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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^I personally think you can't go wrong with Original Trilogy sets. Even if they get re made. Of course, the more iconic ships will always be more sought after.
    madforLEGO
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Cafe Corner came out before there was tremendous speculation on EOLed sets. It was a much smaller group. Just the change in the climate of speculating on these sets over the last few years makes comparing anything difficult regardless of the theme.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I personally think you can't go wrong with Original Trilogy sets. Even if they get re made. Of course, the more iconic ships will always be more sought after.

    On some ships, sure, but I would never even consider keeping a stash of X-Wings (any version), unless they were available at huge discounts.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    Guys, thanks for the extensive feedback! I took 4, one for me, 3 for later resale.. I cant see myself "losing" at £45 and the comments here tippped me... Picking them up on Saturday :D Must say I DO like the model, but also take the point, that it may not be well know..
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,720
    y2josh said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I personally think you can't go wrong with Original Trilogy sets. Even if they get re made. Of course, the more iconic ships will always be more sought after.

    On some ships, sure, but I would never even consider keeping a stash of X-Wings (any version), unless they were available at huge discounts.
    Unless you are planning a large assault on the Death Star I would highly advise buying any X Wings in large quantities.
    So yeah there are exceptions to the rule in term of reselling, but the reason why LEGO keeps them running forever is again people love the X Wing set.
    jcb193
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    Getting so sick of ebay. The last four transactions I've done on ebay are with fake buyers. Is there anyway to increase the threshold for a buyer?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Wow, that's crazy.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    Yeah, it seems any transaction over $300 is a buyer with 0-3 feedback. I won't even ship stuff right away, because I know within a few days I'll get a paypal request not to send it. Tempted to send it anyway and get the money eventually.....
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I wouldn't do that. I had a set that I mailed to Canada because it was purchased and paid for immediately. Got a dispute and lost the money. PayPal is saying that the item has been returned to me, but I have no idea if it is still in the post office in Canada or on it's way back. Either way I'll be out the return postage. So much for seller protection.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^^ @jcb193 I guess you know, but you can restrict people from bidding that don't meet certain criteria. But, eBay doesn't allow you full control over what they are. For instance, you can only block a bidder that has an overall negative feedback score of -1, -2, -4. You can't, for instance, only allow bidders of +10, +20, or +30 or higher. At least I don't know how to. That's unfortunate. You can't be very discriminating, which it too bad, IMHO. Course, you can block a specific person and block anyone you want. But, that's reactive and not proactive.

    Unfortunately, eBay makes it easy for scammers, thieves, and such to both buy and sell. And, it takes forever for eBay to deal with such individuals. And, it doesn't help, because most people will give a seller positive feedback, or refrain from leaving negative feedback for fear of revenge, even if they pretty much know the seller is selling stolen goods, etc.

    It is all very frustrating. I know.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Nobody knows this answer for sure either way, but I'm curious on the gut instinct. I actually think Lego speculation might be peaking this year, and start to decline.
    jcb193 said:

    Yeah, it seems any transaction over $300 is a buyer with 0-3 feedback. I won't even ship stuff right away, because I know within a few days I'll get a paypal request not to send it. Tempted to send it anyway and get the money eventually.....

    I hear ya. Just relisted a VW Beetle that I sold to someone in Europe with zero feedback. I always email to be nice and say, "I see you're new to eBay, happy to help, yada yada yada". I never get a response. So within a week I post a cancelation request and repost immediately.

    At least ... eBay will allow an item to stay active until payment is received.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    ^That is a good idea and one that I will start using. It is frustrating though because I try to comply with the higher standards in eBay to qualify for the discounts on final value fees. Many more disputes where I'm not backed up and I will have to start rethinking my whole strategy.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited April 2013
    jcb193 said:

    Yeah, it seems any transaction over $300 is a buyer with 0-3 feedback. I won't even ship stuff right away, because I know within a few days I'll get a paypal request not to send it. Tempted to send it anyway and get the money eventually.....

    Can you just state in the auction that you will ship to those with less than XX feedback a week after the auction's completion to make sure the payment clears through paypal? I would think that would deter some of the riff-raff. Just a thought...
  • BigKidBigKid Member Posts: 29
    edited April 2013
    I try to get around the fake bidders by using buy it nows with immediate payment expected. Like Prevere said eBay will keep your auction going until you receive payment in Paypal. This eliminates a lot of headaches. Although the best offer nibbles get a lot more interesting. :)

    BigKid
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^I don't do auctions. I don't know why people still do them?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited April 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I don't do auctions. I don't know why people still do them?

    Because they are quite profitable when done with care, experience and proper precautions. Nothing in this world is risk free, it's simply a matter of reducing it as much as you feasibly can.
    cardgenius
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited April 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I don't do auctions. I don't know why people still do them?

    I do auctions all the time, simply because they're quicker and net me more due to insanely lower fees. I'll be cutting out auctions altogether here in a couple weeks, though, as they're dropping the hugely reduced fees, which will obviously offset the benefit of selling something for a couple bucks less than I could have by setting my own price.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ You probably know this, but auctions soon will have the same fees as BIN.

    Frankly, the benefit to BIN is to require instant payment, so you really don't have to deal with it.

    I haven't done an auction in awhile, and I don't miss them one bit.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited April 2013
    ^^ For item under $100, auctions has lower FVF than FP. For $100 item with free shipping, auction's FVF is $9 and FP's FVF is $8.50

    I do not see any benefit of auctions over fixed price for items over $100. After the new pricing structure, there is really no benefit in doing auctions.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    ^If you have an eBay store, the auction fees are ridiculously low. But LFT is right - they're dropping that benefit in a few weeks, which is while I'll be dropping my auction-style listings right along with it.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    edited April 2013
    I guess for me the biggest telltale of a scammer is when they buy one of my more ludicrously priced auctions and don't even make a lower offer first.

    Most of my domestic scammers always pay immediately. But I might switch to immediate payment, as I also get a lot of international buyers that buy the auction and then don't pay (I guess they don't see the shipping costs?)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited April 2013
    jcb193 said:

    I guess for me the biggest telltale of a scammer is when they buy one of my more ludicrously priced auctions and don't even make a lower offer first.

    Most of my domestic scammers always pay immediately. But I might switch to immediate payment, as I also get a lot of international buyers that buy the auction and then don't pay (I guess they don't see the shipping costs?)

    I haven't had an international scammer yet, but I'm dreading the day I do, as tracking down the signature confirmation for some countries looks like it may be impossible, and I believe PayPal requires that in order to 100% back you on a fraudulent chargeback. Someone else may be able to straighten me out on that, though.
  • BigKidBigKid Member Posts: 29
    y2josh said:

    jcb193 said:

    I guess for me the biggest telltale of a scammer is when they buy one of my more ludicrously priced auctions and don't even make a lower offer first.

    Most of my domestic scammers always pay immediately. But I might switch to immediate payment, as I also get a lot of international buyers that buy the auction and then don't pay (I guess they don't see the shipping costs?)

    I haven't had an international scammer yet, but I'm dreading the day I do, as tracking down the signature confirmation for some countries looks like it may be impossible, and I believe PayPal requires that in order to 100% back you on a fraudulent chargeback. Someone else may be able to straighten me out on that, though.
    Most international buyers are legit as are most domestic. To me it's just not worth the hassle dealing with international buyers as Paypal makes it difficult to recover funds if things go wrong. Customs, lack of tracking, communication, etc. are just some of my reasons. I know I lose out on sales because of this, but it's just a lot easier for me personally.

    BigKid
  • BigKidBigKid Member Posts: 29
    jcb193 said:

    I guess for me the biggest telltale of a scammer is when they buy one of my more ludicrously priced auctions and don't even make a lower offer first.

    Most of my domestic scammers always pay immediately. But I might switch to immediate payment, as I also get a lot of international buyers that buy the auction and then don't pay (I guess they don't see the shipping costs?)

    You can adjust your eBay settings to only allow bidders to win a certain amount of auctions before it blocks them. That way if you get someone harassing you they can only do so much damage. I have mine set to 5 I believe. Look under your selling preferences in eBay.

    BigKid
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    For the Internation sellers I would only say that not everyone is the same. Scammers and frauds can be found everywhere, even in local US. I'm sorry but denying selling to International sellers cause of Paypal and custom rules is not fair....I have been buying from almost every part of the world and not a single trade went bad...and I myself have sold stuff to almost every part of the world, twice it went bad, but sooner or later it turned out well....just saying...
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I don't do auctions. I don't know why people still do them?

    Most of my ebay purchases have been through Auctions because I find I often get a bargain when bidding 2 seconds from the end. I got into Lego this way as I bought a pallet of toys for £150 in an auction without knowing exactly what was in it, so pot luck and all were new. One of the items was the Tower Bridge...and the rest is history as they say.

  • Gavin83Gavin83 London, UKMember Posts: 251
    Coolsplash said:

    International sellers cause of Paypal and custom rules is not fair

    Fair doesn't come into it, its the sellers choice who they sell to. The fact of the matter is dealing with any issues internationally is more troublesome and potentially more expensive than domestic. I live in the UK and while I'll ship to some European countries I certainly wouldn't ship further than that, including the US. The postage costs are just too high and if I'm forced to refund both the item and the postage cost I'll be considerably out of pocket. In a dispute, due to Ebay/Paypal often siding with the buyer unless sufficent evidence is given and this evidence being harder to produce for international sales it just isn't worth the effort. Don't deem the sellers as 'unfair' for wanting to protect themselves, blame Ebay and the postal services for creating this situation.
    Billybrown said:


    Most of my ebay purchases have been through Auctions because I find I often get a bargain when bidding 2 seconds from the end. I got into Lego this way as I bought a pallet of toys for £150 in an auction without knowing exactly what was in it, so pot luck and all were new. One of the items was the Tower Bridge...and the rest is history as they say.

    Once again this comes down to ebay generally being more of an advantage to the buyer than the seller. As a seller it's far easier to list an item such as lego under BIN and it'll only become more so once the rules come into place. If I were to sell lego on ebay I wouldn't bother with an auction either, it has so many disadvantages compared to BIN.

    However ironically if I were to buy lego on ebay I wouldn't generally bother with BIN. I find that most sellers generally set their prices far too high and you can make a considerable saving buying the item through an auction listing instead.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,720
    edited April 2013
    BigKid said:

    y2josh said:

    jcb193 said:

    I guess for me the biggest telltale of a scammer is when they buy one of my more ludicrously priced auctions and don't even make a lower offer first.

    Most of my domestic scammers always pay immediately. But I might switch to immediate payment, as I also get a lot of international buyers that buy the auction and then don't pay (I guess they don't see the shipping costs?)

    I haven't had an international scammer yet, but I'm dreading the day I do, as tracking down the signature confirmation for some countries looks like it may be impossible, and I believe PayPal requires that in order to 100% back you on a fraudulent chargeback. Someone else may be able to straighten me out on that, though.
    Most international buyers are legit as are most domestic. To me it's just not worth the hassle dealing with international buyers as Paypal makes it difficult to recover funds if things go wrong. Customs, lack of tracking, communication, etc. are just some of my reasons. I know I lose out on sales because of this, but it's just a lot easier for me personally.

    BigKid
    Actually in my experience I have had FAR more overseas buyers re-neg on purchases, I think it is because they have nothing to lose, they open an another account up (which is why people see 0 feedback usually) and basically buy it first without asking for a shipping price, then get the shipping price and see it is too much, then never answer. At least that has what I have always believed because what other reason is there really? I mean I put ASK for a price before buying about apparently that does not translate in other countries or something. That and like others I have heard way too many scary stories about theft and fraud overseas.
    To be fair, when I sold stuff overseas it was fine, no issues, but I just decided it is not worth it if something happens.

    The other joke is that the buyer requirements are ridiculous limiting those with negative feedback from bidding/buying, especially since the only why you can get a neg is if you are a seller now. i guess if you do not want a seller buying you items and they happen to have negative feedback then you are all set.
    Buyers cannot get negative feedback, so what is up with that requirement then?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I will say I do sell a lot of items overseas from U.S. Most of the time it's fine because it's small stuff - and I clearly state that it's gonna be about 4-5 weeks given customs hold.

    Anything $50 and above goes Priority and I insure at my own cost.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Billybrown said:



    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I don't do auctions. I don't know why people still do them?

    Most of my ebay purchases have been through Auctions because I find I often get a bargain when bidding 2 seconds from the end. I got into Lego this way as I bought a pallet of toys for £150 in an auction without knowing exactly what was in it, so pot luck and all were new. One of the items was the Tower Bridge...and the rest is history as they say.

    I should have said "I don't know why any of us Bricksetters would use auctions to sell their items"

  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,813
    This may be the wrong thread because I'm not interested in the aftermarket value, but any guesses as to when 7965 will be retired?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Haymarket, VAMember Posts: 1,268
    It could go this summer/fall, and most likely will. But, I can also see this iconic ship stick around a few extra production cycles. If you want it, I would not put it off past the May sale.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    FollowsClosely said:

    It could go this summer/fall, and most likely will. But, I can also see this iconic ship stick around a few extra production cycles. If you want it, I would not put it off past the May sale.


    LEGO discontinues the majority of its assortment once per year: in late fall. That's it.

    There are "series" and seasonal sets that discontinue at various times, but MF will be good through summer and into fall, like everything else in the regular, retail assortment.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ That is mostly true, but there is a spring/summer discontinuation as well.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Has anyone NOT gotten this set? I mean, cmon, what are you waiting for?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Pitfall69 said:

    Has anyone NOT gotten this set? I mean, cmon, what are you waiting for?

    It's ok, we need people to not buy it now, so they can buy it for $300 from us later. :)

    It has been out for 2 years now, so anyone who hasn't bought it, really has no one to blame but themselves.

    They should stop asking, "will this be retired soon, can I wait to buy it", and just go buy the bloody thing.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^That goes for any set you desire that has been out for quite some time.
  • BrickDaddyBrickDaddy Member Posts: 13
    I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion here of the bait and switch that happened last Christmas with 10222 and 10216. We all expected 10216 to go, and now that set is just "sold out," whereas 10222 is now labeled a "retired product." As far as I know, no set with the retired label on [email protected] has ever returned and if 10222 does, it would be the first.

    The switch must have caught many resellers off guard so I'm fairly confident much stocking up didn't happen last year. If it doesn't return I can see significant gains on the existing secondary market supplies given the surge in holiday demand and lack of normal reseller stock up.. It's surprising many people haven't picked up on this yet and the set can still be had for the low-mid $80 range on Bricklink.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,813
    Pitfall69 said:

    Has anyone NOT gotten this set? I mean, cmon, what are you waiting for?

    I got into LEGO less than a year ago (as an adult, anyway), and for most of that time wasn't interested in the Star Wars theme. Even so, I know this set was down to ~$100 late last year. If it's likely to be around a bit longer, I'll wait for something better than RRP. If I wait too long, LEGO will surely make another similar to it. It's the Millennium Falcon and the main cast of characters, after all. And lastly, my LEGO budget is likely far below the average of those who roam these forums.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    BrickDaddy said:

    I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion here of the bait and switch that happened last Christmas with 10222 and 10216. We all expected 10216 to go, and now that set is just "sold out," whereas 10222 is now labeled a "retired product." As far as I know, no set with the retired label on [email protected] has ever returned and if 10222 does, it would be the first.

    The switch must have caught many resellers off guard so I'm fairly confident much stocking up didn't happen last year. If it doesn't return I can see significant gains on the existing secondary market supplies given the surge in holiday demand and lack of normal reseller stock up.. It's surprising many people haven't picked up on this yet and the set can still be had for the low-mid $80 range on Bricklink.

    I am expecting both sets to return in the fall. Just MO. Don't want to get suckered into this line like I did with Fire Brigade and the modulars lol....there are other sets that I am 100% sure will retire this year and give me my required rate of return so while I do thank the Toy Shop for the $$$ last year it is thanks but no thanks to the rest of the lineup going forward.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^You'd be surprised. I bet a few of us would sell off our first born for a UCS MF ;)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    doriansdad said:

    BrickDaddy said:

    I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion here of the bait and switch that happened last Christmas with 10222 and 10216. We all expected 10216 to go, and now that set is just "sold out," whereas 10222 is now labeled a "retired product." As far as I know, no set with the retired label on [email protected] has ever returned and if 10222 does, it would be the first.

    The switch must have caught many resellers off guard so I'm fairly confident much stocking up didn't happen last year. If it doesn't return I can see significant gains on the existing secondary market supplies given the surge in holiday demand and lack of normal reseller stock up.. It's surprising many people haven't picked up on this yet and the set can still be had for the low-mid $80 range on Bricklink.

    I am expecting both sets to return in the fall. Just MO. Don't want to get suckered into this line like I did with Fire Brigade and the modulars lol....there are other sets that I am 100% sure will retire this year and give me my required rate of return so while I do thank the Toy Shop for the $$$ last year it is thanks but no thanks to the rest of the lineup going forward.

    This line has so far been a 2-year run for each set. If that holds true, bakery is gone, post office is back for one fall only, and cottage would retire in 2014.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited April 2013
    prevere said:


    This line has so far been a 2-year run for each set. If that holds true, bakery is gone, post office is back for one fall only, and cottage would retire in 2014.

    If, by "each set," I assume you mean the one and only set that has followed the pattern thus far, and that's the #10199 Toy Shop. One could argue the Bakery also, but there's enough confusion surrounding it right now that nobody really knows.

    So yeah, one set does not a pattern make, and until Winter comes, we won't truly know the fate of any of the village sets (even the Cottage).
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Actually I think the cottage will be the first to break the cycle. 2 more years for that guy. It's a great sidetrack series, and I'm looking forward to this year's model.

    But dangit, that bakery retired a little too early before I could get one.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    What do people think of the Creator Highway Pickup #7347 ? It has just retired and I personally like the set but have doubts about future resale potential, at the moment they are selling a lot below the Australian RRP of $99.99.

    I can pick some of these up at $39.90 which is a pretty good deal but this type of set is not the type to make huge gains IMO, so I have only bought two at the moment and will just use for parts etc. if prices don't rise.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    doriansdad said:


    I am expecting both sets to return in the fall. Just MO. Don't want to get suckered into this line like I did with Fire Brigade and the modulars lol....there are other sets that I am 100% sure will retire this year and give me my required rate of return so while I do thank the Toy Shop for the $$$ last year it is thanks but no thanks to the rest of the lineup going forward.

    Wouldn't be 4 sets on the market (assuming we get a new one, too) at the same time too much for such a niche theme? And all 4 at pretty high price points. I could see this working only if this year we got only a small inexpensive set.

    The uncertainty with regards to 10216 and 10222 is killing me. I hope we'll get more definite information soon. I managed to pick 4 of 10222 up on the cheap recently and can't decide whether to part them out or to keep them sealed. (If they were sure to return I'd choose parting out, if they were sure to retire I'd choose keeping sealed.) I also have 2 of 10216 and could buy several more but I haven't dared yet because of the rumours that it might still return.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Basta said:

    What do people think of the Creator Highway Pickup #7347 ? It has just retired and I personally like the set but have doubts about future resale potential, at the moment they are selling a lot below the Australian RRP of $99.99.

    It has not retired and won't retire for awhile, probably summer/fall 2014.

    It should do well in the long run, but expect 2 years post retirement to see good money. IMHO...
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    ^ lol, I have obviously been looking up too many sets today while I was doing the rounds of a few stores that had some sets on clearance, must have confused it with the T-Rex #5886 that has the "retired product" label, that I saw for about $46 at the same store. Maybe I should have picked them up, love the T-Rex and I know he is big but the set only has 480 pieces so not sure about it.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    winter_zombie said:

    Hi all
    ive got some inside info after talking to lego direst
    the followings sets and dates are for retire

    10194 emerald night december 2011 (maersk train will replace this item)
    10199 winter toy shop december 2011

    10193 medieval market village december 2012
    10197 fire brigade december 2012
    10216 winter village bakery december 2012

    10219 maersk train december 2013
    10211 grand emporium december 2013
    10214 tower bridge december 2013 (extended due to popularity)
    10217 diagon alley december 2013
    1p218 pet shop december 2013

    I also asked about the new cargo train 3677 and the price is £132.99. this new cargo train will replace the older cargo train.

    hope this helps :)

    link: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/1008/offical-lego-discontinued-dates-direct-from-lego/p1

    The above information was provided 6 months before the first winter themed set (Toy Shop) was retired (June 2011). Notice that they also stated the Winter Bakery would retire in December 2012 as well.

    Some of the other dates are dead wrong (Maersk Train, etc.), but the Winter Themed sets seemed to be accurate. I still think the Winter sets are basically on sale for three seasons (including the year of release and EOL). So...Bakery is gone...Post Office and Cottage are back next year. JMO.
  • BrikingBriking Dorset, UKMember Posts: 767
    ^Bother! I missed out on the opportunity to stock up on FB. Oh, no. Wait...
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