Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Billybrown

Ive been noticing larger more regular discounts in the UK for most Lego themes. I very rarely buy at RRP and most hav

Pitfall69 said:

^They have been on sale at Amazon and someone on here said that they were on clearance for $5 somewhere. I think it is a great little set. I don't know about the resale value if the set. It all depends if they remake Catwoman for the third time.

They were £5.95 at my local Tescos, pity they only had the 1 though, would have filled my boots.

Hardrada

rocao said:

2010's:
Already acheived lofty gains: UCS Millenium Falcon, Green Grocer, Grand Carousel, Taj Mahal
On their way, IMO: Imperial Flagship, QAR, Black Pearl, Emerald Night, Maersk Train, Dropship w/ AT-OT, Imperial Shuttle

Do you disagree with the profit potential of the last list of sets that are currently in the midst of this period which you assert is oversaturated?

Yeah, even some sets retired in or at the end of 2012 are already doing well. Maersk Train, the POTC ships, Shuttle Expedition, The Zombies, Diagon Alley, etc. Even Medieval Market Village which was available for a very long time is already climbing up slowly.

CCC

Dougout said:

Harry Potter will reboot at some point, probably within 5-10 years. People said Star Wars wouldn't continue but it has, indefinitely. The demand might not be as big as Star Wars right now, but wait until the younger fans get older and the true fans of Star Wars get bored from over-saturation. I also feel like Star Wars will be losing a good deal of fans to Star Trek which seems to be doing well right now.

Remember if they do a 20 year anniversary or something similar, there is the possibility that Lego will also do a re-release to tie in.

rocao said:

On their way, IMO: Imperial Flagship, Emerald Night.

In terms of the own-brand ones, they could be hit depending on what comes out in the future. Both are beautiful sets. But if a new large ship comes out, or a new classic steam train, then both have serious competitors. The others are fairly unique - I don't see anything competing with the Maersk train for example. That is what it is. Whereas Emerald Night is just a steam train. A beauty, but just a steam train.

jockosjungle

Presumably they stopped doing Harry Potter because the licence ran out, would be hefty to start it up again.

Legofanscott

CCC said:

Dougout said:

Harry Potter will reboot at some point, probably within 5-10 years. People said Star Wars wouldn't continue but it has, indefinitely. The demand might not be as big as Star Wars right now, but wait until the younger fans get older and the true fans of Star Wars get bored from over-saturation. I also feel like Star Wars will be losing a good deal of fans to Star Trek which seems to be doing well right now.

Remember if they do a 20 year anniversary or something similar, there is the possibility that Lego will also do a re-release to tie in.

rocao said:

On their way, IMO: Imperial Flagship, Emerald Night.

In terms of the own-brand ones, they could be hit depending on what comes out in the future. Both are beautiful sets. But if a new large ship comes out, or a new classic steam train, then both have serious competitors. The others are fairly unique - I don't see anything competing with the Maersk train for example. That is what it is. Whereas Emerald Night is just a steam train. A beauty, but just a steam train.

I wouldve thought if lego release a new steam train, demand for the EN would then go up as those who missed EN would want them both.

Pitfall69

^Yeah, that's the difference between a re release, a rehash and a set that is similar. Why would the EN go down if another steam engine came out?

jasor

^ I agree...the new sets that come out catch new interests, and then those people look back at what they missed, with renewed interest on those old sets. Happens all the time.

JamesJT

Will the release of 10236 raise the price of 8038?

CCC

Pitfall69 said:

^Yeah, that's the difference between a re release, a rehash and a set that is similar. Why would the EN go down if another steam engine came out?

Some people will want just one engine. They might be prepared to drop £180 on an EN if it was the only steam train around but if a £100 different one comes along, then they will go for that.

y2josh

rocao said:

2010's:
Already acheived lofty gains: UCS Millenium Falcon, Green Grocer, Grand Carousel, Taj Mahal
On their way, IMO: Imperial Flagship, QAR, Black Pearl, Emerald Night, Maersk Train, Dropship w/ AT-OT, Imperial Shuttle

Do you disagree with the profit potential of the last list of sets that are currently in the midst of this period which you assert is oversaturated?

Haven't you heard? People are sitting on GARAGEFULS of Imperial Shuttles. That set's a dud if ever I saw one. ;)

hoyatables

y2josh said:

rocao said:

2010's:
Already acheived lofty gains: UCS Millenium Falcon, Green Grocer, Grand Carousel, Taj Mahal
On their way, IMO: Imperial Flagship, QAR, Black Pearl, Emerald Night, Maersk Train, Dropship w/ AT-OT, Imperial Shuttle

Do you disagree with the profit potential of the last list of sets that are currently in the midst of this period which you assert is oversaturated?

Haven't you heard? People are sitting on GARAGEFULS of Imperial Shuttles. That set's a dud if ever I saw one. ;)

I can't figure out whether there is sarcasm here or not. As the IS is the only "investment" that I actually purchased (I bought some other sets ib soec but fully expect to open then at some point), I'd love to know what people are thinking. I was planning to see one or two this fall, and would love to know what to expect.

Seems to show a sale price between $375-425 on ebay right now.

The answer may be in here, but I probably lost it among the 17 pages on video games ;).

doriansdad

My model showed 10212 to hit $440 ~ xmas time this year. Beyond that is where the science stops and the art begins....nice looking UCS set....much nicer than SSD, B-Wing and the x-wing rehash wouldn't you agree?

hoyatables

^ I definitely agree about SSD and B Wing. I haven't built one yet myself. I have 2 and I am debating whether one or both will end up getting sold - it looks like such a fun build and everyone says so. At the end of the day, UCS sets tend not to excite me (Falcon being the exception that was totally worth it). I love big builds but prefer the playsets.

I may just hold off on selling #2 to see how the "art" works out. I'd be perfectly happy with $440 for the first one.

LegoFanTexas

doriansdad said:

My model showed 10212 to hit $440 ~ xmas time this year. Beyond that is where the science stops and the art begins....nice looking UCS set....much nicer than SSD, B-Wing and the x-wing rehash wouldn't you agree?

I think it will get closer to $500, but it will hit a lot of resistance there as resellers start to unload stock and discover that it isn't selling fast at that price. It may even come back down to $400 as resellers figure out that while 5 of them sold slowly at $500 makes sense, 50 of them do not.

prevere

I bought a couple and built one right away. I thank LFT for his comments long ago about not waiting to build something, especially if its value is subject to increase.

Legofanscott

The IS is a set that looks more like a big collectable model rather than a Lego model as apart from a few studs here and there it is pretty much totally SNOT.

Its also a set where i think they truly nailed it, there really isnt anything that could really be improved on it in my eyes unlike most UCS sets where there always seems like there is something that could be improved upon, the nose on the new x-wing being a good example.

were resellers really stocking up that much on this one? i always thought it was a set that never really got much hype surrounding its retirement

LegoFanTexas

prevere said:

I bought a couple and built one right away. I thank LFT for his comments long ago about not waiting to build something, especially if its value is subject to increase.

:) You bet... I'm having that problem right now with a number of sets that retired last year and I haven't built yet. Motorized Excavator, I'm looking at you! :)

madforLEGO

starwarfan77 said:

apparently #6858 vanished from my local stores :) overnight. till last week they were plenty in the aisle but this week its all gone. not sure if its AFOL hoarding on it or retailers taking it out. didn't even see any clearance on them.

Or if LEGO.com temporarily showed the Catwoman set as sold out that may have spiked the demand.
Right now I believe it is listed as out of stock and more due on a date.

madforLEGO

People have to remember that the more expensive the set the more likely it will go up.
The problem now is that TRU takes forever to sell out their stocks, mostly due to the fact the bump their prices during production and no one will pay them, and sometime raise their prices when something is no longer produced by LEGO.
I think the scary thing is that they appear to have sets like #4194 Whitecap bay from PoTC and #7066 for a long time at something like 80-90 bucks.
They had a ton of Technic Excavators where they were long gone everywhere else and that really was keeping prices down for that set.

mathew

^ Yes, the IS is not just a great Lego set, but a great looking model. The only thing is that I wish it had a ramp. It kind of makes the landing gear worthless as it looks much better with the wings in flight mode. A ramp would of also made reproducing scenes from the movies fun.

FenrisAkashi

^ This is still a very YMMV type of situation where I think old sets at TRU will be more of a "Hey look at the super deal I got on an EOL set I happen to run across" than an "oh I don't need to look for this EOL set on e-bay/BL....TRU will have them for sure..."

Pacific493

rocao said:

Do you disagree with the profit potential of the last list of sets that are currently in the midst of this period which you assert is oversaturated?

If you're talking about profit on an absolute dollar value basis, then no, I wouldn't because sets like EN and IF are reliably selling for 2x RRP or more. The difference is in the speed at which the sets have appreciated. Some of those sets appreciated very quickly (i.e., EN & IF). Others, however, have appreciated much more slowly. For example, the AT-OT is about 18 months post-EOL and is not yet reliably selling for 2x RRP. So even though that set may eventually sell for 2x RRP or more, it has a lower profit potential because of the time that money would have to remain invested in it to generate that profit.

The difference that I have seen over the past few years is the speed with which sets appreciate. It used to be that if I bought 6 different Star Wars sets from a given year, at least 3-4 of them would be selling for 2x RRP or more within the first 12 months of EOL. Now, sets are hovering between 1.5x and 2x RRP for much longer after EOL.

Hardrada

Here in my country 10212 Imperial Shuttle is still widely available at RRP which is about 340 USD. It's a hard sell given its price point.

y2josh

hoyatables said:

y2josh said:

rocao said:

2010's:
Already acheived lofty gains: UCS Millenium Falcon, Green Grocer, Grand Carousel, Taj Mahal
On their way, IMO: Imperial Flagship, QAR, Black Pearl, Emerald Night, Maersk Train, Dropship w/ AT-OT, Imperial Shuttle

Do you disagree with the profit potential of the last list of sets that are currently in the midst of this period which you assert is oversaturated?

Haven't you heard? People are sitting on GARAGEFULS of Imperial Shuttles. That set's a dud if ever I saw one. ;)

I can't figure out whether there is sarcasm here or not. As the IS is the only "investment" that I actually purchased (I bought some other sets ib soec but fully expect to open then at some point), I'd love to know what people are thinking. I was planning to see one or two this fall, and would love to know what to expect.

Seems to show a sale price between $375-425 on ebay right now.

The answer may be in here, but I probably lost it among the 17 pages on video games ;).

I would say my comment was dripping with sarcasm, but was also more of an inside-ish joke. So apologies for the confusion.

prevere

International shipping is another "under the radar" factor that plagues large set appreciation.

dougts

LegoFanTexas said:

prevere said:

I bought a couple and built one right away. I thank LFT for his comments long ago about not waiting to build something, especially if its value is subject to increase.

:) You bet... I'm having that problem right now with a number of sets that retired last year and I haven't built yet. Motorized Excavator, I'm looking at you! :)

same problem on the same set. I don't generally collect or build Technic so its not a huge deal to me if I do or don't build it at some point., but this one just looks like a lot of fun to build and use. if the price gain doesn't happen super fast, I will probably eventually break down and crack one open.

prevere

Maybe it's not so bad that one of my B-Wing TRU box has a hole. I can hear the set whispering to me.

LegoFanTexas

Pacific493 said:

If you're talking about profit on an absolute dollar value basis, then no, I wouldn't because sets like EN and IF are reliably selling for 2x RRP or more. The difference is in the speed at which the sets have appreciated. Some of those sets appreciated very quickly (i.e., EN & IF). Others, however, have appreciated much more slowly. For example, the AT-OT is about 18 months post-EOL and is not yet reliably selling for 2x RRP. So even though that set may eventually sell for 2x RRP or more, it has a lower profit potential because of the time that money would have to remain invested in it to generate that profit.

^ This is a very accurate assessment of what has happened with these three sets. In fact, EN and IF hit 2x RRP within 6 months of EOL, that was not expected since both sets were 25% off on Black Friday 2011 (plus the holiday set, plus the 10% off, plus VIP, making them very cheap).

I only had a half dozen AT-OT walkers, and you're right, they aren't selling for 2x RRP. I have 2 left. :)

prevere

WTS would be another to add to that fast-track list.

LegoFanTexas

^ Yes, WTS has done very well indeed... :)

The question becomes... has WTS seen the peak? Will it go higher this Christmas, or is the current price all it has in it?

Brickarmor

Dino Defense HQ is surprising. To me anyway. Wonder if it will be ~$200 by Xmas.

LegoFanTexas

Brickarmor said:

Dino Defense HQ is surprising. To me anyway. Wonder if it will be ~$200 by Xmas.

Yes, easily... kids love Dinos... they have for 20+ years, that won't change in 6 months. :)

cloaked7

I'll be glad with either $400 or $500 for my IS's. Course, $500 is better. The set has a lot going for it, so it will resell well. I think I have an average cost of $188 in the sets I have.

prevere

Sometimes when you open and actually build these expensive sets, you start to appreciate the true value (or lack thereof) of what you'd actually fork over for it. With IS, I would actually pay $400 for it.

LegoFanTexas

prevere said:

Sometimes when you open and actually build these expensive sets, you start to appreciate the true value (or lack thereof) of what you'd actually fork over for it. With IS, I would actually pay $400 for it.

Ditto, the set is indeed worth that, if you of course have the budget for it.

This s a set that is more than the sum of its parts.

rocao

Pacific493 said:

Others, however, have appreciated much more slowly. For example, the AT-OT is about 18 months post-EOL and is not yet reliably selling for 2x RRP. So even though that set may eventually sell for 2x RRP or more, it has a lower profit potential because of the time that money would have to remain invested in it to generate that profit.

The difference that I have seen over the past few years is the speed with which sets appreciate. It used to be that if I bought 6 different Star Wars sets from a given year, at least 3-4 of them would be selling for 2x RRP or more within the first 12 months of EOL. Now, sets are hovering between 1.5x and 2x RRP for much longer after EOL.

I considered not including 10195 Republic Dropship in the list, but I believe it will be a set that continues to climb steadily. It's true that it hasn't risen as quickly as the Emerald Night, but I think the starting price factors into that: it's easier for a set to go from $100 to $200 than it is for a set to go from $250 to $500 simply because the final cost is more prohibitive.

I also have in my notes that 10195 was available at four different times for $200 or less -- Amazon, Target, and Walmart each for $200, and ~$160 from LEGO stores during Black Friday 2011. If you factor this in, it's not lagging behind too much.

Opportunity cost definitely adds another wrinkle, but it's one that I omitted from the discussion for a few reasons. Not every seller is trying to quickly turn over inventory, and there isn't always a clear "safer" alternative to reinvest in. Earlier in this conversation, some people stated it was clearly a mistake to hold Indiana Jones sets beyond a couple years. I don't think that's necessarily the case. A couple years into retirement it was clear that there would be sustained interest for the theme and it wasn't likely to be obsoleted by new sets. Because of this, I think it's justifiable to hold that position rather than taking a risk on a new one.

rocao

prevere said:

WTS would be another to add to that fast-track list.

Definitely, and there are many other examples. I chose to make my list of the larger sets for ease of comparison.

Some other smaller sets from the past two years that allowed for 3x+ profit within a year:
5512 XXL bucket purchased for $30 at Walmart Black Friday
Minecraft bought at retail and sold during last holiday season
The Mine bought at the Walmart price mistake
Ice Dragon and Lloyd

hoyatables

FWIW, it seems to me that any assessment of price appreciation should consider the price at which the model was widely available. So for something like the IS, which was on sale in multiple places for around $200 at multiple times, I think the 2x mark should be set at $400. For something like the Death Star, which is more rarely on sale, perhaps you really need to look at $800 as the 2x price point.

LegoFanTexas

Lloyd was easy pickings, Ice Dragon was a surprise... to me at least. :)

5512 XXL bucket was just a give away from Walmart, nice, and I wish I could have bought all the store had, but it is more a gift from Walmart than anything else.

BTW, to take the other side of the coin, the comments regarding Star Wars are indeed true.

Look at 7962 - Podracers - it has been EOL 6 months and it is still 30% below RRP.

How about 7961 - Darth Maul's ship? Or 7964 Republic Frigate?

Those have not done well at all. Part of the problem of course is they were on sale forever from B@N and price matched at Amazon, and of course I'm sure they made a bucket load of those sets around the world.

There are indeed some duds... 8097 - Slave 1 has done pretty darn well, about 2x RRP

A lot of the small $20-30 sets haven't done much... there are exceptions, Mace Windu did well, Battle of Naboo is doing well, but many more just sit and sit...

--------

Do I have a point? Probably not, just avoiding work right now. :) I have several things to get done, but debating this is much more fun. :)

LegoFanTexas

hoyatables said:

FWIW, it seems to me that any assessment of price appreciation should consider the price at which the model was widely available. So for something like the IS, which was on sale in multiple places for around $200 at multiple times, I think the 2x mark should be set at $400. For something like the Death Star, which is more rarely on sale, perhaps you really need to look at $800 as the 2x price point.

That is a fair point...

Another point is... is 2x RRP before or after selling fees? Selling Death Star for $800 shipped nets you less than $700 after eBay fees and shipping. Now if you picked it up for $350 total delivered, great. If you paid $400 + sales tax, not so great.

doriansdad

60% return not great....lol.....we certainly have been spoiled by this market haven't we :)

LegoFanTexas

doriansdad said:

60% return not great....lol.....we certainly have been spoiled by this market haven't we :)

:)

Yes, maybe...

Of course, if you bought those sets in 2012, sell them in 2015, 3 years later... 60% return sounds nice, except you had to store those sets for 3 years with the risk of loss/damage, the risks of selling such expensive sets...

20% a year for all that... lousy deal in my opinion... why do you think I'm slowly trading away Death Stars? :)

Dougout

LegoFanTexas said:

prevere said:

I bought a couple and built one right away. I thank LFT for his comments long ago about not waiting to build something, especially if its value is subject to increase.

:) You bet... I'm having that problem right now with a number of sets that retired last year and I haven't built yet. Motorized Excavator, I'm looking at you! :)

My problem is saving certain sets I'm fond of and building others instead. I've only built Cafe Corner out of the modulars line and I'm still hoarding sets like IS and Emerald Night in a special build pile. I built DS and ME even though they weren't top picks for me and I ended up getting bored with the builds. I have less problem with opening the sets than I do with planning how and when to build. I keep telling myself someday I'm going to open all the modulars and build them all at once, but I don't see that happening, at least not in the near future. I really need to get over my stupid habits and just start ripping open the sets when I first get them. Maybe I'll come around someday.

prevere

Or just by "loose" ones on eBay. And sell your beautifully sealed ones. Yeah, sometimes the bricks are nicked up, but the price difference can be enormous.

madforLEGO

Pacific493 said:

rocao said:

Do you disagree with the profit potential of the last list of sets that are currently in the midst of this period which you assert is oversaturated?

If you're talking about profit on an absolute dollar value basis, then no, I wouldn't because sets like EN and IF are reliably selling for 2x RRP or more. The difference is in the speed at which the sets have appreciated. Some of those sets appreciated very quickly (i.e., EN & IF). Others, however, have appreciated much more slowly. For example, the AT-OT is about 18 months post-EOL and is not yet reliably selling for 2x RRP. So even though that set may eventually sell for 2x RRP or more, it has a lower profit potential because of the time that money would have to remain invested in it to generate that profit.

The difference that I have seen over the past few years is the speed with which sets appreciate. It used to be that if I bought 6 different Star Wars sets from a given year, at least 3-4 of them would be selling for 2x RRP or more within the first 12 months of EOL. Now, sets are hovering between 1.5x and 2x RRP for much longer after EOL.

AT-OT is also an example of the 'want' factor, as it has no original movies figures or any kind of Jedi or any other unique figures, it will not sell too well.
It is at its price now solely for those who are die hard collectors of SW LEGO in general, but I think the collectors who do not need every set think 'meh' to that one. DS will be another story all together though because demand for that set will far outweigh even the possible vast reseller stocks IMO.

Also, you have to take into account how over prices LEGO SW sets are, this really affects smaller sets.. Darth Maul sets are not doing well becasue the only time they sold was when they were on sale, the RRP was too much for that set IMO, same with the podracer set.

TheLoneTensor

Did I actually see someone comment that the EN will possibly lose value? That set will be one of the most successful sets to resell ever. It has not even come close to it's peak.

Pitfall69

^Yeah a long time ago

LegoFanTexas

tensor said:

Did I actually see someone comment that the EN will possibly lose value? That set will be one of the most successful sets to resell ever. It has not even come close to it's peak.

Perhaps, perhaps not... but it has seen its rapid rise I believe...

It will continue to go up, slowly... however the easy money has been made...

Pitfall69

There was a discussion about the Santa Fe Super Chief, BNSF, Maersk Train and Emerald Night awhile ago.

LegoFanTexas

The Super Chief and BNSF have the benefit of being "real" trains, being branded... Maersk has that same benefit, abit not nearly as well known in the USA, but still it looks very much like a modern loco.

Emerald Night is just beautiful, amazingly well done, looks "right" and the wheels and everything work. It has done well accordingly, but it isn't branded, they could do 5 more steam trains tomorrow and make EN less desirable.

Or that could just be me... I sold both Cafe Corner and Green Grocer because of the release of Palace Cinema. With 5 current modulars out right now, that is a nice "street", and the combined value of CC and GG, even used, exceeds the value of all 5 current modulars. I don't miss them.