Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

TheLoneTensor

Minecraft is back in stock at S@H (limit 5 now).

We knew this, or at least we should have expected the out of stock? retiring? yo-yo that is 21102 to spin back up.

gofigure19

TRU canceled my 10213 order today.

Diggydoes

Today #7962 & #7961 "sold out" at s@h (Germany! btw was able to get 7962 for 50% off!yeey)! I guess they will run out of production soon, i´m really curious how #7962 will perform, i know it´s been on sale forever, but i think it´s a nice play-set with rare pieces (lots of orange, trans-clear Technic beams) and a nice Minifig-selection (Watto!!!)!

prevere

^In my ultimate wisdom or stupidity (you pick), I think 7962 is a dud. Watto is over-rated. Even without the massive sales on this, my answer would be the same.

If you bought it for $34, then you can double your money quickly. Otherwise not so much.

BrickDancer

^Think the same, its not that desirable when out and its a set that's hard to display. My guess is that it will eventually get to 1.5-1.75xRRP max but will be slow to get there (~2 years).

Disclosure: Fortunately I did get my 4 copies at $34 =P

Shpadoinkle

I have been buying up all the #7962 and #7961 I can lay my hands on. The former I gave to my Godsons for Christmas and after seeing the amount of enjoyment they got from it I felt it would be a winner.

#7961 had an unusually high RRP but I think the Maul figure is the reason for that, and I have been buying them at discount for the last month. Though I missed out on one of them the other day: a little boy was standing in the Lego aisle trying to pick out a toy (his parents had obviously given him a "budget" of $20) and he was really trying their patience (it was 8:45 PM and they were obviously tired and ready to go home.) I excused myself and pointed out that the #7961 I had in my hand was on clearance for 50% retail and was their last one and they would be welcome to it. The kid looked up hopefully at mom and dad, and their eyes gleamed with the good deal they could get. I handed it over to them and gave a wink to the kid as they walked off. That made my day far more than the purchase would have I can tell you!

Brickarmor

Oo, oo, I've got a good deed story too! Totally unrelated to the "topic" here... A few days ago a family was on the aisle at Target with me, 3 boys and 1 girl, kids grabbing stuff and parents complaining about prices, so I told them about price matching with Amazon. The boys got Ultra Sonic Raider for $20 off, girl got Heartlake Stables, parents thanked me gratuitously.

Crownie

Looking ahead, what do you see doing better in terms of aftermarket value - #6857 The Dynamic Duo Funhouse Escape or #9496 The Orc Forge? Thought I'd pick another one up, but I'm not quite sure which one to pull the trigger on. (Of course they'd both be a blast to play with, so that's always a fun option...)

These store/LEGO exclusives seem a bit hard to peg sometimes. (Except the Zombies. Really, that should've been a no-brainer. Pun intended.)

kim43235

Not to brag here or anything but would like to continue to share a little non-reseller-mind story. Recently I scored a haul containing Batman #7783, #7784, #7787, Creator #4998, Mars Mission #7644 and #7690 for little over $200. I haven't built any yet but they looked to be complete (at least figures) and bricks are like new condition. I was thrilled to get them.

A day later the seller contacted me whether he could buy back a small ship from Mars mission as his son customized it. I searched for it and it was part from #7690. But It's not even a complete ship and it wasn't even customized one. I looked the manual and it was exactly like it. But somehow his son wanted that. It was very interesting to me as a kid can so attach to a small lego pieces that he believe customized which I don't see much value in it. Anyhow, I said I will send the whole #7690 set as it would be meaningless to have just this ship. I could make money off it but Lego is kid's toy after all. Also he gave me such a good deal so I couldn't ask him for money for it. I asked him for a shipping fee though :) Hope his son enjoys the set. Never knew #7690 but it looks so fun.

y2josh

Crownie said:

Looking ahead, what do you see doing better in terms of aftermarket value - #6857 The Dynamic Duo Funhouse Escape or #9496 The Orc Forge? Thought I'd pick another one up, but I'm not quite sure which one to pull the trigger on. (Of course they'd both be a blast to play with, so that's always a fun option...)

These store/LEGO exclusives seem a bit hard to peg sometimes. (Except the Zombies. Really, that should've been a no-brainer. Pun intended.)

Tough call on this one. The value of the Funhouse is likely going to be tied quite closely to how many of those figures turn up in other sets, whereas the Orc Forge is part of a line that I feel will have its aftermarket driven entirely by the minifigs... but the figures in that set are pretty poor. The shields and helmets (and the light brick) are the only real draws to that set, unfortunately. Still, LotR's apparent slow sales may only serve to drive the aftermarket prices higher (obviously, the reverse could also be true).

hoyatables

^^^^Little Timmy gets his deal!!! and it only took 214 pages :).

rocao

I'm not trying to diminish anyone's deeds, just relating my own stories:

One of my favorite things to do is to give LEGO to children that strike me as conscientious and thoughtful. This usually happens when I'm in the LEGO aisle and I witness a child deliberating between some very small LEGO sets and overhear the budget set by their parents. The most memorable one was a kid whose parent offered to buy a ~$20 set but the child said it was too expensive and opted for a $5 Star Wars polybag saying that he'd have just as much fun with it. I quickly bought an #8038 Battle of Endor, found them in the store, and gave it to him.

mak

^ Are kids allowed to accept gifts from strangers these days? :-)

TheLoneTensor

You bought them a $100 set? Wow.

Dougout

^I'm sure the parent that was with him is. That's awfully nice of @rocao to give a $100 set to a conscientious kid. I would have been ecstatic if someone bought me a big playset in a store when my mother said it was too expensive. Many people forget what its like to be disappointed as a child.

LegobrandonCP

@rocao I'm deciding between the Cafe Corner and Green Grocer, but they are way too expensive, so I'm just gonna get the Pet Shop.

Wanna help me out here? ;)

Kidding aside, it is very generous of you to of have given a stranger a $100 set. I certainly remember my parents setting a budget when I was young and not being able to get the item I wanted unless a special occasion came up.

rocao

^^ Being a parent, I am keenly aware of not wanting to compromise the guidelines they have set. I always make sure to ask the parents if it is ok first, and actually usually give it to the parent. I don't mind if they get the credit. :P

Part of the reason I am selective of the kids is because I don't want to reinforce entitlement. Similarly, whenever I do the Holiday wish drives/giving trees, I find the kids that ask for backpacks. I buy a backpack, and fill it with school supplies AND toys :)

jcb193

Great stories! I love hearing about these random acts of kindness.

So what's the consensus on the Jabba set? I know there was some media stories about it, and wondered if there was any chance of it getting pulled. I have to say the set is a little ho hum, but love the minifigs. Possibly the best minfig set ever in my opinion (also like the playability of the jabba chair and trapdoor.

prevere

While we're on the subject....and it's nice to see this pop up randomly as opposed to early December.

There's a great Chinese take-out around the corner. The owner's two young boys are always there. So once in awhile I'll hit Wally across the street first and bring them a set before I pick up my Sesame Chicken.

Pitfall69

jcb193 said:

Great stories! I love hearing about these random acts of kindness.

So what's the consensus on the Jabba set? I know there was some media stories about it, and wondered if there was any chance of it getting pulled. I have to say the set is a little ho hum, but love the minifigs. Possibly the best minfig set ever in my opinion (also like the playability of the jabba chair and trapdoor.

No chance of it being pulled. They need it to pair with the Rancor Pit.

I have so many poor friends and family, I find myself shelling out $100's every other week. While it is great to help out strangers, which we do a lot, family comes first. It is great to see all these acts of kindness though. Keep it up guys :)

Pitfall69

^I went to my local TRU today and last week they had Jabbas Palace on display, but it was removed and replaces with Monster Fighters. Interesting...

jcb193

So i was sitting here bored tonight and decided to build my Millenium Falcon (new one) tonight. I was extremely dismayed to see that the set required about 30 stickers to look good, and then even more annoyed when I saw that all the stickers had curled and warped, even though it was a brand new set. I am guessing it was exposed to extreme heat or cold at some point. Anyway, I was wondering two things:
1.) Are there any lego fans that like stickers at all?
2.) Do sets that feature stickers have less long term collectibility, due to the chance for damage or the fact that stickers eventually fall off?

y2josh

^To your first question, I don't know that anyone LIKES them, per se, but there's definitely a good portion of the community that is ambivalent towards them. Personally, I don't mind them when they're optional (the brick detailing for flat panels on castles and fortresses or laser scoring on starships, for example), but find them more annoying when they're necessary to 'complete' the set (the marquee on Palace Cinema, for example).

To the second question, I imagine it's dependent on what condition the stickers are in. I have several sets that are ~15 years old with the stickers applied and they're as good as new, so it's not necessarily the stickers in and of themselves that make them better or worse for long-term collectability.

BrickDancer

^^1) Printed parts are usually preferred, but stickers are better than nothing. Plus you can use them for other purposes like MOC'ing. I have a spare sheet for sets I own and will keep long term, as well as buying random sheets when found cheap.

2) It usually doesn't reduce a set's long collectibility or value. But rather its the sticker's collectibility and value that increases with the set's desirability over time. Case in point are sticker sheets for any of the UCS models, Lamborghini's, etc. Extra value placed on licensed sets or ones that are heavily reliant, i.e. Maersk, Boeing, etc.

mrtonytj

jcb193 said:

and then even more annoyed when I saw that all the stickers had curled and warped, even though it was a brand new set.

I had exactly the same problem with mine? Only a few weeks after building it the round stickers around the top of the engine area started to peel then the one surrounding the top turret gun peeled too.. None of my other hundred or so sets with stickers have peeled in any way.. Maybe it's a problem with that set?? Has anyone else had this problem??

dougts

mrtonytj said:

jcb193 said:

and then even more annoyed when I saw that all the stickers had curled and warped, even though it was a brand new set.

I had exactly the same problem with mine? Only a few weeks after building it the round stickers around the top of the engine area started to peel then the one surrounding the top turret gun peeled too.. None of my other hundred or so sets with stickers have peeled in any way.. Maybe it's a problem with that set?? Has anyone else had this problem??

same problem with mine. when i opened, the sticker sheet was actually pretty flat. a week after applying, several of the round ones that go on the back top of the MF had curled and half unpeeled themselves. seems like the stock was either highly prone to curling, the adhesive was too weak, or both.

tof

^ and ^^ same for me, all the stickers at the top of the MF have curled up a lot.

y2josh

Took a look at mine just to be sure, but all of the stickers on mine seem to be as good as the day they were applied, so maybe there was a faulty batch. I picked mine up about two months after it came out. Was everyone else's from a similar time frame?

BrickDancer

^Dont know when mine was manufactured, but it's been built and on display for almost a year and all stickers look fine. But I did buy a spare sheet in case they do go bad at some point.

JamesJT

SiE said:

JamesJT said:

SiE said:

Pitfall69 said:

SiE said:

Pitfall69 said:

^Speaking of which...What's the ceiling on the Carousel? Does anyone have some still stock or have sold one recently?

I sold one outside of ebay for 700 before xmas. Inside your looking at 800. Of course thats for a sealed set. Used can be found for a lot less (450-550)

$700-800 USD or £'s. Completed listings are showing the Carousel being sold at around $1,100-1,300 and new listings as high as $1,800+

£ sorry I always forget to mention that. I have another listed on eBay at the moment for £850 and they seem to be going up and up. I am tempted to take it off and wait another 6-12 months.

£1200 now! Form an orderly queue....

I raised it based on international prices. Its on the way up again at the moment. Like i said, i was gonna pull it as its going through a lot of movement at the moment. I reckon these will sell for 1000+ from now on. Just gutted its my only one now. I dont think there are many in the wild still sealed.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/200885543501?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1438.l2649

Still too much for me.

madforLEGO

dougts said:

mrtonytj said:

jcb193 said:

and then even more annoyed when I saw that all the stickers had curled and warped, even though it was a brand new set.

I had exactly the same problem with mine? Only a few weeks after building it the round stickers around the top of the engine area started to peel then the one surrounding the top turret gun peeled too.. None of my other hundred or so sets with stickers have peeled in any way.. Maybe it's a problem with that set?? Has anyone else had this problem??

same problem with mine. when i opened, the sticker sheet was actually pretty flat. a week after applying, several of the round ones that go on the back top of the MF had curled and half unpeeled themselves. seems like the stock was either highly prone to curling, the adhesive was too weak, or both.

Are they curling because of the way you are taking them off of the sheet? I know that when I peel stickers off of a sheet for postal labels if you pull them in a way that curls the ends that you see a tendency for that really curled section to peel back up.
I like stickers, but I think the materials for making them has changed and that is the problem IMO.
Plenty of old stickers can still be found in good condition, why? I think because of a couple of things actually.
One they were never removed and tried to be reseated but I think the other and main reason is I believe they were thicker than they are now, better quality materials in making them.
The sticker quality has gone down with the rest of the quality controls IMO.

Farmer_John

I've been comparing the aftermarket pricing on eBay for the Maersk Train #10219 and the Emerald Night #10194 on eBay. The Emerald night was discontinued on 25Nov11 and the Maersk Train was discontinued on 23Oct12. From what I can find the Maersk train has almost caught up to the Emerald Night in aftermarket price. Granted, the Maersk train had a slightly higher RRP at $119.99 than the Emerald Night at $99.99.

Both are obviously different types of train sets; however, I still like the classic look of the EN. Any thoughts on the EN's price topping out or is it still going up? I'm also wondering how high the Maersk Train is going to go since it has almost doubled from RRP in a few months.

Renny

This might sound silly but I'm wondering if the fact that the Emerald Night only comes with one passenger train is hurting it's aftermarket "ceiling" value. I know I brick linked 2 other passenger trains since I just feel that having one makes the train seem a little incomplete. Does someone want to pay the $200 price tag if that means they would also plan to purchase another passenger train or two?

The Maersk train on the other hand gives off a more complete appearance to me so I don't really have the impulse or need to purchase another to extend the train.

madforLEGO

I think the reason why is that LEGO miscalculated the demand of EN and made too many of which many were discounted pretty heavily at LEGO before they finally EOL'd, Whereas People expecting Maersks to drop under 100 were not so lucky, and only had moderate drops on LEGOs site before EOL'ing.
As a result many people bought a lot of ENs at about 60-70 dollars whereas Maersk's cheapest I ever saw was about 100 dollars (maybe 90-95 I think at one point)
I'm sure not having two passenger cars slightly effects the EN pricing, but it appears EN is climbing again.
All in all I think maybe people expect EN to have a hard time rising, due to the number that could have been cheaply bought before it discontinued.

mrtonytj

I got mine about six months after release in australia.. Also i am INCREDIBLY careful when removing and placing stickers.. Henc why the rest are still perfect apart form this one.. Here are some pics..




And to a lesser extent..

mathew

What confuses me is why on some sets Lego uses stickers for everything even when it's not needed (Mines of Moria) and on other sets they print everything (Cars).

MathBuilder

^ The target age range is one of the reasons. It is cheaper for them in most cases to just make stickers but these might be unsuitable for younger audiences, Imagine a child having to apply stickers correctly to all the cars in Cars, probably it would require parents help + stickers wearing off faster due to playability, etc... and hence parents calling customer service to complain and request replacements. Not worth it for them, plus many of this printed pieces are newly made ad-hoc pieces for those sets so they might as well design them printed.

For older kids and AFOLS applying stickers is easy and there are some who actually prefer the finishing the stickers give. Similarly most pieces in the Moria set are pieces used in many other sets just without the sticker.

TheLoneTensor

Farmer_John said:

I've been comparing the aftermarket pricing on eBay for the Maersk Train #10219 and the Emerald Night #10194 on eBay. The Emerald night was discontinued on 25Nov11 and the Maersk Train was discontinued on 23Oct12. From what I can find the Maersk train has almost caught up to the Emerald Night in aftermarket price. Granted, the Maersk train had a slightly higher RRP at $119.99 than the Emerald Night at $99.99.

Both are obviously different types of train sets; however, I still like the classic look of the EN. Any thoughts on the EN's price topping out or is it still going up? I'm also wondering how high the Maersk Train is going to go since it has almost doubled from RRP in a few months.

I'm with you on all except the part about the RRP being "slightly" higher. It's a full 20% higher, which will eat into profits. Other than that, I think it EOL'd a bit quicker than people imagined, mostly because it EOL'd at full price at most places, as opposed to going on sale/clearance.

Some sets are simply worth getting at full price, most aren't. I can see the Haunted House following the same pattern. A lot of people are probably waiting for it to go on sale, like under $150 before they pull the trigger, and that might not ever happen.

madforLEGO

I see that FB is 119 at both Target and Amazon.com and Walmart used to have it at a 119 price, but typical walmart.com, you cannot find the item online, although Im guessing they are on the site somewhere.

Wondering if this should really be sounding the EOL trumpets shortly for FB, as I cannot imagine that many people are still buying these for 150 if they can be found at other places for such a price, unless this is how Mods will be selling in which case Im not buying a PS for 150, 140, 130 anymore if all that will happen is a site eventually putting them up for only 119...lol

cloaked7

madforLEGO said:

I think the reason why is that LEGO miscalculated the demand of EN and made too many of which many were discounted pretty heavily at LEGO before they finally EOL'd...

Not sure if LEGO made too many EN's. I think it's more the change in the way LEGO discontinues sets now. That being, they don't just mark a set down 20% when it is near EOL. They label it 'Retiring Soon', etc. and sell the remaining stock at RRP. I think the way the sets were retired is the main difference.

CCC

mathew said:

What confuses me is why on some sets Lego uses stickers for everything even when it's not needed (Mines of Moria) and on other sets they print everything (Cars).

I get annoyed about this one ...


printed (HH, orc forge, uruk hai army)

yet these ones ...



(unexpected gathering) and



(goblin king) are stickered. There is a similar stickered piece in an older HP set too. If they can make printed woodgrain planks for the first sets, why not for the others. They could even have used the same piece, or not included the nail pattern.

More annoying, they print this piece in the Sith Nightspeeder,



yet then expect you to use stickers for other similar pieces. I'd prefer all printed, or all stickered. At least stickered here would give you the option of using the otherwise useless grey with brown print pieces for rocks.

jcb193

I just hate stickers period. You can see the lines. They invite an element of aging or warping, and to me, they don't look any better and mess up the clean lines of a lego piece. It's just lazy. It's not like they aren't printing hundreds of thousands of these sets.

prevere

^^Nice visual CCC. Boy that is wacky to see the variations. Reminds me of some of those minifig heads that are so similar, yet different.

TheLoneTensor

Not quite sure why we're discussing stickers and printing in this thread.

jcb193

tensor said:

Not quite sure why we're discussing stickers and printing in this thread.

I asked if anybody thought that lego sets that featured lots of stickers would be less collectable over time because of the potential for warping or loss of adhesive.

hoyatables

tensor said:

I'm with you on all except the part about the RRP being "slightly" higher. It's a full 20% higher, which will eat into profits. Other than that, I think it EOL'd a bit quicker than people imagined, mostly because it EOL'd at full price at most places, as opposed to going on sale/clearance.

Some sets are simply worth getting at full price, most aren't. I can see the Haunted House following the same pattern. A lot of people are probably waiting for it to go on sale, like under $150 before they pull the trigger, and that might not ever happen.

Furthermore, my guess is that some resellers wait for the sale, which could mean a more limited supply in the aftermarket.

TheLoneTensor

Exactly, if you could go back in time you can trace most of the gems - EN, IF, GG, CC, Winter Toy Shop and many others, their ends were all heralded with sales and/or clearance events. Now we have to contend with the additional parameter that a great secondary market set may very well EOL at (or very near) full price - Maersk, Winter Bakery, etc.

prevere

^I think that could result in an initial higher sale price for EOL'd sets. Especially, for the larger ones.

A) Reseller needs to charge more
B) Less quantity on the market

dragonhawk

^ Additionally:
C) Buyers who are willing to spend much more than RRP for an item

kim43235

Fire Temple anyone? It's from TRU@ebay. Not a great price for reselling but one for keeping it. $150 + tax. NOTE: It may get cancelled :)

http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-Ninjago-Fire-Temple-2507-/190794618401?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item2c6c3ed621