. Usually that signals a plateau of value, if not a ceiling or at worst a bubble about to pop. Like many have maintained, a Lego bubble is way different than other collectibles, but not so with this set. The value for this is WAY above the intrinsic value of the components, making it much more vulnerable to market fluctuation and speculation..

I honestly hope I'm wrong, and those of you that are holding onto it look back and laugh at silly comments like mine while holding your $10k check.

SirKevbags

^ Worthwhile as a set? I like it. Its no UCS ISD but its not trying to be. As a set to flip well that all depends on the price. Must be due for a remake before long.

hoyatables

I was looking at it more for personal consumption. Anytime I can buy a used set complete with box for a price at or below RRP this long after it EOLed, I'm pretty happy with the opportunity. I figure it is almost the equivalent of having a time machine and going back to 2007.

LegoFanTexas

tensor said:

The value for this is WAY above the intrinsic value of the components, making it much more vulnerable to market fluctuation and speculation.

Is it?

What is the cost to Bricklink UCS Falcon? Right now a used one is going for nearly $2K on Bricklink, I suspect doing a parted version that was 100% accurate would cost almost that much these days.

If so, that tells me that the price is right and that is just what that costs.

If by "intrinsic value" you just mean plastic bricks, then all LEGO is overpriced in that regard.

Or did you mean something else? Just trying to understand.

Renny

Not sure how accurate it is (and I'm sure S&H is not included) but according to BrickLink the average 6 month Part out Value of the #10179 Falcon is $2382.85. Currently the Part Out Value is listed at $2498.83 (with 1 lot item missing). This includes instructions and mini figures. Add another $200-$400 if you want a box.

BoiseState

So are you telling me I made a mistake by selling one for $1000? Ugh..

Pitfall69

LegoFanTexas said:

6211 is, in my opinion, a really nice set. It is fun, large, and detailed enough to be interesting. It has fun interior play areas and it looks, for the most part, like the real thing.

It has a flat bottom so you can put it on a table, so just imagine cutting the bottom 1/4 off the ship and making it flat. :)

Nice set, would love to see a new one done.

Just make sure it has a box ;)

TheLoneTensor

LegoFanTexas said:

tensor said:

The value for this is WAY above the intrinsic value of the components, making it much more vulnerable to market fluctuation and speculation.

Is it?

What is the cost to Bricklink UCS Falcon? Right now a used one is going for nearly $2K on Bricklink, I suspect doing a parted version that was 100% accurate would cost almost that much these days.

If so, that tells me that the price is right and that is just what that costs.

If by "intrinsic value" you just mean plastic bricks, then all LEGO is overpriced in that regard.

Or did you mean something else? Just trying to understand.

I don't think Bricklinking is a valid gauge to use for value, and certainly not as a sole determiner. The pieces that are unique and/or plentiful only in this set, are themselves tied into the value of the set, like the radar dish for example.

LegoFanTexas

Pitfall69 said:

Just make sure it has a box ;)

I clearly will never live that down. :)

jasor

LegoFanTexas said:

jasor said:

The UCS MF released today would not be the same model, even if it was released for the first time. Even *IF* there is a rehash, it'll be some frankenblend of UCS and #7965.

Do you see them releasing more than a 3000+ piece model as a remodel?

10240 has more parts than 7191 did... sure, why not?

A new UCS Falcon might well be a 6,000 part model... If they could figure out how to give it an interior as well as be strong and able to be picked up, they'd have a winner. The lack of an interior hurt the last one.

Why do you think the SSD has that absurd "bridge"? :)

I dont buy it. I may be wrong in my assumption (Lord knows it wouldnt be the first time), however....I just dont see TLG pumping out a 6000+ model anymore....and, even if they did, it would be count inflation plain and simple.

If the UCS MF never released until today, I think it would be a GREAT design...but less scale, less pcs count, and larger sticker price.

LegoFanTexas

UCS Falcon can't be any smaller if they want to hold to minifig scale.

Of course they don't *have* to keep that scale, but it might as well be, given how well that worked out.

Given that it is minifig scale, it is screaming for an interior.

So the question becomes, who here would buy a redone minifig scale UCS Falcon for $599 if it had 5,000+ parts and included a full interior?

graphite

^ I would if it wasn't done as a "play" interior with a crappy opening top like the system versions and didn't have any sort of pull out technic carrying handle. If the top was still really well done and came off in one piece just so that you could see the detailed interior.

BoiseState

I enjoyed the last MF that was put out..

graphite

^ I like it too and have it displayed but I wouldn't want a UCS set to have those playability features.

jasor

Take the Xwing, as it's more parts from previous discussion....It's 17% more parts, at 25% more cost.

That would mean a UCS Falcon release now would be 6080 parts, at $625.00 if you follow the average price per piece of the UCS line.

If you take only 2010-2013 average... you get

Entire Avg S189.46 1906pcs 0.102ppp
3 Year Avg $223.32 1917pcs 0.121ppp

That would well put the 6080 part model at above $725.00. I seriously doubt a new UCS Falcon would be of the same scale as the new one.

LegoFanTexas

Is 10240 longer or shorter than 7191?

jasor

^

7191 has a 20 inch wingspan
10240 has a 18 inch wingspan, if "wide" measurment is indicator.

Legofanscott

Would be good if they did do a 10179 remake but in all fairness there are many other big NON star wars sets that if they get made id be far more excited about.

IMO Lego Star wars has gotten to the point where its become so in your face and popular the theme is starting to wear thin for me and i only just gained an interest in Lego last year

Pitfall69

I really think that Lego should make lifesize brick built replica lightsabers. That should spark renewed interest into Star Wars Lego. I'm all for that. Release one light saber like they do with the Winter Village and Modular Building Series.

bp10030

Can someone please change the thread title? Not that anyone here could write something about lego. It would be so confusing ;)

Hardrada

We seriously need an off topic section. It has become quite inconvenient to follow this thread for those who are not interested in most of the usual off topic subjects.

If a newbie came in with newbie questions could you still heartily recommend them to read back? I think that would be a quite cruel advice.

jasor

Buy a Fire Brigade soon. It's pure gold dipped in ABS.

LegoFanTexas

jasor said:

Buy a Fire Brigade soon. It's pure gold dipped in ABS.

No, Fire Brigade is dead, buy Death Star, that is a sure fire winner, can't go wrong with that one! :)

Bumblepants

I think it is about time good ol' Construct-A-Zurg started shooting up the resale charts.

prevere

I keeping looking at Horizon Express and the Constitution trains, and thinking, one of these will be a winner and the other, so-so, in the aftermarket.

I just can't figure out which one.

Bumblepants

^I think there is room for them both to succeed. Very different models and age ranges as well. Will probably depend on how long they stay on the market. I think the biggest factor will be what sort of Creator Expert train replaces the HE. If it swings back to Steam that model might stymie the Constitution a good bit, especially with AFoLs

cloaked7

^ I think I see what you mean, but I can see both being winners.

- As with any set a lot will depend on how many are produced and for how long. That plus goes to the Const, since it is tied to TLR theme. The HE isn't tied to a theme so I see it staying around longer.
- I think the Const is more unique since it's a steam locomotive. So, another plus.
- The Const has extras (water tower, etc), a plus.
- And, IMO the Cons. is better looking. Personally I pick the Const over the HE.
- If all a person cares about is the train they could sell the minifigs to offset the price.

- I suppose the HE can be motorized easier. A plus for the HE.
- The HE has a much better price per piece. A plus.

I think the key will be to get the Const on sale for $75-80.

LegoFanTexas

TLR train has another benefit, it costs less and comes with track... :)

It isn't as nice as EN, but costs a lot less at this point. I think it will do well.

HE? Orange... bleah... not my choice, if it had been dark blue and actually labeled TGV, I would have been more interested. :)

BoiseState

I've noticed TLR minifigs aren't going for very much.. At least compared to other licensed themes when they first cone out.

TheLoneTensor

In my opinion, the HE is the perfect storm for a reseller. It's a train, it's ~$100 (on sale), it's a train, it's comes in a surprisingly small box (for storing), it's a train, it's a nice set and don't forget, it's a train.

cloaked7

^^ Didn't know the HE did NOT come with track. Ouch.

I really like the LEGO trains, but prefer the freight trains much more so than the passenger ones. Just not much uniqueness in the passenger trains. Pretty much they're just different colors. Course, I suppose you need at least one for your city.

graphite

BoiseState said:

I've noticed TLR minifigs aren't going for very much.. At least compared to other licensed themes when they first cone out.

1) its western which probably has lower popularity these days than in the past 2) The movie isn't out yet 3) Only the 2 main characters are "well known"

Themes like Star Wars have a lot of known "cool" figures. TMNT has a lot of past history and are specialized (head, shell). Super Heroes has lots of cool, interesting figs that have had a long following due to comics and TV/movies. LOTR no need to explain.

TLR just isn't that interesting compared to some. All of the bandits are just variants of each other. If I say Dan Reid, Frank, Ray, Latham Cole, Captain Fuller, how many people are going to immediately jump and say "aw man Frank is so awesome" or even know what theme its from.

Say Frodo, Gandalf, Obi-Wan, Jack Sparrow or any number of 100's of well known figs and people know who they are. Before TLR movie was announced I bet very few younger people today (<30) would know offhand who Tonto was.

cloaked7

"Before TLR movie was announced I bet very few younger people today (<30) would know offhand who Tonto was."

Yup. I spoke to one of the clerks at the LEGO store about that and he said no kids know who the Lone Ranger is. The see the set and then ask "Who is that masked man?" :-)

TheLoneTensor

cloaked7 said:

^^ Didn't know the HE did NOT come with track. Ouch.

The EN or Maersk didn't come with track either. These trains are clearly for people who already have track, or want a showpiece, etc.

As for the Constitution, I think it looks good, but I think they missed two key opportunities:

1) The engine needs more steam greebling, particularly they should have given it a driving rod for the wheels. That was just lazy design.

2) PF-modding is very difficult. Lego needs to come up with a generic car base that houses the whole shebang in it (IR, battery, motor) so that you can decorate it up to whatever theme you want and then it'll run, via pushing, any train you want like the Constitution, or the Ghost train, etc.

Pitfall69

I don't think you can really compare the two trains. The Constitution is first and foremost a playset. The construction of the set doesn't look overly complicated to construct and I think kids will enjoy it. It is just small enough the easily push it around the track. Which brings up something interesting. Over the years I have set up various train sets around the house for my nephews and nieces to play with. I also just got done setting up my daughters second train set. All these trains were motorized, but I noticed that they all loved to push the train by hand a lot more than watching go around the track on its own. I really think by pushing the train around the track gives the child more control. I don't think the Constitution was made to be motorized even though I'm sure someone will motorize it. I think Lego realized this as well and left it alone to keep costs down.

HE is more of an enthusiasts train model and is a nice display piece. I don't think the Constitution makes a great display train just on its own. Placed next to The Emerald Night, the Constitution looks silly. I like the HE, but as @LegoFanTexas said, the orange is not appealing.

TheLoneTensor

cloaked7 said:

"Before TLR movie was announced I bet very few younger people today (<30) would know offhand who Tonto was."

Yup. I spoke to one of the clerks at the LEGO store about that and he said no kids know who the Lone Ranger is. The see the set and then ask "Who is that masked man?" :-)</p>

That's the point of recurring media. Ask any kid who the Scarlet Pimpernel is and they wouldn't know, even though he's essentially Batman. The problem is that he hasn't been in media much for 100 years. Ask another kid who Scrooge is and chances are they'll know, even though that guy was created 100 years earlier.

If you aren't current, you aren't remembered.

jasor

^ His secret is kept by a band of friends known as the League of the Scarlet Pimpernel -- Lantern Pimpernel, Wonder Pimpernel, Super Pimpernel, and Martian Pimpernelhunter.