Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

bee

^ There should be another thread about FB inventory and everyone posts how many they have and how long they've had it. Would be interesting....

flyingpig

bee said:

^ There should be another thread about FB inventory and everyone posts how many they have and how long they've had it. Would be interesting....

Wasn't that THIS thread?

bee

flyingpig said:

bee said:

^ There should be another thread about FB inventory and everyone posts how many they have and how long they've had it. Would be interesting....

Wasn't that THIS thread?

Haha. In that case: ONE for me. Had it for a week. Maybe I would have got more if apple stock didn't kick my butt

FollowsClosely

^ Setting up a poll on survey monkey would be the way to go.

flyingpig

No seriously, we had a bunch of FB inventory posts a few pages back in this thread. Or I am losing my mind....

Godspeed

absolut3 said:

Fire brigade is back down to 120

On Amazon? I'm seeing $150 still..

Thanos75

I'm seeing it at $150 also...with 65 left....hahaha...sorry couldnt resist

legoprods

Maybe it's only me because I have been following this thread a long time, but...

Am I the only one missing the "ol' experts" posts and thinking that there are just too many newbies (myself included) posting unuseful things on this thread right now?

prevere

^Yes. I have no problem with newbies. We were all there once. However...here are my gripes that show a trend I do not like.

A) Any posting that includes a "Request for Valuation" drives me crazy. Just go on eBay or BL and look stuff up.
B) Disappointment when something hasn't doubled in a week from EOL.

JamesJT

Could be the "ol' experts" got fed up of giving away painfully won years of experience only to create more competition for themselves.

Pitfall69

^No, because anything anyone says is speculation and not gospel.

Pitfall69

...I'm sure the "ol" experts have "struck out" on a few sets. Atlantis comes to mind. I'm sure people got sucked in and bought tons of this theme when it was heavily discounted.

Also, it seems that when the "ol" experts make a comment, they get hammered by the self righteous. It would make me soured and not want to post much anymore.

legoprods

Anyway, thing is, I miss LFT's comments, the guy whose avatar looks like plankton from sponge bob, and others' comments. I will shut up for a while.

JamesJT

Maybe if we are all quiet they will come back.

SiE

I struck out on toy story lego which fortunately i did not buy a lot of and it was below rrp and home one but again i got it below rrp so i got my money back on it.

The best results i have had are gc's and harry potter burrows both of which made nice amounts. Other sets that i have done well on are the atot and en.

Pitfall69

^I think the consensus is that everyone struck out on Home One. I only bought "one" for my "home" and that's it.

I didn't buy any Cars, Toy Story, Sponge Bob, Atlantis, PoP, Alien Conquest.

On the flip side, I didn't buy any Ninjago or Minecraft.

Well...I bought a bunch of Lloyd ZX and sold them for 3x RRP, but that was on a whim.

The question is: Is it better to miss out on something or buy a lot of something that you are stuck with and can't unload?

Pitfall69

legoprods said:

Anyway, thing is, I miss LFT's comments, the guy whose avatar looks like plankton from sponge bob, and others' comments. I will shut up for a while.

I think his name is @cloaked

I miss @LegoFanTexas comments too. He's very passionate about Lego and the business side of selling Lego. You don't have to agree with him, but you have to applaud his contributions to the Lego forum community. I surmise, he, as well as others, have gotten tired of the arguments and have soured.

cloaked7

^ Yup, cloaked is close. :-) I'm cloaked7. (who woulda thunk that 'cloaked' was already used) A big Spongebob fan. Long live Plankton! Being an adult Spongebob fan goes right along with being an AFOL. :-) I'm still a teenager in my mind. And, extremely popular and a celeb. :-) Man, that's scary!

Was out of town last week, so I didn't have opportunity to comment. Most days I read this thread, but only comment when something comes to mind. My mind is blank at the moment. Which is usually the case! Also, I'm not buying or selling LEGOS much right now. A slow month.

I appreciate that others find my comments helpful or entertaining. I'm by no means an expert about anything, much less LEGOS. But, as with everyone I have my opinion. That and my attitude are about the only things I control. My wife takes care of the rest. he he

cloaked7

OK, @Pitfall69 commented about Spongebob. Now I have to reply. Either that or upset Plankton. SB sets do well for resell. You just have to hold them about 1 year after retirement. Few things about a theme like SB, they don't make a lot of sets. And, most of the sets are relatively unique. Driver's Training School, Emergency Room, Rocket Ship. SB cartoons still air and SB stuff is everywhere, so a lot (A LOT) of 3-5 yr olds love SB. And grandparents or parents like nothing more than to get that SB set that their child wants. Hold most SB sets 1 yr after EOL and you'll double your $$. Also, it is relatively easy to get SB sets at a good BOGO discount.

prevere

LFT hasn't posted since the 24th. That's only two days. Am I missing something here? We all take breaks from the forum. That's a healthy thing to do!

Brickarmor

I'm all for reticence, especially since this last EOL season demonstrated that the rules have changed, no one is sure exactly how or for how long, but "speculation" is closer than ever to oneiromancy. Reselling is DIY, that should include research and self-education. This thread is best used as a sounding board: Hey I noticed xxxxx is OOS at such-and-such, anybody else, seen any restocks, in any catalogs, etc. Information is one thing, guidance another, and I think the two are being confused. Maersk, MMV, and SE were all EOLing, with acolytes and detractors for each, and do people really expect someone to just say "Buy that one!" If so they should reexamine last year's FBs. I know, I know, FB and DS are pincushions, but they prove that one always buys at one's own risk, guidance aside.

cloaked7

reticence? oneiromancy? Now I gotta get my dictionary out! :-)

samiam391

In response to the above posts (roughly 15 posts or so up) about whether Fire Brigade really might be actually going EOL because of a dwindling Amazon supply, I hereby give this following quote which comes from page 1 of this very own thread (2011):

the writing seems to be on the wall for Fire Brigade. TRU has pulled it off their site completely, my local LEGO store has been out for several weeks, and the manager told me they haven't been getting any in their weekly shipments, and no more are coming in next week either.

i don't expect it to last the season.

Basta

Well I'd did find it interesting that in the new 2013 Lego catalogue that was just realesed in Australia we have a page for Monster Fighters as well as Sponge Bob. As far as MF goes I thought they were going at the end of last year, I suppose it takes a while to sell all stock as it is still available at S@H but are we sure it is going?

I don't follow sponge bob, but it seems to have been around for a while now and the sets don't look new to me, is it a case of they don't sell enough so are still getting rid of original stock, or is it a long term theme, I don't see much stock of it but what I do see seems to stay on shelves for a long time.

Pitfall69

prevere said:

LFT hasn't posted since the 24th. That's only two days. Am I missing something here? We all take breaks from the forum. That's a healthy thing to do!

It's not so much that it has only been 2 days. It is the amount of posts and the content of those posts that are few and far between.

littlepuppi

Im a 'noob' and i like it here. People moan at lft, then they moan if he doesnt post. Some posts i like, some, not so interested ao skim over, people probably think the same about mine... Who cares... Can we all just get along and talk lego..

prevere

Museum break-in. Part of me thinks this will be a great aftermarket set because of it's uniqueness. The other part thinks that this will not. Thoughts?

legoprods

You know, I not only meant LFT, I just mentioned him because for me he is the... godfather :)

But I also mean others like MadforLego, Dorianssd (?), SiE, FatMatt! and many others...

As pitfall said, it's not that they didn't post recently, is the volume of posts/interest.

Since someone brought that stupid discussion and disclaimer thing...

Thanos75

I havent pulled the trigger on the Museum Heist yet. I like the set and I like the concept i just think the building is kind of generic.

BrickDancer

^^The Mods are pretty quiet too. Haven't heard much from Officer Yellow et al lately.

FollowsClosely

I would add that "expert" is a strange description for flipping LEGO. I would say that there are no experts when it comes to flipping the blocks.

Some are just more experienced than other and then there are some that are more heavily invested. Some have a few hundred, others a few thousand, and others a few tens of thousands, then there are the big time speculators.

Anyhow, if this thread is lacking the usually big time speculators I would suggest that it may be the time of year. The end of January till March or April is my down time for both selling and buying.

Bandit

Monster Fighters is EOLing this summer, like PoTC and HP did last year.

cloaked7

It's a small set, but what about #76000 Arctic Batman vs. Mr Freeze : Aquaman on Ice? (funny that they misspelled Arctic, it is spelled 'artic' on the box)

Will it do well when it EOL's? I think so. Only $20 (get it at a discount at some time?), but I think it may be the only LEGO set ever to have Batman in white. In spite of the fact that there will be a lot sold and bought, but I could see the set selling for a lot a few years after EOL. I'm not a super hero expert, but it seems like a the white Batman would have to eventually sell for a lot of $$.

hoyatables

That, and Aquaman, like Nightwing, will be a draw for the completists. I also think the Superman / Wonder Woman set will be desirable.

TheLoneTensor

Bandit said:

Monster Fighters is EOLing this summer, like PoTC and HP did last year.

Source? Or be this mere speculation matey?

Thanos75

I'm thinking #76005 Spider-man showdown will do really good. It has 5 minifigs all being really cool. Nova may end up being in the new Guardians of the Galaxy movie coming out....might be why the weird pairing of Nova with this set. The building is pretty good and it comes with one of the best baddies ever....Doctor Doom

Bandit

FollowsClosely said:

I would add that "expert" is a strange description for flipping LEGO. I would say that there are no experts when it comes to flipping the blocks.

I respectfully disagree. Between knowing what to buy, when to buy, where to buy, how to buy, how much to buy, how to sell, where to sell, and when to sell, there are certainly people who know what they're doing more than others, and are what I would consider experts, myself included.

Go over to the forum cesspool on brickpicker sometime if you want to see the epitome of naive, novice investors. It's embarrassing over there...

madforLEGO

I have been posting in threads.. but just trying to avoid starting messes. Which I probably do about 50% of the time, that and I have been messing with my old Colecovision again. But I am reading, and just trying to stay on topic and throw up anything I think people may be interested in :-)

As for the discussion of the Museum set, not sure how well it will do, it does look nice though. I think all of the new City police/tie-in games with the new WII Game are pretty nice with parts, like the one set with McCain's SUV that has a dark blue train windshield. But It seems like that dock side warehouse set seems to be doing well with the black Garage door.
I would also say to watch the new City Hospital as it is apparently a Walmart Exclusive, and we know how sometimes those do not hang around long (I have still yet to buy one)

Farmer_John

I tend to purchase a few of many different sets as opposed to many of a few different sets. And the sets I do purchase, I try to get at more than 10% off. Over the course of a particular set's life, there are always sales of more than 10%...often times more than 20%. When a set is released that I really like (such as #76000 mentioned above), I just pick up a few when there are decent sales. If there happens to be another sale later on, I may pick up a few more. I have never tried to pick up dozens of any set because for me it would make the hobby "too serious." I guess I like a good mix of sets to minimize the risk once I do start selling them.

Reviewing the current offerings, I think it is good to put yourself in the place of an 8-12 year-old boy. Boys have always loved the "good guy; bad guy" themes. The Super Heroes, SW, Ninjago, HP, and even PotC/pirates themes should do well. Themes like LotR, PoP, Toy Story and Cars either just aren't known to that age group or, if they are, are too "fluffy" for lack of a better word. As an adult, I actually like LotR, PoP and Toy Story (sorry, Cars is too fluffy for me too), but what I like isn't important where the after-market for kids is concerned.

Sets that adults seem to like more include modulars, cars (e.g., Volkswagen), ships, trains, large spaceships/shuttles, and airplanes (I really think the Sopwith camel will do great after EOL). I also think the Winter Village theme is great for adults and should do really well in the long-run.

On a side note, the Hobbit movies are going to be around for at least a couple more years... I have a hunch that sets from that theme will be going for some serious discounts before it's over. In my mind, only a few will do well once they are EOL'd such as the Smaug Dragon set (which I am definitely planning to get after it's released...at a 10%+ discount of course).

JMOs

gmpirate

The problem with the Super Hero sets is that they are very affordable. That and there are multiples of just about every character. 50% off and its worth taking the chance -- but how many can you really get at that? Less than that and you are weighing that against other more expensive bets.

Much of it also comes down to how much you have to invest and re-invest. When you get into a six figure plus inventory it gets tougher to organize. You only have so much time and so it makes sense to be more selective. This all comes from the perspective of running this as an actual business. A hobbyist may have other goals or objectives.

The only sets I really have interest in as investments are the Arkham Asylam, Batcave and Funhouse -- in that order. The Arkham is obvious, Batcave is iconic and the Funhouse is exclusive and been in short supply at times.

madforLEGO

Bandit said:

FollowsClosely said:

I would add that "expert" is a strange description for flipping LEGO. I would say that there are no experts when it comes to flipping the blocks.

I respectfully disagree. Between knowing what to buy, when to buy, where to buy, how to buy, how much to buy, how to sell, where to sell, and when to sell, there are certainly people who know what they're doing more than others, and are what I would consider experts, myself included.

Go over to the forum cesspool on brickpicker sometime if you want to see the epitome of naive, novice investors. It's embarrassing over there...

Unless @FollowsClosely is referring to everyone having their own system, which may works for some, but not all.

For example, some people swear by buying small sets in bulk and turning them for a small profit but if they have 100 of them then to them it is a good way to do things, same with those buying large sets and sitting on them to flip and make their money, the ones that have a 50% off clause (any set to purchase must be at least 50% off)when buying LEGO and do not deviate, then those that are actually 25-30% that consider that the way to go etc etc...
So many chefs.. ultimately you should not just listen to one person on this board, but listen to all and make up your own mind as to what you want to do, there is no magic answer, rather there are answers IMO.

madforLEGO

gmpirate said:

The problem with the Super Hero sets is that they are very affordable. That and there are multiples of just about every character. 50% off and its worth taking the chance -- but how many can you really get at that? Less than that and you are weighing that against other more expensive bets.

Much of it also comes down to how much you have to invest and re-invest. When you get into a six figure plus inventory it gets tougher to organize. You only have so much time and so it makes sense to be more selective. This all comes from the perspective of running this as an actual business. A hobbyist may have other goals or objectives.

The only sets I really have interest in as investments are the Arkham Asylam, Batcave and Funhouse -- in that order. The Arkham is obvious, Batcave is iconic and the Funhouse is exclusive and been in short supply at times.

Agreed.. I'm sure there are those that have stockpiled 50 Catwoman chases by now, which means expect prices to be about double after EOL if you are lucky, and then take forever to sell them due to everyone being at the same price point.
I just think that those who remember the first Arkham and batcave prices are going to cause a large supply out there, and again while there will be demand I think it will take forever to flip em...
I think the Funhouse will be a winner only due to which figures are in it IMO, though it will really depending how long they are out for.
I think that the '1st run' of the DC Super Heroes sets has to be nearing EOL only because the second line is out now, but that is just my opinion.

Pitfall69

I have said before, everyone has a system that works for them.

Basta

I agree that the success of the original Batman sets will intice more people into stocking up, one of the concerns with superhero sets is that comic based movies are really hot now and have been for a number of years. What happens if in the next few years we have all had enough and they stop making them. Intrest in the sets will most likely fade. I suppose that's a risk you take when holding on to sets for many years.

Pitfall69

^BTW, I love this particular thread. I love the conversations, I can do without most of the drama, but it is full of useful information and it let's me know what's going on across the pond.

madforLEGO

Yes, I use a Ouija board :-)

Thanos75

I use a dart board

Renny

I personally just target sets that I really would want in my own collection (if I bought every set mentioned in this thread I would be broke). I also will target sets that have limited availability/exclusivity like sets only available through Lego and Walmart or TRU. Mini figures heavily drive the value of most sets so finding a set that is the only way to obtain a certain figure is also a big plus. I also put a cap on how many of a certain set I will purchase (no more than 10). The only exception being the freaky Minecraft set.

I also just focus on a few themes. I would need a lot more time on my hands than I have if I was going to track every set being released and how they performed. Personally I wouldn't actually want to make a full time living on Lego as I feel it would take away from my enjoyment of it as a hobby.

Oh and unless it's for my own enjoyment I try to avoid buying Lego sets the first year they are available (unless there is a big sale) as they will end up spending a lot more time in storage "maturing".

mathew

What Renny said. First, buy what you like. Then if you have good instincts (not everybody does) let that guide you on what to purchase for reselling. For example I passed up a buttload of MF Werewolf sets at Walmart recently. They were $10 each. Many resellers would of gobbled those up. Cheap, easy to store, and a no brainer to double your profit on down the road, right? Well lo and behold a week later everyone is chopping the price on this set and guess what? It ain't moving. Eventually when it finally EOL's you'll possibly make a few bucks on it, but why bother tying up resources.

I am potentially wrong about DA. I had said that it would be a slow mover and while it hasn't skyrocketed it does appear to be a solid triple. Funny enough there is a "like new" that has been sitting in Amazon's Warehouse for about $200 for a few days now.

I tend to be overly conservative when it comes to reselling. I buy one set at a time. I bought one Minecraft, one The Mine, one QAR etc.
I honestly think I could of made quite a bit of money this last year if I started gobbling everything up like most resellers do. I just don't want to tie up my family's money in something that is kind of lucrative like Lego reselling. I also like to give little Timmy a shot at something cheap and good.

Yellowcastle

BrickDancer said:

^^The Mods are pretty quiet too. Haven't heard much from Officer Yellow et al lately.

Tis the season for having babies and working long hours. And at nearly 2 years old, the forum mostly moderates itself these days. ;o)