Please use our links: LEGO.com • Amazon
Brickset.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, the Amazon.com.ca, Inc. Associates Program and the Amazon EU Associates Programme, which are affiliate advertising programs designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.
As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.
On the topic of the magazine, I am disappointed that there were page after page of Ninjago. I realize it's mostly new stuff they are trying to introduce, but good grief! That series does not float my boat as they say.
I've seen too much evidence that LEGO pays attention to what the community is saying. On page 23 they say "Collect all of the minifigures", showing that they know collectors will go for all the Super Heroes minifigures. On page 36 they remind us that there are "6 New Brick Colors", probably reminding all the "MOCers" out there that they should buy boatloads of these sets to use the special colors... maybe it's just me.
I've been an AFOL for roughly 4-5 years now and I was originally purchasing smaller sets (<$30) to pass off as gifts. What I began to realize was that EOL'd sets appreciate over time. Upon closer analysis, I noticed that the larger sets seemed to get more "bang for the buck" as they say, so I started purchasing more expensive sets. While many (if not all) have appreciated in the after-market over time, certain sets have performed better. SW sets do well, and classic sets do very well (sets like Taj Mahal, TLG's 50th Town Plan, Eiffel Tower, etc.). Sets that are unexpectedly EOL'd perform well too. Ironically, sets that are EOL'd during year-end or BF sales are hoarded and it does take them longer to appreciate with AFOLs. I really think the Emerald Night and Imperial Flagship will be this year's winners, and will increase very well over the next few years. I also think that so many SW sets are now being sold that they will not perform as well as they used to in the after-market.
As a side note, I do not think that TLG worries a lot about after-market performance of sets unless it is to resurrect a set that was EOL'd and could have pent-up demand. Case in point is the Superhero sets. Batman sets were outrageously expensive in the after-market, and now they are making a comeback. It's nice for those of us looking for a more affordable option, but probably not too good for those hoarding older Batman sets.
The sets that appreciate the fastest are the ones that become unexpectedly popular after EOL (think Cafe Corner), are retired unexpectedly (think 1st gen Batman), or have a sufficiently high MSRP to limit the secondary market inventory available (think UCS Millenium Falcon). That being said, a lot of the traffic on this forum is a testament to the fact that people have gotten wise to the profit-making potential of EOL Lego sets, which will inevitably make it (and I would wager has already made it) more likely that there will be a plentiful supply of "can't miss investment" sets on the secondary market after EOL. For example, I wouldn't expect to see the same type of price appreciation for the UCS Death Star as the Millenium Falcon or Fire Brigade as Green Grocer or Cafe Corner...too many people are wise to this now for prices to rise as quickly as they have in the past.
I would understand for the last two, because released in 2010....but the mace windu's starfighter?
they are all sold out at [email protected]
they were all limited edition, right?
Cad Bane's Speeder would be more of a surprise since it was released later in 2010 and has not yet run a full two years, but the pattern of discounts offered on the set over the past few weeks would seem to suggest that it is EOL.
Mace Windu's Starfighter is a bit of a wild card. It had an odd release schedule, being available in Europe starting in 1/11, but not available in the U.S. until summer 2011. I'm not quite sure what the story is with this set, but I would not be surprised if it were one of those odd Lego sets that is only available for a few months.
well, on my way to local toy store to grab the mace windu fighter.
in France for example the mace windu is nowhere to be seen.
As to whether or not these discussions cause changes to that? I used to think no.. but I see far to many hoarders on here buying 20-30 of the sets going to be EOL, and that is just those that get on these boards to 'boast' what they have.
I imagine there are many resellers that are not on message boards doing the exact same thing because they saw infomercials on TV or books talking about how easy it is to make money on eBay...
Now, unless LEGO does something silly like re-do sets that are EOL (like exact copies released again) then the supply will eventually dwindle and prices will go up, but it will take longer and longer and perhaps with a shorter 'ceiling' on prices as part of the reason sets go up is because of demand, either because of nostalgia or price speculators.
For instance I believe when a LEGO MISB hits about 700+ dollars I do not think you are seeing people buying that set to open it, I see more people buying that set to hold for a higher price, once the speculation market is saturated then I think the ceiling has been hit, and make go up still, but at a trickle (700 is not a set number, but the number I believe people would pay for a set to open it... I doubt many people paying 900 dollars for a MISB Cafe Corner are going to open it)
But with more and more people getting this 'idea' to make money off of LEGO the more and more this will turn into the baseball card industry IMO.
We are all about Lego and will continue to purchase it. I just purchase it slowly throughout the year. I do agree that some things are going to have a harder time making money. I am a small seller, but I do have a room full of Lego to sell. I purchase everything on sale, but I am now seeing that everyone purchases alot on sale. Who knows what is going to happen, but I do find the whole topic interesting.
I think a lot of resellers will be dabbling in Lego the next 10 years, in and out, but this won't significantly impact those of us who just love the pureness of the brick.
Value is what keeps collectors purchasing expensive sets (or at least at 100-200% past MSRP).
Value is what keeps collectors from selling their collections. And even still you have a lot of moms and 15-year-olds dumping Lego, but they buy them back in their 20s or as parents, or yet again as grandparents.
Lego has a habit of becoming a lifetime hobby. Sportscards and other toys/collectibles fail miserably at this. Even with the increased speculation, Lego will never become like Upper Deck.
I bought a sealed box Cafe Corner to open and build, paid $850 delivered for it.
So it DOES happen...
I sold a 10030 sealed to a dentist for $1,300, she gave it to her 12 year old son to open and build.
So the supply does shrink, but slowly... Yes, many of these get traded back and forth, but they also get opened too, so the supply drops over time.
Although I am amazed that people are buying these to open to be honest (I mean it makes sense, it is a building toy) but still, to pay 850 dollars to open a Cafe Corner? More power to you :-)
I used to really collect Slot cars, and for a while most were going for decent money..
Then a bunch of warehouses in Asia mysteriously popped up with tons of old cars and that flooded the market, that combined with a dwindling market (most guys collecting slot cars either got their collections, or are getting old with no fresh collectors buying) really crushed the Slot car market IMO..
My point is it is also demand for that particular set or years of that set.
I have noticed that 80's sets (which I sell out in) are going for less and less.
I think it is because the people that grew up wioth those sets are already collecting and have those sets... but I question if there are enough younger people that are saying ' hey I want those LEGOs from the 80's' (although due to the cruddy late 90's LEGOs there are probably more than I think)
Now I think the Mods should have no issues, but I also notice many people just give up on trying to get the old mods due to money, and it appears to turn off some people from getting into the mods altogether (why, Im not sure as the Mods are pretty sweet).
So it also depends on the attitude for those sets as well, or if another set comes along that pretty much 'replaces' the old (See Maersk Sealand Freight ships for issues with price increases in the past or the Legends sets that came out)
I have some sealed falcons but when it comes time to build one I will just find a used one.
We all have things we splurge on (myself included) but the practical side of me just can't fathom it :P
But when a set is listed as 'complete' a lot of questions come up:
Is 'Complete' meaning that all the parts are there and proper 'type' and color? In other words a Market street with black railings instead of white is not a complete set (IMO, and the opinions of many buyers)
Are the parts lightly scratched? Or did the previous owner take em outside and scrape them against the pavement?
For all you know a kid with the measles was playing with it last, or lived in the house of a smoker, or had pets, etc...
Also not many people know about BL.. so if a set is missing parts, then a set is missing parts.. and I think another thread about the disgust of 39R1 Fb being opened for Christmas missing parts is a great show of this...
Also some people give them for gifts and many people would be thinking a gift is nicer if new sealed box and not used....
Now I do agree with you.. For me it was more sensible to buy a used 10022 car than open one of mine when building one, but again many people like to give a 'new sealed' box as gift especially...
Just my opinion... I'd rather pay a bit more for something "brand new" that I'd enjoy to build.
However, I see your point, because this hobby is like a weird mental disease, and I am already feeling like NOT opening my recent purchases of FB, IF, MMV, but since I do not intend to make this a business and re-sell them in the future, I also feel that it completely defeats the purpose of loving to build LEGO, when you get a brand new $150 set from a LEGO store and do not play with it.
But I've often found that the price differential is not so great that it's worth the bother of getting used rather than new. I bought Green Grocer last week new for about $370. Good used sets seem to go for about $300. The $70 difference is just not enough to justify the potential downside hassle of buying a used set.
Regarding the feeling of opening a brand new set... I get more of a kick from finding a used bargain and then lovingly restoring it. For example, it turned out that I had to put in another $100 or so on the Castle Giant Chess set as the previous owner had cannibalized it for some of the premium parts. I value it all the more for the work (which is actually play) I put into it.
Not saying that I prefer incomplete used sets. But the process of finding, assessing, acquiring, building and restoring is part of what collecting is all about.
And I do buy sets here and there to resell, but I've never even considered buying a set that's already retired in the hopes that it will appreciate further. I know some people have had success with this, but I'm not that invested in reselling to mess around with it.
Just my two cents.
I am very much a "deal" person, I love saving money and getting a "bargain". I will agree, there is nothing "dealish" about spending $850 for a Lego set with 2,000 parts to build, I could probably get the parts for half the price by Bricklinking them. But my time has value, and there is something about just opening the set, opening the bags, reading the real instruction manual, and making it part of the modular street.
Now I'll grant you, the average person would probably not do this, with limited funds, you could buy a lot of other Lego for $850... For those of us with the means however, why the heck not, you only live once.
I figure very few sets go below MSRP and most go up once they're EOL'd. Even the sets that are sold at 50% off through Wal-Mart sales well increase to MSRP in a short while. (One of the few exceptions to that rule that I have found is the Mid-scale Imperial Star Destroyer (8099), which retailed for $39.99 and is still selling for about $30 in the aftermarket. I purchased one of these for my daughter and she hated it because she said it does not hold together. That may be the reason why it still doesn't sell.)
The alternative is that I put my money in the bank for a whopping 0.2% annual return or in the stock market that may go bust at any moment. In short, what do I have to lose by trying to make money on a hobby I love?
Are all 3 Winter sets retiring ? I can still see the Bakery and Post office on the LEGO site but not the Toy Shop.
I saw some Winter Toy Shops 10199 here in Canada at retail (80+tax CAN), and yes we get gouged and wonder if I should pick them up ?