Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

0909090

What do you guys think of http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=79111-1 is it a good investment? I'm thinking of buying 2 of these, one for myself and the other one I'll keep till its price will raise. I think The Lone Ranger sets might be a good investment since we haven't gotten Western theme in ages. And these film themes usually don't last long.

Bumblepants

^Trains are typically a safe bet but I would wait for two things before I considered investing in Lone Ranger. 1) Wait and see how successful the film is, will it get panned and disappear or will it be a big hit with kids and adults clamoring for more? and 2), a decent discount. Buying at RRP is never a good strategy for investment. These sets will be around at least until the end of the year, plenty of time to get some on sale or clearance after the holidays.

BuriedinBricks

Yeah, past Disney-movie related sets have been no stranger to frequent and often deep discounts.

I will say that the Train and the stagecoach look great.

prevere

^Agree, CT is good when discounts kick in. It's got a really high price per part ratio, 14.3 cents to be exact. Even at 30%, you're down to only 10 per piece.

1974

LegoFanTexas said:

It is quite possible that TLG is being positioned to be sold, that would make the family a lot of money if they could sell the whole thing for $10-20 Billion.

Running up revenue and profits and showing 30% growth is a good way to get private equity and hedgefunds to pay over-the-moon for a company.

Note: I'm not saying this is a good thing, just that it is a possible thing.

Not a chance. Family does not need any more money

LegoFanTexas

1974 said:

Not a chance. Family does not need any more money

No, perhaps not, but times change, attitudes change, people grow old, young people have new interests, etc.

Lets say TLG is earning $1 billion in profit a year now. Someone comes along and offers the family $15 billion in cash to sell.

That is 15 years of profit, up front, guaranteed, without having to work for it.

Maybe Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen isn't interested, but perhaps the rest of the family is, perhaps he gets out voted, perhaps he gets older and doesn't care as much, perhaps there are other bond holders we don't know about who have a vote.

Very few large companies are actually controlled by 1 person, usually it is a small group of people who have a vote, and often there are other stakeholders who get a vote for one reason or another.

Also, keep in mind that Kjeld is 65 years old, at some point it won't be his decision anymore. He has 3 children and 2 grandchildren, they may or may not want to continue with the whole thing.

There are very few family businesses that pass to a 4th generation, just how it is.

Dougout

^^
I was wondering about the family. I couldn't find much info on them.

LegoFanTexas said:

Dougout said:

I hope it goes. It is such a boring build. They have to have a better set lined up by now.

Boring? Now granted, it has been a year or two since I built mine, but I still think it remains to this day one of the finest LEGO sets I've ever built...

And I've built hundreds! :)

Some recent builds I enjoyed more was the Horizon Express, Sopwith Camel and B-wing. I thought the DS was so predictable, I mean wall piece after wall piece, the four giant supporting walls are the only things I feel I built. Then the plates that separate each layer weren't much fun, just repetitive. I had to stop like half way through. I view the DS like a giant construction set now, whereas the UCS models, trains and other sets I like I view as more engineered with usually better working parts. Looking at the DS, there is a lot going on, two working elevators, a bunch of play rooms, tons on figs and many other playable features, but as build I wasn't impressed much. :/

LegoFanTexas

Something else to consider...

George Lucas didn't need the money either when he sold out to Disney, in fact he donated most of the $4 Billion to charity. (and for that, I forgive him for Jar Jar)

It wasn't about the money, it was about being older and tired and wanting to take his foot off the gas, but also not wanting to see his creation die on the vine.

So by selling, he will see Star Wars continue on beyond himself, it creates a legacy, just like Walt Disney did. 50 years from now we may continue to see new movies and new stories in the Star Wars world thanks to this sale.

Perhaps the Christiansen family wants to see TLG continue on for another 50 years, but doesn't want to have the burden of doing it all themselves. Sell out to Disney, collect billions of dollars, and see the family legacy last beyond their own generation.

LegoFanTexas

Dougout said:

^^I thought the DS was so predictable, I mean wall piece after wall piece, the four giant supporting walls are the only things I feel I built. Then the plates that separate each layer weren't much fun, just repetitive.

DS is an amazing build to me for a few reasons:

1. The raw size/part count - in fairness, few sets have this much "stuff" to build and put together, it really is a large impressive set.

2. The completeness - consider that it has all the various scenes from both SW movies, building the trash compactor, seeing it come together, then how the cell block goes above it and you can fall from it to the trash compactor, is really cool. The part where Luke and Leia swing across the gap, it just feels very much like "home". :)

3. The manual, I love the high quality spiral bound manual, makes the set feel different and special, I wish more of the "big sets" had this.

Perhaps another reason is that it was an early build for me, so at the time I hadn't built many sets and perhaps it remains in my memory a bit more special because of that.

It would be interesting to see how I'd feel, if I built it today.

BrickDancer

^Ive also witnessed first hand how a fantastic family owned & managed company (biotech) can be totally destroyed in a short period of time when a Financial centric person is entrusted with the helm (the founding Father passed away and his 3 children were mostly not interested in the line of business). They lost their priorities and brand shortly there after when the operational management dissented and all resigned near simultaneously. This turmoil lasted 4-5 years until the ailing mother had enough and ousted the ill performing money guy and one of the sons is back at the helm trying to revive the family company and name. It's a risky endeavor to let someone else take control of the wheel, especially when they may not share the same philosophy and more focused on the financial aspects.

Dougout

It could be for the worse or the better. Reading briefly about Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen, it appears he was involved with Lego since HE was a kid. If none of the Kristiansen kids today have an interest in Lego, it might be for the best to sell. Most businesses don't continue down the family line forever because successive family members eventually lose drive, interest and inspiration or they never had them in the first place. It will be interesting to see how far Lego goes down the Kristiansen family tree.

On a side note, I remember heard Lucas would donate to educational charities. Is that what happened?

LegoFanTexas

Dougout said:

It could be for the worse or the better. Reading briefly about Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen, it appears he was involved with Lego since HE was a kid.

Yes, and he was CEO up until about 10 years ago, when he fired himself and brought someone else in from the outside once he figured out he wasn't the right person to run the company.

Dougout said:

On a side note, I remember heard Lucas would donate to educational charities. Is that what happened?

Yep:

http://www.geeksofdoom.com/2012/11/01/george-lucas-to-donate-most-of-his-4-billion-to-education-charity

Here is my favorite quote: (and it is SO true!)

"It’s scary to think of our education system as little better than an assembly line with producing diplomas as its only goal. Once I had the means to effect change in this arena, it became my passion to do so – to promote active, life-long learning. I believe in the artisan school of learning, through apprenticeships and Aristotelian questions and discussion. This level of engagement dates back to the beginning of human life, but it’s still the best way of doing things. There have to be universal standards – particularly in education – and while it seems unwieldy, there is a willingness among educators to share their best practices."

I personally did not do well in school, couldn't stand having to go at the pace of a fixed class, some things were easy, some were hard, but no account was made for that.

I have always done well 1-on-1, I'd much prefer to be an apprentice to a master. Open the firehose of knowledge, I'll let you know if it is too much.

dragonhawk

LegoFanTexas said:

I have always done well 1-on-1, I'd much prefer to be an apprentice to a master. Open the firehose of knowledge, I'll let you know if it is too much.

Rule of Two in the Sith order ? ;)

Diggydoes

prevere said:

^Agree, CT is good when discounts kick in. It's got a really high price per part ratio, 14.3 cents to be exact. Even at 30%, you're down to only 10 per piece.

Agree,the price per piece ratio is rather high,but don't forget that the set incl.rather expensive train pieces (like the buffers)plus a lot of train-tracks!!! So it's not like you'll be getting only 1x1 plates or some for your money here!!!
This set is a good example why the price-per-piece ratio is kinda stupid calculation!

lulwut

Here is my favorite quote: (and it is SO true!)

"It’s scary to think of our education system as little better than an assembly line with producing diplomas as its only goal. Once I had the means to effect change in this arena, it became my passion to do so – to promote active, life-long learning. I believe in the artisan school of learning, through apprenticeships and Aristotelian questions and discussion. This level of engagement dates back to the beginning of human life, but it’s still the best way of doing things. There have to be universal standards – particularly in education – and while it seems unwieldy, there is a willingness among educators to share their best practices."

Agreed. I graduated with a Engineering degree with absolutely no marketable engineering skills! Save for what, C++ that they make you take? You end up learning everything you need to know on the job.

Dougout

LegoFanTexas said:

Yep:

http://www.geeksofdoom.com/2012/11/01/george-lucas-to-donate-most-of-his-4-billion-to-education-charity

Here is my favorite quote: (and it is SO true!)

"It’s scary to think of our education system as little better than an assembly line with producing diplomas as its only goal. Once I had the means to effect change in this arena, it became my passion to do so – to promote active, life-long learning. I believe in the artisan school of learning, through apprenticeships and Aristotelian questions and discussion. This level of engagement dates back to the beginning of human life, but it’s still the best way of doing things. There have to be universal standards – particularly in education – and while it seems unwieldy, there is a willingness among educators to share their best practices."

I personally did not do well in school, couldn't stand having to go at the pace of a fixed class, some things were easy, some were hard, but no account was made for that.

I have always done well 1-on-1, I'd much prefer to be an apprentice to a master. Open the firehose of knowledge, I'll let you know if it is too much.

Yes, what a great and true quote. The system is far too focused on producing obedient people in fields that are already filled up. Discussions are rarely done. Mostly, sets amount of material for an instructor is given to somehow imbed it into the brains of 30+ kids. Then endless tests and quizzes given, and the students results are supposed to show how "smart" that person is. I find it very inefficient and not even close to the true definition of learning or teaching. There's little enthusiasm, the material can be monotonous and students truly THIRSTY for knowledge can be lost into thinking repetition is knowledge.

I stopped going to college after three years because expenses got so high. I study programming and some hardware and work on programs with some freinds (some graduated, some haven't), but no projects have really gotten us far yet. Studying on my own I can better see the failures and successes in school. Some teachers knew a ton, but can't teach very well. 1 on 1 learning would be prime, TA's do this a lot and I see a huge amount of success in individual teaching.

DwarfSleepy

LegoFanTexas said:

Dougout said:

[...]
I personally did not do well in school, couldn't stand having to go at the pace of a fixed class, some things were easy, some were hard, but no account was made for that.

I have always done well 1-on-1, I'd much prefer to be an apprentice to a master. Open the firehose of knowledge, I'll let you know if it is too much.

One word: Montessori

LegoFanTexas

DwarfSleepy said:

One word: Montessori

Amen...

My three kids have been in Montessori, my younger two are still in it, wonderful program, wish mainstream schools took some of those ideas and used them.

mathew

Dougout said:

Yes, what a great and true quote. The system is far too focused on producing obedient people in fields that are already filled up.

The system is outdated. My parents (mid-60's) got their college degrees and found employment immediately upon graduation. It doesn't work that way anymore. Today many colleges have turned into diploma mills. Manufacturing jobs have dried up forcing those who in the past would not have attended college to enroll. And then there's the employers who don't want to train. They just expect you to have ten years of experience and know everything the first day on the job.

Pitfall69

Wow!!! Another topic off track. I am absolutely amazed :) It is refreshing once in awhile.

I'm very concerned about my children's future education.

Farmer_John

I have to agree that our education system is a "charity." I also happen to believe that if we took government out of the education business, natural market forces would proverbially "step in" and clean things up. Education vouchers would be a great start...

Brickarmor

Look. It's a bird. It's a plane. It's a Death Star EOLing.

My kid's home schooled.

doriansdad

Farmer_John said:

I have to agree that our education system is a "charity." I also happen to believe that if we took government out of the education business, natural market forces would proverbially "step in" and clean things up. Education vouchers would be a great start...

Yep that is one thing I believe Romney had right. Give the parents $20k per year for each child in an education account (what the Fed govt currently spends per school age child). Let the parents decide where the child learns. We homeschool and currently receive nothing. The best schools would get the most customers and be able to expand. Those lacking would have to change or shut their doors. No more geographical boundaries or riduclous standardized testing. Currently IMO the public school system is nothing more than glorified daycare set up so both parents can work and incur/pay debt.

mathew

doriansdad said:

Yep that is one thing I believe Romney had right. Give the parents $20k per year for each child in an education account (what the Fed govt currently spends per school age child). Let the parents decide where the child learns.

Or what the child learns.... What about the parents who just pocket the money and then do a lousy job of home "schooling"? I think teacher unions are too powerful, but other than that it's more re-thinking the system. Focus more heavily on math, science and language early on. Not everyone is going to be great at it though. Not everyone is meant to be a computer scientist.

Listen, I think most of us would agree that if you take the urban element out of the equation, the system isn't that bad off. It's the inner city schools that are in dire straits and probably always will be. There are many non-PC answers unfortunately.

AvengerDr

If you remove the State completely out of the equation, then you get something like this, where kids are brainwashed as in the worst of the Coranic "schools" and similar "institutions".

samiam391

Predictions on varying education and children's secondary university education?

Anyone want to get back to talking about LEGO? ;o)

Is there any insight into #9467 The Ghost Train? I picked up a few on clearance but am considering returning them, as I see that an incredible amount across the country have been purchased on clearance.

Brickarmor

I was going to say that there's not much interesting EOL talk this time of year, hence the education (and lack thereof) tangents, but I like the Ghost Train as a set. I don't think it's going to skyrocket by Christmas or anything, but it is undeniably unique. 2-3 years from now (once most have been flipped) it might cut a finer figure. Don't quote me on that. Lego may do nothing similar in the future, unlike the other incessant rehashes. This may also be our only chance to get a hearse driven by a zombie that throws a vampire out of a coffin and through the roof... made by Lego!!

pharmjod

I bought every Vampyre Castle I could find at $69 and several of the other smaller sets, but I haven't bought a single Ghost Train. I won't touch it until I can get it for half off or less and even then I'll probably just buy a couple. Or I just won't get it.

TheLoneTensor

pharmjod said:

I bought every Vampyre Castle I could find at $69 and several of the other smaller sets, but I haven't bought a single Ghost Train. I won't touch it until I can get it for half off or less and even then I'll probably just buy a couple. Or I just won't get it.

Dunno man, the ghost train's uniqueness just might make it a sleeper hit.

Farmer_John

AvengerDr said:

If you remove the State completely out of the equation, then you get something like this, where kids are brainwashed as in the worst of the Coranic "schools" and similar "institutions".

If you keep the state in the equation, then you get something like this, where kids are bullied by fellow "state educated" students and decide to take it out on them...something I've yet to see happen at a "home school."

My home-schooled daughter is graduating two years early, has AP'd out of almost a year of college, has received scholarship offers from large universities, and has better interpersonal skills than any "state educated" student I've met. The last time she embarrassed me in public was when she went screaming through Wallyworld at the age of three.

I think kids have the best chance when they are allowed to pursue what interests them (at home or in a public school)...not be forced into latest "flavor of the week" as determined by government educational policy makers. Remember...they're our kids; not the governments kids!

Additionally, all of our kids have the best chance of becoming VIP card carrying AFOLs because we have always used Lego sets (and lately CMFs) to reward good behavior. :-)

And now back to your regularly scheduled program...

Basta

The Ghost Train #9467 is by far the MF set I see the most siting on shelves these days. In Australia over the last two months all (baring the smallest sets) the MF sets have been on clearance. Ghost Trains are pretty much all I see left.

It could be that they were over produced or overpriced ($120rrp) or it could just be that the other sets (Excluding the castle) once put on clearance were priced (<$50, train was $70) at a point where the average customer is willing to impulse buy.

Brickarmor

I was hoping to get some Trains at half off once WM marked them down to $54. Nope: all gone within a week. Probably 30-35 sets across different stores.

RomanticWarrior

Hate to say it, bug I think the Ghost Train is somewhat hurt by not having any exclusive minifigs, after the Ghost polybag was released. I love the set, and I think it will do okay over time, but not spectacularly.

pharmjod

tensor said:

Dunno man, the ghost train's uniqueness just might make it a sleeper hit.

Or it could end up like #6497. Only time will tell. I would like to get one, just because I like the theme in general and would like to have a complete series. I still just feel like $54 is overpriced for it. $40 just seems about right for the set. It is not going to break my heart if I miss one regardless.

y2josh

mathew said:

Dougout said:

Yes, what a great and true quote. The system is far too focused on producing obedient people in fields that are already filled up.

The system is outdated. My parents (mid-60's) got their college degrees and found employment immediately upon graduation. It doesn't work that way anymore. Today many colleges have turned into diploma mills. Manufacturing jobs have dried up forcing those who in the past would not have attended college to enroll. And then there's the employers who don't want to train. They just expect you to have ten years of experience and know everything the first day on the job.

I feel like, probably within the last ten or fifteen years, most colleges have adopted a big business sort of attitude where it's less advantageous to actually teach and more advantageous to 'sell' an education, so to speak.

I know when I was doing my undergraduate (back at the turn of the century), it at least seemed like I had to work for the grades I got... and tuition was dirt cheap to boot. When I went back to pursue my Masters and Ph.D., it was pretty clear the mantra had shifted, with a disproportionate percentage of the student body making the Dean's list. For myself, I felt I was having to put forth significantly less effort to achieve the grades I had worked my tail off to receive less than a decade earlier... and to top it all off, tuition had more than QUADRUPLED in just under eight years.

Retrospectively, (and this makes logical sense, even if it bugs me) this business-like attitude for higher education seems closely tied to the shift from 'a diploma will give you the edge in the job search' to 'a diploma is required if you want even the most basic job.' It's not an attitude I'm particularly fond of, but at this point, it would be a hard thing to walk back from...

Also, just to be sage... blah blah blah LEGO.

Pitfall69

^Did you get your Ph.D? SSD is big? I decided that experience was far better than a diploma. Really? The Death Star is EOL??? It was the best move I ever made and several good business decisions have set me up pretty good. I don't think the Ghost Train will do that well. Lego Lego Lego. Denver sucks. Lego Lego...

CircleK

I've been struggling with the ghost train purchase as well. I found a stash at wm for $54 but haven't pulled the trigger on any yet. I may end up buying at least one if they are still there tomorrow. I do think it will do well in its after life bc the Monster Fighters theme in general seems to have a wide reaching appeal. I've heard of several non collectors buying them just bc they like the sets and the classic monster figures. The train, the castle, and the HH all make for great Halloween displays as well. It won't break my heart if I miss it, but I won't be bummed if I get one at 54 and it ends up being a stinker either.

I had the same hunch with the target exclusive zombie set but shook it off and didn't buy any. I just BL'ed the zombie figs instead. I've regretted that decision every since.

y2josh

Pitfall69 said:

^Did you get your Ph.D? SSD is big? I decided that experience was far better than a diploma. Really? The Death Star is EOL??? It was the best move I ever made and several good business decisions have set me up pretty good. I don't think the Ghost Train will do that well. Lego Lego Lego. Denver sucks. Lego Lego...

Well... that was very 'Mrs. Dalloway' of you.

Pitfall69

I'm not much of a novel reader so...

CCC

Farmer_John said:

If you keep the state in the equation, then you get something like this, where kids are bullied by fellow "state educated" students and decide to take it out on them...something I've yet to see happen at a "home school."

For that kids also need access to these which happens in countries like this due to people in groups like this.

Farmer_John

CCC said:

For that kids also need access to these which happens in countries like this due to people in groups like this.

You forgot these guys who glamorize it in the first place, and these guys who glory in the aftermath.

Personally, I like the trains and plan to try and grab a couple more Ghost Trains...if nothing more than for parts. There are several glow-in-the-dark pieces that I particularly like... If you can find it for less than $50, I would jump on it (at least I plan to).

AvengerDr

Oh come on, it's only common sense that if those guys or anyone involved in a mass shooting only had access to a knife then he'd at best be able to kill one, maybe two if s/he was extraordinarily quick or skilled - before being subdued.

You are american, I am european (italian). We have different world views in this regard (I'm a strenuous supporter of Thomas Jefferson's ideals in all other regards), let's leave it at that.

Back on topic, I made the unfortunate choice of buying 2x 10215 (hey they were almost half-price :D). How long do I need to wait before I can off-load them? Does anybody want them at £90 ? :D

jasor

^^ the parts are really varied on the train, i agree. I may pick up another one for a $50 spot just for those. I know it hasnt lept off the shelves at full RRP, but I know a few nonFOLs (or future FOLs I like to call them) that ended up getting the train for display quality around Halloween time.

I agree with @tensor ... it may be a sleeper hit down the road.

doriansdad

AvengerDr said:

Back on topic, I made the unfortunate choice of buying 2x 10215 (hey they were almost half-price :D). How long do I need to wait before I can off-load them? Does anybody want them at £90 ? :D

Well 10215 retired twice. I am not sure if you bought it on the first round or second. There have been a few sets with fake retirements or unintended shortages....always check the values after those periods for a big hint on where the set will ultimately go. Unfortunately 10215 is viewed as a very poor set (personally I like the system scale much better). To make a good decision work out the opportunity cost of holding on to them. If you can make more money elsewhere it is time to let them loose at current market value and chalk it up to experience.

Brickarmor

Before it goes any further: PLEASE do not turn a few comments on children's education into an excuse to argue about guns. PLEASE. Taxes (the collection and allocation thereof) or football (soccer :-) ) are one thing, but the gun issue, especially now, is far too volatile. Agree or disagree with the few comments already made, this is not the place to retort, nobody will have a change of heart, everyone will just make everyone else sick and furious. Let's move along. Quietly.

The Monster Fighters line seems to have a fair amount of AFOL appeal (certainly not on par with SW or Modulars), and the continuation of 10228 should help interest linger. It is, as far as I can tell, one of the first overtly "dark" Lego themes, which may endear it to campy types. Maybe I just really like it, but it's hard for me to see it as a forgettable one-and-done like so many in the closet. I mean, so many in the past. The sets are both playable and displayable (maybe not Crazy Scientist), and unless something gets resurrected this Halloween, it will be at least a few years before the theme is revisited.

Hardrada

I think the Ghost Train won't be a really good investment. (Unless you get it for a very low price.) That set seems to be moving the slowest from the MF sets. I think the most popular ones are the Castle and the Hearse, I'd rather invest in those. (Assuming I could get all MF sets at a similar discount.)

Farmer_John

Who's seeing what prices and where for the Ghost Train? I noticed the $54 at WM mentioned above. Anywhere else have a better price? If I can get $54 with tax as shipping, I will do it...

AvengerDr

doriansdad said:

Well 10215 retired twice. I am not sure if you bought it on the first round or second. There have been a few sets with fake retirements or unintended shortages....always check the values after those periods for a big hint on where the set will ultimately go. Unfortunately 10215 is viewed as a very poor set (personally I like the system scale much better). To make a good decision work out the opportunity cost of holding on to them. If you can make more money elsewhere it is time to let them loose at current market value and chalk it up to experience.

I bought it from one of the European Amazons and at the time it was close to being half the UK price. I guess I'll wait around Christmas, if it doesn't work out then I'll just part it out..

TheLoneTensor

Brickarmor said:

The sets are both playable and displayable (maybe not Crazy Scientist).

The Crazy Scientist set is actually one of my favorite MF sets and honestly one of the most playable with the sliding table, flashing lightning mechanism, etc. Like the Ghost Train, it didn't appeal to me at first, but once I built it, it is very good. Plus lots of scientific and glowing trinkets.

LEGOYODA

The ghost train is a hard one to predict - It could go 1 of 2 ways be a seasonal wanted set (like the Christmas train) when retired after a few years for halloween or like the toy story 3 train which sells for about retail now on Ebay. I think it will fall in between both but Amazon has had them really cheep for a while and Walmart just clearanced many of these out so I'm thinking it won't go up o much at EOL. However, how many were bought for resale vs. just to open up and build/play I was able to find 2 at $34 at Walmart..so I took a chance and may build one to go with my vampire castle, which in my opinion is an AMAZING set :) The train doesn't wow me like the vampire castle does though...