Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

binaryeye

LegoFanTexas said:

^ For that matter, the new X-Wing and B-Wing don't have "Ultimate Collector's Series" printed on the box either. :)

Well, I was referring to the old X-Wing vs. new X-Wing. But since I didn't quote that, it obviously wasn't clear.

In any case, I don't understand why a collector would be worried about new models of vehicles that have already been done. If the interest is actually collecting, it shouldn't matter whether the old version is devalued by a new version.

BrickDancer

mathew said:

BrickDancer said:

^^TLG can choose to destroy their UCS brand among true collectors if they wish, that's their prerogative. But if 1 more single rehash happens, I'm bailing from the line completely.

Eh, I don't agree. You should be buying the UCS sets because they are great sets to build and display. Not as an investment. If you're upset that the X-Wing was "rehashed"... well then don't buy it. Did you buy the B-Wing before it was clearanced out? If not then don't complain.

@mathew think I've been down this road with you before, but I enjoy company on long commutes :)

Yes I did buy the B-Wing during this sale, one for my personal UCS Collection (Have all except the SSD now, waiting for a good sale on it). So I meet prerequisites to comment on this theme I hold near and dear. So if I may, ahem:

1) Disclosure: Most of my collection ($35K-$40K) is personal with a portion allocated to resell (~$13K). So more hobbyist that seller POV. And I certainly buy the sets that are attractive in looks and build experience, money be damned.

2) If I have a complete UCS collection aside from the duplicate X-Wing, then I'm inclined to buy the new one for completeness sake even if I feel it's inferior to #7191.

3) My qualm with the rehash of the X-Wing is not the drop in my older X-Wing's value as I don't ever plan on selling it, so unhappiness is not from that point. It's not always about money, especially when it comes to matters of passion, when the inverse is usually true.

4) I was hoping for a new vehicle or character that hasn't been done before in UCS. We only get 2 releases a year and we got hosed for this half of 2013 with a rehashed vehicle.

5) Criticism is sometimes warranted and not always from a selfish/biased point of view. Nothing is black & white, just shades of gray. Many folks who missed out on the first UCS X-Wing or unwilling/unable to pay the current market price will be very happy to have a chance at owning one now. But again, this is a biased view from the wanton fan. The only objective view is to look at the collection as a whole over the past 14 years and then tell me if a rehash X-Wing is what you would expect for slot #20.

http://www.brickset.com/browse/themes/?theme=Star Wars&subtheme=Ultimate Collector Series

BrickDancer

@Paperballpark System scale sets for City and Star Wars get rehashed all the time, which is not a problem. It's when they rehash the Exclusives that it becomes a problem. Themes or sets such as Modulars, Sculptures, Expert Creator, Trains and formerly the UCS line. Only a few exceptions within these lines such as the Maersk Container Ship re-release, X-Wing, Sopwith Camel scaled-up 2nd version. Can you imagine the IF, EN, Taj Mahal or Cafe Corner get rehashed or rereleases? (shivers)

@Farmer_John I foresee the older UCS sets will continue their trend upwards. Even in the past 1.5 years, I've seen noticeable increases for the AT-ST, TIE Advanced and lots of movement for the Snowspeeder still. The promo figs of Chrome Vader and White Boba (~50% increase in past 1 year) show continues strong growth in SW line for older stuff. New market growth will keep pushing up the old, but not so sure what will happen with the newer stuff since volume was most likely increased to offset the customer base increase over past and next couple years.

Dougout

Is there any other evidence TLG would think about selling? Large profits don't necessarily mean a company wants to sell. I think it's the opposite, now they have more leverage to do what they want, selling seems it would be a last resort. To my understanding, a majority of their new revenue comes from themes like Ninjago, Freinds and Chima. Those hit big audiences, a much more expanded audience then they had before.

Maybe I'm just being skeptical, but I really hope TLG is not expanding to fast to remain stable. I'm not sure of the owners or their intentions with the company, but TLG seems like it has a decent set of morals. I think it should remain where it is to keep competition fair.

Paperballpark

binaryeye said:

That said, such a label doesn't translate to "This will be the only large scale set of this subject ever produced by LEGO."

This is exactly what I'm meaning.

@BrickDancer The difference between Star Wars and the Modular Buildings/Large Scale Models is that Star Wars has a limited number of ships/vehicles etc in the canon. It stands to reason that TLG will eventually run out of decent ships etc to do UCS models of and will then need to start re-doing some. With the Modular Buildings/Large Scale Models there are no real constraints like that.

Besides which, UCS models are released at least twice a year, whereas Modulars are once a year and Large Scale seem to be once every 2 or 3 years at the moment.

mathew

BrickDancer said:

mathew said:

BrickDancer said:

^^TLG can choose to destroy their UCS brand among true collectors if they wish, that's their prerogative. But if 1 more single rehash happens, I'm bailing from the line completely.

Eh, I don't agree. You should be buying the UCS sets because they are great sets to build and display. Not as an investment. If you're upset that the X-Wing was "rehashed"... well then don't buy it. Did you buy the B-Wing before it was clearanced out? If not then don't complain.

@mathew think I've been down this road with you before, but I enjoy company on long commutes :)

Yes I did buy the B-Wing during this sale, one for my personal UCS Collection (Have all except the SSD now, waiting for a good sale on it). So I meet prerequisites to comment on this theme I hold near and dear. So if I may, ahem:

Ah, but you waited to buy the B-Wing until it was on sale. If you were a hard core collector you would purchased the set when it was initially released. Now, are you going to complain ten years from now if the B-Wing is "rehashed" as another large, expensive set? If anything the B-Wing's flop is all the more reason why Lego needed to "rehash" the X-Wing if anything to keep the UCS line profitable. Without the X-Wing being a success Lego could very well discontinue the whole UCS line.

prevere

I'm happy Lego has redone the X-Wing UCS to allow people the opportunity to get one for $200. I've rebuilt and sold a few of the first X-Wing UCS. But it's unlikely that many of are still holding onto sealed ones to sell. Those people have had years to make a killing on that.

Tevans333

BrickDancer said:

mathew said:

BrickDancer said:

^^TLG can choose to destroy their UCS brand among true collectors if they wish, that's their prerogative. But if 1 more single rehash happens, I'm bailing from the line completely.

Eh, I don't agree. You should be buying the UCS sets because they are great sets to build and display. Not as an investment. If you're upset that the X-Wing was "rehashed"... well then don't buy it. Did you buy the B-Wing before it was clearanced out? If not then don't complain.

@mathew think I've been down this road with you before, but I enjoy company on long commutes :)

Yes I did buy the B-Wing during this sale, one for my personal UCS Collection (Have all except the SSD now, waiting for a good sale on it). So I meet prerequisites to comment on this theme I hold near and dear. So if I may, ahem:

1) Disclosure: Most of my collection ($35K-$40K) is personal with a portion allocated to resell (~$13K). So more hobbyist that seller POV. And I certainly buy the sets that are attractive in looks and build experience, money be damned.

2) If I have a complete UCS collection aside from the duplicate X-Wing, then I'm inclined to buy the new one for completeness sake even if I feel it's inferior to #7191.

3) My qualm with the rehash of the X-Wing is not the drop in my older X-Wing's value as I don't ever plan on selling it, so unhappiness is not from that point. It's not always about money, especially when it comes to matters of passion, when the inverse is usually true.

4) I was hoping for a new vehicle or character that hasn't been done before in UCS. We only get 2 releases a year and we got hosed for this half of 2013 with a rehashed vehicle.

5) Criticism is sometimes warranted and not always from a selfish/biased point of view. Nothing is black & white, just shades of gray. Many folks who missed out on the first UCS X-Wing or unwilling/unable to pay the current market price will be very happy to have a chance at owning one now. But again, this is a biased view from the wanton fan. The only objective view is to look at the collection as a whole over the past 14 years and then tell me if a rehash X-Wing is what you would expect for slot #20.

http://www.brickset.com/browse/themes/?theme=Star Wars&subtheme=Ultimate Collector Series

To be honest, I don't think it's fair to expect LEGO to cater to the very small portion of it's market that collects a complete line such as UCS. I would wager that the market for a "rehashed" X-wing is quite large (much much larger, then the amount of people that would be put off by a rehash), and is a very reasonable choice after 13 years!

prevere

And now for something completely different ...

At my surprise, I noticed one of the first Friends series sets to retire, 3187 Butterfly Beauty Shop, has nearly already doubled from $25 to almost $50. Just sayin'.

jcb193

I'm not familiar with the new x-wing. Is it that much better? I think that most Lego sets (especially minfigs) have come a long way in the last few years (just look at early Harry potter versus the last series). But I don't think they should reissue unless there is a significant improvement. There are still plenty of interesting ships to do (cloud car, giant landspeeder, jawa crawler, at at, slave, Jabba ship, anakin pod racer, lightsaber model, Han pistol, emperor bust, etc etc.

BrickDancer

^But that was my point on Point #5, I'm biased and so are the fans of the new X-Wing. The UCS collection should be viewed objectively as a whole. When you look at it like that, without all the money, profit & resell nonsense, then you would see little rationale as to why it deserved to be rehashed.

As you're saying yourself @mathew, the X-Wing was a guaranteed profitable success on concept alone. But that is again viewing its value upon its sales potential, instead of its intrinsic value as a build or addition to the UCS line on merits of creativity or demand.

And last year when it was released, I was still focused on the backlog of UCS sets I needed and picked up R2 instead. Hence it waited a few months for this May 4th. Was hoping to finish it off with a SSD too, but that wasn't in the cards. So lets just say I have a healthy penchant for SW and building sets from other themes. We are all hobbyists one in the same :)

cloaked7

prevere said:

And now for something completely different ... At my surprise, I noticed one of the first Friends series sets to retire, 3187 Butterfly Beauty Shop, has nearly already doubled from $25 to almost $50. Just sayin'.

Interesting. I thought Friends would do well. They are rarely in stock. Like Ninjago it is a theme unfamiliar to me and I didn't have a 'feel' for it, so I didn't buy any of the sets. I have to pick and choose what I buy.

y2josh

mathew said:

BrickDancer said:

mathew said:

BrickDancer said:

^^TLG can choose to destroy their UCS brand among true collectors if they wish, that's their prerogative. But if 1 more single rehash happens, I'm bailing from the line completely.

Eh, I don't agree. You should be buying the UCS sets because they are great sets to build and display. Not as an investment. If you're upset that the X-Wing was "rehashed"... well then don't buy it. Did you buy the B-Wing before it was clearanced out? If not then don't complain.

@mathew think I've been down this road with you before, but I enjoy company on long commutes :)

Yes I did buy the B-Wing during this sale, one for my personal UCS Collection (Have all except the SSD now, waiting for a good sale on it). So I meet prerequisites to comment on this theme I hold near and dear. So if I may, ahem:

If anything the B-Wing's flop is all the more reason why Lego needed to "rehash" the X-Wing if anything to keep the UCS line profitable. Without the X-Wing being a success Lego could very well discontinue the whole UCS line.

I'm trying to remember if they discontinued the line or turned to an uninspired rehash after the Imperial Star Destroyer flopped... or after the Death Star II flopped... or after the Millennium Falcon flopped...

jcb193 said:

I'm not familiar with the new x-wing. Is it that much better?

In a word: No.

In four words: It's actually significantly worse.

Having now built the set myself, I can safely say it's a pretty mediocre model, and even less attractive sitting next to 7191. That said, the wing mechanism is actually pretty brilliant, but the rest of the set is just 'meh.' The stickers on the cockpit are especially atrocious and, even if placed perfectly, still look really bad.

But yes. If you missed the original or weren't into LEGO at the time, this is a passable model... but there are better UCS sets currently available that I'd recommend first.

Legofanscott

The front nose on the model looks wayyyyyy better on the old one even if it is alot blockier

It looks as though they concentrated far to much on the rear of the model and neglected the front

cloaked7

Legofanscott said:

It looks as though they concentrated far to much on the rear of the model...

So, you're saying it has a nice booty? :-)

Legofanscott

cloaked7 said:

Legofanscott said:

It looks as though they concentrated far to much on the rear of the model...

So, you're saying it has a nice booty? :-)

Yes :D

Looks like thats the best thing its got going for it, but they totally ruined it with the nose.

Bandit

mathew said:

Ah, but you waited to buy the B-Wing until it was on sale. If you were a hard core collector you would purchased the set when it was initially released. Now, are you going to complain ten years from now if the B-Wing is "rehashed" as another large, expensive set? If anything the B-Wing's flop is all the more reason why Lego needed to "rehash" the X-Wing if anything to keep the UCS line profitable. Without the X-Wing being a success Lego could very well discontinue the whole UCS line.

Incorrect. I am as hardcore a collector as there is, but I'm not stupid. I waited to pick up my b-wing until now as well, and am certainly glad I did. Why wouldn't I wait to pick up a set for 6 months to a year, when I know it will likely be 20% or more off at some point in that span? It's worth saving that $50+ to me to wait a while. I'm not in a hurry and have the required impulse control to handle waiting. In fact, I might argue that actually makes me *more* hardcore.

The last exclusive set I got on launch day, errr actually *pre-order* launch day -- which was 6 months *before* actual launch day, was 10179, because I wanted to make sure I got a numbered first edition.

prevere

And new X-Wing doesn't use Belville pots as engines. Yeah.

jcb193

"The stickers on the cockpit are especially atrocious and, even if placed perfectly, still look really bad."

Just noticed this....uggg...First off, the Palace Cinema gets loaded down with stickers, and now a UCS model!

Farmer_John

^Cost savings for TLG. Maybe they are doing everything they can to fatten the P&L sheet to sell the company...very interesting.

tmgm528

#Farmer_John Interesting Indeed.....

#jcb193 I don't if I'm just weird or not but i really don't have much against stickers. I bet if half of the parts they have as stickers now were printed instead Lego prices would be significantly higher. If it keeps costs lower and even adds some more detail we couldn't normally get on sets I'm fine with it. And we get beautiful back, leg and occasionally hip printing so....no complaining here.

mathew

Legofanscott said:

The front nose on the model looks wayyyyyy better on the old one even if it is alot blockier

It looks as though they concentrated far to much on the rear of the model and neglected the front

I agree that the blocky nose looks better. They tried to make it look less "lego-ey" with the stream lined look. It looks like a bad celebrity nose job.

dougts

^ and ^^ agree to disagree. the new nose, while it could be improved, looks significantly better than the old one.

jcb193

I just don't like the randomness factor of stickers. If you mis-attach them, if they warp, if you get bubbles. I even had a brand new Millenium Falcon set that had warped stickers, and it was NIB.

Off topic:
That said, I have to say the thought of a Disney-Lego purchase would be insane. Can you imagine the synergy? Not only could they revamp Indiana Jones, make Star Wars better, but you can you imagine the potential of Mickey Mouse legos, Little Mermaid legos, etc etc. It's almost too obvious.

Brickarmor

Maybe I'm just plain misanthropic, but the thought of a Disneyfied Lego makes me queasy. PG-13 or not.

y2josh

jcb193 said:

"The stickers on the cockpit are especially atrocious and, even if placed perfectly, still look really bad."

Just noticed this....uggg...First off, the Palace Cinema gets loaded down with stickers, and now a UCS model!

To be fair, the UCS models have had them in the past... and I don't have anything against stickers in general (though I certainly prefer printed pieces), but the stickers applied to clear parts have always been a major bone of contention for me, especially large ones like this that are likely to pick up air bubbles.

BrickDancer

^UCS sets with most stickers are the Rebel Blockade, X-Wing, Y-Wing and Snowspeeder. Now go and look up the market prices for these sticker sheets and you'll be shocked. Next up for non-UCS is the AT-OT Dropship, one of my favorite sets of all time, that has a very nice sticker sheet. Similar goes for the Republic Gunship #7676 and to lesser extent AT-TE #7675.

LegoFanTexas

^ Yes, but #7676 and #7675 are taking a dive in value, since their replacements are due soon.

It's ok, I'm actually glad those are getting redone, I have both built on a shelf, kept safe because they were expensive. Now I've taken them down and given them to my 7 year old son to play with.

He was like, "Dad, those are fragile and expensive, I don't want to break them!".

I replied, "Son, it's ok, they are reissuing them, they are now yours to enjoy, have fun."

Having their value come down actually takes some pressure off and makes it easier to just hand the sets to my son and let him actually play with them and have fun with them, which is the whole point of LEGO in the first place!

I'm amazingly at peace with this, more so than I would have been last year.

Renny

Must be like Christmas in your home whenever word of a re-issue is found ;)

LegoFanTexas

:) I finally figured out why my son wasn't having as much fun with LEGO the past few months. Turns out, too many sets were "off-limits" and he understands the value of them, so he doesn't want to lose any parts or break anything.

What happened was I was taking all the fun out of it. Well, I can fix that right up! I even gave him the AT-OT walker from the Republic Dropship set so that he could have a grand battle with it, Clone Turbo Tank, and AT-TE.

Of course, the AT-OT is now loaded for bear with everyone from Ninjago, so perhaps it crossed over to fight Lord Garmadon! :)

Renny

Wow, his reaction must have been priceless getting all those big sets at once :) Very nice.

LegoFanTexas

Renny said:

Wow, his reaction must have been priceless getting all those big sets at once :) Very nice.

:) I think I finally figured out that LEGO sets built and put on a shelf are just sad, like Stinky Pete from Toy Story 2, just sad and left in the box, no one to play with him.

So I think the LEGO sets are happier being played with. :) I just imagine them coming to life at night, talking about all the fun adventures they had with my 3 kids.

Speaking of which, will we see LEGO in Toy Story 4?

Renny

Looks like there was a mini figure cameo in Toy Story 3 (blue figure below hamburger).

http://www.flickr.com/photos/toomuchdew/4355311299/

Although a more prominent role would be pretty cool. I imagine one of those creator 3 in 1 sets that can be a car, boat or plane. Would come in very handy.

mathew

LegoFanTexas said:

Speaking of which, will we see LEGO in Toy Story 4?

I think Toy Story 4 is dead. There were rumors awhile back, but nothing surfaced. Toy Story 3 ended perfectly and I don't think there is another full length movie left to be told. Of course Star Wars should "have" ended after Episode 6 too (and that includes the prequels).

I think it's odd that Andy never had any Lego or really anything cooler than Buzz Lightyear in his toy collection. I mean what kid plays with a Mr. Potato Head past the age of three? Still great movies and my kids love them.

dragonhawk

mathew said:

I think it's odd that Andy never had any Lego or really anything cooler than Buzz Lightyear in his toy collection. I mean what kid plays with a Mr. Potato Head past the age of three? Still great movies and my kids love them.

Just like shown in the beginning of Toy Story 3, all you need was imagination. If a cardboard box with an old piggy bank in it became a spaceship, why would you need a "real" toy space ship ?

Growing up I owned much fewer toys than many of my friends. I noticed whenever they got a new one they either shelf the old one or got bored with new ones quickly. On the other hand, I re-used and re-imagined most of my toys to fit my playtime. The green toy soldiers were sometime easily killed minions and other times were combined to one giant green monster, etc LEGO was great for realizing my imagination to a degree, but I still incorporated my green toy soldiers and little transformer robots in battles against my multi-colored classic space minifigs.
All I need was imagination.

cloaked7

"If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn't thinking." George S. Patton

Ronyar

I never noticed the minifig or the Duplo figure in that scene before. Guess Lotso was always too mesmerizing!

The_Mack

Toy Story 4 could be about Andy coming out of his Dark Ages from College and trying to reconnect/recollect to his old toys. Something I think a lot of people could relate to on this forum.

prevere

Don't worry, we can all comment on the future "Lego movie" in 2014. I'm just pretending it isn't real ... Will Ferrell, Liam Neeson, Morgan Freeman.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1490017/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1

madforLEGO

Soooo I notice the DS is still around...

LegoFanTexas

madforLEGO said:

Soooo I notice the DS is still around...

The first rule about retirement thread is that you don't talk about Death Star! :)

LegoFanTexas

All kidding aside:

I have heard Death Star is ending this year and I've heard that it will continue until the end of 2014, so I have no idea what to believe.

I do have a stack of them on the shelf, anyone want one? :)

Dougout

I hope it goes. It is such a boring build. They have to have a better set lined up by now.

111ins

does it make sense to anyone else that they will keep the "big playset" around until the Ewok village is out?

Dougout

That would be great. Has anyone heard a price point for the Ewok village yet?

starwarfan77

i don't think ds is going anytime soon :D try lego shop@home and see for yourself. they are allowing anyone to order 99 units :P think how many containers they have of DS.

i think SSD will retire though. :P i am new with lego but i have that feeling :P

@LegoFanTexas
i would like one :P i can pay for shipping ;D

y2josh

Just as a point of reference... way back when it was ORIGINALLY rumored that the Death Star was going, the limit was still 99... and I ordered four. I got an e-mail the following day stating something to the effect of 'we appreciate your enthusiasm, but...' and they dropped my order to two. It may have been because I ordered them during a double VIP points promotion... but I'd be surprised if they'll ACTUALLY sell 99 to an individual.

Renny

If you have $40k (99*$400) to spend on just Lego Death Stars, you are my hero.

samiam391

Renny said:

If you have $40k (99*$400) to spend on just Lego Death Stars, you are my hero.

Lets all make a pool.

LegoFanTexas

Dougout said:

I hope it goes. It is such a boring build. They have to have a better set lined up by now.

Boring? Now granted, it has been a year or two since I built mine, but I still think it remains to this day one of the finest LEGO sets I've ever built...

And I've built hundreds! :)

Dougout said:

That would be great. Has anyone heard a price point for the Ewok village yet?

The rumors I've heard is $199.99.

Have no idea if that is true however... just rumors...