Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Pitfall69

^MMV an overpriced set? It was an excellent value for the price. If it were made today it would be $20-30 more.

doriansdad

RichB said:

Anyone else wondering when MMV will start moving up in value?

Will move up after fall. Problem is alot of sellers who stockpiled at $75 will be dumping at $165....slow climb to $199.

madforLEGO

^-- I never said overpriced, and I believe @RichB said Overproduced, not overpriced. :-)
That being said I completely agree about the value of the set.. 120-130, if lucky with the way LEGO pricing seems to be lately (although the new castle sets looks well priced IMO)
Again it matches with old castle from the eights as well as new castle to be released, as well as LoTR or even as a Renfaire for City... It is a really flexible set

CCC

And unfortunately (or fortunately for MMV resellers) the new castle set appears to be panel dominated when it comes to building, so castle type sets with bricks may be in demand.

richo

In the past month, I have watched a few used #6243 Brickbeard's Bounty, and the auction ending prices for very similar used models has varied from £37.21 to £119.90. What a really unusually large variance!

Pitfall69

madforLEGO said:

^-- I never said overpriced, and I believe @RichB said Overproduced, not overpriced. :-)
That being said I completely agree about the value of the set.. 120-130, if lucky with the way LEGO pricing seems to be lately (although the new castle sets looks well priced IMO)
Again it matches with old castle from the eights as well as new castle to be released, as well as LoTR or even as a Renfaire for City... It is a really flexible set

I get tunnel vision when reading on my phone. First, I read over priced instead of over produced and then I must have hit send about the same time as everyone else and I got pushed down the que. I hate that :(

prevere

richo said:

In the past month, I have watched a few used #6243 Brickbeard's Bounty, and the auction ending prices for very similar used models has varied from £37.21 to £119.90. What a really unusually large variance!

Auction results on eBay are a lot like a box of chocolates...

HarryPotterLover

On The Zombies- luckily I was able to grab mine while they were still around, but Im sorry some people weren't so lucky. This is why LEGO NEEDS to publish retiring dates...but 3-4 months was pretty short, but we cant all have MMV or (and what quickly becoming) FB lifespans...

samiam391

HarryPotterLover said:

This is why LEGO NEEDS to publish retiring dates...

If LEGO did this, it'd suck all the fun out of this thread.

Pitfall69

Is the original topic really the fun part of this thread?

madforLEGO

HarryPotterLover said:

On The Zombies- luckily I was able to grab mine while they were still around, but Im sorry some people weren't so lucky. This is why LEGO NEEDS to publish retiring dates...but 3-4 months was pretty short, but we cant all have MMV or (and what quickly becoming) FB lifespans...

I'm sure there are many reasons why LEGO does not do this. A few I can think of is that it may stop sets from being bought at a consistent flow if many knew when a set was going to retire.
As many people may also wait for sets to go on sale, or clearance, knowing that they will be out until x date, this could also cause stores to not buy as much product and cause supply shortages and possibly make it even more lucrative for resellers when a set does EOL.
I'm also guessing that LEGO cannot dictate how long a retail exclusive ( Like the Zombies) is out(at least in the US), as I think the retail stores do this, not LEGO. They simply order what they want and LEGO produces them.

Ultimately I think LEGO (and their retail outlets that buy LEGO product) would rather have it up to the consumer to know that if they want it buy it and do not assume as to when it will be gone. They'd rather have you buy it now, than wait until 1 month before it goes EOL.

CCC

HarryPotterLover said:

On The Zombies- luckily I was able to grab mine while they were still around, but Im sorry some people weren't so lucky. This is why LEGO NEEDS to publish retiring dates...but 3-4 months was pretty short, but we cant all have MMV or (and what quickly becoming) FB lifespans...

I don't get the logic here. How would publishing a retirement date have helped? It would have made it worse. People in the know (resellers) would have bought all stock if they had known it was going to disappear so quick. Then upped the price and sold to the people that wanted it. The way it worked was that people that wanted the set bought it direct. If someone didn't buy it when it was out, tough. They had the same opportunity as everyone else. It is not up to lego to inform people that the availability of one set was highly limited compared to others.

richo

Publishing retirement dates is something Lego are extremely unlikely to do. It would negatively affect their cash flow from the adult community, as everybody would leave it until the last minute to buy. and yes, it would take the fun out of guessing retirement dates!

doriansdad

Time to get out your Falcons....free ebay listing/ no selling fees for mobile Feb 12-14 in USA. Check your ebay inbox for the invite.

dragonhawk

In November, [email protected] did put the "Retiring Soon" label/tag on several soon to be retired sets. The tags for most of those sets were changed to "Retired Set" a couple of weeks/months later. That was probably as close of indication as you can get from TLG.

However, many (me included) believed that it was a (brilliant) marketing ploy on [email protected] part to move items quickly without significant discounts.

dragonhawk

doriansdad said:

Time to get out your Falcons....free ebay listing/ no selling fees for mobile Feb 12-14 in USA. Check your ebay inbox for the invite.

Ehem, free for ONE mobile listing. At least that is what my invite shows. Not saying you are wrong, eBay is known for sending different invitations to different users. Just double check before starting your "listing spree".

cloaked7

@doriansdad Thanks for the info. Yup, I used that on an Imperial Flagship. eBay was true to their word, they deducted the fees for that sell on my month end invoice. I could be wrong, but since I've already participated I don't think I'll get another invite. I haven't so far.

FollowsClosely

I shared this in another thread, thought I would document it here as well.

FollowsClosely said:

Most of us admit that we have no clue what LEGO is doing with the lifespan of the modulars. Let's take a look at the brickset availability dates: The first three sets follow the 2 year and done pattern rather nicely with 538, 774 and 613 days of availability. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your perspective) the pattern ends there. The FB and GE are both way over the two year pattern, and the PS is rather close. The only thing I can tell you for certain is if you like the looks of it; get it now. Especially the GE, PS and FB.

Market Street #10190 24 Oct 07 - 14 Apr 09 = 538 days
Cafe Corner #10182 24 Oct 07 - 06 Dec 09 = 774 days
Green Grocer #10185 05 Mar 08 - 08 Nov 10 = 613 days
Fire Brigade #10197 12 Sep 09 - now = 1250 days and climbing
Grand Emporium #10211 03 Mar 10 - now = 1078 days and climbing
Pet Shop #10218 12 May 11 - now = 643 days and climbing
Town Hall #10224 03 Mar 12 - now = 347 days and climbing
Palace Cinema #10232 14 Feb 13 - now = -1 days and climbing

hoyatables

Be VERY careful with eBay and their "free" listings. I posted something after receiving their offer and they claimed that it wasn't legitimate after I sold the item and charged me the final value fee. They claimed it was not a valid offer because they could not find any record in my "myebay" messages. I just had an email.

doriansdad

dragonhawk said:

doriansdad said:

Time to get out your Falcons....free ebay listing/ no selling fees for mobile Feb 12-14 in USA. Check your ebay inbox for the invite.

Ehem, free for ONE mobile listing. At least that is what my invite shows. Not saying you are wrong, eBay is known for sending different invitations to different users. Just double check before starting your "listing spree".

Yep just one listing....sorry for the misunderstanding.

mathew

^^ Interesting. Fire Brigade has been out for over twice as long as Green Grocer. Green Grocer currently goes for around $675 average on ebay. Following a similar trajectory, my guess is that FB will be going for around $500 in three years post-EOL. The real question is how quickly it will jump in price. I say it takes at least 15 months post-EOL for it to hit $300.

TheLoneTensor

There's no way FB's vector will be same the GG. FB is WAY more stocked in closets than GG is or ever was.

mathew

^ Exactly. That's why I knocked around $200 off. Three years to hang onto a set is also a long time. That's why it will be interesting to see how much it jumps in price after it EOL's. Most people will want to sell it within 12 months of EOL which will also probably also cause a glut on the market.

cloaked7

^ I don't think the FB will follow the same trajectory as the GG. FB has been available for twice as long and for some steep discounts. So, my guess is that the great majority of people that wanted a FB have one. No one knows but LEGO, but my guess is that at least twice as many FB's were produced. Lastly, I think it's a very safe bet that a lot more people are sitting on the FB for resell than ever bought more than 1 GG.

There simply shouldn't be the same demand for the FB as for the GG. The FB may never hit $500. It may never hit $300. It will definitely be interesting to see how it plays out.

LegobrandonCP

IMO, I think the FB will reach a maximum of $250 in a year or two after EOL. there are way too many sitting in resellers closet at the moment. Heck, some might even have to sell below MSRP to get rid of em.

SiE

I dont think there will be much money in FB. Too many people riding that wagon. Its often the unexpected sets you hit big on these days. Which are becoming fewer are much far between. Dont get me wrong you will not lose money, but i just cant see it x3 or 4 rrp. I have a few but i wish i had bought other sets at the time which are maturing nicely.

richo

^ agreed. I haven't even bought one, and don't fancy it. If therefore a huge lego fan like me isn't too fussed, I wonder who is going to be buying the thousands stashed away.

prevere

If you wait long enough, FB will be worth it. Those who need to dump the set will. It might take 3-5 years, but it will be worth 2x RRP+.

As I see it, FB has been around longer because the demand for modulars has increased. So when production shuts down, the demand will still exist, if not slowly grow.

For any of these fly-by-night "Minecraft-type" sellers, they will give up and dump the set and move on. Long-term, any of these large sculpture type sets will increase. I haven't seen one yet that hasn't gone up.

mathew

richo said:

^ agreed. I haven't even bought one, and don't fancy it. If therefore a huge lego fan like me isn't too fussed, I wonder who is going to be buying the thousands stashed away.

I agree. Nice looking modular, but I never was into the firehouse thing even as a kid.

Pitfall69

^With that logic I suppose Lego should stop producing fire stations and related products because a few people on Brickset said they don't like them. I am sure Lego does their market research and they find that firehouses and stations appeal to the masses or else they wouldn't put a new one out every other year.

Pitfall69

prevere said:

If you wait long enough, FB will be worth it. Those who need to dump the set will. It might take 3-5 years, but it will be worth 2x RRP+.

As I see it, FB has been around longer because the demand for modulars has increased. So when production shuts down, the demand will still exist, if not slowly grow.

For any of these fly-by-night "Minecraft-type" sellers, they will give up and dump the set and move on. Long-term, any of these large sculpture type sets will increase. I haven't seen one yet that hasn't gone up.

To me, it isn't all about the set itself. I think it is a great set for parts. Love that dark red.

I think we all agree we won't see GG prices, but FB should still double your money at least.

HarryPotterLover

True, true, I mean, without speculation- what else would we do in between building? :D

Hardrada

prevere said:

If you wait long enough, FB will be worth it. Those who need to dump the set will. It might take 3-5 years, but it will be worth 2x RRP+.

That's a bit contradictory. A set that only rises slowly in value is not really worth it as an investment.

Pitfall69

^All depends on how slow. As long as it performs better than the average stock in the same time period then it would be ok.

pharmjod

^ I was thinking the same thing. I've actually contemplated selling my fire brigades at a modest loss just to free up the cash and space for a better investment. I only have 10 so it's not a huge investment to begin with, but I can't help but think I could better invest $800-$1000 elsewhere in the Lego world in the next 12 months that would yield a better / quicker return.

Pitfall69

^There are always better investments to be had, but few offer less risk then investing in Lego (as of right now)

BlueMoonUSA

Has LFT been EOL'd??

Basta

BlueMoonUSA said:

Has LFT been EOL'd??

He's off worrying about what to do with all his FB's, which are now,apparently a bad investment :P

pharmjod

@Pitfall69 that's why I said better investment in the Lego world... :) I just think there will be better opportunities in the next year to buy Lego sets that will more quickly appreciate than what FB will. Hence the reason I'd be willing to take a small loss on them just to free up capital.

Pitfall69

^He's alive and well.

samiam391

BlueMoonUSA said:

Has LFT been EOL'd??

Unfortunately, I believe a lot of negativity directed towards some of his opinions has quieted him up for a bit.

It's quite sad really that someone feels the need to have to step back on a LEGO forum. I mean, we're all supposed to be nice guys (and gals), right? :-)

I hope to see him back on the forums soon, as even though I may not have agreed with him all the time, I always appreciated his comments and insight.

Pitfall69

^I know people on here can't stand me :0. I am brutality honest, and for some that rubs them the wrong way. I have always tried to be civil and try not to cause arguments and try to get people to not get into one. Lately, I have probably have come off more of an a$$ then I usually am. I am truly sorry for that. I think the negativity has rubbed me the wrong way and I'm acting different.

I just want to know when the Death Star is EOLin...Please!!!! For the love of God someone tell me!!!!

BlueMoonUSA

samiam391 said:

BlueMoonUSA said:

Has LFT been EOL'd??

Unfortunately, I believe a lot of negativity directed towards some of his opinions has quieted him up for a bit.

It's quite sad really that someone feels the need to have to step back on a LEGO forum. I mean, we're all supposed to be nice guys (and gals), right? :-)

I hope to see him back on the forums soon, as even though I may not have agreed with him all the time, I always appreciated his comments and insight.

Likewise. One of the draws of this thread, tbh. Always looked forward to hearing his snippets of info, EOL predictions and deals to be had. Hopefully his sabbatical is only temporary.

madforLEGO

So what I essentially keep hearing is that LFT was 'driven off' by the masses of those against the 'evil reseller'? Are we just assuming that LFT is gone because of 'thin skin', or is this a fact?
I only ask because I think it is fair that many of us have been in larger 'dust ups' on the forums on different sides of arguments and are still around, same with LFT.
I'd like to think that LFT is made of sterner stuff than that.

Basta

^ add to that, It is also the slow time of year for buying Lego at discount (Sales) and also for reselling, so not as much to talk about from that side of things.

Pitfall69

^Definitely not because of thin skin. I think that whole blow up about having him be held accountable for his speculation posts turned him off.

I would like to add that @LegoFanTexas and I didn't get off on the right foot in the beginning.

Hoping for his return as well :)

dragonhawk

^^^ If I would venture a guess, it was more WHO rebuked the "evil resellers" / LFT as supposed to WHAT being said/written. He probably felt unwelcome afterwards. I have read skipped through many posts involving LFT throughout bricksetforum (several of which disappear overnight ;) ) He definitely has some thick skin.

Count me as ones who miss @LegoFanTexas 's insight and business knowledge.

Pitfall69

^Yeah, "skipped" through. Wow...many many pages of dialogue.

BrickDancer

It's kinda like the Brickset sitcom lost one of its main characters. Can we all hit a 'reset' button?

doriansdad

I am thinking LFT was actually put off when the mods reprimanded the countdown of 10212 going EOL. Let's be honest, this thread has more views than all of the others combined, and LFT was responsible for drawing in a lot of those page views. He can take a lot of the credit for making this site what it is today. His posts were passionate, informative and entertaining. I know he also interacted often in the marketplace. I have a feeling the mods may have bit the hand that fed them. If he pops up on another forum you can bet all the traffic will follow. There are an abundance of dull, sterile forums discussing bricks to choose from....not many have contributors like LFT that hook you into refreshing your browser constantly....hopefully he will return.