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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • gruetzmacherdgruetzmacherd USA, WIMember Posts: 30
    I suggest picking up 10199 while you can. I think that this Christmas was this set's "last hurrah".
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Another thought is that the average cost per set (based on pieces per set) is always increasing (due to inflation or TLG trying to increase their profits). Locking in at a lower price per piece provides a better return provided it is possible to break the set apart to sell it that way. Obviously, one must consider the value of the dollar (or Euro, etc.) when taking this approach. The combination of both inflation and a sinking currency seems to validate this approach though...

    In short, purchasing sets that are to be EOL'd which have a high piece/price ratio may be another valid approach to selecting EOL'd sets to purchase.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I deal with this issue too. I have a bunch of sets, about 5 that are EOL'd and I want to get. I recently bought one of them new because it was not much more than the used price. I think with the others it may be a toss up, but I would much rather get them all new even if I have to pay a bit more for the MISB price. I agree with coolpix, the feel of a new set is a great feeling. Those thick plastic bags with the small holes and the smell of new product is always nice. You may think I'm crazy, but I might even buy the UCS falcon new if I can. I know a lot of you resellers should probably thank people like me because you would not be making as much profit without us. When I think about buying used I consider that I will have to take time double-checking that all the pieces are there, rather than just quickly counting all the bags if the box has become unsealed. I would rather trust people's descriptions on ebay or BL, but sometimes I question the "completeness" and quality of the set especially when they say they cannot guarantee all pieces are there.
  • SupersympaSupersympa SwedenMember Posts: 534
    10199 was supposed to be retired twice and came back...but apparently this time is good. the two others will be there for a least 12 months, and TLC will probably come back with a new house/set in october 2012.
  • L3GOCOLL3CTORL3GOCOLL3CTOR Member Posts: 5
    edited December 2011
    I hope it's the Death Star, set #10188. I have 3 of them. LOL
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    What's the best guess on how much longer Technic Unimog and Motorized Excavator will be for sale? I noticed that Amazon hasn't stocked the Unimog in 1-2 months now; it's all 3rd party sellers.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,834
    ^ I would guess that despite the excavator being around for a while already, it might well be going for another year yet. It's a great great set. I'd probably rate it higher than the Unimog.

    The Unimog? Again a long while yet.

    I'm coming round to the idea that LEGO are realising that their products have a longer life on their shelves than in the hands of resellers. What's going to happen though is resellers are going to get wise to the fact they're going to be sat on product for far longer than they'd hoped and will slow up - cue, LEGO sales drop again.
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    I have to admit to having a mental barrier on pulling the trigger on the Excavator. I know that all of the included Power Functions stuff makes up roughly half of the $200 cost, but I can't ignore that you get about half the pieces of the Unimog for the same price.

    I just need to suck it up and buy it soon.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The Excavator is indeed overpriced when compared to the Unimog, but you can sometimes find a deal on it that makes it worth it.

    Picked one up on Amazon about 6 months ago for around $170 delivered, which isn't great, but not terrible either.

    Still haven't built it of course. :)
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,834
    ^ + ^^ Price aside, I think the Excavator is a far better set than the Unimog. Will probably get flamed for that comment. I have both and had more fun building and playing with the Excavator. Do it! :o)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @flump6523 - you may well be right, I haven't built either, but own both...

    The Unimog seems like a better deal, and should rise more in the aftermarket, since it has a much higher part count and it unique (there will be more construction equipment, I doubt they'll ever do another Unimog)
  • fyrmedhattfyrmedhatt Member Posts: 128
    I'm afraid the Excavator might be gone soon enough, it seems Lego has smartly decided to go for a soft clearance of their flagship sets, where they are not discounting them but rather sell them out in due time. This appears to be the case for the MMV, Fire Brigade, Excavator and possibly the yellow Cargo Train and the Death Star.

    It's an approach I understand, as in the big picture these sets are probably not taking too much shelf space (there could be only a few thousand sets left, but who knows...). This approach maximizes Lego's profits at the same time as it makes it more likely for the stragglers to be able to find the sets before they are discontinued rather than the sets being picked up by resellers the second they go on sale leaving the stragglers to pay inflated prices and sending angry emails to Lego.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I have no issues with that plan, if that is what Lego is doing. Honestly, it seems to make business sense to me, to let them sell out quietly rather than blowing them out in a sale, and this way the resellers don't keep all that money instead of Lego.

    Even being a reseller myself, I want Lego to be profitable, because if they are making money, they will keep building sets for years to come, which is really the part I love most! :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I had an opportunity to get the excavator at about $160, but didn't pull the trigger. I will the next time.

    I love the Technic line, but would only consider a Unimog for 20% off. It's hard for me to pull the trigger on a set that isn't sale priced.

    I can see the Unimog being available for at least 6 more months (if not more), but the excavator is another question. It's a neat set, and Lego currently does not have any excavator-type sets available via the Technic line. In short, it could be around for another year or disappear tomorrow.
  • bluemoosebluemoose Member Posts: 1,716
    [NOTE - the off-topic discussion below this point has been 'forked' & archived]
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Okay...we have two Wallyworlds located relatively close to where I live. One is extremely busy (and closer to our house) and the other is...well...kind of out of the way. Anyway I hit the busy one right after Christmas and was able to only pick up a few EOL'd items (nothing to write home about).

    This morning I hit the WMT that is further out of the way, and felt like I struck the jackpot considering it was a week after Christmas when everything should be gone:

    I was able to get the following EOL'd sets for 1/2 price or better:

    25 - 4736
    10 - 8083
    10 - 8084
    1 - 8085
    2 - 7325
    1 - 7326
    1 - 7306
    1 - 6918
    6 - 30028
    1 - 7597
    1 - 7789
    2 - 8206
    3 - 8301
    6 - 8302
    6 - 8304
    1 - 5761

    I was kind of in a hurry and didn't get to check everything. Furthermore, it sounds like I got a lot, but I left at least 100+ sets on the shelves at 1/2 off. They had a dozens of PQ sets at 1/2 price there; especially the larger sets. I left 50+ boxes of the HP 4736 at 1/2 price. They had some HP sets that were still at full price (4866, 4865, etc.). Perhaps they will go even lower and I can pick those up cheaper when I stop by next week. If not, I still feel that I did well.

    As a side note, I am not a fan of the HP movies or Lego sets; however, I couldn't resist picking up a lot of HP sets with resale in mind. Whatever my tastes are regarding the HP series, I do expect HP to perform well in coming months and years and I would have been a fool not to grab several.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2012
    It's interesting that TLG ended their after-Christmas sales without EOLing those sets that were on sale. With this action and all the new sets released and to be released, TLG has a huge product line to manage. Either there is going to be another sale real soon or maybe TLG has decided to have a larger mid-year sale to even out their sales over the different business quarters. I am opting for the latter because carrying all these products simultaneously seems more complex and cannibalizes the new sets to some degree (lengthening their ROI).
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    I was kind of in a hurry and didn't get to check everything. Furthermore, it sounds like I got a lot, but I left at least 100+ sets on the shelves at 1/2 off. They had a dozens of PQ sets at 1/2 price there; especially the larger sets.
    Dude, where are you?
    I left 50+ boxes of the HP 4736 at 1/2 price.
    Don't tell @Matthew that!

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Dude, where are you?
    Nashville, TN area. By the way, TLG has a major (the major?) shipping location for their North American operation just south of Memphis, TN in Mississippi. Furthermore, we don't have a Lego B&M store in the State of Tennessee. Therefore, we don't get the store deals, but we also aren't charged tax and items arrive the day after they are shipped even when standard shipping is chosen.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    edited January 2012
    Furthermore, we don't have a Lego B&M store in the State of Tennessee.
    Not yet. But you're getting one in about three months, right? Opry Mills Mall in Nashville.
    http://www.brickset.com/news/article/?ID=1883
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Hmmmm, @Farmer_John is making a case for me relocating my family to Tennessee! But, since I am driving distance to something like 5 LEGO Stores, maybe I'll stay put. :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Furthermore, we don't have a Lego B&M store in the State of Tennessee.
    Not yet. But you're getting one in about three months, right? Opry Mills Mall in Nashville.
    http://www.brickset.com/news/article/?ID=1883
    Yep...The bad news is that TN has the highest sales tax in the nations...a whopping 10%. So a 10% off sale in TN at TLG, TRU, WMT, TGT, etc. allows one to break even with respect to the SRP. That's why I was torn regarding having a new Lego store at Opry Mills. Oh well, nobody asked me so I guess it's a mute point. :-)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Hmmmm, @Farmer_John is making a case for me relocating my family to Tennessee! But, since I am driving distance to something like 5 LEGO Stores, maybe I'll stay put. :)
    Five stores?! Wow...must be nice! I would definitely have to have a bigger house if I lived near five stores.

    I gripe about TN's sales tax, but to be fair we came here from Texas and TN is much more affordable. We miss TX, but housing, insurance, property taxes, and probably groceries are more affordable in TN. Bad news is that I had to have a front tooth removed and learn to play banjo just to fit in here. Just kidding...
  • MatthewMatthew Cheshire, UKAdministrator Posts: 3,735
    edited January 2012
    I left 50+ boxes of the HP 4736 at 1/2 price.
    Don't tell @Matthew that!
    I think I should move to the States :-)
  • tdhbrtdhbr Member Posts: 188
    edited January 2012
    I found several Kingdoms and Alien Conquest sets at a Barnes and Noble today, all at RRP. I grabbed the one King's Castle on the shelf and came home to think about the rest. Will these increase in value enough this year to buy them at RRP now (minus 10% member discount)? Due to other recent purchases, I would want to sell these again by Christmas 2012 at the latest, preferably much earlier. Because of the small-ish size of most of these, I'd want them to come close to doubling RRP in order to be worth it. There were about 3-5 of each on the shelf. I checked Brickpicker, Bricklink, eBay, and Amazon - all are currently pretty close to original RRP. These would all be solely for resale, not to keep.

    Sets I saw are: Kingdoms 7188, 7187, 7948; AC 7066, 7065, 7052.

    Any thoughts? Thanks!

    Merged from "AC and Kingdoms at RRP" thread by YC 1-4-12
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    edited January 2012
    Kings Castle? Sheesh, I'd take 50 of them at retail price at this point, that set is an easy sell. The dozen I had from Black Friday, all sold already...
  • CCLINCCLIN United StatesMember Posts: 23
    edited January 2012
    I think the announcement and pending LOTR sets definitely has had an impact to the Kingdoms sets. I have thoroughly enjoyed the recent Kingdoms sets, and have found them to be quite collectible even at RRP (might be a personal perspective though). Granted, large sets like the 7946 are usually the easiest sell (I too sold off my holdings quite easily last month). With the smaller sets, I'm not sure about doubling their RRP in a year's time, but I doubt you will have any trouble letting them go at or a little above RRP over time.

    With that said, if you decide against the reselling route, let me know if you might be willing to purchase and ship some of the sets to me, namely the 7187 and the 7948. Thanks...
  • darktremeredarktremere Member Posts: 42
    edited January 2012
    You can still get 7948 and 7949 from the Barnes and Noble website for RRP. I picked up a couple of each and got free shipping on them.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    edited January 2012
    Just checked Ebay, incredible. Guess I'll go pick up a bundle of Castles now. Does this ever end?
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    edited January 2012
    Yeah, that latest castle is really surprising me. I don't think it's a particularly great castle, but it's already selling for well over retail. Maybe because it's just an absurdly perfect counterpart for the new joust set? They look made for each other.
  • yys4uyys4u USA SoCalMember Posts: 1,092
    edited January 2012
    Good to see these are still on the shelves, I still need to pick up a couple sets
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    edited January 2012
    Surprises me too. I've thought the current Kingdom's to be pretty uninspiring -- been there done that. The previous Castle sets were awesome, different from previous versions and very imaginative.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Went by the same store again last night and most of the sets had been grabbed. They still had about a dozen HP Dobby sets, several racers, several SW snowtrooper and rebel sets, a few cars sets, some large PQ sets, and dozens of Ninjago spinner sets. It did appear that someone started to clean the place out. I ended up purchasing about 10 more misc sets from those listed above.
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    Is HP not done? I thought it was, as my local Lego store had been wiped out well before Christmas, and given the discussion here. But stopped by today and they were all refreshed. Hogwarts, Quidditch, Forbidden Forest, Knight Bus, Dobby.

    I talked to an employee (one who typically knows more than the rest) and he said the theme is not EOL. He expected more in their shipment tomorrow and said he also expects to see the castle back on the shelves soon. Hmmm.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I just got LEGO Club magazine in the mail, and they had a HUGE spread for Harry Potter stuff. I was surprised, as I am to hear the report from @avoiceofreason
  • DKissingerDKissinger Member Posts: 23
    edited January 2012
    ^^target will also continue to carry hog warts and the forbidden forest also they will have a few AC sets Being carried forward .
  • darktremeredarktremere Member Posts: 42
    Hit my local Barnes & Noble today, they were able to find one of the Prison Tower Rescue sets at another store, a bunch of the King's Carriage Ambush and no Castles at all. I grabbed the Prison Tower set with a 30% coupon and a 10% membership discount. :-)
  • cbaker1974cbaker1974 Member Posts: 150
    There were 2 waves of HP in this recent series:
    The first one had Hogwarts Express, Burrow, Freeing Dobby, Quidditch, Hagrid's Hut, Hogwarts Castle

    The 2nd one had Knight Bus, Battle for Hogwarts, Forbidden Forest, Diagon Alley

    I suspect Wave 1 is now being discontinued (thus retirement of Burrow, Hogwarts Express as we have been seeing, the rest to follow soon), and Wave 2 will discontinue in summer near LOTR release. I'd say over the next few months to start looking for deals on the large Hogwarts and Diagon Alley (DA may stay a little longer as it is like a UCS set for HP)...the upcoming target clearance may be a last chance to get some of the other wave 1 HP stuff.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Is HP not done? I thought it was, as my local Lego store had been wiped out well before Christmas, and given the discussion here. But stopped by today and they were all refreshed. Hogwarts, Quidditch, Forbidden Forest, Knight Bus, Dobby.

    I talked to an employee (one who typically knows more than the rest) and he said the theme is not EOL. He expected more in their shipment tomorrow and said he also expects to see the castle back on the shelves soon. Hmmm.
    All my Lego stores, save one recently, have been well stocked with the HP sets you speak of continuously. Most Targets and Wallmarts have them too.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I saw a Hogwarts Castle for $90 tonight at a nearby WMT. The box was slightly damaged. Is this set in this condition worth $90...especially if I plan to resell it?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Shoot, I'd take it in a heartbeat. Most people who buy the sets are not collectors anyway -- especially early on.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    edited January 2012
    ^ Agreed. I'd get it. Look at what King's Castle is doing.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    My Lego store was restocked today with HP as well, but none of the good stuff...

    Diagon Alley still not there, no Knight Bus, but otherwise they were full up. They did say they WOULD be getting more Diagon Alley in the next week or two.

    Shame no more Hogwarts Express, but then I guess that has been done twice now. That set was screaming to be motorized...
  • StuBoyStuBoy New ZealandMember Posts: 623
    edited January 2012
    Well, this thread (and others) has got me worried and I purchased another King's Castle for 30% off today. I really like this theme, and might have to go and another MVR. I'm in New Zealand btw, the 2010 sets sold very well, and we only recently seemed to get restocked with Kings Castles, but no other 2010 sets.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I have seen about 4-5 Knight Buses in perfect condition at a couple local WMTs; however, they are not on sale. I figure if they are not EOLing it as has been suggested above, why bother. I did see a Hogwarts Express a couple weeks ago (in fact I was walking arund with it in my hands considering buying it, but didn't) at a local WMT, but that disappeared before I showed up again. I would only consider purchasing HP sets for resale; not to open, as we are probably in the extreme minority of not being fans. It's all SWs in our house when it comes to licensed sets...
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    There were 2 waves of HP in this recent series:
    The first one had Hogwarts Express, Burrow, Freeing Dobby, Quidditch, Hagrid's Hut, Hogwarts Castle

    The 2nd one had Knight Bus, Battle for Hogwarts, Forbidden Forest, Diagon Alley

    I suspect Wave 1 is now being discontinued (thus retirement of Burrow, Hogwarts Express as we have been seeing, the rest to follow soon), and Wave 2 will discontinue in summer near LOTR release. I'd say over the next few months to start looking for deals on the large Hogwarts and Diagon Alley (DA may stay a little longer as it is like a UCS set for HP)...the upcoming target clearance may be a last chance to get some of the other wave 1 HP stuff.
    You may be correct. I believe the employee said he thought Quidditch was done, and that was the only one from the first wave on the shelf. So maybe it is just the second wave that is sticking around.

    He expected some Diagon Alleys in his shipment today.

    I actually don't know why HP can't be an ongoing theme like SW. It definitely has a lot of appeal and even cross-gender appeal. And from what I can tell it sells pretty well. I mean the shelves were bare pre-Christmas and there hadn't been a movie out for over a year.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The shelves might be bare because of speculators, more than fans...

    I know I took all the Hogwarts Express, Knight Bus, and Diagon Alley sets they had before Christmas, so that clearing of the shelves was not from fans.

    Star Wars has the cartoon and books to keep it going, there is new material to keep fan's interest. HP does not have that.
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    Star Wars has the cartoon and books to keep it going, there is new material to keep fan's interest. HP does not have that.
    I believe JK Rowling is continuing to push more Harry Potter content into the world via "Pottermore", see link: http://www.the-leaky-cauldron.org/2011/6/23/pottermore-announcement-details-on-j-k-rowlings-next-harry-potter-project

    However, I'm not sure how much interest this will continue to generate with the existing fan base, or even its ability to capture new fans.
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,434
    I have the castle and the blacksmith sets. You guys are causing me to rethink not picking up more of the sets. STOP IT! :-)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    JK Rowling may not have any desire to create an empire here, who knows...

    George Lucas managed to create something impressive out of what is really a rather silly and simple movie. Pretty cool when you think about it. :)

    Have you ever seen Star Wars in 2 minutes? It has been done in Lego for both trilogies and is on the Padawan Menace Blu-Ray, pretty funny actually...

    The stories in the expanded universe are so much more interesting than the movies, yet most of the Star Wars Lego is just about the common stuff. Shame, really...

    Ok, I'm drifting...

    JK Rowling could create something impressive here, she needs a cartoon, more perhaps more movies, but I do agree there is desire for more HP, but she has to push it, or it will die off without her.

    Or perhaps not, LOTR is still around, but nothing new is being made for it, which is rather a shame...
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