Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Basta

mathew said:

I am potentially wrong about DA. I had said that it would be a slow mover and while it hasn't skyrocketed it does appear to be a solid triple. Funny enough there is a "like new" that has been sitting in Amazon's Warehouse for about $200 for a few days now.

Funny about DA, seems to be gone from every where in the US & UK, unless you are getting it on the secondary market. Target Australia, one of our largest department stores has it online only at $179 ($100 below our RRP) has been at this price for 3 days and still available. Obviously wasn't a big mover for them at $279.

trenty1990

Does any one think the lightning dragon 2521 will be good investment now.it is out of production? I found it in a shop for £30?

gmpirate

^ probably the same people that thought MF 10179 was a good investment. Very suspect.

Buzzsaw

I have been reading this thread for a while.
And based upon my experience with trading in games. I would say that it does not matter which particular set, theme, or type of set (large or small) you buy. You need to be selling something which someone wants, and no-one else is selling. I.e find an un-exploited niche in the market, and fill it.

Oh, and buying cheap, and always selling for a profit helps...

Billybrown

Bandit said:

FollowsClosely said:

I would add that "expert" is a strange description for flipping LEGO. I would say that there are no experts when it comes to flipping the blocks.

I respectfully disagree. Between knowing what to buy, when to buy, where to buy, how to buy, how much to buy, how to sell, where to sell, and when to sell, there are certainly people who know what they're doing more than others, and are what I would consider experts, myself included.

Go over to the forum cesspool on brickpicker sometime if you want to see the epitome of naive, novice investors. It's embarrassing over there...

I still wouldnt regard myself as an expert, but only because Im quite critical. I set myself targets. At present I am 3/4 of way in making Lego a living for me financially. But I wont class myself as an expert until its a complete living for me me, which I believe is possible. I bought 20+ GE's, which wont EOL until at least 2014 so that was a bad business decision for me despite paying £100 per set for them as it ties up funds, so Ive a long way to go personally. I would say around 80% of my stock though has already EOL/ EOL this year, so its not a bad effort I suppose as I only started collecting in 2010.

JamesJT

How much per month would you have to make before you'd consider giving up your real job?

Basta

JamesJT said:

How much per month would you have to make before you'd consider giving up your real job?

It depends on circumstances really, For me I would have to have already made a lot more money then my current job pays, 2 x's maybe even more over a year or two before I would think about quiting my job. Sure if I had a dead end job that I didn't like, that payed lousy and had no security then the amount would be a lot less, maybe id even take a pay cut.

JamesJT

Agreed, depends on circumstances. Dumb question from me!

Thanos75

For me it would be the security thing. Unless you actually work for LEGO I have never heard of anyone getting a 401k or health benifits from selling LEGO.

Billybrown

JamesJT said:

How much per month would you have to make before you'd consider giving up your real job?

Im still a student. I still intend on becoming a Physio not long to go now, I wouldnt give up that as a career for any money as thats what Ive always wanted and Ive put in a lot of work for it. However I project in 2 years time I will be making as much money from Selling Lego as I would as a band 5 Physio which sounds a bit insane. If it had been any other job though Id quit and do Lego if I were to earn £15,000 per year after tax. However no other job appeals to me for example I wouldnt work in a supermarket for £50 an hour.

Pitfall69

Forgive me for my ignorance, but what is a band 5 physio?

Billybrown

Pitfall69 said:

Forgive me for my ignorance, but what is a band 5 physio?

Basically when a Physiotherapist qualifies they can either work private or in the NHS (or both if they are greedy!). Band 5 is the starting payscale for a newly qualified Physio working within the NHS and they would be known as a junior when starting at band 5.

monkeyhanger

@trenty: If you can get lightning dragons for £30 (TK Maxx?), then you'll make something off them. I had 17 (bought at £25 each) and got shot quickly at £60 a piece to US customers.

hoyatables

For the ignoramuses across the pond, what is a physio? Physical therapist? A doctor? (I recognize google would give me an answer but I am too lazy :) ).

Billybrown

hoyatables said:

For the ignoramuses across the pond, what is a physio? Physical therapist? A doctor? (I recognize google would give me an answer but I am too lazy :) ).

Physiotherapist (Physio) is a protected title in the UK. Over the pond they are known as Physical Therapist.

Pitfall69

Billybrown said:

hoyatables said:

For the ignoramuses across the pond, what is a physio? Physical therapist? A doctor? (I recognize google would give me an answer but I am too lazy :) ).

Physiotherapist (Physio) is a protected title in the UK. Over the pond they are known as Physical Therapist.

Protected? Are you guys endangered :)

TheLoneTensor

What's the latest pulse on Minecraft retiring or producing again? I saw 5 in TRU for $45 each but passed. I'll probably kick myself for it in a couple years, but the up/down on the set is kinda annoying.

Renny

It's popping up in very limited quantities about once a week it seems but they sell out almost instantly. Average selling price is currently $50-$60. Not worth selling right now but that can change at any time (just like before). I'm currently holding onto my stock as I'm 90% positive it will hit the $100 mark again sometime this year.

prevere

Thanos75 said:

For me it would be the security thing. Unless you actually work for LEGO I have never heard of anyone getting a 401k or health benifits from selling LEGO.

eBay does offer "health insurance solutions" to Powersellers in the States.

Pitfall69

^Since this is pretty much a reseller thread and some people may or may not make a living selling Lego, I wanted to add that there are many benefits to owning your own business and also benefits that you miss out on by not working for someone else or a company/corporation.

Health benefits and steady pay are two benefits you don't have working for yourself here in the US.

Everyones situation is different. I'm sure health benefits are not a concern to people in countries that have "free" health care. In the US, daycare for your children can run up to $400 a week for 1 child. It might make more sense for someone to stay home and care for their children and sell Lego than to pay daycare and work 40 hours a week.

Yellowcastle

^ Now if I can just get my wife to sell LEGO, I'm all set. ;o)

Pitfall69

^Right now I'm just all set(s) :)

Billybrown

Pitfall69 said:

^Since this is pretty much a reseller thread and some people may or may not make a living selling Lego, I wanted to add that there are many benefits to owning your own business and also benefits that you miss out on by not working for someone else or a company/corporation.

Health benefits and steady pay are two benefits you don't have working for yourself here in the US.

Everyones situation is different. I'm sure health benefits are not a concern to people in countries that have "free" health care. In the US, daycare for your children can run up to $400 a week for 1 child. It might make more sense for someone to stay home and care for their children and sell Lego than to pay daycare and work 40 hours a week.

I think thats why we are lucky in the UK, the offer of free health care is something we take for granted. I nearly died of Malaria after visiting Africa and the standard of care was outstanding and thats what I want to be a part of when Ive got my degree. The government have cut back £15 billion in the NHS yet they just get on with the job as usual. The NHS is one of the only things that makes me proud of the UK.

The other side of the coin is the comfort of building and buying and selling Lego from home in my own time, while looking after a newborn, while the missus goes back to work as a Nurse. (If that can work!).

Oh and to clarify....the 'protected title bit' just means that a sports therapist cant call themselves a Physio/Physiotherapist or use the word Physical. Physios can get bitchy about that kind of thing! Im currently a sports therapist so when my studies are over with people can call me what they want, as long as they are nice about it :-)

JamesJT

Yellowcastle said:

^ Now if I can just get my wife to sell LEGO, I'm all set. ;o)

Out of the blue my wife bought 9 DA from tesco last year at £88 each. I could not have been more proud! Now if I can just get the kids to clean and count the old sets...

Pitfall69

^That is basically why I posted what I did. Everyone's situation is different and what one person does may not work for another. This translates all the way to buying and selling Lego. This is another reason why I like this thread because it educates me.

Billybrown

My lass doesnt really agree with me selling Lego to be fair, so its difficult for me to get her involved more. I would have been chuffed to bits if she had got 9 DA's for £88 each! Would have paid for a meal out ;-) Im hoping the future little one with be more interested so that he/she can do the buying and selling Lego for when Im doing Physio work! Seriously though I wouldnt force that on anyone, we all have our own ideas. Ive told the missus that Im aiming for 100 Death Stars by the time its discontinued and she nearly threw up. Maybe thats because of her pregnancy though :-)

JamesJT

^paid for a meal - I wish! she quickly worked out how much the deal was worth and upgraded her car.

100 DS before it retires - buying 2 per year should do it.

Billybrown

JamesJT said:

^paid for a meal - I wish! she quickly worked out how much the deal was worth and upgraded her car.

You have competition by the sounds of it :-)

prevere

I pay my 7-year-old for helping me sort parts that go to finishing sets for the "biz". She signs a timecard and needs to give me 2 weeks notice if she wants to stop. :)

FollowsClosely

prevere said:

I pay my 7-year-old for helping me sort parts that go to finishing sets for the "biz". She signs a timecard and needs to give me 2 weeks notice if she wants to stop. :)

My kids can keep 25% of the profits for any set that they sort our from bulk lots. Another 25% goes into the college fund, the final 50% goes to buying more blocks. They have slowed down as of late, but it was fun while it was in full swing.

wagnerml2

My 9 year old knows that once we clear a certain percentage in a bulk lot that he gets to keep sets for himself. He got himself a #7676 in a lot we bought recently for resale.

rchadd

Would I be right in thinking that #10213 is "a bit more rarer" than its replacement #10231 ?

I prefer the look of #10213 better anyway.

prevere

Craigslist comment.

Lego has been pretty much dead on my local city site. Each year I see less and less "bulk bins". To be expected I guess. It is a bummer.

Lately, I keep seeing Lego Minecraft sets available. At first it was $90, then $75 and now $55. I chuckle every time I see them reduced.

mathew

prevere said:

Lately, I keep seeing Lego Minecraft sets available. At first it was $90, then $75 and now $55. I chuckle every time I see them reduced.

No kidding. And a lot of the so called experts on this forum were saying that Lego could sell a million of them if they wanted to. Those same people are strangely silent nowadays.

wagnerml2

A million of them at RRP...I think that is a possibiliy. Not at 2-3x RRP.

cloaked7

^ Yup, I agree. I don't think anyone said a million at $80+ each. I think the set will resell well again when it isn't available and/or EOL's.

Will be interesting to see if LEGO keeps selling MC when they begin selling the BTTF set. I think not, but who knows? And, if not it will be very interesting next Christmas, because I think the MC game will be just as popular then.

mathew

wagnerml2 said:

A million of them at RRP...I think that is a possibiliy. Not at 2-3x RRP.

Possibly before Christmas. I wouldn't be surprised if resellers are the ones still driving most of the sales.

Renny

I'm just stockpiling mine until the inevitable price spike again. This set may not be the instant gold mine it once was but that doesn't take away from it's long term value. I still strongly believe this will climb back to at least $100 at some point this year. Problem is acquiring them at retail when they come in stock. You blink and they are gone.

mathew

I don't see Lego discontinuing Minecraft. It's insanely profitable for them. I think they might be purposely keeping supply low to keep demand high. It worked for the original Wii. If anything they should bump the price to $50. That would probably level out the playing field for resellers and legitimate fans.

Renny

^That might help but even at $44.95 they are being snapped up in an instant at Toys R Us when they get them in stock.

wagnerml2

Minecraft may be an interesting annomoly in the reselling formula whereby a proven re-sale record drives the cost of the set at RRP, rather than speculation. The set is relatively affordable at RRP and had an almost instant 3-4x RRP return. This plus a limited print run, led to a crazy market before Christmas. If/when lego releases more at RRP, re-sellers may drive the bus again and buy them out, or others (like me) who would like a set or two, but refused to pay 3x RRP for one before Christmas may snap them up as well. Either way, it is unusual to have a track record for a set the has not yet been EOLed at such a high resale value. I would think that if TLG cared, they could ride this wave at RRP for a considerable time with Minecraft, definitely past whatever print run they had originally envisioned. It might severely depress the resale market, but I'm sure TLG could care less about that.

Pitfall69

mathew said:

prevere said:

Lately, I keep seeing Lego Minecraft sets available. At first it was $90, then $75 and now $55. I chuckle every time I see them reduced.

No kidding. And a lot of the so called experts on this forum were saying that Lego could sell a million of them if they wanted to. Those same people are strangely silent nowadays.

First, you taking what you Saud out if context. In peak holiday time it was mentioned that they could sell a million. Second, I'm sure he was just saying that to paint a picture that he could sell a lot of them. Haven't you heard the expression "I'm so hungry I could eat a horse"? Surely, one can't eat an entire horse.

People are silent and you and your comments give them every reason to be.

SiE

It's hardly surprising that prices have fallen for most sets, It's january, things will start to pick up end of feb start of march. I flipped all my minecraft nov / dec.

Pitfall69

SiE said:

It's hardly surprising that prices have fallen for most sets, It's january, things will start to pick up end of feb start of march. I flipped all my minecraft nov / dec.

I'm actually doing much better selling loose bulk lots and minifigures. It is the time of year for sure.

Pitfall69

^^*Saud?? Love my auto correct :)

Pitfall69

I wish I could blame everything on auto correct. Like the last intimate text message I sent to my cousin that was meant for my wife :0. Who hasn't done that?

CCC

mathew said:

No kidding. And a lot of the so called experts on this forum were saying that Lego could sell a million of them if they wanted to. Those same people are strangely silent nowadays.

It's possible to sell christmas trees before christmas, sales plummet afterwards. It's possible to sell pumpkins before halloween, sales plummet afterwards. The hype over Minecraft was a lot to do with it being a desirable Christmas gift. I doubt very many of the people buying them before Christmas were buying it for themselves. It was one of the must-have items for kids or grandkids last Christmas. Most sensible resellers got shot of their stock before Christmas.

I'm no volume reseller - I sold only four in the UK (bought in batches mainly to get the free Christmas set from lego) on ebay. But the number of offers I received when I put them on ebay, let alone bids over RRP, I reckon I could have sold 50 and made a profit on each one just from people that contacted me or bid. I didn't as I have no interest in packing them all or holding that amount as investment - nor did I have the foresight to try to order that many on black friday (when it was worth doing with the free set and 10% off). But I can understand why the volume resellers said they could sell a million if they had been able to get hold of them.

Now the story is different. People are starting to dump it - on ebay UK you can usually get it for about RRP. I reckon most of the big resellers could have shifted 1000s if not 1000000s at a decent profit, infrastructure and supplies to post them permitting, before Christmas. Now, of course it is harder, as much of the original market (parents and grandparents buying for kids) has fallen through.

mathew

Renny said:

^That might help but even at $44.95 they are being snapped up in an instant at Toys R Us when they get them in stock.

But doesn't TRU allow up to five to be purchased at a time? That would partially explain why they sell out so fast.

mathew

Pitfall69 said:

People are silent and you and your comments give them every reason to be.

I like you Pit. But my playing devil's advocate is hardly reason someone might quit posting. I think reselling is a lot like horse betting which is why we have such diverse and conflicting personalities on this forum. Certain people might just be bored with the races and are wanting to cash out their chips for a different sport.

FollowsClosely

Pitfall69 said:

I wish I could blame everything on auto correct. Like the last intimate text message I sent to my cousin that was meant for my wife :0. Who hasn't done that?

I haven't.