Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

cloaked7

wagnerml2 said:

It might severely depress the resale market, but I'm sure TLG could care less about that.

Sorry to be the grammar police, but I think you meant "TLG couldn't care less..." :-) And, believe me. I am not perfect. Not meaning to come across as such. Just one of my pet peeves.

samiam391

mathew said:

Pitfall69 said:

People are silent and you and your comments give them every reason to be.

I like you Pit. But my playing devil's advocate is hardly reason someone might quit posting. I think reselling is a lot like horse betting which is why we have such diverse and conflicting personalities on this forum. Certain people might just be bored with the races and are wanting to cash out their chips for a different sport.

I think there is a difference between a conflicting personality, and "picking" on someone else you disagree with every opportunity that you receive.

That being said, how about that death star?

Perhaps this thread is running out of sets to discuss...

roxio

How about 8038 Endor? I was sat on a stack hoping for a Xmas 2012 price spike that didn't really materialise. Average buying price was £50 so I should be ok in the long run. Maybe an Ewok Village set would help ;)

Renny

I'm kind of surprised the Battle of Endor set isn't doing better. It has a lot going for it I think personally.

Pitfall69

^How about that for a "New" set to discuss. This is exactly why I didn't buy but one. Just like Home One. I grabbed one at Walmart for $60. The same set was there for at least a week. I just grabbed it. When I see sets just sitting around after discounted heavily, I try to avoid buying them for resell. That being said, I'm still surprised as well. I kinda like the set.

FollowsClosely

Renny said:

I'm kind of surprised the Battle of Endor set isn't doing better. It has a lot going for it I think personally.

I picked up 20 at $66 usd. That low price point may be part of the reasons this set is moving up so slow.

Pitfall69

@mathew

Of course you like me. What's there not to like? I'm adored by many from around the world...lol :)

Pitfall69

There are plenty of sets to discus other than FB and IS.

Brickarmor

I will be very interested to see what gets nixed in the spring/summer clearances. No new Ninjago, wave after wave of Chima, new Lone Ranger and LotR, a few Superheroes: that's some tight shelf space. I'm guessing green box Ninjago, MF, and some DC/Marvel stuff will be the first to go sometime in May or June.

samiam391

Pitfall69 said:

There are plenty of sets to discus other than FB and IS.

You better believe there are... they just somehow never seem to be well... discussed.

Pitfall69

There are also plenty of other interesting discussions going on in other threads including the minifigure companion thread to this thread. Minifigures do drive some sets, so it is worth to take a peak.

Pitfall69

Brickarmor said:

I will be very interested to see what gets nixed in the spring/summer clearances. No new Ninjago, wave after wave of Chima, new Lone Ranger and LotR, a few Superheroes: that's some tight shelf space. I'm guessing green box Ninjago, MF, and some DC/Marvel stuff will be the first to go sometime in May or June.

I'm curious myself. I think the Lone Ranger theme will do well. Superheroes always does well. I love the new Aquaman. Somethings got to give.

wagnerml2

cloaked7 said:

wagnerml2 said:

It might severely depress the resale market, but I'm sure TLG could care less about that.

Sorry to be the grammar police, but I think you meant "TLG couldn't care less..." :-) And, believe me. I am not perfect. Not meaning to come across as such. Just one of my pet peeves.

Thats ok. I should have been more pacific in my meaning.... ;)

FollowsClosely

wagnerml2 said:

Thats ok. I should have been more pacific in my meaning.... ;)

Nice.

Dougout

^^Me as well, and I must say I agree Lone Ranger seems like a sure hit. With Chima, Lone Ranger, new LoTR, TMNT, Superheroes and 5 modulars, Lego stores will seem overstocked this coming spring. Some first wave LoTR may disappear (Mines of Moria seems to have done poorly) and I doubt Monster Fighters would leave, but if it does I think Haunted House will stay till at least Halloween, more likely into next year.

Anyway, I think some stores will have to pick and choose which sets they want to actually display effectively and which ones they want to shuffle off to the sides.

charlatan13

I was wondering about shelf space specifically in regard to LotR. You have the first wave, the Hobbit sets and the summer wave coming up. I still have to buy the Orc Forge (hoping for some sort of a discount since it isn't very impressive to me out of all of the sets) and at least a few more of the Uruk ones for extra figures. The only sets that don't seem to be moving are the galaxy squad ones, but that's just what I am seeing here. It just seems as if there are so many exciting lines out right now that something has to give in terms of shelf space. Any ideas?

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

There are plenty of sets to discus other than FB and IS.

There ARE?
Whoops, I mean.. "There are.'

I think right now the predictions are going south, because it is usually not the time of year for LEGO to sell out of a set.

I have noticed though that sets sales seem to be increasing now.. maybe everyone is getting over their Christmas/Holiday Hangover.

I like the lone ranger stuff, not so much for how well it can do EOL but for parts and that train engine.
I really do not see many 'winners' this year.. I'm guessing the City Hospital/ helicopter rescue or whatever they call it if it retires like other Walmart Exclusives do.
Maybe the City Mine, but since so many people cleared out Walmarts when they were half off who knows.
VW Van I think should do well once gone, and TB... again even though people are buying them, I still think they should do OK.
Maybe Kingdoms Joust, although the subject is really specific Vs the MMV which can be used in many contexts IMO.

GE I think may not be as popular when it goes EOL, but then again it is a corner and if many people are 'meh' about it maybe that will help it in the long run for the die hard collectors/ AFOLs out there that must have every set.

madforLEGO

charlatan13 said:

I was wondering about shelf space specifically in regard to LotR. You have the first wave, the Hobbit sets and the summer wave coming up. I still have to buy the Orc Forge (hoping for some sort of a discount since it isn't very impressive to me out of all of the sets) and at least a few more of the Uruk ones for extra figures. The only sets that don't seem to be moving are the galaxy squad ones, but that's just what I am seeing here. It just seems as if there are so many exciting lines out right now that something has to give in terms of shelf space. Any ideas?

I would buy the Orc Forge.. It is a target Exclusive after all and it is hit or miss as to how long it will stay... But seeing how it seems the Zombies set just kinda disappeared and took many off guard Id say if you want one get at least one now.
I forgot to get one this weekend when I hit the LEGO store, I wanted the hospital set bu they were all gone.

cloaked7

Yup, I agree. The Orc Forge will probably be the most rare LOTR set Along with that is the potential to be hard to find later, or go up in price, or both.

Renny

I kind of like the Orc Forge as a set. I think you probably need more than 1 though to make it a "forge" but it's not a bad value at retail. I like the addition of the white marked helmets and shields and the light brick is always a great addition.

charlatan13

I keep on thinking I will pick up the Forge when I am at Target, but it hasn't been back in stock yet. I'll just order one online since I hope to accumulate all of the LotR sets and I would kick myself if I missed out. I do like the white hand pieces and another light brick is always a welcome addition. I still wonder what sets will be pushed to the side since it seems as if there are so many great lines out right now.

BuriedinBricks

The Zombies has broken the $100 mark. Just plain shocked at how quickly it's gone up.

FatMatt

^I certainly wish I would have picked up more than I did. I had 10 put away, all purchased within the last few months for $30-$32 a piece. I have already sold all 10 for $110 a piece(shipping included). I think they might be pushing close to $150 by Christmas, but I am completely content with my profit for only having them a very short time, and I can now reinvest that into other sets.

dougts

iccarus said:

The Zombies has broken the $100 mark. Just plain shocked at how quickly it's gone up.

I'm not. I saw that set ONCE in a local target when it first came out. never came back again. my LEGO store got it in once as well at the initial launch - never got it back again.

I never bought one for myself, let alone resell.

Nintendawg

^ Crazy. Highlights the fact the hardest thing to predict is the actions of other resellers. Buy big on stuff no ones buying for huge potential rewards, or play it safe with known sets and smaller profit margins?

Anyway I think Lone Ranger will be a theme with very different demand depending on location. In America I can see this selling. It's an old piece of Americana. But I think it will be a hard sell pretty much everywhere else considering they must pay "licensed set tax". I won't be touching the theme for at least six months to see how it goes.

Shpadoinkle

I'm kind of late to the "The Zombies" train, but a set that was only out for three months? What the heck is that all about?!

Brickarmor

Zombies is ENTIRELY minifig driven. It has no unique parts (aside from the minifigs and moonstone) and can be Bricklinked or even pulled from one's stash quite easily. I managed to find a whopping 2 sets in Nov, sold both sealed, bought the figs, instructions, and a few parts for my personal collection for a handful of change.

Re: LotR. I don't think Target has a slot for Helms Deep in the newest reset. I'll have to double check, but I'm almost certain its not there. Of course neither was the MF Castle, and now it's back.

Pitfall69

^I only managed to get my hands on one. Thats's it. It caught a lot of people by surprise. Like I said before, Zombies are the rage. Question is when this zombie craze is going to die down? The Walking Dead series is all the rage it seems,but how long will this series last?

Pitfall69

^I know this is crazy, but Lego needs to make more Zombies minifigures, or at least another one in the CMF series.

Thanos75

I see the show lasting atleast two more seasons. The comic is on issue #106...and show is on its third season and in comic terms only on around issues 19-24. I made a nice chunk of change selling some original Walking Dead comic book art I bought before the show. Issue #1 is going between $1200 and $1600 range....Dont forget that Brad Pit is in World War Z this summer so I think we have atleast two more years of zombies being cool.

lulwut

Seriously, what is up with The Zombies set? I never saw this set once on the shelves.

TLG is starting to produce more sets than retail stores can carry. I've noticed the big retail stores have started phasing out sets that have been only out for 6 months.

Pitfall69

^The Zombies is an anomaly. I don't think TLG saw this coming either.

kwkw

^ Does that mean they might bring the Zombies set back?? I mean it was only out a few months, so conventional wisdom says for them to bring it back next Halloween but if not then that's good for me cause I'll just sell my sealed set for $100 plus then buy the zombie figs off bricklink for a total of like $20 lol :)

Bumblepants

The Lone Ranger sets will hinge on the popularity of the film. If it is a dud like Speed Racer or Prince of Persia, the sets will languish as well. If the film rakes in the money the toy sales will follow. I wonder though, with Tonto and Lone Ranger minifigs in practically every set, how much that will hurt the resell value. So often these days it is the rare minifigs that drive the aftermarket. The train will probably be a stud regardless of what happens though.

Dougout

I don't see it coming back, TLG could easily put out a new Zombie themed set with new minifigs though.

People never get bored with zombies. Each year there seems to be a new movie about them and the depictions of them get more creative with every film. Walking Dead does a great job at showing how a classic zombie should look and act. Stray too far from this normal image of what a zombie is and it doesn't appease the fans enough. There are tons of variations of zombies, but artists and writers almost always return to that idea of a slow walking, dull witted, decaying corpse because its a winning formula.

Resident Evil spawned its whole series off of the fear and love of the zombie almost two decades ago and has since created the most successful movie franchise based on a video game along with an absurd amount of cash for the owners up at Capcom. The games are getting dull simply for the fact that they strayed from the formula, but they sell extraordinarily well still solely because of the love of the zombie.

I don't see the popularity of zombies dying this decade, if ever. New age technologies and things like biological warfare have allowed the imaginations of fiction writers to create the idea that a zombie outbreak could be an any day occurrence. Scary to some people, but most people I know enjoy the thought of zombies or maybe even shooting zombies. I think this ability to scare us yet also make us happy is powerful. We love it, just look at roller coasters and how many crowds gather around them.

TLG definitely needs to take note of how well the zombies set is doing right now, there is a huge potential market there. Sure wish I had the chance to buy the small alcove I came across at my local Target again.

jockosjungle

I think the Lone Ranger will do OK regardless of the film, it is cowboys after all. Have to admit when I first saw the sets I didn't even realise it was from a film and wanted to get them

CCC

Dougout said:

I don't see it coming back, TLG could easily put out a new Zombie themed set with new minifigs though.

TLG definitely needs to take note of how well the zombies set is doing right now, there is a huge potential market there. Sure wish I had the chance to buy the small alcove I came across at my local Target again.

I also bought one, although just one. Almost by mistake. I was in the US, and wanted something to build so just picked it up at $40 as it was a good price compared to UK. I knew I couldn't take the box home, so that was binned straight way. I also sold the minifigs when I got home (about $30 for the bride and groom together) as I thought I'd be able to buy the whole set again later. That was probably a mistake, although I did get the top end price for them.

It would be good for them to bring out a zombie battle pack - maybe four different torsos and legs, that would give 16 possibilities for different zombies to be built, even if they all have the same head print. They fit into many different scenes and are also popular with slightly older kids that might be starting to look elsewhere for their toys. I just hope they all have light grey hands though. I guess they think they have done it - with the halloween set including the witch and mummy too. But more variation would be good.

legoprods

But cowboy themes may only appeal to a reduced number of people. I don't thing many people in Europe or Asia are appealed much by it.

BuriedinBricks

I went ahead and sold my one Zombies set. It may go up more, but a $75 profit (net) after less than two months is perfectly fine with me.

The set was not as rare around here. I saw plenty on shelves until the start of December. They all went away though when Target had it on sale for $30 and then you could knock another $5 off with a coupon.

jockosjungle

@legoprods Cowboys and Indians was a key part of my childhood in the UK, I think they'll do OK

FatMatt

In regards to the Lone Ranger doing well outside of the US: Just from selling experience, there is a big demand for American culture especially in Asia(namely Japan and South Korea). I have sold many bulk lots of sets to some sellers in Japan who own toy businesses. Sets like Toy Story that are slow movers here get bought by them at our market price, so they are obviously getting marked up over there. Same is the case with some other themes. So, we are not the only country who enjoy Americana, and the fact that it is Disney driven will help that.

whatsinaname

Any insights on the VW van? It is on my to-buy list but I have a backlog to complete. Can I afford to wait a couple of months or so before I buy it?

tom4086

I've reserved the last Droid Escape #9490 at my nearest Argos today and it's now disappeared from their catalog, could this be an indication its due to EOL?

Shpadoinkle

For what it's worth the Orc Forge is extremely rare in the target stores within a 30 mile radius of where I live. I found my first one in months today (and this was at the only target that still had a sticker for it on the shelf.) For anyone that wants a "complete set" of LOTR sets this will be a must, especially for that white hand minifig. I have a good feeling about this one.

wagnerml2

The Non Star Wars or HP licensed sets are a crap-shoot. I think that the Lone Ranger could end up like PoP at the end of the day. PoP at least had some rarer pieces and colors going for it. I STILL find PoP sets in the odd TRU waiting to be given a good home. We live in a society (At least in the US) where the attention span is very short. Lone Ranger will be hot for a few weeks and then the interst in the movie will pass. What happens to the sets at that point, cowboys or no cowboys, will be interesting to watch.

rchadd

whatsinaname said:

Any insights on the VW van? It is on my to-buy list but I have a backlog to complete. Can I afford to wait a couple of months or so before I buy it?

Its a great model and fun to build.

rchadd

jockosjungle said:

@legoprods Cowboys and Indians was a key part of my childhood in the UK, I think they'll do OK

Lego should make a "Champion the Wonder Horse"! :)

(showing my age)

CCC

^ Only if it comes with a sound brick for the theme tune.

madforLEGO

rchadd said:

whatsinaname said:

Any insights on the VW van? It is on my to-buy list but I have a backlog to complete. Can I afford to wait a couple of months or so before I buy it?

Its a great model and fun to build.

I would say that it probably will be out at least until end of the year..
That being said, who knows what LEGO is thinking these days and you may just want to get it if you want one for yourself.
If you are in the US, check Amazon for them and pounce when it hits 99.99

Pacific493

tom4086 said:

I've reserved the last Droid Escape #9490 at my nearest Argos today and it's now disappeared from their catalog, could this be an indication its due to EOL?

Doubtful...it came out last year this time and would have gone to "Sold Out" status on [email protected] within the last month if it were going EOL this time of year.