Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

madforLEGO

tensor said:

madforLEGO said:

tensor said:

madforLEGO said:

tensor said:

Nadana86 said:

I don't think so! Nobody wants it now so why would they bother later on. The set just looks to small although the price per piece is okayish.

The only money maker - imo - is Darth Malgus who will definitely fetch a nice price.

Nobody wanted the Cafe Corner when it was out. No interior details, too many red bricks. I guess it's valueless now.

Apples and oranges, trying to compare some rinky dink under 100 SW craft, that is not even part of the original movies, vs a Mod is a bit ridiculous IMO.

Comparing one set against another set that is a mere 1.5 times the msrp, what was I thinking?!? At least one of them had the SW badge. What did the other have? Creator? Oooooo.

Call it ridiculous if you like, but I think you've got a scenario where both were relatively unknown in release, and certainly weren't embraced immediately, only to end up warming shelves here and there. Will the Interceptor do well in the aftermarket? Roll the dice and see.

Sorry I apparently hurt your feelings, but I will call it ridiculous, because many people bought, and still buy, the Cafe Corner, believe it or don't, it is up to you. The reason why it is so expensive is, as others commented, it is the first of its kind, still unique, and again supply and demand and new collectors still want it despite the 'shortcomings'. Whereas everyone is going to try to buy as many of these sets as they can of another example of what essentially is a tie fighter, not part of the original trilogy, and does not strike me as a 'must have'.
As for the 'rare figures' well Lets see if LEGO does not re-release the fig in another set in the future.
The 'original 3' movie related toys will always outsell the new series because of the sentimentality (especially by the parents, ie money holders), which is sorely lacking in the ADHD age, IMO.
Kids forget the 'must have set' in lieu of the next big thing.

Check the recent SW sets that were around 100 bucks at RRP, or worse yet, 50, (How is #7752 doing?) and how many of them have gone crazy? Not many, and the ones that start rising usually wind up being redone as a later edition model (See Sith Infiltrator, or Grieveous Starfighter) which makes earlier version plummet, OR they put the figures (which most people want) into other sometimes cheaper sets. More than likely a Mod is not getting re-done.
So, sure I'll take 'crappy' creator sets, you know: Emerald Nights, Maersk Trains, Cafe Corners, Green Grocers, and even the much maligned FB, over SW line which will either kill itself or keep re-doing everything until there is no market left.

You seem to think I'm defending the Interceptor with some sort of fervor, hardly. It's a really nice set that is worth collecting, but I wouldn't buy any expecting any great resale ROI.

You are also quite mistaken that I'm trying to compare the Interceptor with the Cafe Corner of 2013. I said that the Cafe Corner was not all that hot when it was on the shelves, nor was the Creator line anything to be all excited about back in 2007. Sure people bought it, but only a very astute few saw it then as the game changer that it truly was.

Also, you actually thought I was trashing the Cafe Corner by listing it's shortcomings? I actually love the set, and was being sarcastic for the sake of comparison. And yes, Creator of 2007 vs. 2013 was another comparison. Creator pre-2007 was quite bland. All the wonderful sets you mention came out after, so they don't really enter in. They, along with the modulars, were actually part of what elevated Creator to the level it is at today.

So basically, a person in 2007 looking at Cafe Corner didn't have a lot of basis or precedence to actually see the solid gold that was sitting on the shelf in front of them. They were looking at a set that either appealed to them or it didn't, and they bought it based on that criteria alone.

If I'm going to take anything personally, It'll be your comment about the "much maligned" FB, which I think is the 2nd best modular there is behind the GG. But I'm not, and I'm cool with your opinion of it :)

Points taken, but I still say I think many people saw the potential and interest in Cafe Corner back when it first came out. I think people forget that it was last out 6 years ago, and any supplies that were out there are dwindling, but it also shows the continual demand of such a set, even GG demand is increasing. I just see more people showing interest in the mods than any SW set that could easily be redone in the future, whereas I just do not see them remaking any mods any time soon at least.
If anything CC reminded people that yes LEGO sets do get discontinued and do not last forever.

I did not trash FB; a lot of people do though. I still think that despite of its numbers it will still be popular after EOL as it has great colors, a garage door and it is a Fire Dept after all.

madforLEGO

AvengerDr said:

What do you guys think of the Y-Wing? #9495? Could that be going to retire soon? It is one of the iconic OT ship.

The Slave I #8097 (retired last year) has begun appreciating, that is, it is slowly being sold for near RRP prices. If only the same could also apply to #10215 :D

Slave 1 is a strange one, it was selling for a lot before and around Christmas (about 150 at times), but plummeted afterward now it is climbing back around 100 I believe. I think it did not help that these were easily had for about 55-60 dollars at many different sites.

Pitfall69

^I personally think you can't go wrong with Original Trilogy sets. Even if they get re made. Of course, the more iconic ships will always be more sought after.

wagnerml2

Cafe Corner came out before there was tremendous speculation on EOLed sets. It was a much smaller group. Just the change in the climate of speculating on these sets over the last few years makes comparing anything difficult regardless of the theme.

y2josh

Pitfall69 said:

^I personally think you can't go wrong with Original Trilogy sets. Even if they get re made. Of course, the more iconic ships will always be more sought after.

On some ships, sure, but I would never even consider keeping a stash of X-Wings (any version), unless they were available at huge discounts.

littlepuppi

Guys, thanks for the extensive feedback! I took 4, one for me, 3 for later resale.. I cant see myself "losing" at £45 and the comments here tippped me... Picking them up on Saturday :D Must say I DO like the model, but also take the point, that it may not be well know..

madforLEGO

y2josh said:

Pitfall69 said:

^I personally think you can't go wrong with Original Trilogy sets. Even if they get re made. Of course, the more iconic ships will always be more sought after.

On some ships, sure, but I would never even consider keeping a stash of X-Wings (any version), unless they were available at huge discounts.

Unless you are planning a large assault on the Death Star I would highly advise buying any X Wings in large quantities.
So yeah there are exceptions to the rule in term of reselling, but the reason why LEGO keeps them running forever is again people love the X Wing set.

jcb193

Getting so sick of ebay. The last four transactions I've done on ebay are with fake buyers. Is there anyway to increase the threshold for a buyer?

Pitfall69

Wow, that's crazy.

jcb193

Yeah, it seems any transaction over $300 is a buyer with 0-3 feedback. I won't even ship stuff right away, because I know within a few days I'll get a paypal request not to send it. Tempted to send it anyway and get the money eventually.....

pharmjod

I wouldn't do that. I had a set that I mailed to Canada because it was purchased and paid for immediately. Got a dispute and lost the money. PayPal is saying that the item has been returned to me, but I have no idea if it is still in the post office in Canada or on it's way back. Either way I'll be out the return postage. So much for seller protection.

cloaked7

^^ @jcb193 I guess you know, but you can restrict people from bidding that don't meet certain criteria. But, eBay doesn't allow you full control over what they are. For instance, you can only block a bidder that has an overall negative feedback score of -1, -2, -4. You can't, for instance, only allow bidders of +10, +20, or +30 or higher. At least I don't know how to. That's unfortunate. You can't be very discriminating, which it too bad, IMHO. Course, you can block a specific person and block anyone you want. But, that's reactive and not proactive.

Unfortunately, eBay makes it easy for scammers, thieves, and such to both buy and sell. And, it takes forever for eBay to deal with such individuals. And, it doesn't help, because most people will give a seller positive feedback, or refrain from leaving negative feedback for fear of revenge, even if they pretty much know the seller is selling stolen goods, etc.

It is all very frustrating. I know.

prevere

Nobody knows this answer for sure either way, but I'm curious on the gut instinct. I actually think Lego speculation might be peaking this year, and start to decline.

jcb193 said:

Yeah, it seems any transaction over $300 is a buyer with 0-3 feedback. I won't even ship stuff right away, because I know within a few days I'll get a paypal request not to send it. Tempted to send it anyway and get the money eventually.....

I hear ya. Just relisted a VW Beetle that I sold to someone in Europe with zero feedback. I always email to be nice and say, "I see you're new to eBay, happy to help, yada yada yada". I never get a response. So within a week I post a cancelation request and repost immediately.

At least ... eBay will allow an item to stay active until payment is received.

pharmjod

^That is a good idea and one that I will start using. It is frustrating though because I try to comply with the higher standards in eBay to qualify for the discounts on final value fees. Many more disputes where I'm not backed up and I will have to start rethinking my whole strategy.

Farmer_John

jcb193 said:

Yeah, it seems any transaction over $300 is a buyer with 0-3 feedback. I won't even ship stuff right away, because I know within a few days I'll get a paypal request not to send it. Tempted to send it anyway and get the money eventually.....

Can you just state in the auction that you will ship to those with less than XX feedback a week after the auction's completion to make sure the payment clears through paypal? I would think that would deter some of the riff-raff. Just a thought...

BigKid

I try to get around the fake bidders by using buy it nows with immediate payment expected. Like Prevere said eBay will keep your auction going until you receive payment in Paypal. This eliminates a lot of headaches. Although the best offer nibbles get a lot more interesting. :)

BigKid

Pitfall69

^I don't do auctions. I don't know why people still do them?

TheLoneTensor

Pitfall69 said:

^I don't do auctions. I don't know why people still do them?

Because they are quite profitable when done with care, experience and proper precautions. Nothing in this world is risk free, it's simply a matter of reducing it as much as you feasibly can.

y2josh

Pitfall69 said:

^I don't do auctions. I don't know why people still do them?

I do auctions all the time, simply because they're quicker and net me more due to insanely lower fees. I'll be cutting out auctions altogether here in a couple weeks, though, as they're dropping the hugely reduced fees, which will obviously offset the benefit of selling something for a couple bucks less than I could have by setting my own price.

LegoFanTexas

^ You probably know this, but auctions soon will have the same fees as BIN.

Frankly, the benefit to BIN is to require instant payment, so you really don't have to deal with it.

I haven't done an auction in awhile, and I don't miss them one bit.

dragonhawk

^^ For item under $100, auctions has lower FVF than FP. For $100 item with free shipping, auction's FVF is $9 and FP's FVF is $8.50

I do not see any benefit of auctions over fixed price for items over $100. After the new pricing structure, there is really no benefit in doing auctions.

y2josh

^If you have an eBay store, the auction fees are ridiculously low. But LFT is right - they're dropping that benefit in a few weeks, which is while I'll be dropping my auction-style listings right along with it.

jcb193

I guess for me the biggest telltale of a scammer is when they buy one of my more ludicrously priced auctions and don't even make a lower offer first.

Most of my domestic scammers always pay immediately. But I might switch to immediate payment, as I also get a lot of international buyers that buy the auction and then don't pay (I guess they don't see the shipping costs?)

y2josh

jcb193 said:

I guess for me the biggest telltale of a scammer is when they buy one of my more ludicrously priced auctions and don't even make a lower offer first.

Most of my domestic scammers always pay immediately. But I might switch to immediate payment, as I also get a lot of international buyers that buy the auction and then don't pay (I guess they don't see the shipping costs?)

I haven't had an international scammer yet, but I'm dreading the day I do, as tracking down the signature confirmation for some countries looks like it may be impossible, and I believe PayPal requires that in order to 100% back you on a fraudulent chargeback. Someone else may be able to straighten me out on that, though.

BigKid

y2josh said:

jcb193 said:

I guess for me the biggest telltale of a scammer is when they buy one of my more ludicrously priced auctions and don't even make a lower offer first.

Most of my domestic scammers always pay immediately. But I might switch to immediate payment, as I also get a lot of international buyers that buy the auction and then don't pay (I guess they don't see the shipping costs?)

I haven't had an international scammer yet, but I'm dreading the day I do, as tracking down the signature confirmation for some countries looks like it may be impossible, and I believe PayPal requires that in order to 100% back you on a fraudulent chargeback. Someone else may be able to straighten me out on that, though.

Most international buyers are legit as are most domestic. To me it's just not worth the hassle dealing with international buyers as Paypal makes it difficult to recover funds if things go wrong. Customs, lack of tracking, communication, etc. are just some of my reasons. I know I lose out on sales because of this, but it's just a lot easier for me personally.

BigKid

BigKid

jcb193 said:

I guess for me the biggest telltale of a scammer is when they buy one of my more ludicrously priced auctions and don't even make a lower offer first.

Most of my domestic scammers always pay immediately. But I might switch to immediate payment, as I also get a lot of international buyers that buy the auction and then don't pay (I guess they don't see the shipping costs?)

You can adjust your eBay settings to only allow bidders to win a certain amount of auctions before it blocks them. That way if you get someone harassing you they can only do so much damage. I have mine set to 5 I believe. Look under your selling preferences in eBay.

BigKid

Coolsplash

For the Internation sellers I would only say that not everyone is the same. Scammers and frauds can be found everywhere, even in local US. I'm sorry but denying selling to International sellers cause of Paypal and custom rules is not fair....I have been buying from almost every part of the world and not a single trade went bad...and I myself have sold stuff to almost every part of the world, twice it went bad, but sooner or later it turned out well....just saying...

Billybrown

Pitfall69 said:

^I don't do auctions. I don't know why people still do them?

Most of my ebay purchases have been through Auctions because I find I often get a bargain when bidding 2 seconds from the end. I got into Lego this way as I bought a pallet of toys for £150 in an auction without knowing exactly what was in it, so pot luck and all were new. One of the items was the Tower Bridge...and the rest is history as they say.

Gavin83

Coolsplash said:

International sellers cause of Paypal and custom rules is not fair

Fair doesn't come into it, its the sellers choice who they sell to. The fact of the matter is dealing with any issues internationally is more troublesome and potentially more expensive than domestic. I live in the UK and while I'll ship to some European countries I certainly wouldn't ship further than that, including the US. The postage costs are just too high and if I'm forced to refund both the item and the postage cost I'll be considerably out of pocket. In a dispute, due to Ebay/Paypal often siding with the buyer unless sufficent evidence is given and this evidence being harder to produce for international sales it just isn't worth the effort. Don't deem the sellers as 'unfair' for wanting to protect themselves, blame Ebay and the postal services for creating this situation.

Billybrown said:

Most of my ebay purchases have been through Auctions because I find I often get a bargain when bidding 2 seconds from the end. I got into Lego this way as I bought a pallet of toys for £150 in an auction without knowing exactly what was in it, so pot luck and all were new. One of the items was the Tower Bridge...and the rest is history as they say.

Once again this comes down to ebay generally being more of an advantage to the buyer than the seller. As a seller it's far easier to list an item such as lego under BIN and it'll only become more so once the rules come into place. If I were to sell lego on ebay I wouldn't bother with an auction either, it has so many disadvantages compared to BIN.

However ironically if I were to buy lego on ebay I wouldn't generally bother with BIN. I find that most sellers generally set their prices far too high and you can make a considerable saving buying the item through an auction listing instead.

madforLEGO

BigKid said:

y2josh said:

jcb193 said:

I guess for me the biggest telltale of a scammer is when they buy one of my more ludicrously priced auctions and don't even make a lower offer first.

Most of my domestic scammers always pay immediately. But I might switch to immediate payment, as I also get a lot of international buyers that buy the auction and then don't pay (I guess they don't see the shipping costs?)

I haven't had an international scammer yet, but I'm dreading the day I do, as tracking down the signature confirmation for some countries looks like it may be impossible, and I believe PayPal requires that in order to 100% back you on a fraudulent chargeback. Someone else may be able to straighten me out on that, though.

Most international buyers are legit as are most domestic. To me it's just not worth the hassle dealing with international buyers as Paypal makes it difficult to recover funds if things go wrong. Customs, lack of tracking, communication, etc. are just some of my reasons. I know I lose out on sales because of this, but it's just a lot easier for me personally.

BigKid

Actually in my experience I have had FAR more overseas buyers re-neg on purchases, I think it is because they have nothing to lose, they open an another account up (which is why people see 0 feedback usually) and basically buy it first without asking for a shipping price, then get the shipping price and see it is too much, then never answer. At least that has what I have always believed because what other reason is there really? I mean I put ASK for a price before buying about apparently that does not translate in other countries or something. That and like others I have heard way too many scary stories about theft and fraud overseas.
To be fair, when I sold stuff overseas it was fine, no issues, but I just decided it is not worth it if something happens.

The other joke is that the buyer requirements are ridiculous limiting those with negative feedback from bidding/buying, especially since the only why you can get a neg is if you are a seller now. i guess if you do not want a seller buying you items and they happen to have negative feedback then you are all set.
Buyers cannot get negative feedback, so what is up with that requirement then?

prevere

I will say I do sell a lot of items overseas from U.S. Most of the time it's fine because it's small stuff - and I clearly state that it's gonna be about 4-5 weeks given customs hold.

Anything $50 and above goes Priority and I insure at my own cost.

Pitfall69

Billybrown said:

Pitfall69 said:

^I don't do auctions. I don't know why people still do them?

Most of my ebay purchases have been through Auctions because I find I often get a bargain when bidding 2 seconds from the end. I got into Lego this way as I bought a pallet of toys for £150 in an auction without knowing exactly what was in it, so pot luck and all were new. One of the items was the Tower Bridge...and the rest is history as they say.

I should have said "I don't know why any of us Bricksetters would use auctions to sell their items"

binaryeye

This may be the wrong thread because I'm not interested in the aftermarket value, but any guesses as to when 7965 will be retired?

FollowsClosely

It could go this summer/fall, and most likely will. But, I can also see this iconic ship stick around a few extra production cycles. If you want it, I would not put it off past the May sale.

Ma1234

FollowsClosely said:

It could go this summer/fall, and most likely will. But, I can also see this iconic ship stick around a few extra production cycles. If you want it, I would not put it off past the May sale.

LEGO discontinues the majority of its assortment once per year: in late fall. That's it.

There are "series" and seasonal sets that discontinue at various times, but MF will be good through summer and into fall, like everything else in the regular, retail assortment.

LegoFanTexas

^ That is mostly true, but there is a spring/summer discontinuation as well.

Pitfall69

Has anyone NOT gotten this set? I mean, cmon, what are you waiting for?

LegoFanTexas

Pitfall69 said:

Has anyone NOT gotten this set? I mean, cmon, what are you waiting for?

It's ok, we need people to not buy it now, so they can buy it for $300 from us later. :)

It has been out for 2 years now, so anyone who hasn't bought it, really has no one to blame but themselves.

They should stop asking, "will this be retired soon, can I wait to buy it", and just go buy the bloody thing.

Pitfall69

^That goes for any set you desire that has been out for quite some time.

BrickDaddy

I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion here of the bait and switch that happened last Christmas with 10222 and 10216. We all expected 10216 to go, and now that set is just "sold out," whereas 10222 is now labeled a "retired product." As far as I know, no set with the retired label on [email protected] has ever returned and if 10222 does, it would be the first.

The switch must have caught many resellers off guard so I'm fairly confident much stocking up didn't happen last year. If it doesn't return I can see significant gains on the existing secondary market supplies given the surge in holiday demand and lack of normal reseller stock up.. It's surprising many people haven't picked up on this yet and the set can still be had for the low-mid $80 range on Bricklink.

binaryeye

Pitfall69 said:

Has anyone NOT gotten this set? I mean, cmon, what are you waiting for?

I got into LEGO less than a year ago (as an adult, anyway), and for most of that time wasn't interested in the Star Wars theme. Even so, I know this set was down to ~$100 late last year. If it's likely to be around a bit longer, I'll wait for something better than RRP. If I wait too long, LEGO will surely make another similar to it. It's the Millennium Falcon and the main cast of characters, after all. And lastly, my LEGO budget is likely far below the average of those who roam these forums.

doriansdad

BrickDaddy said:

I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion here of the bait and switch that happened last Christmas with 10222 and 10216. We all expected 10216 to go, and now that set is just "sold out," whereas 10222 is now labeled a "retired product." As far as I know, no set with the retired label on [email protected] has ever returned and if 10222 does, it would be the first.

The switch must have caught many resellers off guard so I'm fairly confident much stocking up didn't happen last year. If it doesn't return I can see significant gains on the existing secondary market supplies given the surge in holiday demand and lack of normal reseller stock up.. It's surprising many people haven't picked up on this yet and the set can still be had for the low-mid $80 range on Bricklink.

I am expecting both sets to return in the fall. Just MO. Don't want to get suckered into this line like I did with Fire Brigade and the modulars lol....there are other sets that I am 100% sure will retire this year and give me my required rate of return so while I do thank the Toy Shop for the $$$ last year it is thanks but no thanks to the rest of the lineup going forward.

Pitfall69

^You'd be surprised. I bet a few of us would sell off our first born for a UCS MF ;)

prevere

doriansdad said:

BrickDaddy said:

I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion here of the bait and switch that happened last Christmas with 10222 and 10216. We all expected 10216 to go, and now that set is just "sold out," whereas 10222 is now labeled a "retired product." As far as I know, no set with the retired label on [email protected] has ever returned and if 10222 does, it would be the first.

The switch must have caught many resellers off guard so I'm fairly confident much stocking up didn't happen last year. If it doesn't return I can see significant gains on the existing secondary market supplies given the surge in holiday demand and lack of normal reseller stock up.. It's surprising many people haven't picked up on this yet and the set can still be had for the low-mid $80 range on Bricklink.

I am expecting both sets to return in the fall. Just MO. Don't want to get suckered into this line like I did with Fire Brigade and the modulars lol....there are other sets that I am 100% sure will retire this year and give me my required rate of return so while I do thank the Toy Shop for the $$$ last year it is thanks but no thanks to the rest of the lineup going forward.

This line has so far been a 2-year run for each set. If that holds true, bakery is gone, post office is back for one fall only, and cottage would retire in 2014.

TheLoneTensor

prevere said:

This line has so far been a 2-year run for each set. If that holds true, bakery is gone, post office is back for one fall only, and cottage would retire in 2014.

If, by "each set," I assume you mean the one and only set that has followed the pattern thus far, and that's the #10199 Toy Shop. One could argue the Bakery also, but there's enough confusion surrounding it right now that nobody really knows.

So yeah, one set does not a pattern make, and until Winter comes, we won't truly know the fate of any of the village sets (even the Cottage).

prevere

Actually I think the cottage will be the first to break the cycle. 2 more years for that guy. It's a great sidetrack series, and I'm looking forward to this year's model.

But dangit, that bakery retired a little too early before I could get one.

Basta

What do people think of the Creator Highway Pickup #7347 ? It has just retired and I personally like the set but have doubts about future resale potential, at the moment they are selling a lot below the Australian RRP of $99.99.

I can pick some of these up at $39.90 which is a pretty good deal but this type of set is not the type to make huge gains IMO, so I have only bought two at the moment and will just use for parts etc. if prices don't rise.

Hardrada

doriansdad said:

I am expecting both sets to return in the fall. Just MO. Don't want to get suckered into this line like I did with Fire Brigade and the modulars lol....there are other sets that I am 100% sure will retire this year and give me my required rate of return so while I do thank the Toy Shop for the $$$ last year it is thanks but no thanks to the rest of the lineup going forward.

Wouldn't be 4 sets on the market (assuming we get a new one, too) at the same time too much for such a niche theme? And all 4 at pretty high price points. I could see this working only if this year we got only a small inexpensive set.

The uncertainty with regards to 10216 and 10222 is killing me. I hope we'll get more definite information soon. I managed to pick 4 of 10222 up on the cheap recently and can't decide whether to part them out or to keep them sealed. (If they were sure to return I'd choose parting out, if they were sure to retire I'd choose keeping sealed.) I also have 2 of 10216 and could buy several more but I haven't dared yet because of the rumours that it might still return.

LegoFanTexas

Basta said:

What do people think of the Creator Highway Pickup #7347 ? It has just retired and I personally like the set but have doubts about future resale potential, at the moment they are selling a lot below the Australian RRP of $99.99.

It has not retired and won't retire for awhile, probably summer/fall 2014.

It should do well in the long run, but expect 2 years post retirement to see good money. IMHO...

Basta

^ lol, I have obviously been looking up too many sets today while I was doing the rounds of a few stores that had some sets on clearance, must have confused it with the T-Rex #5886 that has the "retired product" label, that I saw for about $46 at the same store. Maybe I should have picked them up, love the T-Rex and I know he is big but the set only has 480 pieces so not sure about it.