Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Brickarmor

prevere said:

I'm looking at Chima sets in Wal-Mart and wondering, which is the Ice Dragon of the bunch? Then I walk away thinking that none of them are worthy. And I'll be ticked off when one of them randomly explodes for $120 a year later at Xmas.

Good question. I wonder if the Croc boat will have a shorter shelf life with two similarly sized and priced sets coming this summer. If you squint just right, the Eagle Interceptor does look like an Ice Dragon.

prevere

^I was thinking that about the Eagle Interceptor too...

sergiorf

If you're talking about the Eagle Interceptor being the new Ice Dragon then it most likely wont be the new Ice Dragon ;)

TheLoneTensor

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sergiorf said:

If you're talking about the Eagle Interceptor being the new Ice Dragon then it most likely wont be the new Ice Dragon ;)

Right! It's the Heisenberg Lego Principle. Anything we discuss as being the next big thing is instantly disqualified as being the next big thing.

Brickarmor

No, no, I was being terribly literal. Without my glasses, the Interceptor looks like an Ice Dragon. IF Laval's Fighter goes quickly, and IF Chima is a hit, that one could do well. But with him being the main character it'll probably stick around.

The_Mack

madforLEGO said:

Unimogs are nice and I think they will do well.
I think most of the bigger technic will do well now that only TRU can have them (at least in US) and BOGO50 sales do not come around often.

In most cases the Technic sets are excluded from the TRU LEGO sales. It's usually whatever LEGO is hot at the moment, and Technic to be excluded.

LegoFanTexas

I wonder what the future holds for Technic. I've now built just over a dozen models, from large to small. I have the Unimog and 4x4 Crawler sitting on the shelf, along with a motorized excavator, but I can't find myself jumping up and down to build them.

Yea, they are indeed cool, but after while they are all sort of the same. Those darn Technic pins are a pain to remove, so I'm unlikely to ever take them apart, and at some point it is just 1-2 thousand small parts, gears, and pins going together to make another vehicle.

Friends was a nice improvement, it was "new", and the minifigs in general are much better in all series than they used to be. What "new" is coming for Technic?

Will LEGO do anything but vehicles for Technic?

madforLEGO

Well LEGO has had other Technic sets in the past that were not vehicle related, but they are few and far between.

prevere

^How about Technic Star Wars figures? Oh wait, never mind.

Ideally, doing a Rollercoaster / Amusement Park line (under the Technic name or not) would be a spectacular shift for the series. The rides would need Technic parts to function.

nkx1

LegoFanTexas said:

I wonder what the future holds for Technic. I've now built just over a dozen models, from large to small. I have the Unimog and 4x4 Crawler sitting on the shelf, along with a motorized excavator, but I can't find myself jumping up and down to build them.

Yea, they are indeed cool, but after while they are all sort of the same. Those darn Technic pins are a pain to remove, so I'm unlikely to ever take them apart, and at some point it is just 1-2 thousand small parts, gears, and pins going together to make another vehicle.

...

Will LEGO do anything but vehicles for Technic?

I can relate to your sentiments somewhat. I think the large Technic sets are awesome, but they are very tedious to build versus building with bricks. For me, the tedious aspect makes the sets less fun to build. It's definitely a mixed bag, though, since the finished models are really impressive for the most part.

LegoFanTexas

The last big Technic set I built was the Crane Truck #8258

With 1877 parts, it is indeed a massive truck, very nicely done with all the gears. Looking at Unimog, yea it is different, but is it really?

Or is it the same thing with another color shell and slightly different functions?

Granted, #8043 Motorized Excavator is at least RC, so it drives around, so I'm sure I'll built that at some point. I might save 4x4 Crawler for my son for his 8th birthday this fall and see if he can build that, if it will drive on grass, he would have a ton of fun with it.

But Unimog? If it was RC and powered, maybe, but it now just seems boring.

The other end, back on topic...

#8070 Super Car - this one should do very well in the aftermarket, it is already moving up. They'll do more cars like this, but they seem to be rare in recent years, after losing the Ferrari licence from a few years ago (checkout the prices on those old sets!)

Maybe Super Car needs a RC mod, how fun would that be to take outside and race on the street? I was into RC cars as a kid, they don't seem to be as popular today as they were back then, unless I'm just missing it.

LegoFanTexas

BTW, staying on topic, the new #42000 Grand Prix Racer should do very well, look at this set:

#8458 - Silver Champion

An average of 1 a month is selling on Bricklink for an average price of nearly $500, and it has a higher part count than #42000 does. Granted, it is 13 years later, but I wonder what #8458 was selling for 5 years ago.

cloaked7

^^

LegoFanTexas said:

Maybe Super Car needs a RC mod, how fun would that be to take outside and race on the street? I was into RC cars as a kid, they don't seem to be as popular today as they were back then, unless I'm just missing it.

I agree. #8183 was extremely successful. It wasn't a Technic set, but they could make a Technic version. If I recall I got 4 of them at a TRU BOGO and resold all of them for a very nice profit. Everyone likes a RC vehicle. I think that is one plus for the Crawler and why it will probably out perform the Unimog.

cloaked7

LegoFanTexas said:

BTW, staying on topic, the new #42000 Grand Prix Racer should do very well...

We agree again! :-) I think I've already posted that I think the GPR will do well. It is a set I got recently and want to build it for display. It simply looks awesome. Personally, I don't get the use of power functions to just raise lower the rear spoiler. (That is, I think that's all the PF does.) But, that's an optional add on, so it's OK.

ColoradoBricks

I have #8458 and #8461, was exited to build #42000 but it was such a let down (+ many people reported mismatched colors, if buying for resell, that could be an issue). It might do good after market, but it is not #8458 quality.

Farmer_John

prevere said:

Ideally, doing a Rollercoaster / Amusement Park line (under the Technic name or not) would be a spectacular shift for the series. The rides would need Technic parts to function.

I'm definitely in...

Technic is a great Lego theme and I always try to pick up these sets. As one who put himself through college as a grunt working on wheat harvesting crews, I really like the Technic Combine Harvester #8274. I was able to pick it up about a year after it retired for $75 shipped from a guy who couldn't sell these things. They probably still aren't that popular since most people don't even know what they are, but it's a really neat set. I've also seen the new Technic IRL car built in TLG stores and it looks really nice too. But my favorite recent Technic set is the yellow Helicopter #9396. It was on sale at Amazon for around $80 and I missed it. Now I keep holding off for a good deal that will probably never happen and I may miss the set entirely. It appears to only be available at Lego online; not in their stores now (at least the two stores I've checked).

cloaked7

^ Yup, the personal reviews of the copter on this, and LEGOS, site are very positive. It does sound like a great set. Based on the reviews, and recommendations like yours, I'm now gonna get one. Also, to your point about price. I think a person would do good to get it for $10 off RRP. But, that may not be possible. This may be a set that they didn't make many of, relatively speaking. TRU has it at RRP, which is rare, because they usually mark sets up.

Basta

@Farmer_John if you want #9396 you can get it from amazon.co.uk for about $78USD delivered.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/B006ZS4SHC

nkx1

^ I was just going to suggest that (I got mine from Amazon UK also)! I haven't built mine yet, but it does look like an awesome set. I suspect this one may perform well after EOL.

cloaked7

Just got back from TRU. Interesting, they have the copter for $120 on line and $130 in the store BUT my store is having a $25 off a $100+ LEGO purchase, so I got a copter for $105. A pretty good deal. BUt, the amazon.co.uk deal is better IF it arrives in good shape. The last LEGOS I got from there were badly crushed.

graphite

^mine arrived in perfect shape.

Farmer_John

@Basta - Thanks for the link! Just ordered it...

starwarfan77

any predictions on following:
1. 9461-1: The Swamp Creature
2. 9462-1: The Mummy
3. 9463-1: The Werewolf
4. 9464-1: The Vampyre Hearse
5. 9466-1: The Crazy Scientist & His Monster
6. 9467-1: The Ghost Train
7. 9468-1: Vampyre Castle
8. 9450-1: Epic Dragon Battle

will monster series ever do well? i am thinking of picking few on sale this summer :) when local stores are going to put them in clearance for "LONE RANGER" ;)

starwarfan77

can i add more to the frey:

1. 9515-1: Malevolence
2. 9488-1: Elite Clone Trooper & Commando Droid Battle Pack

fizicyst

starwarfan77 said:

any predictions on following:
1. 9461-1: The Swamp Creature
2. 9462-1: The Mummy
3. 9463-1: The Werewolf
4. 9464-1: The Vampyre Hearse
5. 9466-1: The Crazy Scientist & His Monster
6. 9467-1: The Ghost Train
7. 9468-1: Vampyre Castle
8. 9450-1: Epic Dragon Battle

will monster series ever do well? i am thinking of picking few on sale this summer :) when local stores are going to put them in clearance for "LONE RANGER" ;)

I would put money on the Vampyre Castle doing well after EOL this year. History says that big sets, especially castles typically do well. I would expect at least 2x RPP in a year. So, if you can pick these up on clearance that would be my choice. The others will probably do OK, but you will have to sell a ton of them to make the same $.

The next two sets you listed are not scheduled to EOL as quickly, so I would wait on buying those up.

TheLoneTensor

starwarfan77 said:

any predictions on following:
1. 9461-1: The Swamp Creature
2. 9462-1: The Mummy
3. 9463-1: The Werewolf
4. 9464-1: The Vampyre Hearse
5. 9466-1: The Crazy Scientist & His Monster
6. 9467-1: The Ghost Train
7. 9468-1: Vampyre Castle
8. 9450-1: Epic Dragon Battle

will monster series ever do well? i am thinking of picking few on sale this summer :) when local stores are going to put them in clearance for "LONE RANGER" ;)

Agree with @fizicyst on the VC, especially the glowing sticker version which will fetch a bigger return. That and same goes for the glowing mummy and hearse - all three full-glowing versions will fetch higher prices. Even if the glow ink wears off/degrades, which is the latest theory for the change, they still will be more collectible. You can still find the glowing sets in stores here and there mixed with the newer, non-glow versions. To know if you have a full-glowing set, just look at the box. If the VC leaves, mummy bandages or hearse roof are shown glowing, it's a full-glow set.

As for monsters in general, Halloween isn't going away, so these all will be worth more and more each year. If you're looking for resale of the smaller sets, you probably want collections of all the smaller sets (swamp creature, mummy, werewolf, hearse, monster), as it's not worth the hassle of selling a tiny set like the swamp creature singly.

My dark horse is the ghost train. It certainly has its faults (no PF & cars can't run on normal tracks without modifications), but it really is a charming set when built. Also, it has three of the new ghosts, which are always welcome in bulk.

Then there's the Haunted House, which you didn't list, but I can't stress enough that if you're even remotely interested in it, get it now or you'll be sorry. Hopefully there will be a deal on 5/4 where it can be had for a few bucks off.

pharmjod

I picked up several of the Epic Dragon battle for $75ish from Amazon and Amazon.uk. I won't be buying more, even if I see on clearance (unless they are 1/2 off or better). Not convinced it will ever be a huge gain, but I'd be happy with $50-$100 on each one. I've been buying every Vampyre Castle I find at $69+tax at Walmart. Would love to see them cheaper, but am not willing to take that chance. 30% off is a decent discount for me.

Farmer_John

Is anyone else suffering from SW burnout? I feel like it used to be a slam-dunk purchasing any SW set; now they all seem questionable from an investment standpoint. I think part of my burnout has to do with the shear number of SW sets that are being released these days. My point of view is that only really unique SW sets will do well...sets like R2D2, and...well...I struggle to think of others.

I do think the VC, Ghost Train, and Haunted House will do well since they're so unique. I'm not sure about the others since there seem to be so many "monster" CMFs. I am also guessing that Ninjago might do well since it's so popular.

As a side note, I really like the looks of the Lone Ranger sets. The stagecoach in particular was really well done!

sweetness34

starwarfan77 said:

any predictions on following:
1. 9461-1: The Swamp Creature
2. 9462-1: The Mummy
3. 9463-1: The Werewolf
4. 9464-1: The Vampyre Hearse
5. 9466-1: The Crazy Scientist & His Monster
6. 9467-1: The Ghost Train
7. 9468-1: Vampyre Castle
8. 9450-1: Epic Dragon Battle

will monster series ever do well? i am thinking of picking few on sale this summer :) when local stores are going to put them in clearance for "LONE RANGER" ;)

I think the MF zombie set will do pretty well also.

joel4motion

I think the MF zombie set will do pretty well also.


9465? already 2.5x RRP on ebay and only EOL'D 5-6 months ago!

Thanos75

Has anyone else noticed #75013 missing from the Target shelves ? Its still available on-line but a quick check confirms there are not any in stock in a 50mile radius around New Orleans. Just wondering if anyone else noticed it slowly disappearing.

indigobox

I love the Monster Figter series. I also think once they go they will do well.

Slightly off topic I was browsing the web the other day and stumbled across what looks like some initial sketch ideas for the Monster Fighters series back in 2010.

Monster Fighters Sketches

Looks like the creator was Alexandre Boudon but I may be wrong. He has some cool Minifigure designs too in the CMF range. :)

sidersdd

indigobox said:

I love the Monster Figter series. I also think once they go they will do well.

Slightly off topic I was browsing the web the other day and stumbled across what looks like some initial sketch ideas for the Monster Fighters series back in 2010.

Monster Fighters Sketches

Looks like the creator was Alexandre Boudon but I may be wrong. He has some cool Minifigure designs too in the CMF range. :)

http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/48971/#Comment_48971

Goldchains

Thanos75 said:

Has anyone else noticed #75013 missing from the Target shelves ? Its still available on-line but a quick check confirms there are not any in stock in a 50mile radius around New Orleans. Just wondering if anyone else noticed it slowly disappearing.

I think this is more or less people buying the sets for their collections, and/or future resale. Being it is a Target/Lego exclusive(the Hard to Find category), there are not as many made as the other available at all retail sets. My local Lego store has actually been sold out of this set and the Battle of Hoth set for a while. I'm sure more stock will be coming soon. My local Targets still have a few on the shelves.

rchadd

. deleting

jcb193

I've got a few lego personal purchases coming up and wondering if you guys have an opinion about the best time to buy modulars. Are there 20% off coupons? Do I buy on 5/4 and look at the Han figure as a $20 discount (ebay). Does toyrsRus ever discount modulars?

Would love to get 10-20% off plus Han figure.

turtle1173

In recent months, the best place to get modulars seems to have been Walmart and Amazon. I got Town Hall at the end of last year for $148 from Amazon. Walmart had some crazy sales where some were $110 or something like that (FB & PS).

Usually the TRU coupons are in store only and I've never seen a modular in store. Even with the occasional BOGO sales, the mods are usually "out of stock". I don't think I've ever seen TRU have modulars marked down online either.

prevere

If you want a "personal" modular, and could care less for the box/physical instructions, keep an eye on eBay for loose / partial lots of modulars.

Brickarmor

TRU has gone from bad to worse for finding deals. Used to be we could count on online glitches and unintended stacking... Sad when the only deals you can get from a retailer are when one hand is not watching the other. Anyway, enough TRU-bashing. And modulars will be produced for perpetuity. The horizon is starred with giant blue boxes.

prevere

^Remember the great TRU glitch on Easter Sunday 2012? That was legendary.

BrickDancer

^Witness and will testify to that. Amen brother!

lulwut

prevere said:

^Remember the great TRU glitch on Easter Sunday 2012? That was legendary.

Was it really that great? I only remember getting a few of the new $20 Superhero sets for $12 each.

samiam391

^If you stacked up like some of us did, then it was quite the heck of a deal :o)

Pitfall69

I got Jabba's Palace for nothing during the buy 2 get one free deal. They forgot to mark it up and it was on sale. I got 3 for $72.99 each

Poochy

The mods are now classified as "Hard to Find" on the TRU website, and those are excluded from all promotions. The days of BOGO deal for mods are over :(.

Pitfall69

^They have been like that for awhile now. Although if you called and persisted, you could get them to include them in the promotion.

masterX244

prevere said:

^Remember the great TRU glitch on Easter Sunday 2012? That was legendary.

what glitch was that? didnt knew anything about it

TheLoneTensor

That was where TRU was offering $10 off $50, but the glitch was taking $10 off each thing in the cart. So, if you put together something like 2x Captain America Cycles and 1 Cosmic Cube Escape (or similar) and just broke the $50 threshold, you got $30 off which basically equated to over 50% off those brand new sets.

prevere

^Yup. That's the one. I remember being oh so sure that TRU was going to cancel all the orders. But they let it ride. And it was only a week or two into the Super Heroes launch. You could get Star Wars 2011 Advent Calendars for around $5 with the discounts.

turtle1173

Oh that's right. I think that's when I picked up several road plates and switch track packs. Good times...