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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    Hardrada said:

    Okay, since the last time we discussed them there has been some change regarding the Winter Village sets:
    http://search2.lego.com/?q=10216&lang=2057&cc=US

    10216 Winter Village Bakery went from 'Sold out' to 'Retired product'
    10222 Winter Village Post Office was and still is labelled 'Retired product'

    So what does this tell us? Have both been retired together?

    I think that this points to there being a good possibility that they are gone for good. I know that they are seasonal, but I would see no reason to add the 'Retired product' tag if they were not actually gone. They have the 'Seasonal' tag for that.
    prevere said:

    Top 25 sellers on [email protected] - couple of thoughts.
    1) Minecraft continues to be #1 on the list. Been there a long time.
    2) No Star Wars sets.

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Top-Sellers

    Personally I don't take much notice of these lists, more so for the ones that say "Also purchased with this product" I think it’s just marketing and they put whatever item they want to move stock of, or items that they have a bigger profit margin on.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    so with all this talk of the B-Wing getting the axe, whats everyone's prediction on its life in the secondary market?

    Maybe its extremely short shelf life will surely help it somewhat even if it is a virtually unknown ship in the star wars universe.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    It will do ok, only because of the short life and lack of much discounting.

    But it is no Imperial Shuttle, I expect a slow, steady climb, but nothing amazing. Most people will just forget about it.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Ironic that B-Wing might go now, considering SSD is a year older.

    I have heard nothing about SSD going, I wonder if it is starting to sell?
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    I think it will do well, especially if people get them at $99.99.
    The fact that it isn't very popular and it looks as though it is going to have a short shelf life will mean not many will be stashed away for resale. It is SW & UCS so once gone I think it will rise pretty well. Obviously nothing like the more popular older sets but it will still go up IMO.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited May 2013
    If it is 50% off on May 4th I predict there will be a 2 set limit. I plan on getting 2. One for me, one for later. Fortunately, I have not gotten it yet.

    Personally I think it is a cool looking set. Very unique. Unknown, but neat looking.
  • Nadana86Nadana86 Member Posts: 65
    First of all, if I could write in very tiny letters to make it look like whispering I would!! Almost ashamed of saying the following:

    A store employee told me (I know) we have to say good bye to DS at the end of this year because of another large set coming in.


  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,003
    Nadana86 said:


    A store employee told me (I know) we have to say good bye to DS at the end of this year because of another large set coming in.

    Code name DS2014?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Must be that ewok village set...
  • jockosjunglejockosjungle Member Posts: 701
    Sorry I find it hard to believe that Lego shops spend all their time telling all the employees the future of all the sets. At the end of the day they're shop employees, when I worked in ASDA I didn't spend my day being told when they were thinking of stopping selling Salad Cream.
    hissingsid99FollowsCloselyLegoFanTexas
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^ Lego store is a speciality store, much like car dealership. If I was a salesman at a car dealership, I would try to get as much information as I could about the cars I was selling. The car manufacturer may not tell me which car model is EOL all the time, but I would sure try to figure out.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I've heard from multiple sources on DS, some say production has ended, others say it has been committed to 12/31/2014.

    So in truth, I don't believe any of them anymore, it is an odd beast that will continue for awhile long for some undetermined amount of time.
    Dougout
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    I would have to agree that almost all of this is rumors. Not too many corporations feel the need to give their hourly employees and store managers any inside information on production schedules. There is no upside and no need to know.

    The only person I would listen to would be a sourcing agent for their factories or someone on the inventory team.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    Lego sent me a notorized letter saying that Fire Brigade was now EOL'd, and I better rush in to pick up the last dregs off the shelves, as a courtesy. Conversly, I received another email pointing out complete sarcasm, and snickering accompanied by pointing and laughing.

    Death Star/ Fire Brigade 4eva!
    prevere
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    Both will retire, only to see a special retail DS & FB bundle for $537.99 USD.
    Pitfall69indigobox
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The irony is that if Star Wars was based on fact, the Lego version of the Death Star would have lasted longer than the "real thing!" :-)
    BrickDancerjasor
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,431
    What I have seen is this.... all the resellers jump on the speculation and pick up lots of sets (Fire Brigade I'm looking at you) and Lego says... hey! It's selling great! Let's keep making 'em since it's so popular.

    If you really think that resellers can't affect sales and make Lego take notice, you're nuts.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited May 2013

    What I have seen is this.... all the resellers jump on the speculation and pick up lots of sets (Fire Brigade I'm looking at you) and Lego says... hey! It's selling great! Let's keep making 'em since it's so popular.

    If you really think that resellers can't affect sales and make Lego take notice, you're nuts.

    Which is why taking a chance and investing in something "new" is alot more fun IMO

    LOTR and monster fighters should be two interesting themes to sit back and watch what happens when they retire.

    I think LOTR minifigures will be appreciated far more than the sets, there such nice little figs :)

    I really hope there is still many more LOTR waves to come!
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited May 2013
    looks like
    10211 is going to go EOL. its OOS in walmart and target :D

    toysrus just raised price of
    DS to $439 and
    SSD to $439
    last week when i was in one of the store i inquired and the rep was none in the store in 200 miles but about 600 online LOL :) not sure that's the LEGO inventory or toysrus inventory....

    so not sure what's happening there :P
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,003

    What I have seen is this.... all the resellers jump on the speculation and pick up lots of sets (Fire Brigade I'm looking at you) and Lego says... hey! It's selling great! Let's keep making 'em since it's so popular.

    If you really think that resellers can't affect sales and make Lego take notice, you're nuts.

    Which is why taking a chance and investing in something "new" is alot more fun IMO

    LOTR and monster fighters should be two interesting themes to sit back and watch what happens when they retire.

    I think LOTR minifigures will be appreciated far more than the sets, there such nice little figs :)

    I really hope there is still many more LOTR waves to come!
    Also lines like MF tend to be one-and-done. It does mean that there is an end date and so retail sales of the sets are less likely to drag on and on. You know a set purchased now will be EOL soon. Not so with a continuous line like SW.

    Although in many cases it also means they are virtually forgotten a year after EOL, and not likely to do so well, apart from maybe one or two sets from the line. MF is slightly quirky and more appealing to joe public and therefore probably a better bet than PQ, AC, Atlantis, etc
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    CCC said:

    MF is slightly quirky and more appealing to joe public and therefore probably a better bet than PQ, AC, Atlantis, etc

    It's not much of a stretch to say that something will be a better bet than those three dogs.
    Pitfall69
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^To each their own...

    Personally, I would also lump Ninjago into that list, but the primary consumer (kids) disagree with me. You just never know what's going to be hot and what isn't.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    ^That is why Lego is mostly for children ;)
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950

    ^To each their own...

    Personally, I would also lump Ninjago into that list, but the primary consumer (kids) disagree with me. You just never know what's going to be hot and what isn't.

    You misunderstand me. I like each of those lines personally and think they all had some really great sets and honestly, some of the best minifigs ever created. But, from a value, post-EOL standpoint, not so many $'s sitting in those lines.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Agreed...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    RE: 76000 ...maybe never worth anything, but snag the "Artic" misprint box before they are replaced with the corrected version.

    Does anyone know if they ever replaced the "Artic" misprinted boxes for #76000?
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148

    RE: 76000 ...maybe never worth anything, but snag the "Artic" misprint box before they are replaced with the corrected version.

    Does anyone know if they ever replaced the "Artic" misprinted boxes for #76000?
    Was in lego store today, still Artic.

  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    The Kingdoms Chess seems to be still available in the US?! In Europe it´s already EOL´ed, so better get some copies as long as they´re available!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2013
    ^It's ironic you mention the Chess set...I got one for my daughter last week before it goes EOL. She's really wants that set, and it seems like an interesting graduation present.

    She likes Harley Quinn too, so the boys and I built a MOC Harley Quinn Tumbler for her. Some of the parts were kind of expensive, but it was a fun build.
    PoochyBuriedinBricksColoradoBrickspreveredragonhawkLegoboyjasor
  • Greedfly13Greedfly13 Member Posts: 19

    RE: 76000 ...maybe never worth anything, but snag the "Artic" misprint box before they are replaced with the corrected version.

    Does anyone know if they ever replaced the "Artic" misprinted boxes for #76000?
    At my local Target the other day I noticed the #76000 sets on the shelf had the corrected spelling "Arctic".
  • LeonCLeonC United KingdomMember Posts: 364
    edited May 2013
    So the B-wing. Am I the only one who doesn't understand how a set that was a terrible seller 2 weeks ago, so much so they had to clear it at 50% off, is suddenly going to sell for at least rrp as soon as it EOLs. How does that work, especially as most of the potential buyers have already just bought one. I really don't see how all those who bought 5 each are going to make much profit, unless they part it out on Bricklink.
  • Tevans333Tevans333 Member Posts: 152
    LeonC said:

    So the B-wing. Am I the only one who doesn't understand how a set that was a terrible seller 2 weeks ago, so much so they had to clear it at 50% off, is suddenly going to sell for at least rrp as soon as it EOLs. How does that work, especially as most of the potential buyers have already just bought one. I really don't see how all those who bought 5 each are going to make much profit, unless they part it out on Bricklink.

    It was routinely selling in the $180 range on ebay prior to the sale. Sure it'll take a slight hit for awhile, but people were willing to pay at least that much. Even at that price you'll make your money back, so there is really no risk. Then throw in the exlusive Han figure on top of that...you wont make much if you go for the quick flip or it doesn't increase, but you wont lose either, so if you're a reseller, or fancy yourself as one, it's a no brainer to go for it.
  • neinameneiname Member Posts: 18
    LeonC said:

    So the B-wing. Am I the only one who doesn't understand how a set that was a terrible seller 2 weeks ago, so much so they had to clear it at 50% off, is suddenly going to sell for at least rrp as soon as it EOLs. How does that work, especially as most of the potential buyers have already just bought one. I really don't see how all those who bought 5 each are going to make much profit, unless they part it out on Bricklink.

    Think of how LEGO is now approaching the UCS sets. Of the last 3 sets (R2/B-Wing/X-Wing) they each come with a black collectors plate. I think this indicates LEGO is starting a new era of UCS sets where they will introduce 2/3 a year. Given that they just did the X-Wing (even after last years ~$60 x-wing) I think it's safe to say they are in the process of refreshing many of the iconic ships. I would wager that the next few UCS sets will probably include the Y-Wing and maybe a Tie Fighter (perhaps bomber?). Whatever comes I can pretty much guarantee you that someone will decide to start collecting these refreshed UCS sets at a later date and need to have the B-Wing. I can also pretty much guarantee you that LEGO will not remake the B-Wing for a very long time considering the failure of this set.

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    ^ I think this might be the case. Most UCS collectors buy the new set upon or close to release. Core sales are over and done probably 1-3 months after release. The B-Wing was a shelf warmer and large one at that. At my store, as soon as they ran out they took the sign down and stuck the new X-Wing in its place. Now, the X-Wing will or at least should be a better seller. Personally, I'm not a hard core UCS collector, but I will buy them if I can get a good sale. They are very neat looking models. I can't help to admire the Imperial Shuttle every time I walk into my office. The B-Wing should do well long term after the initial wave of quick flips are gone. It's a nice looking model as well. Anything that is big I think does well long term.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited May 2013
    ^^TLG can choose to destroy their UCS brand among true collectors if they wish, that's their prerogative. But if 1 more single rehash happens, I'm bailing from the line completely. I will not participate in the destruction of its heritage because Lego Marketing feels another Y-Wing, Snowspeeder or Falcon is the surest bet for a good financial year. Where the heck is a UCS AT-AT, Slave-1, TIE Bomber, Vader Bust? Instead of growing towards new designs, they just retread old grounds for guaranteed money.

    Just like with everything else recently like the Mr. Gold promo, X-Wing rehash, dropping product quality, China outsourcing, etc. Money and market expansion are clouding TLG's vision, product releases and thus our perception of them.
    cloaked7Kanohiy2josh
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited May 2013

    ^^TLG can choose to destroy their UCS brand among true collectors if they wish, that's their prerogative. But if 1 more single rehash happens, I'm bailing from the line completely. I will not participate in the destruction of its heritage because Lego Marketing feels another Y-Wing, Snowspeeder or Falcon is the surest bet for a good financial year. Where the heck is a UCS AT-AT, Slave-1, TIE Bomber, Vader Bust? Instead of growing towards new designs, they just retread old grounds for guaranteed money.

    Just like with everything else recently like the Mr. Gold promo, X-Wing rehash, dropping product quality, China outsourcing, etc. Money and market expansion are clouding TLG's vision, product releases and thus our perception of them.

    I think 2000-2009 was the best time for Lego, this was when Lego exclusives and big sets were new and exciting and had never before been done.

    And when no one really cared about this competitive and agressive reseller market and everyone just enjoyed building the brilliant sets they made

    Although there are some fantastic sets out today, i just feel like i missed out on a great time in Lego's history :(
    DougoutGothamConstructionCo
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    When people are buying 5 B- wings and getting other family members to come to the store because your only allowed 3 and then discussing out loud about how your going to be selling them on ebay makes the future prospects of the Lego hobby rather dim.
    cloaked7Dougout
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited May 2013
    ^^I definitely agree on there being the Golden Era, but would dare say it would extend for another year or two to encompass UCS X-Wing/TIE Interceptor, Statue of Liberty on the former end and then EN, Maersk, VW Camper, TB on the latter end.

    But I don't see the current trends as a ripple effect from reseller activity or growth. TLG's product releases, new themes, appetite for Licensed movie tie-ins, videogames/tv shows/movies, and penchant for promotional sales tactics in the last 2-3 years shows a troubling ambition for rapid market expansion with cost cutting designed into it. Great moves to drive up total revenue and customer base will enjoy large gains, but at the sacrifice of core philosophy such as 'Only the best' quality and new, creative set designs (SW rehashes galore, weak set designs such as Superheroes, LotR, Chima, Galaxy Quest) while the Minifigures get more and more detailed since they are they ones driving $ in sets nowadays.

    This is all TLG's choice as they chase the gold (pun intended) and start to forget that quality (product & design) is the cornerstone of their success.
    cloaked7Crowniey2joshGoldchainsGothamConstructionCo
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    ^^ i really don't understand this whole minifig craze, to me minifigs are just a small bonus to compliment the set, i have never considered them as a selling point when buying sets. To me they only make up 10% of the set, the models have always been and always will be the main selling point for me.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    It is quite possible that TLG is being positioned to be sold, that would make the family a lot of money if they could sell the whole thing for $10-20 Billion.

    Running up revenue and profits and showing 30% growth is a good way to get private equity and hedgefunds to pay over-the-moon for a company.

    Note: I'm not saying this is a good thing, just that it is a possible thing.
    Dougout
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ The great majority of the time when a company strays from its core philosophy and core business model the company eventually suffers due to the short sightedness. I've seen it happen with other companies and my own company. (A lot of time such things happen when a new CEO comes on board, but that's not always the case. Home Depot comes to mind.)

    I think this been said several times in this forum -- Individuals, families, etc. are typically only going to spent X amount on LEGOS, regardless of how many themes, movie tie-in's, etc. LEGO has. You see that now with the iPhone 5. (remember when Apple could do no wrong?) A lot of people are only willing to spend X amount on a cellphone. Now most prefer to get an iPhone 4 for a lower price and skip on the iPhone 5 with its extra features and higher price tag.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    ^^TLG can choose to destroy their UCS brand among true collectors if they wish, that's their prerogative. But if 1 more single rehash happens, I'm bailing from the line completely. I will not participate in the destruction of its heritage because Lego Marketing feels another Y-Wing, Snowspeeder or Falcon is the surest bet for a good financial year. Where the heck is a UCS AT-AT, Slave-1, TIE Bomber, Vader Bust? Instead of growing towards new designs, they just retread old grounds for guaranteed money.

    Just like with everything else recently like the Mr. Gold promo, X-Wing rehash, dropping product quality, China outsourcing, etc. Money and market expansion are clouding TLG's vision, product releases and thus our perception of them.

    I agree with you. Do you think this will increase the value of the older sets (pre-China, pre-rehash) or have little impact?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2013

    It is quite possible that TLG is being positioned to be sold, that would make the family a lot of money if they could sell the whole thing for $10-20 Billion.

    Running up revenue and profits and showing 30% growth is a good way to get private equity and hedgefunds to pay over-the-moon for a company.

    Note: I'm not saying this is a good thing, just that it is a possible thing.

    It is a possibility LFT...so now for the important questions: Are you going to buy TLG? And if so, what do you plan to do with those that made the decision to quit selling Lego sets to you? (holds breath!)
    Dougout
  • PaperballparkPaperballpark UK / KLMember Posts: 3,804
    I might be being rather naive here, but might the thinking on SW UCS from TLG's point of view be along the same lines as how they go about releasing City sets?

    i.e. they do a new police station and fire station every 5 years or so, to refresh them and get a new market of consumers to buy them. For Star Wars, sure it might be a bit more of a gap (10 years?), but the difference in elements and colours in those 10 years is huge, and there will be a lot of people who didn't get the original X-wing.

    My point is that no-one really moans about TLG bringing out new police stations every 5 years or so, so why do we expect them to never ever ever produce new versions of UCS Star Wars ships that they last sold 10 years ago?

    Just thought I'd throw a cat among the pigeons ;)
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    That would be interesting if Lego were sold. I can possibly see a company like Disney getting involved. Disney, Lucasfilm, Lego. It could be a good thing.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,263
    ^ Honestly I don't think that would be good at all. We've already seen the Disney purchase of Lucasfilm kill off the Clone wars cartoon, which was successful, due to it being done by a competitor. I couldn't imagine LEGO being run by a single company like that with the probably chance of no outside licensed material coming to form in LEGO. A sad day it would be.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,939
    edited May 2013

    It is quite possible that TLG is being positioned to be sold, that would make the family a lot of money if they could sell the whole thing for $10-20 Billion.

    Running up revenue and profits and showing 30% growth is a good way to get private equity and hedgefunds to pay over-the-moon for a company.

    Note: I'm not saying this is a good thing, just that it is a possible thing.

    They seem to be acting more and more like a PLC with shareholders to satisfy lately.

    I have seen it in my employer, a core European Large Pharmaceutical company that used to boast about it's 7 core values, that are now systematically shutting as many European plants as possible and moving everything to China and India or building new plants in countries they're trying to really break into in a big way and won't do well unless tey're producing locally. As a result our plant is marked for closure and i'll be redundant in either 16 or 24 months. Their ethics have gone out of the window as they chase ever larger dividends for their shareholders, could TLG be going down a similar path?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Disney is indeed one of the possible options, but that is a merger with a large public company.

    I was more thinking of a private deal to keep TLG private.

    Another interesting option would be Berkshire Hathaway, Warren likes to buy "winners", hence his recent purchase of Heinz, that company may have been expensive to buy, but it is a winner and will continue to be for decades to come.

    I doubt that either Hasbro or Mattel could do it, the government would probably block it on anti-trust grounds and I don't think either company is large enough or healthy enough for it.

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    ^^TLG can choose to destroy their UCS brand among true collectors if they wish, that's their prerogative. But if 1 more single rehash happens, I'm bailing from the line completely.

    Eh, I don't agree. You should be buying the UCS sets because they are great sets to build and display. Not as an investment. If you're upset that the X-Wing was "rehashed"... well then don't buy it. Did you buy the B-Wing before it was clearanced out? If not then don't complain.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734

    When people are buying 5 B- wings and getting other family members to come to the store because your only allowed 3 and then discussing out loud about how your going to be selling them on ebay makes the future prospects of the Lego hobby rather dim.

    I don't disagree. But bringing it up in this thread seems a bit ironic.

    My point is that no-one really moans about TLG bringing out new police stations every 5 years or so, so why do we expect them to never ever ever produce new versions of UCS Star Wars ships that they last sold 10 years ago?

    City sets don't have "Ultimate Collector's Series" printed on the box. That said, such a label doesn't translate to "This will be the only large scale set of this subject ever produced by LEGO."
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