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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,897
    Shelf space is at a premium for sure with DS. The box is relatively fragile I think given the girth and weight.

    Is Ewok Village expected to be a crazy big set? I guess I missed the rumors, update on that.

    And good to see an LFT said: tagline again.
  • CrownieCrownie WA StateMember Posts: 228
    edited February 2013


    What if they retired 10188 this year, waited 12 months, then came out with a Death Star Mk II, like the new Technic Mobile Crane? They could up the part count to 4,100 to make people feel like it was "more", they could refresh the minifigs to current designs, they could redo the build and make it "fresh", and then up the price to $499.

    I actually like this idea, though I think it would anger alot of people that own the current version. I - however - don't own the current version, and one of the things that has kept me from pulling the trigger is just how outdated some parts of it (read: minifigures) look compared to what's being produced today.

    I would find an updated version very appealing, even at that higher price point.

    It's good to have the balance within the Force again. Welcome back. ;-)
  • PicopiratePicopirate Member Posts: 316
    edited February 2013
    I can picture the outrage already given all the people upset over the new xwing... and the last ucs xwing was released over a decade ago.
  • leppgleppg Member Posts: 45
    ^ That may be true but who wants to wait for the unborn babies to grow up get jobs then be able to afford the aftermarket prices. You do,make a good poi
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I actually like this idea, though I think it would anger alot of people that own the current version. I - however - don't own the current version, and one of the things that has kept me from pulling the trigger is just how outdated some parts of it (read: minifigures) look compared to what's being produced today.

    I would find an updated version very appealing, even at that higher price point.

    It's good to have the balance within the Force again. Welcome back. ;-)

    Thanks! :)

    As for anger on a Mk II version of DS, I do understand that, and I wouldn't be thrilled either since I have a growing pile of them to sell later, but I would understand it better.

    It also isn't a UCS set, it doesn't have a display plaque, it is a kids play set. I have seen multiple parents buy the set in the LEGO store for their kids, clearly these are getting played with by kids, which is what it is meant for.

    If a Mk II version came out, I would buy it and save it for my son when he turns 9, then give it to him to build, because he missed out on building 10188 since he was to young.

    I also agree with you that it is starting to look dated. I built it nearly 2 years ago now, and when I built it I was floored at just how amazing it was, the size, detail, minifigs, was just amazing.

    Now, it is starting to age a bit, it could use with a refresh if they keep selling it, unless it is being retired.
  • leppgleppg Member Posts: 45
    Oops lol that was not meant to post
  • gofigure19gofigure19 Member Posts: 20
    was the Lego FB post about the new X-wing on Friday a bit of foreshadowing?? "So we were thinking- what would be the best way to destroy the Death Star.... "
    FollowsClosely
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,672
    edited February 2013
    I doubt that there will be another DS set after this one goes, at least for the foreseeable future.. While playable, there is still one issue with it.. It is 400 dollars.
    While no one really knows (maybe some LEGO execs, or higher ups that deal with the line) when this goes I would say if you want one and can find it on sale, get it.
    As I believe once it goes they will most likely spike to 500-600 (especially if it goes before Christmas), even with all of those that have been stacking these in anticipation.

    I think LEGO is going to do what they always seem to do with SW.. keep the price at the same level (or even raise it a bit) then make less into the set.
    Because they know that even though another set may be less parts or even less playability, people will be willing to pay 400 plus for such a type of set.
    Although Id rather see a cloud city playset in the design of the DS set.
    An Endor set is a bit annoying IMO, considering the battle of Endor set was out for as long as it was. That would be like trying to make a Hoth playset.. Only Cloud city has not really gotten any love since it s 'UCS' set IMO.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2013
    ^ Yeah...highly ironic...perhaps the DS is actually going. I think I will wait until it is gone and then complain that I didn't get a chance to purchase one while simultaneously cursing evil resellers for marking up aftermarket prices! How dare they!!!

    :-)
  • super_curry_maxsuper_curry_max Member Posts: 75
    Why is series 9 CMF already on the "soon to retire" page on lego.com?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    because they are soon to retire, just like all CMF series do
    Pitfall69jasor
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,288
    If you're looking for the sidebar about a UCS Ewok Village or other playset I've merged it into this thread: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/6775/rumours-about-the-2013-star-wars-ucs-models
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    Does someone know how long it takes for purchasing limits to reset on [email protected]? If I bought 5 of a set in December (limit per customer: 5), then when can I next order some of it without worries?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,585
    Isn't the limit per order?

    Last year when CMFs were on sale, I bought the maximum (16) in one order, and was then able to place another order straight away with more in. And it was honoured too.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    I think I heard people reporting that subsequent Minecraft orders were cancelled after being placed (max was 1 at the time), but other than that I agree with @CCC.
  • tmgm528tmgm528 Member Posts: 457
    /\ Ah Minecraft the the gold standard for re-sellers d:
  • PicopiratePicopirate Member Posts: 316
    Does box style affect resale value at all? I suspect not since the value of most LEGO sets is in the set itself. But collectable toys tend to have different values if the box art changes (with earlier, more rare, boxes with mistakes being more valuable). I just ask because a number of sets are now offered in multiple box sizes (with newer sets having smaller boxes).
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,672
    Hardrada said:

    Does someone know how long it takes for purchasing limits to reset on [email protected]? If I bought 5 of a set in December (limit per customer: 5), then when can I next order some of it without worries?

    Im guessing that if you place one it would alert you before the order could go through.. Otherwise may LEGO CS can explain when you can buy another one, but it is a good question.

    I know that Amazon stops you from buying any more a set at a good price.... until they do not... Not sure if there is a set time limit.
    I always thought it was as long as the sale price was occurring, but maybe it is longer than that.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited February 2013
    From my experience it can take awhile for the limit to reset on [email protected] and they do not alert you when they cancel an order. For example I bought a Minecraft set back in October. The next day I wanted to order another one. The order went through but when I checked the status a few days later it was marked as cancelled, no email, no alert. I tried buying another Minecraft set 2 months later and the same thing happened, cancelled a few days later with no notice. It wasn't until January that I was able to order another set.

    Could be stricter limits on a set like Minecraft since it is in such high demand though.

    I personally have no problem with this as it allows Lego to have enough stock for more people.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,672

    Does box style affect resale value at all? I suspect not since the value of most LEGO sets is in the set itself. But collectable toys tend to have different values if the box art changes (with earlier, more rare, boxes with mistakes being more valuable). I just ask because a number of sets are now offered in multiple box sizes (with newer sets having smaller boxes).

    I'm guessing no, but I would say that the new smaller boxes may be more sought after as they are easier to store IMO.
    But then that means maybe the older ones that are larger may be more collectable as there may be fewer of them still around and... who knows.
    Im guessing as long as it is in sealed box it will still be worth money.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    The one that would be worth more to collectors would generally be the ones thought to be in shorter supply, I would think. I have several copies of #4191 Captain's Cabin. This set came in two different sized boxes. Of course, if TLG just reduces all boxes and doesn't make variations, the collector wouldn't know the difference
    madforLEGO
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    The first Rancor Pits I bought had your standard tape seals. The next batches had perforated punch-and-tear holes, haven't seen the taped ones again. Odd.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    One area that size of box might matter is when you are selling on ebay or amazon. The cost of freight to overseas buyers (which are some of the best lego buyers in the world) has gone up quite a bit. It now costs me almost $170 to ship a SSD to Asia or Australia. Obviously that one is huge, but something like the 9493 small x-wing, also has a unnecessarily large box, and can cost $60-$75 to ship internationally. It scares off buyers when they have to pay more for shipping than the item.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,672

    The first Rancor Pits I bought had your standard tape seals. The next batches had perforated punch-and-tear holes, haven't seen the taped ones again. Odd.

    Maybe LEGO is starting to realize that people are stealing the contents of the box and are trying to take stronger steps toward stopping it?
    pharmjodPitfall69BuriedinBricks
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950


    Most of us admit that we have no clue what LEGO is doing with the lifespan of the modulars. Let's take a look at the brickset availability dates: The first three sets follow the 2 year and done pattern rather nicely with 538, 774 and 613 days of availability. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your perspective) the pattern ends there. The FB and GE are both way over the two year pattern, and the PS is rather close. The only thing I can tell you for certain is if you like the looks of it; get it now. Especially the GE, PS and FB.

    Market Street #10190 24 Oct 07 - 14 Apr 09 = 538 days
    Cafe Corner #10182 24 Oct 07 - 06 Dec 09 = 774 days
    Green Grocer #10185 05 Mar 08 - 08 Nov 10 = 613 days
    Fire Brigade #10197 12 Sep 09 - now = 1260 days and climbing
    Grand Emporium #10211 03 Mar 10 - now = 1088 days and climbing
    Pet Shop #10218 12 May 11 - now = 653 days and climbing
    Town Hall #10224 03 Mar 12 - now = 357 days and climbing
    Palace Cinema #10232 14 Feb 13 - now = 9 days and climbing

    This month the Pet Shop #10218 passed a milestone. It has been available for over 650 days, making it available longer than the average of the first three modulars, which is 642 days. Get it while you can :)
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 626
    ? seriously ?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    UKtsumi said:

    ? seriously ?

    No, it's a joke. But it shows how untypical the modular life span is.
    Pitfall69
  • BrikingBriking Dorset, UKMember Posts: 756
    So the great #21102 Minecraft shortage of Autumn 2012 is a long time behind us. And the set is in stock again at [email protected], but with a limit of 5. As I understand it, the game goes from strength to strength so presumably it will still be around next holiday season.

    Does it make sense to start stocking up on this? Hopefully the limit would be re-set to 0 once or twice in the next 7 months. If this phenomena continues, I'd expect Lego to have the good sense to release a new version this summer. In which case the secondary market for #21102 should be secured. Or...?
  • bigjsdbigjsd Member Posts: 62
    The popularity of Minecraft appears to be at an all time high or certainly near it's peak. I personally think that as time goes by and the game's popularity wanes (kids are usually on to the next big thing) that the demand for this set will certainly decrease along with it. Of course it's unpredictable and I could be completely wrong but I wouldn't bank too much on this set for the long haul.
  • GreenArrow57GreenArrow57 GBMember Posts: 71


    Most of us admit that we have no clue what LEGO is doing with the lifespan of the modulars. Let's take a look at the brickset availability dates: The first three sets follow the 2 year and done pattern rather nicely with 538, 774 and 613 days of availability. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your perspective) the pattern ends there. The FB and GE are both way over the two year pattern, and the PS is rather close. The only thing I can tell you for certain is if you like the looks of it; get it now. Especially the GE, PS and FB.

    Market Street #10190 24 Oct 07 - 14 Apr 09 = 538 days
    Cafe Corner #10182 24 Oct 07 - 06 Dec 09 = 774 days
    Green Grocer #10185 05 Mar 08 - 08 Nov 10 = 613 days
    Fire Brigade #10197 12 Sep 09 - now = 1260 days and climbing
    Grand Emporium #10211 03 Mar 10 - now = 1088 days and climbing
    Pet Shop #10218 12 May 11 - now = 653 days and climbing
    Town Hall #10224 03 Mar 12 - now = 357 days and climbing
    Palace Cinema #10232 14 Feb 13 - now = 9 days and climbing

    This month the Pet Shop #10218 passed a milestone. It has been available for over 650 days, making it available longer than the average of the first three modulars, which is 642 days. Get it while you can :)
    Hi! Newbie here! I have been lurking since before Christmas and thought I'd better join up!
    I bought the Pet Shop yesterday and the assistant said it was due for retirement. Didn't specify when, though.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,672
    edited February 2013
    I picked up a couple at the TRU BOGO sale online, even at the increased price at TRU it was still cheaper than buying from LEGO.com and Id get them from Amazon, but they usually only have them on their site for about 30 minutes to 1 hour normally before they are gone.

    They are not super expensive and they are relatively small boxes so I am gambling on them, but did not spend a fortune on them either. If they do not do well, then they go to my nephew who is crazy for Minecraft
    I would say who knows, as if they run into a shortage again before next Christmas they could explode in price again.. but all of that is hypothetical.

    I think though that, judging by eBay, those that thought the wave would go on forever are now getting stuck with them, so even if they do increase in demand there may be such a glut of them that the market stays low.
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 626
    3 days with no new comment???
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Too much sorrow over not getting Valentines gift and forming a mob to go after scammers
    HarryPotterLoverwagnerml2Bumblepants
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    I sold my last 10196. Wish i had more.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Yeah!! I have my torch and pitchfork, where is the mob headed??
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^
    Pitfall69 said:

    Too much sorrow over not getting Valentines gift and forming a mob to go after scammers

    And complaining about TRU's pricing..

    Let's start a new discussion. What is everyone's take on Chima ? Is it going to be the next Ninjago ?

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I wasn't trying to derail. Just answering an inquiry ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    CI don't think Chima will even come close to Ninjago. Everybody loves Ninjas and Zombies. What will drive Ninjago well after it is gone from retail are the Ninjas.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^ I concur. I think brand recognition is the key. Looking at the box, anyone would figure out that Ninjago is about LEGO Ninja. As for Chima, first one needs to figure out how to pronounce the darn word before figuring out what it is all about.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I'm not confident in the Chima theme. Not sure what it is about it but it just seems like a substitute for a theme (Ninjago) that didn't really need a substitute. Not sure it will be around long enough. The mini figures are neat but the sets themselves don't do anything for me.
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 195
    So back to Toys R Us. I placed a BOGO 50 off order last week and went to the PO today to pick it up and they told me TRU hadn't paid enough shipping and I owed $28 to pick up my package!!! In their defense they did the right thing and just took my word for it and refunded the amount I owed to my original form of payment and then I just paid the PO. Glad they took care of it instead of making me refuse it and have it reshipped.
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 195
    Sorry...I thought I was in a different thread

    Mods please delete post.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,672
    edited February 2013
    I know that with double points coming up, I'm leaning toward getting a couple of Haunted House sets and stack points up. I'm guessing that the Haunted house sets will be out for some time, but I would like them to use as a blueprint to build a Victorian style mansion ([email protected] did with the 'Pink Nightmare' house he retrofitted) and I just think that the sand/pale green brick is a nice color to have handy for other creations.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    edited February 2013
    I would be interested to get people's views on whether they think TMNT will be a successful theme?
  • leego76leego76 Chandlers FordMember Posts: 360
    edited February 2013
    Not seeing a lot of TMNT around in the UK (none at all in my local tesco), the figs are great but the sets are poor. I think it will still do better than galaxy squad though!
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    edited February 2013
    ^ that's a very good summing up. The figs are great but the sets are poor are my thoughts exactly.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I think TMNT will perform similarly to how I feel Super Heroes will perform. The sets are pretty awful (sans the Lair, which I'm a little fond of), but the minifigs will be the profit drivers. The problem they may run into is that there will likely be a turtle in every set, so I imagine there'll be an overflow of those figures eventually.

    Short term, though, this could be very Ninjago-esque. The action figures are impossible to keep in stock right now, so if these sets seem like they could get bought up for Christmas, it may be worth having a handful in reserve for you resellers who are so inclined.
  • HarryPotterLoverHarryPotterLover Member Posts: 238
    Being they say Ninja will be coming back, Ninjago may go down in aftermarket after those releases.
    As for the TMNT I see it being the same as LOTR and SH, as little kids will always want to play with (what THEY consider) "cool missle cars" and things. However I see alot of figs becoming repetitive in this line, and LOTR does this as well, so the minifig aftermarket may not do so well (for like The Fellowship and such) however some ones in only probably 1 set like Arwen, Elrond, or the Mouth of Sauron will probably be worth alot. SH though does rely on figs, so the "no minifig" resellers may be in trouble and like LOTR the locations/ vehicles are too iconic to pass up, and some figs again (like white batman, DKR figs) will do better than say regular batman because their tailored for about 1 set and not "generic" (eg-regular batman suit)
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,288
    SiE said:

    I sold my last 10196. Wish i had more.

    I was considering selling one. If you don't mind me asking, where did you list yours?

  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    rocao said:

    SiE said:

    I sold my last 10196. Wish i had more.

    I was considering selling one. If you don't mind me asking, where did you list yours?

    Ebay, £800

    Had it listed for £850 and accepted 800. I had it listed for more for a while but wanted to sell it. 800 seems the going rate atm for buy it now.
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