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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    richo said:

    I like the Indy sets. Pretty weal on aftermarket too, so easy to pick up.

    Indy sets are weak on the aftermarket? I don't think so. NIB Temple Escapes go for over $200 on ebay.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    I think the Indy sets were really nice and detailed for what they were. and they managed to tap dance around not putting nazis in the set.
    I just think they could have made another wave of sets, oh well, maybe if 5 comes out, the one nice thing about that is if LEGO decides to put our a few more 'classic Indy ' sets
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    AvengerDr said:

    I'm hoping for a brick-built Nazgul, the flying dragon-like creature, with Witchking figure (and Eowyn?). I think that the LOTR set should have good aftermarket value. The LOTR fan-base is perpetual and here to stay. There will be many LOTR-fan who will re-discover lego later down the path.

    Nazgûl/Ringwraiths/Black riders are all the same thing. You're thinking of the fell beasts, which I would guess (if they even make one) would be executed in a fashion similar to the Ninjago dragons.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The LotR/Hobbit books were infinitely better written than HP. Even the author of HP (Rowling) would admit it. That may be the reason HP does better with kids and LotRs does better with AFOLs: kids can connect better with HP.

    TLG should probably focus on less complex themes (HP) since kids drive the bulk of the Lego market. I'm with the previous poster that stated that 2013 is a down year for TLG. I mean, Chima???
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    HP sold very well, why would Lego want to focus less on that?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I think he meant to suggest they focus less on LotR.

    On that note, I think LotR would be more sustainable if they just did maybe a single AFOL-oriented release per quarter or so. The buzz around Orthanc already seems to be much more positive than the general sentiment for the rest of the theme.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734

    The LotR/Hobbit books were infinitely better written than HP. Even the author of HP (Rowling) would admit it. That may be the reason HP does better with kids and LotRs does better with AFOLs: kids can connect better with HP.

    I think it has more to do with the main characters of Harry Potter being kids rather than adults, and there being a connection to the real world rather than a completely fantasy world (hence my earlier comment about low fantasy having more mass appeal).

  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,962
    edited March 2013
    binaryeye said:

    The LotR/Hobbit books were infinitely better written than HP. Even the author of HP (Rowling) would admit it. That may be the reason HP does better with kids and LotRs does better with AFOLs: kids can connect better with HP.

    I think it has more to do with the main characters of Harry Potter being kids rather than adults, and there being a connection to the real world rather than a completely fantasy world (hence my earlier comment about low fantasy having more mass appeal).
    I have to agree with binaryeye on this. I don't think the quality of the writing is the main factor here.
    The main characters of HP being kids, that is a huge part of this.
    In addition, Rowling was genius also in creating a series where she did 'classic' kid book technique of removing parents from the picture. In addition, she used a school environment, and incorporated fantasy/real world. These are three things that can further draw kids in.

    In addition, look at the reading level of these books. The HP books are at an easier reading compared to the Tolkien books. From an 'interest' level standpoint, just a quick look at Scholastic, marks Tolkien books at an interest level of 9th-12th grade, and Harry Potter as 4th - 8th grade.

    I'm not saying younger kids can't and don't read Tolkien. I read it at 10, and so did my daughter, but she also read HP at 8, so Tolkien still came after HP for her.

    There are many valid reasons HP appeals more to kids than Tolkien. Many of the same points can be made with Percy Jackson.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    You can read LOTR at 10, but would you watch the movies at 10?

    Personally, I can't imagine allowing my kids to watch them until they are 16+, they are quite violent, and I try to keep extreme violence away from my kiddos.

    The books are fine since a kid can imagine it any way they want.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    edited March 2013
    ^ my girlfriend let her boy watch the lotr films at 10 I believe, and he loved all three films. I think 16 is on the top side to be honest. I think two of the films are 12 and ones a pg in terms of rating.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    In the US, at least, they're all rated PG-13, which I think is about accurate, though they are pretty graphically violent.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I thought the movies were fine. To be honest, my 7 year old found Empire Strikes back more disturbing. The Wampa chowing down on some "Red meat" then getting his arm sabered off. Then Han cutting open the Taun Taun and stuffing Luke inside. The scene where "Vader" gets his head cut off in the swamp. Han getting tortured then frozen. Then Luke getting his hand cut off. Is this any less violent?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    I thought the movies were fine. To be honest, my 7 year old found Empire Strikes back more disturbing. The Wampa chowing down on some "Red meat" then getting his arm sabered off. Then Han cutting open the Taun Taun and stuffing Luke inside. The scene where "Vader" gets his head cut off in the swamp. Han getting tortured then frozen. Then Luke getting his hand cut off. Is this any less violent?

    Whahuh? Wampa chewing on red meat? I don't know what you're talking about, my VHS tapes don't have that scene!

    Yes, I know you're talking about the special editions, which an old-school purist like me can't bear to watch :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    y2josh said:

    In the US, at least, they're all rated PG-13, which I think is about accurate, though they are pretty graphically violent.

    They are, but that is of course just their opinions. If there were naked women in them, they would be rated R, but I personally believe it should be the other way around.

    Just my opinion, we are each entitled to our own. :)
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Special editions? What are you talking about. Those never happened.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Oh boy!!! Here we go ;)
  • MathBuilderMathBuilder Member Posts: 150
    Before people go on tangents about SW, let me put you back on topic.
    When is FB EOLing? :p
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,766
    Towards the end of the year. :o)
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    FB eol'd last week, you mean you missed it?
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,328
    ^Shame. He probably missed the Death Star eol'ing two weeks ago too.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,766
    edited March 2013
    It's gone? But I only have three!? ;o)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I'm not buying anymore FB unless they are on sale by at least 30% or more. I only have 6, so I'm not heavily invested. My limit may be 8-10.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    At this point Ill be happy with $50 profit after it retires. I don't see me making that much off of FB.
    Legoboy
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,766
    ^ Right call. I don't see anybody making much from the FB for a while after EOL. There's too many aftermarket sets out there.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    If anyone is still looking for a #4842 Hogwarts Castle, you may want to try The NERDS Shop on Bricklink:
    http://www.bricklink.com/store.asp?sID=27709&itemID=39119516

    Looks like they have a few they are trying to unload at US$119.95.

    NOTE: They have some pretty bad feedback. I've heard their service is awful - mostly in regards to the amount of time it takes to ship. And they may have terrible shipping rates. Best bet is to contact them first before placing an order to get squared away.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ That is a great price, but yea, their service is terrible and they are slow to ship.

    I've done business with them several times, all I'll say is be sure to pay via PayPal and make sure you don't let the 45 day complaint window pass, you may need it to get your stuff.
  • BrikingBriking Dorset, UKMember Posts: 757
    So FB may be troublesome in the after life, but what are your thoughts on GE? With PC being the only other corner in the current line I'm hoping it will be of interest. Or are there gazillions of closets with these as well?
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^^ that has to be a mistake? You can sell these all day for $250+ right now. That is crazy.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^It's probably $100 to ship ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Briking said:

    So FB may be troublesome in the after life, but what are your thoughts on GE? With PC being the only other corner in the current line I'm hoping it will be of interest. Or are there gazillions of closets with these as well?

    Did we say FB was troublesome? I think the consensus is that FB will be slow to to to 2.5x rrp, but I believe it will get there eventually. Maybe troublesome for some that don't have the patience or storage space.

    I actually think GE will do just as well as FB and maybe a little bit better seeing it is a corner Modular.
  • BrikingBriking Dorset, UKMember Posts: 757
    ^ The way people keep wishing it to leave, it sounds like the uninivted relative who decides to stay for a while... Of course no-one said it was troublesome. Far too polite... :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Bandit said:

    ^^ that has to be a mistake? You can sell these all day for $250+ right now. That is crazy.

    Sure you can, and after fees and other expenses, you're really not making anything if you paid RRP for it.

    Now granted, there have been several chances to buy it for less than RRP, in which case it gets better, but that isn't very impressive all things considered.

    To really make selling worthwhile, you need a set to get to 2.5x RRP, that usually doubles your money after expenses, if you paid RRP. Otherwise, if you paid 25% under RRP, you need it to get to 2x RRP to double your money.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I just never ask those relatives to vist. If FB is the uninvited relative then DS is the crazy disturbed child the family keeps locked up in the attic and never mentions them.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    :) Just keep in mind that DS is likely to be around longer than FB.

    I still like my Mark II idea, but they aren't doing that, they'll keep it as-is for awhile longer...

    Anyone want a DS? :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Shhhhh the DS should not be spoken about round these parts.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Yes, but I'm so sick of looking at them, I've been selling a few locally for $360 just to move them out. If anyone wants one, $370 shipped and it is all yours. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Now you make the DS sound like the deformed sister in "Pet Sematary"
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    sidersdd said:

    If anyone is still looking for a #4842 Hogwarts Castle, you may want to try The NERDS Shop on Bricklink:
    http://www.bricklink.com/store.asp?sID=27709&itemID=39119516

    Looks like they have a few they are trying to unload at US$119.95.

    NOTE: They have some pretty bad feedback. I've heard their service is awful - mostly in regards to the amount of time it takes to ship. And they may have terrible shipping rates. Best bet is to contact them first before placing an order to get squared away.

    Haha, order canceled. Anyone get an order to go through?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002

    Bandit said:

    ^^ that has to be a mistake? You can sell these all day for $250+ right now. That is crazy.

    Sure you can, and after fees and other expenses, you're really not making anything if you paid RRP for it.

    Now granted, there have been several chances to buy it for less than RRP, in which case it gets better, but that isn't very impressive all things considered.

    To really make selling worthwhile, you need a set to get to 2.5x RRP, that usually doubles your money after expenses, if you paid RRP. Otherwise, if you paid 25% under RRP, you need it to get to 2x RRP to double your money.
    I have to disagree with the math here... or at least what 'really not making anything' means. Even if you paid full price for some reason... and even if you get no discounts on your selling or PayPal fees... you're still pocketing over $95 if you sell 4842 for $250. And if you bought it when it was widely available for ~$80, you're getting almost $150 per set less than four months after it became scarce. Either way, it's not a bad return at all.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Well, I think LFT was talking on average, this is what you want. Obviously, you want a $20 set to go up much more than 2.5x to make it worth your while. A $300 set will do just fine at just 2x rrp.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    @flyingpig I dunno, but I checked the price guide as soon as I saw this the other night, about 10 had been bought, now shows only 3 at $119. Somebody must have goofed.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    edited March 2013
    y2josh said:

    I have to disagree with the math here... or at least what 'really not making anything' means. Even if you paid full price for some reason... and even if you get no discounts on your selling or PayPal fees... you're still pocketing over $95 if you sell 4842 for $250. And if you bought it when it was widely available for ~$80, you're getting almost $150 per set less than four months after it became scarce. Either way, it's not a bad return at all.

    If you value your time, your cost of capital, and your other expenses such as storage and gas at zero, then yes you pocket $95.

    Well, no you don't, because at $250 you'll net $217.50 after 10% eBay fees and 2.9% PayPal fees (well, you will once the rates go up next month anyway). Then take off another $15 in shipping (or more if you don't have a UPS account)

    So you pocket $72, which sounds nice, assuming your storage costs are free, your cost of acquisition is nothing, you didn't pay sales tax, and your expenses in processing the set and shipping it are somehow free.

    Many small sellers (and some larger ones) don't bother to do the math of what those costs are. Perhaps storage is free because you use a bedroom closet, fair enough. Perhaps you were at the store anyway or it was shipped to you, fair enough. Perhaps you recycled the shipping box and did it on Sunday and don't care about the 10 minutes it took to ship, fair enough.

    You can do that for 1 of them, or even 10 of them, which makes for a nice $72 profit.

    To do 100 of them requires a lot more than a bedroom closet and 10 minutes on a Sunday. :) If you add all that up, it ends up being more than most people think. Plus then you must pay tax on that $7,200, less expenses.

    You might clear $3,500 when all is said and done (expenses and taxes paid), if you paid full retail. Of course, if you got it on clearance for 25% off, then yes, much better, but then that is what I said, if you buy for 25% off, then 2x RRP is fine, but if you pay full retail, then 2.5x RRP is required to make it interesting.

    I did after all say that to double your money, you need a set that you paid full retail for to get to 2.5x RRP. If you paid 25% less for 4842, then it cost you $97.49. At $250 selling price, you'll net about $200 after shipping and fees, a bit more if you get discounts, so that is a double.

    Which is just what I said. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Leave it to @LegoFanTexas to shove it in and break it off...lol
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    Leave it to @LegoFanTexas to shove it in and break it off...lol

    Well gosh, that wasn't my intention, but reading my post back over, I can see how it might seem that way.

    Wasn't trying to ruffle any feathers, just sharing my view of things. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^No, we all know how you are. You are much like me. You have to be if you run a business or two.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    If any of you have seen Bar Resue or Car Lot Rescue, you'll understand ;)
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited March 2013
    @LegoFanTexas you make some good points about the true cost if running a business, but I think for a large majority of us on here are in that group that only does small amounts in our spare time. So our cost of doing business is low, and most of us don't count our time. I package things while watching TV etc. and that works fine as I'm only sending up to a few items a week, but those items allow me to buy Lego for my own collection.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    Pitfall69 said:

    Leave it to @LegoFanTexas to shove it in and break it off...lol

    I appreciate his brand of reality check. I've started keeping much better track of the basic fees that get tacked on to my sales, and it's a little discouraging to see how little I actually make off some things.
    Pitfall69
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited March 2013
    @LegoFanTexas - Here again, I disagree. I think on the shipping cost, especially, you're grabbing at a number, since they're averaging about $270 shipped (expect that to continue to dip as it warms up) and the cost of shipping a seven pound package via USPS only gets to be over $15 once you hit Zone 7. And that's the 'no discount at all' cost. But I digress, as the shipping cost shouldn't be a factor, given that the buyer SHOULD be paying actual cost of shipping.

    Further, processing and shipping aren't free, though that cost is extremely low, and typically the cost of shipping supplies is figured into the charge, but I actually added $3 to seller costs (though, to be fair on this point, I'm using current fees as a model since the new fees don't take effect for another month or so) for someone that wanted to ship double-boxed in Uline cartons (and even that's a cost that's more restricted to someone doing this in bulk). A hobby seller is typically going to use either the box they received it in, or a recycled box, but I was hypothesizing an absolute worst case scenario (now, if you list with free shipping, that's typically a mistake, as you're at the mercy of buyer location for certain options, so actual cost is the way to go there).

    That aside, if you view hobby reselling through the lens of a normal business owner, you're going to run into all those extra costs you talk about, but most people on this board aren't making a living off of selling LEGO, nor are they storing more than a bedroom's closet full of sets, so I think it's more important to note that, for the majority who simply want to fund their hobby, a tidy profit can already be made from this particular set.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited March 2013

    Pitfall69 said:

    Leave it to @LegoFanTexas to shove it in and break it off...lol

    Well gosh, that wasn't my intention, but reading my post back over, I can see how it might seem that way.

    Wasn't trying to ruffle any feathers, just sharing my view of things. :)
    To be fair, I wasn't personally offended, as the cost of running a business is something I have to consider myself. I do not, however, believe that's the same case for most of the resellers on this board, so to essentially say, "$95(ish) is nothing at all" doesn't make a ton of sense given the audience. That's a couple mid-range System sets, after all.
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