Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

roxio

Any views on potential for 8069 Backhoe ?
Can still be had at 20% off from retailers , 3+ months after [email protected] EOL.

FatMatt

Can still be had at 20% off from retailers , 3+ months after [email protected] EOL.

That kind of sums it up, doesn't it?:)

TheLoneTensor

I've found that in general, only the flagship-level Technic appreciate to any great extent.

roxio

^Probably right, l've only ever dabbled with the Unimog for resale (and the 9395 truck when Tesco accidentally shifted them for £6 lol )

nkx1

tensor said:

I've found that in general, only the flagship-level Technic appreciate to any great extent.

I agree. The smaller sets aren't generally worth the effort (just like many other themes). There are always exceptions, though, such as the #8070 Supercar. I bought a bunch of them at discount and was able to sell them for about a $40 average profit each, after shipping, fees, taxes etc. $40 isn't much, but if you sell 15-20 of them, it's not half bad for little effort. Though I highly doubt you would ever clear $40 on #8069 Backhoe (you'd probably be lucky to get msrp).

Diggydoes

I never thought of the "friends"-line as a nice after-market theme,but the new "heartlake-high"set that's not released yet looks like it will have so much appeal to all those into glee-high-school-musical-stuff! Add the rare light-yellow coloured bricks it comes with this looks like a home-run!

Hardrada

So what is the verdict on the Winter Village themed sets now that the dust has settled a bit? As far as I know the general sentiment is that the Bakery was EOLed while the Post Office will return for another run during the next holiday season. However I've read rumours before that both were discontinued and even rumours that in fact the PO was discontinued and the Bakery kept on for another year as it was the better seller.

Is there any definite knowledge as of now?

prevere

Super Heroes - early retiree candidates

Paralleling LOTR and SH here. I find it interesting that Weathertop is sold out but no other LOTR set has. There is always a set or two that retires just a tad earlier before the rest of the wave.

Who will be that first early retiree for SH?

leego76

#6873 Doc Ock Ambush and #6857 Dynamic Duo Funhouse Escape are the two exclusive sets from 2012? Doc Ock probably doesn't sell as well as the Funhouse Escape so maybe that's first to go?

Otherwise #6864 Two-Face Chase (for the batmobile) and #6866 (for the Magneto / Wolverine figs) would be my other choices for a bit of 'value' from 2012. And #76001 Bat vs Bane and #76005 Daily Bugle are the best of the 2013 sets imho so far. Are too many Iron Man sets is going to hurt the price of those figs in the long run?

Most of the series have been discounted heavily in the UK (40%ish) at some point but I don't see massive returns on any of these in the short-term.

prevere

Two-Face feels like it might retire early. It's being pushed out of retailers by Bat vs. Bane, IMHO.

^And yes on the Iron Man sets. There are some differences with his arc pattern torso which helps. However, he is the most popular Super Hero for kids besides Batman, so these sets could all triple by Xmas 2014 or 2015.

Of course, I fail to mention the "Hero Factory" style SH sets. Most, if not all, are retired. Of course, Iron Man is already at 3x above retail. I was an idiot for not realizing that would be a good one.

Renny

You are not alone @prevere. I took one look at those Hero Factory sets and thought that they were the ugliest things I had ever seen Lego create and that they would not yield a good return after they were discontinued. I still won't budge on buying any of the others though ;)

TheLoneTensor

Renny said:

You are not alone @prevere. I took one look at those Hero Factory sets and thought that they were the ugliest things I had ever seen Lego create and that they would not yield a good return after they were discontinued. I still won't budge on buying any of the others though ;)

I'm with you on the ugliness. If you had told me back then that the Iron Man ones would be going for 3x, I still would not have bought any :)

prevere

To be fair. Iron Man is 3x now because it sold out first, and wasn't available largely in the clearance isles. I for one was waiting for them on clearance. That's where the rest of them were left to sit forever.

Bumblepants

^plus he lends himself well to the Bionicle style build being robotic. The other superheros, not so much.

y2josh

I agree with @leego76 - The Batmobile and the Wolverine sets are the only sets I really see doing well enough to notice. At least as long as the line is active, anyway. I'm tempted to throw the Superman set in there, but I feel like the Man of Steel sets may adversely impact the short-term value there.

Unless Wonder Woman and Lex Luthor are more popular than I think... I'm really not a DC guy.

Renny

I think the Superman Lex Luthor Power Armor set should do reasonably well (I just bought a bunch). It's already a really nice value I feel at msrp of $20 with 200 pieces and 3 nice mini figures. Should definitely go up to at least $35 or $40.

BuriedinBricks

The Lex Luthor Power Armor set is excellent and easily one my favorites of the first wave. I know I'm watching for them to be on sale at some point.

littlepuppi

Guys, what are people's thoughts on the sith fury class tie #9500 . Been offered a few for 45 pounds each , new sealed....

Bumblepants

Hard to know with the #9500 . Great looking ship and looks like a fun build with some unique minifigs. Downside is the high RRP and the Old Republic status makes the characters and ship far less known to the general public. The OR sets will probably have a shorter lifespan than typical SW sets (but that is just a guess). I have trouble seeing it double RRP but for a good sale price like what you are offered I can't help but think you would make a good profit a year or so down the line.

Briking

^ Amazon had them at £47.23 a few weeks back. Asda still has it at that price on-line, but that doesn't include shipping (unless delivered to store). £45 looks like a decent discount.

Diggydoes

The #9500 has been on sale almost the same day it was released in Germany! Retail is 100€ but you can get it constantly for 70€(or even 60€)! So i'm not really sure if it perform that well! The piece selection is also pretty lame and i guess that the current BP's come with the "upgraded"version (printed legs)of the Sith-Troopers doesn't help on the after-market!

mathew

Sith Fury is a killer model and my favorite to pick up and swoosh around. It's a much more interesting ship than say the Tie-Fighter or X-Wing. It's an interesting build utilizing parts that you don't see in too many other sets. I think it will do well long term.

Nadana86

I don't think so! Nobody wants it now so why would they bother later on. The set just looks to small although the price per piece is okayish.

The only money maker - imo - is Darth Malgus who will definitely fetch a nice price.

TheLoneTensor

Nadana86 said:

I don't think so! Nobody wants it now so why would they bother later on. The set just looks to small although the price per piece is okayish.

The only money maker - imo - is Darth Malgus who will definitely fetch a nice price.

Nobody wanted the Cafe Corner when it was out. No interior details, too many red bricks. I guess it's valueless now.

mathew

Nadana86 said:

I don't think so! Nobody wants it now so why would they bother later on. The set just looks to small although the price per piece is okayish.

The only money maker - imo - is Darth Malgus who will definitely fetch a nice price.

Actually the price per piece sucks. At $90 I don't think it's a great value. I paid $50 so I'm happy. It has been on sale regularly for $70 or less on Amazon which I think is a fair price.

I disagree with your statement "Nobody wants it now so why would they bother later on.." Overall most people think it's a great model with nice minifigs. It's just the price that is holding people back.

LegoFanTexas

The biggest problem with 9500 is that it is twice the price of the TIE Fighter, and everyone knows what that ship is.

The market for it is far, far smaller than TIE Fighter, so when that one goes, it should do much better.

TIE Defender had the same problem, it was a model from a computer game that was never seen in the movies, so the market was quite limited. It also had a lousy price per part.

madforLEGO

tensor said:

Nadana86 said:

I don't think so! Nobody wants it now so why would they bother later on. The set just looks to small although the price per piece is okayish.

The only money maker - imo - is Darth Malgus who will definitely fetch a nice price.

Nobody wanted the Cafe Corner when it was out. No interior details, too many red bricks. I guess it's valueless now.

Apples and oranges, trying to compare some rinky dink under 100 SW craft, that is not even part of the original movies, vs a Mod is a bit ridiculous IMO.

Pitfall69

Wow. Ok. I thought I was in a bad mood because it is tax time for me...lol.

The ship is fine, but unless you have to have every Star Wars Lego set, the casual Star Wars Lego fan will probably pass. I only picked up one because it was on sale for $49 and some change. I only bought 2 Tie Defenders as well. The Micro Machines Action Fleet Tie Defender is a rare set and has collectability, but I'm not sure the Lego version will be...ever.

TheLoneTensor

I never realized there was such hatred for the Interceptor. Surprising, I think it's a sturdy and decent ship.

The TIE Defender, as much as I loved it in the game (a TIE with torpedoes and shields!) was a crappy and fragile Lego design all around. You want apples and oranges? There's your pineapples and bananas.

TheLoneTensor

madforLEGO said:

tensor said:

Nadana86 said:

I don't think so! Nobody wants it now so why would they bother later on. The set just looks to small although the price per piece is okayish.

The only money maker - imo - is Darth Malgus who will definitely fetch a nice price.

Nobody wanted the Cafe Corner when it was out. No interior details, too many red bricks. I guess it's valueless now.

Apples and oranges, trying to compare some rinky dink under 100 SW craft, that is not even part of the original movies, vs a Mod is a bit ridiculous IMO.

Comparing one set against another set that is a mere 1.5 times the msrp, what was I thinking?!? At least one of them had the SW badge. What did the other have? Creator? Oooooo.

Call it ridiculous if you like, but I think you've got a scenario where both were relatively unknown in release, and certainly weren't embraced immediately, only to end up warming shelves here and there. Will the Interceptor do well in the aftermarket? Roll the dice and see.

mathew

I'm bit of an odd duck. I mainly collect what appeals to me. I like the Sith Infiltrator because of its design. I've never played the game and know little to nothing about Darth Malgus.

dougts

The Sith ship is a great design, a nice build, and very sturdy and swooshable. forget the Star Wars label - it's a great LEGO set. I love it for that reason.

I hate hate hate hate it as a resell item for all the obvious reasons: only 3 figs on a $90 RRP set, only 1 of which is named and he is a NPC in an MMO, not present in films/tv shows. The set isn't iconic to the general populace and star wars fans, so where's the market for this set 2-3+ years down the road? I don't see much of one.

And yes, comparing it to the initial offering in what has since become the quintessential AFOL collector series is absolutely ludicrous. This ship doesn't have the potential to become anywhere near that: It's not going to be the "first" of any collection, it's not even part of a series of anything, unless you count EVERY LEGO star wars set made. Someone coming new into the hobby isn't likely up to that challenge and expense, and I suspect it would be pretty far down the collection list for SW fans who want to start collecting LEGO sets a year or two from now. So again, it's a pretty limited aftermarket appeal.

LegoFanTexas

^ This, all of this...

9500 is a great set to buy at a discount and have fun building, but it has almost no resale potential unless you get it for 50% off.

Basta

^ & ^^ Unless of course they somwhow incorporate the Sith Fury-class Interceptor into one of the many new movies to be made :/

dougts

^ in which case it would get remade with a new design anyways...

roxio

better comparison for 9500 would be #7672 Rogue Shadow which can be had over 3 years after EOL for not much over RRP

binaryeye

tensor said:

The TIE Defender, as much as I loved it in the game (a TIE with torpedoes and shields!) was a crappy and fragile Lego design all around.

Didn't the TIE Defender have a hyperdrive, too? Anyway, even as an impressionable teen who loved Star Wars, I thought the TIE Defender looked ridiculous when I first saw it (in the game). Not only is it not iconic, it doesn't look good.

roxio said:

better comparison for 9500 would be #7672 Rogue Shadow which can be had over 3 years after EOL for not much over RRP

#9500 does look quite a bit better than #7672, though.

mathew

One thing that Lego could do with a model like #9500 is include a stand of some kind like they do with the UCS.

AvengerDr

^ I have been buying some trans-clear 2x2 round bricks to use as support for those ships that lack it. Beneath the landspeeder and the A-Wing they add a nice touch.

Briking

#9526 Palpatine's Arrest was a fun little build the other week when I had to re-assemble a few of my youngest's sets. Personally I can see it doing well in the after-life.

It has never been below RRP on any of the European Amazon sites although it's been out for nearly 9 months now. Is it likely to be on a sale at some point?

Bandit

Just a matter of time till TRU clearances these out for half price in the US. :)

dragonhawk

^^ Didn't TRU sell 9526 for $75 plus bogo50 a few weeks ago ?

ETA: oops, I just saw that you are not US based

Brickarmor

@Briking Is it not TRU exclusive in Europe as well? It is here in the US, so no Amazon discounts.

madforLEGO

tensor said:

madforLEGO said:

tensor said:

Nadana86 said:

I don't think so! Nobody wants it now so why would they bother later on. The set just looks to small although the price per piece is okayish.

The only money maker - imo - is Darth Malgus who will definitely fetch a nice price.

Nobody wanted the Cafe Corner when it was out. No interior details, too many red bricks. I guess it's valueless now.

Apples and oranges, trying to compare some rinky dink under 100 SW craft, that is not even part of the original movies, vs a Mod is a bit ridiculous IMO.

Comparing one set against another set that is a mere 1.5 times the msrp, what was I thinking?!? At least one of them had the SW badge. What did the other have? Creator? Oooooo.

Call it ridiculous if you like, but I think you've got a scenario where both were relatively unknown in release, and certainly weren't embraced immediately, only to end up warming shelves here and there. Will the Interceptor do well in the aftermarket? Roll the dice and see.

Sorry I apparently hurt your feelings, but I will call it ridiculous, because many people bought, and still buy, the Cafe Corner, believe it or don't, it is up to you. The reason why it is so expensive is, as others commented, it is the first of its kind, still unique, and again supply and demand and new collectors still want it despite the 'shortcomings'. Whereas everyone is going to try to buy as many of these sets as they can of another example of what essentially is a tie fighter, not part of the original trilogy, and does not strike me as a 'must have'.
As for the 'rare figures' well Lets see if LEGO does not re-release the fig in another set in the future.
The 'original 3' movie related toys will always outsell the new series because of the sentimentality (especially by the parents, ie money holders), which is sorely lacking in the ADHD age, IMO.
Kids forget the 'must have set' in lieu of the next big thing.

Check the recent SW sets that were around 100 bucks at RRP, or worse yet, 50, (How is #7752 doing?) and how many of them have gone crazy? Not many, and the ones that start rising usually wind up being redone as a later edition model (See Sith Infiltrator, or Grieveous Starfighter) which makes earlier version plummet, OR they put the figures (which most people want) into other sometimes cheaper sets. More than likely a Mod is not getting re-done.
So, sure I'll take 'crappy' creator sets, you know: Emerald Nights, Maersk Trains, Cafe Corners, Green Grocers, and even the much maligned FB, over SW line which will either kill itself or keep re-doing everything until there is no market left.

madforLEGO

It appears the initial rush to buy all JP seems to have calmed down. Amazon has them back, albeit at $119.99

Briking

@Brickarmor, that could explain it. I just checked a price comparison site and it only shows up [email protected] and some 3rd party sellers on Amazon. And when I check TRU it is - surprise, surprise - £10 above RRP....

TheLoneTensor

madforLEGO said:

tensor said:

madforLEGO said:

tensor said:

Nadana86 said:

I don't think so! Nobody wants it now so why would they bother later on. The set just looks to small although the price per piece is okayish.

The only money maker - imo - is Darth Malgus who will definitely fetch a nice price.

Nobody wanted the Cafe Corner when it was out. No interior details, too many red bricks. I guess it's valueless now.

Apples and oranges, trying to compare some rinky dink under 100 SW craft, that is not even part of the original movies, vs a Mod is a bit ridiculous IMO.

Comparing one set against another set that is a mere 1.5 times the msrp, what was I thinking?!? At least one of them had the SW badge. What did the other have? Creator? Oooooo.

Call it ridiculous if you like, but I think you've got a scenario where both were relatively unknown in release, and certainly weren't embraced immediately, only to end up warming shelves here and there. Will the Interceptor do well in the aftermarket? Roll the dice and see.

Sorry I apparently hurt your feelings, but I will call it ridiculous, because many people bought, and still buy, the Cafe Corner, believe it or don't, it is up to you. The reason why it is so expensive is, as others commented, it is the first of its kind, still unique, and again supply and demand and new collectors still want it despite the 'shortcomings'. Whereas everyone is going to try to buy as many of these sets as they can of another example of what essentially is a tie fighter, not part of the original trilogy, and does not strike me as a 'must have'.
As for the 'rare figures' well Lets see if LEGO does not re-release the fig in another set in the future.
The 'original 3' movie related toys will always outsell the new series because of the sentimentality (especially by the parents, ie money holders), which is sorely lacking in the ADHD age, IMO.
Kids forget the 'must have set' in lieu of the next big thing.

Check the recent SW sets that were around 100 bucks at RRP, or worse yet, 50, (How is #7752 doing?) and how many of them have gone crazy? Not many, and the ones that start rising usually wind up being redone as a later edition model (See Sith Infiltrator, or Grieveous Starfighter) which makes earlier version plummet, OR they put the figures (which most people want) into other sometimes cheaper sets. More than likely a Mod is not getting re-done.
So, sure I'll take 'crappy' creator sets, you know: Emerald Nights, Maersk Trains, Cafe Corners, Green Grocers, and even the much maligned FB, over SW line which will either kill itself or keep re-doing everything until there is no market left.

You seem to think I'm defending the Interceptor with some sort of fervor, hardly. It's a really nice set that is worth collecting, but I wouldn't buy any expecting any great resale ROI.

You are also quite mistaken that I'm trying to compare the Interceptor with the Cafe Corner of 2013. I said that the Cafe Corner was not all that hot when it was on the shelves, nor was the Creator line anything to be all excited about back in 2007. Sure people bought it, but only a very astute few saw it then as the game changer that it truly was.

Also, you actually thought I was trashing the Cafe Corner by listing it's shortcomings? I actually love the set, and was being sarcastic for the sake of comparison. And yes, Creator of 2007 vs. 2013 was another comparison. Creator pre-2007 was quite bland. All the wonderful sets you mention came out after, so they don't really enter in. They, along with the modulars, were actually part of what elevated Creator to the level it is at today.

So basically, a person in 2007 looking at Cafe Corner didn't have a lot of basis or precedence to actually see the solid gold that was sitting on the shelf in front of them. They were looking at a set that either appealed to them or it didn't, and they bought it based on that criteria alone.

If I'm going to take anything personally, It'll be your comment about the "much maligned" FB, which I think is the 2nd best modular there is behind the GG. But I'm not, and I'm cool with your opinion of it :)

AvengerDr

What do you guys think of the Y-Wing? #9495? Could that be going to retire soon? It is one of the iconic OT ship.

The Slave I #8097 (retired last year) has begun appreciating, that is, it is slowly being sold for near RRP prices. If only the same could also apply to #10215 :D

madforLEGO

tensor said:

madforLEGO said:

tensor said:

madforLEGO said:

tensor said:

Nadana86 said:

I don't think so! Nobody wants it now so why would they bother later on. The set just looks to small although the price per piece is okayish.

The only money maker - imo - is Darth Malgus who will definitely fetch a nice price.

Nobody wanted the Cafe Corner when it was out. No interior details, too many red bricks. I guess it's valueless now.

Apples and oranges, trying to compare some rinky dink under 100 SW craft, that is not even part of the original movies, vs a Mod is a bit ridiculous IMO.

Comparing one set against another set that is a mere 1.5 times the msrp, what was I thinking?!? At least one of them had the SW badge. What did the other have? Creator? Oooooo.

Call it ridiculous if you like, but I think you've got a scenario where both were relatively unknown in release, and certainly weren't embraced immediately, only to end up warming shelves here and there. Will the Interceptor do well in the aftermarket? Roll the dice and see.

Sorry I apparently hurt your feelings, but I will call it ridiculous, because many people bought, and still buy, the Cafe Corner, believe it or don't, it is up to you. The reason why it is so expensive is, as others commented, it is the first of its kind, still unique, and again supply and demand and new collectors still want it despite the 'shortcomings'. Whereas everyone is going to try to buy as many of these sets as they can of another example of what essentially is a tie fighter, not part of the original trilogy, and does not strike me as a 'must have'.
As for the 'rare figures' well Lets see if LEGO does not re-release the fig in another set in the future.
The 'original 3' movie related toys will always outsell the new series because of the sentimentality (especially by the parents, ie money holders), which is sorely lacking in the ADHD age, IMO.
Kids forget the 'must have set' in lieu of the next big thing.

Check the recent SW sets that were around 100 bucks at RRP, or worse yet, 50, (How is #7752 doing?) and how many of them have gone crazy? Not many, and the ones that start rising usually wind up being redone as a later edition model (See Sith Infiltrator, or Grieveous Starfighter) which makes earlier version plummet, OR they put the figures (which most people want) into other sometimes cheaper sets. More than likely a Mod is not getting re-done.
So, sure I'll take 'crappy' creator sets, you know: Emerald Nights, Maersk Trains, Cafe Corners, Green Grocers, and even the much maligned FB, over SW line which will either kill itself or keep re-doing everything until there is no market left.

You seem to think I'm defending the Interceptor with some sort of fervor, hardly. It's a really nice set that is worth collecting, but I wouldn't buy any expecting any great resale ROI.

You are also quite mistaken that I'm trying to compare the Interceptor with the Cafe Corner of 2013. I said that the Cafe Corner was not all that hot when it was on the shelves, nor was the Creator line anything to be all excited about back in 2007. Sure people bought it, but only a very astute few saw it then as the game changer that it truly was.

Also, you actually thought I was trashing the Cafe Corner by listing it's shortcomings? I actually love the set, and was being sarcastic for the sake of comparison. And yes, Creator of 2007 vs. 2013 was another comparison. Creator pre-2007 was quite bland. All the wonderful sets you mention came out after, so they don't really enter in. They, along with the modulars, were actually part of what elevated Creator to the level it is at today.

So basically, a person in 2007 looking at Cafe Corner didn't have a lot of basis or precedence to actually see the solid gold that was sitting on the shelf in front of them. They were looking at a set that either appealed to them or it didn't, and they bought it based on that criteria alone.

If I'm going to take anything personally, It'll be your comment about the "much maligned" FB, which I think is the 2nd best modular there is behind the GG. But I'm not, and I'm cool with your opinion of it :)

Points taken, but I still say I think many people saw the potential and interest in Cafe Corner back when it first came out. I think people forget that it was last out 6 years ago, and any supplies that were out there are dwindling, but it also shows the continual demand of such a set, even GG demand is increasing. I just see more people showing interest in the mods than any SW set that could easily be redone in the future, whereas I just do not see them remaking any mods any time soon at least.
If anything CC reminded people that yes LEGO sets do get discontinued and do not last forever.

I did not trash FB; a lot of people do though. I still think that despite of its numbers it will still be popular after EOL as it has great colors, a garage door and it is a Fire Dept after all.

madforLEGO

AvengerDr said:

What do you guys think of the Y-Wing? #9495? Could that be going to retire soon? It is one of the iconic OT ship.

The Slave I #8097 (retired last year) has begun appreciating, that is, it is slowly being sold for near RRP prices. If only the same could also apply to #10215 :D

Slave 1 is a strange one, it was selling for a lot before and around Christmas (about 150 at times), but plummeted afterward now it is climbing back around 100 I believe. I think it did not help that these were easily had for about 55-60 dollars at many different sites.