Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

prevere

HH retiring in 9 months is just as likely as the City Corner being re-released. Oh, wait a minute...

Brickarmor

^Panic buying in 3, 2...

Look over there! It's #9516 escaping in a smoke bomb of controversy!

Legofanscott

Brickarmor said:

^Panic buying in 3, 2...

Look over there! It's #9516 escaping in a smoke bomb of controversy!

Unfortunately thats whats gunna happen, however im not buying one as until i see the day come i am 100% sure it wont be going anywhere

Anyone who thinks Lego will retire a set like that in only 9 months are just blatantly stupid

cloaked7

Has anyone calculated rough stats on the odds of getting a Mr Gold? One aspect, there are 50 U.S. states. Approx how many Mr Gold's would be distributed per state? I bet there's a very good chance there are only a handful per state. Then how many locations (WM's, Targets, TRU's) are there in a given state? I think I may be better off purchasing a lotto ticket.

binaryeye

cloaked7 said:

I bet there's a very good chance there are only a handful per state.

I'd bet the distribution has nothing to do with state. There are likely many, many more in California than in Vermont, for example.

Though, really, this belongs in the Mr. Gold thread.

Pitfall69

I think you want to weigh them because maybe you think there us an extra pack in the box perhaps? They replaced one of the other minifigures with Mr. Gold. You would have no clue if Mr. Gold was in there based on weight. You could do that with sets that had C-3PO and Darth Vader randomly inserted because that was extra weight.

graphite

^ I believe it was covered in the other thread that Mr Gold replaces I think a baseball player so there probably is no weight difference.

Legofanscott

binaryeye said:

cloaked7 said:

I bet there's a very good chance there are only a handful per state.

I'd bet the distribution has nothing to do with state. There are likely many, many more in California than in Vermont, for example.

Though, really, this belongs in the Mr. Gold thread.

Maybe Lego made it so that say:

1500 for the USA
1500 for europe
and so on rather than being as precise as to each state

cloaked7

^ True, no one outside of LEGO knows the distribution. Per continent, per state, per anything. Just doing some very rough estimates. Let's say it is 1,500 in the US. Divided per 50 states that is an avg of 30 per state. (yes, some larger states (TX, CA) would end up with more than Vermont, Alaska. But, just for easy math say your state gets 30.

Now, how may WM's, Targets, TRU's are in your state? Again, just for easy math let's say there are 1,000 WM's, 1,000 Targets and 500 TRU's. So, that's 50 retail stores in each state and 30 Mr Gold's in each state. Now include S&H, toy stores, etc. and that should easily bring the 50 to 60. Now 60 retail locations in each state, 30 Mr Gold per state. So, a 50/50 chance that a location would have a Mr Gold.

Yup, a lot of estimates, questimates, but the odds don't look good for finding a Mr Gold. A person would have to buy all the minifigs at 2 or 3 stores to have a really good chance of finding a Mr Gold? Just saying, I think it is very long odds.

binaryeye

cloaked7 said:

Let's say it is 1,500 in the US. Divided per 50 states that is an avg of 30 per state. (yes, some larger states (TX, CA) would end up with more than Vermont, Alaska. But, just for easy math say your state gets 30.

Why would each state get a fixed number? If that were the case, you would be ~66 times more likely to find Mr. Gold in Wyoming than in California. The number found in each state suggests distribution is based on stores (i.e. population).

http://minifigures.lego.com/en-us/GoldenMinifigure/Map.aspx

And, apparently, all were found at Target. ;)

Legofanscott

Wow, 140 found in my country(UK)

Thats a HUGE amount when you consider the size of the place

prevere

The only thing better than Mr. Gold, is his companion, the Gold Digger! Complete with iphone for questionable purchases and VISA.

This made my day. You only need one guess to know where I found it (9 sold, only 1 left, hahaha).

prevere

I know this really belongs on the Mr. Gold thread. But they were talking about LeBron, so I figured I can put this here.

TheLoneTensor

I'd be really surprised if the distribution of Mr. Golds is anything but random (or as close to random as can be) amongst the entire stock of series 10 packs, and then the subsequent world distribution of Mr. Golds is simply a function of where the series 10's end up at the end of the supply chain.

In other words, if the U.S. ends up with more, it would be a function of the U.S. having more series 10 packs in total, as opposed to someone, somewhere dictating that "the U.S. gets this many Mr. Golds, the UK gets this many, the Moon gets this many, etc."

jasor

^ " the Moon gets this many, etc"

Once EOL...I bet TLG goes back to a "sans chase" lineup.

prevere

Captain America...the 1st Avenger, and maybe the first regular Super Heroes set to retire?

Listed as sold out with no availability date. Now, this can go either way. Amazon still has a bunch.

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Captain-America-s-Avenging-Cycle-6865

TheLoneTensor

jasor said:

^ " the Moon gets this many, etc"

Once EOL...I bet TLG goes back to a "sans chase" lineup.

I sure hope so. In fact, for series 11, each of the CMFs should come with an extra 2x2 tile printed with a letter that spells out "WE ARE REALLY SORRY"

cloaked7

binaryeye said:

cloaked7 said:

Let's say it is 1,500 in the US. Divided per 50 states that is an avg of 30 per state. (yes, some larger states (TX, CA) would end up with more than Vermont, Alaska. But, just for easy math say your state gets 30.

Why would each state get a fixed number? If that were the case, you would be ~66 times more likely to find Mr. Gold in Wyoming than in California. The number found in each state suggests distribution is based on stores (i.e. population).

http://minifigures.lego.com/en-us/GoldenMinifigure/Map.aspx

And, apparently, all were found at Target. ;)

I just included the 50 states as part of the guessimate to maybe make it something a person could relate to. If you note I said 'for easy math say each state gets 30'. You can leave the states out of it. 1,500 figures, 3,000 U.S. locations. (both 1,500 and 3,000 being reasonable guesses, I think) Each location has a 50/50 chance of getting one. So, out of all the minifigs two WM's, or Target, gets there is 1 Mr Gold. As I mentioned, very low odds.

Pitfall69

So, I asked awhile back if Minecraft was still a decent investment. Well, there are 2 more Minecraft sets rumored to be released.

Renny

I've still got my copies and believe they will do well again long term, especially with new sets being announced. It's becoming a sub theme within a theme and fans will want them all.

MathBuilder

tensor said:

In fact, for series 11, each of the CMFs should come with an extra 2x2 tile printed with a letter that spells out "WE ARE REALLY SORRY"

Did you craft that phrase calculating that it will require 16 letters, 1 per minifig, to be completed? Or was it mere coincidence?

TheLoneTensor

MathBuilder said:

tensor said:

In fact, for series 11, each of the CMFs should come with an extra 2x2 tile printed with a letter that spells out "WE ARE REALLY SORRY"

Did you craft that phrase calculating that it will require 16 letters, 1 per minifig, to be completed? Or was it mere coincidence?

Heh, took a few minutes to craft. I wish I were that instantaneously creative and lucky.

Back on track, I to believe that the original Minecraft will do ok long term if only because eventually it will be retired with new sets coming out. That said, is there any way to tell the sets from one run to another? I know Lego collectors don't normally put credence in "print runs" like book collectors do, but it'd be nice to know if there is a differentiator.

CCC

MathBuilder said:

tensor said:

In fact, for series 11, each of the CMFs should come with an extra 2x2 tile printed with a letter that spells out "WE ARE REALLY SORRY"

Did you craft that phrase calculating that it will require 16 letters, 1 per minifig, to be completed? Or was it mere coincidence?

There are quite a few that work (including punctuation) ...

WE REALLY F****D UP
YOU DIDN'T GET ONE!
STILL COLLECTING?

prevere

Pitfall69 said:

So, I asked awhile back if Minecraft was still a decent investment. Well, there are 2 more Minecraft sets rumored to be released.

I'm struggling with the question: Is Minecraft a fad that will subside in a few years, or not? That said, I think there is probably enough sold to resellers that it will double in retirement. But struggle beyond that because of the high quantities available.

FenrisAkashi

Pitfall69 said:

So, I asked awhile back if Minecraft was still a decent investment. Well, there are 2 more Minecraft sets rumored to be released.

Personally I would probably steer clear of Minecraft as a long term investment.
Minecraft isnt your typical licensed property that has long established fans and isnt going anywhere.
There is unlikely to be any sequels going forward and that effects the growth of any fan base.

They are a neat crossing of video games and Lego currently, but I think expecting it to do well in the long run is like hoping that tickle-me-elmos would have continued to increase in value...

cloaked7

FenrisAkashi said:

There is unlikely to be any sequels going forward and that effects the growth of any fan base.

I would be surprised if there were NOT a Minecraft II game. It happens with almost every popular game. If you were the software developer of Minecraft would you come out with a Minecraft II? You bet you @$$ you would. :-)

Minecraft is very popular within its age group. I guess I'm going against the grain, but I think Minecraft will do quite well long term. Just think, a couple of years from now when Minecraft II comes out along with the 3rd (or 4th?) Minecraft LEGO set. And the 1st and 2nd Minecraft LEGO sets are retired.

prevere

^Sounds like we should be expecting a UCS Minecraft here shortly.

FenrisAkashi

@cloaked7 No Offense intended but I am curious if you are very familiar with what Minecraft is as a game...

It started with a single dev just messing with a pixelated building world, extremely simple.
It went viral, and has been very popular since. The viral nature of the game is core to its commercial success.
However, the dev has moved to to different games, latest being Scrolls.

Minecraft is essentially about minimalism. Basics, the graphics are horrible the controls rudimentary, but there is something primal about it, people like to build. But a lot of its charm is that its basic.
I would be very interested to see if Notch ever attempts a sequel...
Personally I think not as essentially it doesn't fit with what made the game popular and viral in the first place.
I think hes smart enough to realize to cash in now on this and continue to make other original games.
Does that mean we won't see a sequel at some point... nope, money is a powerful motivator, but do I think it will share in the originals success?
I think its highly unlikely.

As such I find it unlikely that Minecraft will be hold long term value.
Also if I'm not mistaken these sets are easy BL'd using standard pieces (I may be wrong here I've never looked at the specific bricks just the outside) making it even less of good bet long term.

Bandit

FenrisAkashi said:

Personally I would probably steer clear of Minecraft as a long term investment.
Minecraft isnt your typical licensed property that has long established fans and isnt going anywhere.
There is unlikely to be any sequels going forward and that effects the growth of any fan base.

They are a neat crossing of video games and Lego currently, but I think expecting it to do well in the long run is like hoping that tickle-me-elmos would have continued to increase in value...

Not going anywhere and no long established fans? I'm not sure what planet you're on, but Minecraft is a phenomenon. Do you have kids? I've never seen anything like it. No other game has affected my kids and every other kid I know the way Minecraft has. And it's awesome. Entirely and utterly creative, simple yet deceptively complex and deep, it's the only 'game' I'm happy to let my kids play as much as they want.

It's truly amazing to watch my kids play and see what they build, how they learn and get better and figure things out, what they come up with, and watch their creative juices flow. The fact that they get more enjoyment playing this game more than anything else, a game with virtually no violence, no conflict, no negativity -- just pure unadulterated creativity, is so heartening in this day and age, it's almost unbelievable.

If TLG had a brain, they would try and figure out a partnership with Mojang and license it (if not flat out buy them), and make Lego Minecraft. Lego bricks rather than all the other blocks and widgets. That would be truly unbelievable. It's a no-brainer. *This* is the game that Lego Universe should have been.

Pitfall69

I know that the new Xbox One will have Minecraft.

I haven't seen anything like Minecraft either. My nephews love it. I don't get Minecraft either and the Lego Minecraft is even more of a head scratcher, but nevertheless, it was a huge seller and probably partly the reason why Lego is banning resellers.

FenrisAkashi

Pitfall69 said:

I know that the new Xbox One will have Minecraft.

I haven't seen anything like Minecraft either. My nephews love it. I don't get Minecraft either and the Lego Minecraft is even more of a head scratcher, but nevertheless, it was a huge seller and probably partly the reason why Lego is banning resellers.

Xbox one? The 500$ monstrosity that MS is gonna be backpedaling on as hard as possible to not just take a dive to Sony? :D

Yes it will have it...the same old minecraft....the one that also available on your phone or tablet.
Its not new, its just offering it on a new platform.

My point has never been that Minecraft isnt very popular right now. It is very.
And yes it has an insane growth trajectory. I mentioned that before. Notch went from one guy coding in his home to having a 100 million dollar dev studio in a short number of years.

So by all means make as much as you can off the hype.

My point is that to me the extreme reaction to the Minecraft Lego set is a more a "tickle me elmo" type of deal than a sustained long term desire for the set.

I could be wrong obviously. Time will tell.

Pitfall69

I don't know. That is why I asked the question in the first place. Remember, this is Lego we are talking here and it has been discussed many times within these 256+ pages that Lego is unlike sports cards, Action Figures, Beanie Babies and Elmos. So, it is hard to gauge whether Minecrafts value will be sustainable in the future.

Pitfall69

I'm still getting the Xbox One. Remember, Xbox One is being shipped with Kinect. Sony's PS4 will not have the Eye. That will be an extra $50 or so. The gap is not as wide as you think.

pillpod

Not to turn this into a gaming thread, but people aren't buying PS4 solely due to price; in fact, price is probably far down the list.

Pitfall69

pillpod said:

Not to turn this into a gaming thread, but people aren't buying PS4 solely due to price; in fact, price is probably far down the list.

We have already done that a few pages back...lol. I only mention it because of Minecraft.

TheLoneTensor

Pitfall69 said:

I'm still getting the Xbox One. Remember, Xbox One is being shipped with Kinect. Sony's PS4 will not have the Eye. That will be an extra $50 or so. The gap is not as wide as you think.

This, plus the fact that Xbox live > Sony's network.

Anyway, I think Minecraft as a game may be very nearing its peak, if it hasn't already, at least in its current incarnation. Even WoW has reached the point of diminishing returns. If the game goes on a downward slope, the Lego sets will not hold value at all.

madforLEGO

All gaming manufacturers charge a ton of money the first year to get all the suckers that 'have to have it now'.
It does not help that almost every video game is like the one before it.
Video games have not had any original ideas since Doom came out and crippled the gaming world with 3 million different versions of the first person shooter.
So why bother buying Halo 3 if the action is just like Halo2?
Sure sure... I'm sure there are super gamers that say but wait the graphics this, or the game play that.. its all the same (with a few notable exceptions). Really.. point then shoot, and run around, then repeat.. While the enemies changes, human, zombies, aliens, etc.. it is all the same boring concept and the same thing that crippled gaming back in the 80's with uninteresting ideas.
At least the LEGO games are a bit unique, although getting a bit frustrating in overall play as they move away from the original games like LEGO Batman and LEGO Indy IMO.
I miss games like Maniac Mansion and Full Throttle. How bout Loom where the entire game you use musical notes to cast spells to solve puzzles? The great story lines in those adventure games, like the LucasArts games (before they decided to ditch every interesting idea for games in favor of SW everything), there was Sierra with Space Quest, Police Quest, Tex Murphy... etc.. games that made you think went any in favor of the games that make you drool with a vacant stare while you hunt to kill the next thing that appears on the screen. One reason I bought a new console is for the LEGO games, a couple of driving games, but Monkey Island is on XBL Arcade.

I just laugh at people that mercilessly fight over which console is better... meh.. all the games are darn near identical.

Sorry, got away from the thread.. so when is DS retiring...

FenrisAkashi

@Pitfall69

As someone who never really even looked at a PS3 and has always been a 360 supporter I have to say I'm not getting an Xbox One. If I buy a console this tie around it will be a PS4.

The issue isnt software or price, those are just bonuses.
The issue is the ownership of software and the openness of the ecosystem.
I dislike Apple products for the same reasons, I don't like being sold a complete package and being told how its going to work. I don't like having a camera and audio recording device always on in my home.

Its worked fine for Apple and it may work for MS, but given the mindset of a lot of gamers like myself...I hope we will see MS backpedaling on many things shortly.

Mini game rant over! Back on topic!


What does everyone think about the Vampyre Hearse post EOL?

Bumblepants

I think it will take awhile for the Hearse to amount to much. been sitting at $27 for months on Amazon and the other online competitors which is a decent discount off RRP. Set like that only makes sense to me if you find a good clearance deal to increase the profit potential to a reasonable level

TheLoneTensor

madforLEGO said:

I just laugh at people that mercilessly fight over which console is better... meh.. all the games are darn near identical.

In all fairness, it's not that simple, which is why I brought up the XBox Live vs PlayStation Network. Modern Warfare 3 (my particular game of choice), is unplayable on PSN for lots of reasons, whereas XBL is ok (I say ok because it could really use improvements also). Regardless of the consoles, that is enough for me to not choose a PS. Throw in the fact that Kinect, especially the new version that comes with the XO is by far the better motion interaction system and yeah, you end up with serious reasons why one console is indeed better than the other.

As for the hearse, it'll do pretty well in the aftermarket, at least $50 instantly after it retires, probably breaking $75 by next year, especially by Halloween. The glowing version, more than that. Of course, that's one of those set sizes that are on the bubble where you have to ask yourself if it's worth dealing with the quantity over quality to make a profit.

Pitfall69

^I received mine as a gift, so anything I get for it will be a plus. The Hearse goes well with the HH IMO and might make a good package deal.

Pitfall69

@FenrisAkashi I am putting my Xbox One in my bathroom ;)

y2josh

FenrisAkashi said:

@Pitfall69

As someone who never really even looked at a PS3 and has always been a 360 supporter I have to say I'm not getting an Xbox One. If I buy a console this tie around it will be a PS4.

I'm in the same boat, EXCEPT... Sony's press conference left me EXTREMELY concerned. If your entire pitch for your system is: "At least we're not as bad as Microsoft," there's a real problem there. So at this point, I'm hoping MS drops a lot of their dumber ideas, elsewise I'm probably giving this generation a pass. At least for the foreseeable future.

LegoFanTexas

Pitfall69 said:

I'm still getting the Xbox One. Remember, Xbox One is being shipped with Kinect. Sony's PS4 will not have the Eye. That will be an extra $50 or so. The gap is not as wide as you think.

:) XBox One is evil, I refuse to own one...

The fact that the console is useless for playing games if it doesn't phone home every 24 hours is a horrible idea. What happens when they turn the servers off in 10 years? You own a brick and a bunch of games that can never be touched again.

Imagine if you couldn't play a NES, or a PS1 today because "servers" were turned off at some point and that bricked the systems.

Oh, and yes please, I'll take an always on camera in my home that must be connected all the time for the console to work... not...

Oh, and no lending games, or reselling games, or trading them in... the publisher has to "allow it".

Sony listened with the PS4. It has a 50% faster graphics card, it has better memory, and it never, ever has to be connected to anything to work. You own your games that you buy and can play them forever.

LegoFanTexas

madforLEGO said:

I miss games like Maniac Mansion and Full Throttle. How bout Loom where the entire game you use musical notes to cast spells to solve puzzles? The great story lines in those adventure games, like the LucasArts games (before they decided to ditch every interesting idea for games in favor of SW everything), there was Sierra with Space Quest, Police Quest, Tex Murphy... etc.. games that made you think went any in favor of the games that make you drool with a vacant stare while you hunt to kill the next thing that appears on the screen

I loved games like Kings Quest and Space Quest back in the day...

Indiana Jones and the Facte of Atlantis was quite good as well...

So why don't they make more of those? Why did LucasArts move away from those? Why make lousy games today instead of amazing games like X-Wing and TIE Fighter?

Because Call of Duty sells billions of dollars worth of copies every year. Those games never did and never will, they require too much attention span and thinking for the average beer drinking Joe.

Not to put such people down, but that is the honest truth of it. Those games never produced numbers in either units moved or dollars earned that titles today do, which is why the industry moved the way it did.

When is the last time we had a great space game? Freespace? It has been awhile... Wing Commander was amazing, at least 1 and 2 were... but then they didn't sell well enough to keep making them...

Shame, but that is life. :)

Legofanscott

tensor said:

madforLEGO said:

I just laugh at people that mercilessly fight over which console is better... meh.. all the games are darn near identical.

In all fairness, it's not that simple, which is why I brought up the XBox Live vs PlayStation Network. Modern Warfare 3 (my particular game of choice), is unplayable on PSN for lots of reasons, whereas XBL is ok (I say ok because it could really use improvements also). Regardless of the consoles, that is enough for me to not choose a PS. Throw in the fact that Kinect, especially the new version that comes with the XO is by far the better motion interaction system and yeah, you end up with serious reasons why one console is indeed better than the other.

As for the hearse, it'll do pretty well in the aftermarket, at least $50 instantly after it retires, probably breaking $75 by next year, especially by Halloween. The glowing version, more than that. Of course, that's one of those set sizes that are on the bubble where you have to ask yourself if it's worth dealing with the quantity over quality to make a profit.

The Kinect issue is really a matter of opinion though, it doesnt really make it better, i myself always prefer using a controller and would never consider using kinect no matter how many people told me otherwise, im just not interested in using a console that way.

LegoFanTexas

tensor said:

In all fairness, it's not that simple, which is why I brought up the XBox Live vs PlayStation Network. Modern Warfare 3 (my particular game of choice), is unplayable on PSN for lots of reasons, whereas XBL is ok (I say ok because it could really use improvements also). Regardless of the consoles, that is enough for me to not choose a PS. Throw in the fact that Kinect, especially the new version that comes with the XO is by far the better motion interaction system and yeah, you end up with serious reasons why one console is indeed better than the other.

Or you could play MW3 on the best system around... a good PC. :) For FPS, that kicks any console any day of the week, you really need a mouse. :)

As for Kinect, the problem is that it is always on and always able to record everything. Do you really want that in your home?

cloaked7

FenrisAkashi said:

@cloaked7 No Offense intended but I am curious if you are very familiar with what Minecraft is as a game...

It started with a single dev just messing with a pixelated building world, extremely simple.
It went viral, and has been very popular since. The viral nature of the game is core to its commercial success.
However, the dev has moved to to different games, latest being Scrolls.

Minecraft is essentially about minimalism. Basics, the graphics are horrible the controls rudimentary, but there is something primal about it, people like to build. But a lot of its charm is that its basic.
I would be very interested to see if Notch ever attempts a sequel...
Personally I think not as essentially it doesn't fit with what made the game popular and viral in the first place.
I think hes smart enough to realize to cash in now on this and continue to make other original games.
Does that mean we won't see a sequel at some point... nope, money is a powerful motivator, but do I think it will share in the originals success?
I think its highly unlikely.

As such I find it unlikely that Minecraft will be hold long term value.
Also if I'm not mistaken these sets are easy BL'd using standard pieces (I may be wrong here I've never looked at the specific bricks just the outside) making it even less of good bet long term.

Yup, I know a lot about Minecraft. So, it started as shareware, or whatever, on the PC. I don't think kids care about that. I have spoke to parents of young boys and that speaks volumes.

A lot of sets can be BL'd easily. Not sure that matters. Little Jimmie wants his official Minecraft LEGO set in the original box. Logic doesn't apply. If it did I would not have sold sets for $100+.

Time will tell if a MC 2 comes out. Most any game can be upgraded, enhanced, etc. I think a MC 2 will be made.

Also, no offense taken. Patton said - if we're all thinking the same someone isn't thinking.

binaryeye

road.

madforLEGO said:

Video games have not had any original ideas since Doom came out and crippled the gaming world with 3 million different versions of the first person shooter.

Commercial video games, perhaps, but not all video games. Try some indie games; Hero Core, Hydorah, Knytt Stories, Spelunky, etc.

madforLEGO

My GF loves Spelunky and Plants Vs Zombies.
I like Spelunky too just not really adept to playing it at the moment
It is pretty interesting to see some of the indie games being better than what the mainstream producers make.
Again there are always exceptions to the rule, however most big manufacturers seem to use the first person shooter as a crutch instead of using their brains to come up with something different.