Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

BoiseState

I think a MF cartoon would be huge..

mathew

So was Monster Fighters really all that big of a hit? I think they would of had to make a cartoon more like Scooby Doo to appeal to kids. It would of made for a fun 40-75 minute movie though.

y2josh

^Obviously conjecture, but I think the sets performed better than anticipated. The Zombies is an outlier, of course, but near me, the castle and the little fishman set were always hard to find, and the mummy and Frankenstein's monster sets were difficult to come by for a few months after launch.

In terms of resale, I'd say about half the sets will do well (versus their RRP), but I think the hearse and train are looking to be the underperformers at this point. Or, at least the slowest risers. The train, which is a set I really like, is especially concerning since, even at 30% off, it hung around physical stores for way too long.

doriansdad

TLG is certainly releasing more themes than ever before. My strategy for reselling has not changed tho - I just select the cream of the crop. Out of the hundreds of sets TLG retires every year I select the best 3 or 4 and load up. For my personal collection I buy maybe 10 sets per year...I don't buy more because TLG releases more. Now if they released more quality sets I would certainly be buying more but as it stands 95% of what they sell does not appeal to me.

hoyatables

Well, part of the increase in themes is due to licensing, which they were not doing decades ago. Taking that out of the equation, I think they aren't exactly overwhelming with the amount of themes. At the core, you still have city (with occasional subthemes like farm or mining), castle, and some variation of space, plus specialties like the Monster Fighters or the pirates from a couple of decades ago. They then have basic blocks of course, Duplo, and Technic models.

The real addition are the adult-oriented models - the Modulars, architectural sets, etc. -- and the "action figure" type sets like Bionicle, Ninjago, Chima.

As a consumer, I don't find it overwhelming. I find it refreshing. I can still go back to classic city and castle type sets, but also get the really complex and detailed buildings as well. I know I can ignore the Ninjago type stuff and when they come out with specialty lines I can decide to take them (pirates) or leave them (monsters).

The licensed sets do add to the choices (and perhaps steal some cash away from city sets or discourage me from trying out non-licensed specialties like the Monsters). But taken as a whole, my love of Star Wars and LOTR has probably been far more likely to cause me to spend far MORE money than less on LEGO, because I just "have to have" the latest Battle at the Black Gate or whatever, and I'm more willing to pay a little bit more because it is licensed. For something like the Museum break-in, I'll wait for the sale.

prevere

tensor said:

prevere said:

You just have to adjust to market conditions, and pay attention to the trends. We all pretty much are given the same information, but there's only one difference between the wiseman and the fool.

I'm not quite sure of your points here, as the purpose of my post was indeed to discuss those trends and what ways we have to adjust to the resulting market conditions.

We've all rehashed this over and over. My point was not directed at your comments, but that those who listen, share and act on sound advice will benefit the most.

To comment on your post, specifically, I think the reselling market has and continues to tighten up. Lots of factors lead me to that reasoning, the biggest of which is simply the stockpile and quantity of retired sets posted online. The backlog includes TRU and other retailers now. Lego's popularity is growing, but there are simply too many options now.

So the # of retired set "hits" will lessen, the # of "misses" will increase. Over time, that will slowly weed out some resellers I suppose.

Bumblepants

Prediction: Either the Croc Swamp Hideout or the Lion Castle (or both) will be big hits for Chima come Christmas time and 15 to 20 pages into the future on this thread (or a lot more if we keep up the videogame tangents) we will be discussing what a surprise it was and who knew Chima would be such a good seller?.

2nd Prediction: While most Speedorz will be duds and hang around and hang around at clearance prices, some of the rarer characters like Foxes and Skunks that can't be obtained easily in sets will perform well.

FollowsClosely

#70010 The Lion CHI Temple
#70014 The Croc Swamp Hideout

BuriedinBricks

^My pick would be #70010. The swamp hideout is pretty boring.

Bumblepants

^yeah, sorry, I was lazy. Thanks for adding the numbers and proper names

prevere

When I first saw that Lion Temple, I thought it was pretty cool. I'm not a Chima fan, but THAT set is way done very well.

dragonhawk

Did anyone immediately think of the Thundercats HQ when looking at #70010 ?

mathew

mathew said:

So was Monster Fighters really all that big of a hit? I think they would of had to make a cartoon more like Scooby Doo to appeal to kids. It would of made for a fun 40-75 minute movie though.

Sorry Josh, would have...

The Lion Chi Temple is pretty cool. Great color palette and creative. The Castle designers need to think more outside of the box like this.

y2josh

dragonhawk said:

Did anyone immediately think of the Thundercats HQ when looking at #70010 ?

Yes I did. And actually, as maligned as Chima is here, I do think there are a few cool sets in the series... I just don't think the theme has the more universal appeal of Ninjago. But, as others have said, we'll see what happens when the cartoon kicks off properly.

graphite

^ Every time I go look at LEGO in the store I check out the Chima sets and the only one that stands out to me at all is the one with the Eagle jet thing. The minifigures are pretty cool but the overall coolness of the sets to me is significantly better with Ninjago.

xeeeej

Is #70010 available in the US anywhere? I couldn't find it online...

cloaked7

Was in the LEGO store this evening and saw the Lone Ranger sets. The train is nice and I'll be getting it and it will resell well, but I think the most impressive looking set is the stagecoach. Is it the first/only LEGO stagecoach? I see it being a perfect match for the train. The only set with Red Harrington, a very nice ,and unique looking, minifig. Another plus for the stagecoach.

jasor

^ stagecoach is my fave as well. It hits a mark in design through and through

CircleK

^^ Love the stagecoach. I got one as they showed up on Amazon. I'm honestly not much a fan of the Western genre, but the LR sets are absolutely superb. The Cavalry Builder was a must have for me as well. If you would have told me that I would have been interested in the LR theme 6 months ago I would have never believed it. I have zero interest in the movie. I think that speaks to just how well done that theme is. The first wave was solid and I really liked them all with the exception of the Comanche Camp. So... All but one set - I can't even say that about the themes I *do* collect.

y2josh

^I agree with everything you've listed, except that I like the Comanche Camp and think Colby City Showdown is kind of awful. Still, given that the movie looks absolutely abysmal, I'm astonished by how beautifully these sets turned out.

My main concern right now is, should I pick them up at the ~10% off that Amazon is offering them at right now, or do we think that this movie will bomb so miserably that we'll see PoP-style fire sales somewhere down the line?

LegoFanTexas

^ I believe it is way too early to be buying TLR sets... At some point Amazon will have them for 25% off. Of course, it might be for an hour or two, so it depends on your ability to watch for it. :)

dragonhawk

When does the LR movie hit the theaters anyway?

y2josh

^I think it's sometime over the Fourth of July holiday weekend.

y2josh

LegoFanTexas said:

^ I believe it is way too early to be buying TLR sets... At some point Amazon will have them for 25% off. Of course, it might be for an hour or two, so it depends on your ability to watch for it. :)

Oh. I agree. I'm just wondering if they'll reach PoP cheap or if 25% is the point to snag them... specifically the train and mine. The others I'm interested in are cheap enough that heavy discounts aren't really necessary, but would certainly be appreciated.

My sticking point here is, even if the movie tanks, the sets are still fantastic... which really couldn't be said of most of the PoP sets.

cloaked7

Yes, better prices can be found later, but a Jor-El can be found now! :-) Definitely enough for me to get the stagecoach and a couple other small sets to get to $75.

I'll get the train later. I like trains.

I think both the train and stagecoach will do well later, regardless of how the movie does. I would be reselling the sets long after the movie release. Sure, if they make a TLR 2 and 3 that helps. But, nice sets do well regardless. Who doesn't want a steam locomotive? :-)

Diggydoes

Now that the new Sydney Opera set got revealed is it time to stock up on Tower-Bridge?

LegoFanTexas

Diggydoes said:

Now that the new Sydney Opera set got revealed is it time to stock up on Tower-Bridge?

My info says Tower Bridge will be here until Dec 2014.

I would not have thought so before, however we do have five modular buildings out at once now, and a year ago no one expected that.

Diggydoes

I guess the Lego brandstores have to move soon,they will need so much more shelf-space!!! DS;TB and now Ewok-village and Sydney Opera,that's crazy!

BoiseState

I think Ewok Village bombs..

FollowsClosely

BoiseState said:

I think Ewok Village bombs..

Disagree. It's a unique set, it will sell and sell well.

y2josh

BoiseState said:

I think Ewok Village bombs..

I don't think it will do as well as the Death Star, but it's a very nice set and it actually does have one advantage over the Death Star - it appeals to a larger audience than 'just SW fans.' So, I doubt it hangs around for five or six years, but I still think it'll be a home run for LEGO.

LegoFanTexas

EV has another benefit over DS, it is half the price (or close to it).

$250 is much easier to accept for many parents than $400 and that will help. On discount on Amazon, I expect we'll see it @ $200 from time to time.

At that price, it will sell very well.

Pitfall69

Ewok Village is do well. I don't think the Lone Ranger movie has to do well for the Lego sets to do well. People have been wanting Lego to resurrect the Western theme for come time. Some of the sets look great.

I still don't know if and when I will pick up the Tower Bridge. What do you guys think it will do after EOL? I know it is an iconic landmark/structure, but it may not appeal to everyone. Same with the Sydney Opera House.

y2josh

^I expect Tower Bridge to perform to what I consider 'typical' aftermarket levels. There should be an initial spike once people realize it's gone (more drastic if it's close to the holidays... but it would likely drop a bit after if that winds up being the case) and then it should level off somewhere in the low $400's and make steady progress from there.

Bear in mind, though... the set is currently still in production, so even if they stopped the run tomorrow, we'd still be a ways off from the supply actually being exhausted... unless this set is considerably more popular than I'm lead to believe.

Devastator

Seriously, which sets have had as long of a run as the DS? I doubt few could match it. Also, I like the Ewok Village and hope it does well. I hope to have both some day... Im not sure if my wife feels that way, but I do.

LegoFanTexas

Tower Bridge has the problem of coming after Eiffel Tower, Taj Mahal, Grand Carousal, etc.

Since those have done so well, Tower Bridge is probably being stocked by quite a few people in reasonable qty. I had more of them but I've traded away about half of the stock now, because I do believe it will be around for another 18 months, so keeping a bunch right now seems pointless.

If anyone wants 10 Tower Bridges, let me know. :)

jcb193

I am so excited to see them start doing some large scale architecture models (Sydney). I can't get into the smaller black ones, but these look great. So what all are there now:
Taj Mahal
Eiffel Tower
Statue of Liberty
Sydney Opera House
Tower Bridge

Also, do you guys think that Ewok Village will finally be the force that drives Battle for Endor higher?

jcb193

I also think Sydney Opera House could do very well long term, as almost all of my overseas lego buyers are Australian these days.

doriansdad

LegoFanTexas said:

My info says Tower Bridge will be here until Dec 2014.

I would not have thought so before, however we do have five modular buildings out at once now, and a year ago no one expected that.

Interesting. I have heard from multiple sources that TB is going at the end of this year.

Pitfall69

Maybe, but Battle of Endor isn't really exciting to begin with. I think it will go the route of Home One. If the set had more exclusive minifigures. Ewok Village has pretty much all the main characters. I think people will still be content buying the 3-4 exclusive minifigures rather than buying the whole set.

jcb193

I just figured for play value Battle for Endor + Ewok Village gives you some pretty cool play. You get the AT-ST to smash (though I doubt it fits under EV), another speederbike and catapult and more troops and ewoks...Still a decent value at $100. Just a thought-

prevere

Something tells me there are not a lot of folks stocking up on the TB. But I also don't think it'll rise in value like its mega-architectural predecessors.

Gavin83

I guess a lot depends on where you are from as well. It'll probably do better in the UK than elsewhere in the World. Still, it's not as iconic Worldwide as the other large architecture sets and to be honest I think it's a bit of a strange choice, there are other monuments in London they could have done which are arguably more famous, for example Big Ben or St Pauls.

Still, it's an awesome model and I've no doubt it'll do well, just not as well as the previous sets. I've only got my own copy but I'll pick up a few more at the end of the year.

y2josh

doriansdad said:

LegoFanTexas said:

My info says Tower Bridge will be here until Dec 2014.

I would not have thought so before, however we do have five modular buildings out at once now, and a year ago no one expected that.

Interesting. I have heard from multiple sources that TB is going at the end of this year.

For what it's worth, the last I heard was that they were stopping the production run on Tower Bridge in October. This info was from back in March, though, so take that for what it's worth. Additionally, as I'd mentioned above, unless it's an insanely popular model, I'd expect it to be available for several months afterwards (potentially more if it makes it through the 'buying season' and hangs around into the spring).

doriansdad

prevere said:

Something tells me there are not a lot of folks stocking up on the TB. But I also don't think it'll rise in value like its mega-architectural predecessors.

The problem with TB is the price point. The $200 - $250 price range is where sets fly off the shelf for me (Emerald Night, Maersk Train, Diagon Alley, Hogwarts Castle etc) but at $350+ the market is very thin in comparison. As a collector TB is a very cool set but as an investment I can make 10x the profit elsewhere.

Dougout

^If the price really is the problem than TLG is shooting themselves in the foot by putting out an even more expensive Sydney Opera House.

Gavin83 said:

Still, it's not as iconic Worldwide as the other large architecture sets and to be honest I think it's a bit of a strange choice, there are other monuments in London they could have done which are arguably more famous, for example Big Ben or St Pauls.

I second the Big Ben set, that would do very well. I don't know enough about St. Pauls to have a say on that, but I would say the Cathedral of Notre Dame is fairly popular worldwide.

y2josh

Dougout said:

^If the price really is the problem than TLG is shooting themselves in the foot by putting out an even more expensive Sydney Opera House.

The price is the problem for the reseller. It's easier to make more money back quickly on sets with lower RRPs than it is to, say, sell a retired Tower Bridge for $500.

Dougout

Oh I see, so maybe it's actually better for TLG to have a higher RRP on large scale architecture, at least in their eyes, because less resellers will be stocking up and "taking away" from future sales.

cloaked7

The way I see it, high prices hurt all concerned. I think they hurt LEGO more than resellers. You have fewer 'regular' people buying the set. You have fewer resellers buying the set. So, LEGO sells fewer sets. And, it hurts in comparison to other sets. Most everyone comparison shops so a higher price for set A as compared to set B means people are going to lean toward set B. And, a LEGO set vs a PS4 or some other completely different item.

Course, it can become an emotional decision more than a logical one. If the set is awesome then price comes into play a bit less.

LegoFanTexas

I just don't understand why LEGO doesn't get the whole "consumer marketing" thing.

SOH has just under 3,000 parts and is just over $300. It should be the other way around, just over 3,000 parts and just under $300 ($299).

Taj Mahal was $299 with nearly 6,000 parts, abit granted they were almost all very small.

Still, while it is true that part count isn't everything, it does take "time" to put each part together, it should take about twice as long to build a Taj Mahal as it does SOH, given the double part count. If it only takes 5-10 hours to build SOH for $320, is that a "value" to the average consumer?

Note: No one reading this on Brickset is an "average consumer", so take us all out of that question.

The comment about PS4 is a good one. One of the reasons video games sell so well is the endless hours of entertainment for the dollars spent. My son has 100+ hours into LEGO Star Wars on his PS3, that game was $20, do the math. :)