Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Tevans333

kim43235 said:

Shuttle Adventure (10213) is available at [email protected]
http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-Creator-Shuttle-Adventure-10213-/350700190228

I know this is a previous version of 10231. Do you think we can ask Lego for service pack to make it like 10231?

Anyone think this one wil rise as well as SE?

Pitfall69

^This is interesting. The first release of the Maersk Container Ship still sells better than the later releases. SE was released to fix a defect in SA?

Renny

nkx1 said:

^^Maybe your overall odds of being scammed once are greater when selling many sets, but the negative impact of the scam would be minimal. Conversely, if you were scammed selling one $2,500 set, the negative impact would be severe (even though the odds of being scammed on a single set might be lower)! As has been discussed on numerous other occasions, I think everyone has personal preferences on whether it's better to sell many sets for a small profit each, or a small number of sets for a large profit each.

I agree, everyone's situation is different, therefore their selling preferences are different. For me space is always an issue. I would love to buy another 20 big box sets like the Black Pearl or QAR but I would have to rent out a second storage unit to do so. That adds another $50 or so a month expense. I saw an opportunity to pick up one big set, store it in a space in my home for about 9 months and turn a big profit (big for me). If I had the space I would have gone the 10 - 20 set route and maybe made twice as much.

To each their own.

Tevans333

Pitfall69 said:

^This is interesting. The first release of the Maersk Container Ship still sells better than the later releases. SE was released to fix a defect in SA?

This is what has peaked my interst as well. SA was only on the market for 8 months, whereas SE was for 16. From an absolute volume perspective, there is probably quite a bit less of SA out there. Just not sure how the demand would translate though.

LegoFanTexas

dougts said:

but think about it this way. you could have spent that same $2,000 on some combination of DAs, BPs, QARs, etc, and made a lot more than $900

Yes, but with an increase in the amount of work, selling a single set is a lot easier. :)

madforLEGO

Tevans333 said:

kim43235 said:

Shuttle Adventure (10213) is available at [email protected]
http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-Creator-Shuttle-Adventure-10213-/350700190228

I know this is a previous version of 10231. Do you think we can ask Lego for service pack to make it like 10231?

Anyone think this one wil rise as well as SE?

I'm more curious about the fact that TRU somehow had 26 10213s in stock, considering they have been discontinued for at least a year...
Wonder if there will be 26 cancellation notices

lulwut

The $100-$130 sets are just at the right point for reselling, imo. They tend to EOL quicker, spike up the fastest, are on sale multiple of times, and more budget friendly to buyers. I have a ton of Hogwarts Castle, BP, QAR, Clone Turbo Tanks, and Dino HQ I'm waiting to dump this Christmas season. Also recently added Helm's Deep to that list.

I would rather a take a loss on a few of these than a larger set.

kim43235

Pitfall69 said:

^This is interesting. The first release of the Maersk Container Ship still sells better than the later releases. SE was released to fix a defect in SA?

I don't know the stroy about Maersk Container ship but SE replaced SA due to instability of the ship. So it might be safe to say SA is inferior to SE and this could impact value of SA. However, I don't think the difference would be huge though. SA currently is selling above RRP already. Also I'm going to try to contact Lego get replacements parts for SAs that I bought. Hopefully they say yes.

Legofanscott

Billybrown said:

trenty1990 said:

Do you think the tower bridge will be a good investment as it is predicted too end soon?

My first impressions were I wouldnt pay RRP, but that was only because I bought 18 of them for £118 each, however I am now thinking that RRP is still a good price based on price per piece, it does represent good value for money and I can see it selling for £500 2 years post EOL.

I did buy too early as they still have some way until EOL so they obviously take up a lot of space, but the low purchase price justifies it for me. I cant see it doing a Taj Mahal but it should be a nice investment.

Thats the thing though, who here was buying 18 Taj Mahals or eiffel towers? :D

Imo that set is a "too obvious" investment with how well those two above did after EOL

Pitfall69

^Yes, in terms of play value yes, but if you are a sealed box collector, probably not.

madforLEGO

lulwut said:

The $100-$130 sets are just at the right point for reselling, imo. They tend to EOL quicker, spike up the fastest, are on sale multiple of times, and more budget friendly to buyers. I have a ton of Hogwarts Castle, BP, QAR, Clone Turbo Tanks, and Dino HQ I'm waiting to dump this Christmas season. Also recently added Helm's Deep to that list.

I would rather a take a loss on a few of these than a larger set.

But that all depends on what people paid for those sets.
If they paid 100-130 for those sets then they are not making as much as they think, especially with eBay and paypal fees (if involved)
If they buy a set that is 150-200+ they are more likely to make their money on those. Less of those are found in B&M stores and just too expensive and paradoxically causes people to wait until they are done THEN start paying a lot more for them.
If they happen to get a bunch of 100 dollars on Clearance or sales or whatever, it is not bad BUT if they bought those in a B&M store then they are also rolling the dice those are not tampered with boxes where garbage is in them, which means they are writing off any profits from those.
Also, as you pointed out, they are more readily accessible for purchase for people budgets which means there will most likely be a ceiling for those prices.

I have yet to see one person saying oh man I cannot believe I bought a Taj Mahal, Effel Tower, Grand Carousel, or that large technic mobile crane for RRP and said they got hosed on that buy. Heck IS just went out and it hitting 340-350 on eBay (last I checked, maybe it has changed).
I think your other note is key as well.. You have a Ton of these..
So do many many others.

Again to each their own and I think much of it also depends on how much time you are willing to spend to sent out 100 packages instead of 50 for example.
I mean if you want to take your time to send out a ton of boxes for a 20 dollar profit per then you are entitled, but I think larger is less maintenance IMO and simply many people do not realize how much time this can consume.

Pitfall69

I'm thinking it would be nice to have someone post a list of what sets recently EOL'd and what they think might be the winners. Maybe throw in a speculation on what they might be going for come holiday season.

madforLEGO

Oh FB is now up to 145 on Amazon.com now.. gone are the 119 prices.. for now.

RichB

I would think the SA's defect will keep it from going as high in value as the SE will. Yes there are a lot less SA's than SE's, however the SE has no defects and therefore will go for more in the long run in my opinion. I've been watching the SE's on ebay the past couple weeks and they're selling for $160-170 on average with free shipping in auctions. Not bad for a set that was available a month or so ago for $99.99

Bandit

kim43235 said:

Pitfall69 said:

^This is interesting. The first release of the Maersk Container Ship still sells better than the later releases. SE was released to fix a defect in SA?

I don't know the stroy about Maersk Container ship but SE replaced SA due to instability of the ship. So it might be safe to say SA is inferior to SE and this could impact value of SA. However, I don't think the difference would be huge though. SA currently is selling above RRP already. Also I'm going to try to contact Lego get replacements parts for SAs that I bought. Hopefully they say yes.

Some would argue that 10213 is actually the superior model, so.... each to their own.

madforLEGO

I know one thing that it seems like 10231 right now is going for about 10 dollars more than 10213 so at this time it seems pretty even I think some people are not sure what to make of 10213 if they have no knowledge of the shuttle sets history

madforLEGO

Pitfall69 said:

I'm thinking it would be nice to have someone post a list of what sets recently EOL'd and what they think might be the winners. Maybe throw in a speculation on what they might be going for come holiday season.

Holiday Village Bakery is one.. Can only imagine what it will hit next year.. guessing at least $150 despite many people having them.
Technic Excavator 300-350
Maersk Train 200-225
IS 400-450

Pitfall69

^It is wishful thinking by some that the Bakery will be back next year, but I'm standing by my thinking that it is not.

C'Mon man. What kind of list is that? Lol :)

madforLEGO

I agree I think it is gone, right now I think I saw it hitting 100-120 on eBay right now..
I think it if it is truly gone I think it will spike, many people regard it as one of the nicest sets for the Holiday sets so far..
Also the Cottage is back to call to check for product availability on LEGO.com US as well as MMV

Oh also forgot to put Minecraft for when it sells out for the 65th time at [email protected] before Christmas, although now its status is back to 'sold out' not 'temporarily out of stock'

doriansdad

These are the price targets for my sets (I do not check sets I don't have so cannot comment on any others):

10219 Maersk Train - $280
10217 Diagon Alley - $290
4842 Hogwarts Castle - $248
10212 Imp Shuttle - $422
8043 Excavator - $306
4184 Black Pearl - $169

lulwut

madforLEGO said:

lulwut said:

But that all depends on what people paid for those sets.

I've been moving these types of sets in volume AND for 100% in profit (even after fees) faster than holding onto large sets to double. I can avoid long term risk and storage. In these sets, I trust.

Sort of wished I picked up some Maersk Train but that just flew under my radar.

avoiceoreason

^ okay, I have to ask. I have noticed your predictions previously and they always seem hyper specific. HC $248 (not $250), and IS $422 (not $425).

Do you have some sort of algorithm you use that spits out the values? Or are you assuming some sort of percentage gain that gets you those numbers?

Not being critical, it is just something I have wondered about from time-to0-time.

Billybrown

doriansdad said:

These are the price targets for my sets (I do not check sets I don't have so cannot comment on any others):

10219 Maersk Train - $280
10217 Diagon Alley - $290
4842 Hogwarts Castle - $248
10212 Imp Shuttle - $422
8043 Excavator - $306
4184 Black Pearl - $169

My price targets:

BP - £220
QAR - £230
Technic 8070 - £150
10217 - £400
4842 - £300
10212 - £500
8043 - £300
7868 - £70
2507 - £105
2505 - £150
10194 - £200
10193 - £145
7327 - £150
10219 - £250
10231 - £220 To name a few, havnt got time to go through them all.

doriansdad

I have my own model that is accurate for the short term on well bid sets.....not accurate for out of demand sets or those with a very small sample size of data to use. Price excludes shipping and handling, and is in USD. Use at your own risk...yada yada yada.

sidersdd

Bandit said:

kim43235 said:

Pitfall69 said:

^This is interesting. The first release of the Maersk Container Ship still sells better than the later releases. SE was released to fix a defect in SA?

I don't know the stroy about Maersk Container ship but SE replaced SA due to instability of the ship. So it might be safe to say SA is inferior to SE and this could impact value of SA. However, I don't think the difference would be huge though. SA currently is selling above RRP already. Also I'm going to try to contact Lego get replacements parts for SAs that I bought. Hopefully they say yes.

Some would argue that 10213 is actually the superior model, so.... each to their own.

Agreed. The #10213 is a better display model, and the #10231 is a better play set. The 10213 only has a "defect" if you want to play with it.

wagnerml2

If anyone is interested in any more #10193 MMV, I just ordered 3 from TLG store at Downtown DIsney in Orlando. They had some left and they were on sale for $79. Just an FYI. I had 5 or 6, but love the set and couldn't pass up 3 more.

kim43235

sidersdd said:

Bandit said:

kim43235 said:

Pitfall69 said:

^This is interesting. The first release of the Maersk Container Ship still sells better than the later releases. SE was released to fix a defect in SA?

I don't know the stroy about Maersk Container ship but SE replaced SA due to instability of the ship. So it might be safe to say SA is inferior to SE and this could impact value of SA. However, I don't think the difference would be huge though. SA currently is selling above RRP already. Also I'm going to try to contact Lego get replacements parts for SAs that I bought. Hopefully they say yes.

Some would argue that 10213 is actually the superior model, so.... each to their own.

Agreed. The #10213 is a better display model, and the #10231 is a better play set. The 10213 only has a "defect" if you want to play with it.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought 10231 has all pieces from 10213 plus extra pieces to make it secure. So with 10231 you can go either way. Wrong?

Bandit

^ no, 10231 is not just 10213 with the service pack. There are significant changes to the model. Someone did a great write up with pictures a while back detailing the differences. Maybe someone could pull it up...

JamesJT

he LEGO Direct team's answer to this question is on brickset:

Since its release in 2010, 10213 Shuttle Adventure has proven to be very popular! Although the model was designed for a 16+ target audience, our consumer call center has brought to our intention that many younger children have been building and playing with the model. As a result, the Direct team has decided to look at the model once more to see what changes could be made in order to provide a better build and play experience for a slightly younger target audience. 10231 Shuttle Expedition may look similar to Shuttle Adventure in many ways, however its build is very different and offers several advantages.

The fuel tank has been reinforced with supports to strengthen the assembly
The landing gear is strengthened to function better across many different floor types
The Cargo doors can now be more rigorously opened and closed
The entire build has been reworked to limit opportunities for misplacing elements
Astronauts now have wigs in addition to their helmets (1 male, 1 female). Face prints are also different.
The new set now has 1,230 elements
New Satellite can be securely positioned on the new mechanical arm 10231 Shuttle

prevere

DA at $350 by Xmas. It's already selling for $250 on eBay now during a weak sales period. Demand will exceed available supply.

bulletthelbuesky

As a bit of a change of pace, I've got a question for all the brick buying gurus in this thread. How long do you see the Haunted House sticking around for? Seeing as it belongs to a "one and done" line and, from what I've heard, being a "must have" from that line.

Just curious if I have a while to go, and can afford to get the Grand Emporium first.

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks!

Legofanscott

bulletthelbuesky said:

As a bit of a change of pace, I've got a question for all the brick buying gurus in this thread. How long do you see the Haunted House sticking around for? Seeing as it belongs to a "one and done" line and, from what I've heard, being a "must have" from that line.

Just curious if I have a while to go, and can afford to get the Grand Emporium first.

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks!

My bet is it will be here in 2014 and beyond, im sure you will still have plenty of time to get it:)

Pitfall69

^I will add that based on the length of time Fire Brigade has been out, you have plenty of time to get Grand Emporium as well.

prevere

Both are superb builds. Both will be around awhile. And by awhile I mean through 2014, maybe 2015. Just my opinion.

As for an investment, I think the HH is a bit special and will be a highly desired set for years to come, especially f acquired via BOGO sale, or some kind of 25% minimum discount.

Pitfall69

prevere said:

DA at $350 by Xmas. It's already selling for $250 on eBay now during a weak sales period. Demand will exceed available supply.

Like I said, it is anyone's guess, but I think Diagon Alley is performing the way Imperial Flagship did after EOL and I think there will be a major drop off in the coming months.

prevere

^Could be. I'm targeting Xmas 2014 for DA regardless. I think Imperial Flagship was impeded by BP and QAR. DA doesn't have an equal in that theme.

Farmer_John

sidersdd said:

Agreed. The #10213 is a better display model, and the #10231 is a better play set. The 10213 only has a "defect" if you want to play with it.

Is that the case? We purchased a SA when it was released and built it...one of my favorite all time lego sets to build. I had a few SA sets in boxes and ordered the repair kits for them from Lego back when the "flaw" was discovered. That said, I have never built the SE. Does the SA look better than the SE? I'm sure the SE is more stable; otherwise, why release the SE. But if the SA looks better than the SE, then the resale price will all depend on who's purchasing the set (adult or child). And since there are a lot less SAs out there, perhaps it will do better in the long-term.

Basta

prevere said:

^Could be. I'm targeting Xmas 2014 for DA regardless. I think Imperial Flagship was impeded by BP and QAR. DA doesn't have an equal in that theme.

I suppose that you could say MMV is similar to DA, but it is EOL as well. I also think that Harry Potter has a more dedicated and longer lasting fan base then POTC, giving DA a better out look as far as secondary market value.

doriansdad

Oops forgot about 10193...I have had these sitting for 18 months now :(

$199 by xmas is my target.

Bandit

Pitfall69 said:

prevere said:

DA at $350 by Xmas. It's already selling for $250 on eBay now during a weak sales period. Demand will exceed available supply.

Like I said, it is anyone's guess, but I think Diagon Alley is performing the way Imperial Flagship did after EOL and I think there will be a major drop off in the coming months.

The problem with that thinking, is that the IF doesn't have 500 million massively popular (yes, still!) books in print and 8 of the highest grossing movies of all time chronicling its adventures.

madforLEGO

prevere said:

Both are superb builds. Both will be around awhile. And by awhile I mean through 2014, maybe 2015. Just my opinion.

As for an investment, I think the HH is a bit special and will be a highly desired set for years to come, especially f acquired via BOGO sale, or some kind of 25% minimum discount.

Keep an eye on Amazon.com (US) for HH, it is listed as sold by Amazon

Bandit

Farmer_John said:

sidersdd said:

Agreed. The #10213 is a better display model, and the #10231 is a better play set. The 10213 only has a "defect" if you want to play with it.

Is that the case? We purchased a SA when it was released and built it...one of my favorite all time lego sets to build. I had a few SA sets in boxes and ordered the repair kits for them from Lego back when the "flaw" was discovered. That said, I have never built the SE. Does the SA look better than the SE? I'm sure the SE is more stable; otherwise, why release the SE. But if the SA looks better than the SE, then the resale price will all depend on who's purchasing the set (adult or child). And since there are a lot less SAs out there, perhaps it will do better in the long-term.

The main differences are the ugly supports beams on the fuel tank that hold the boosters in place, and the landing gears that are visible through the tops of the wings, rather than hidden like before, like they should be.

madforLEGO

Bandit said:

Pitfall69 said:

prevere said:

DA at $350 by Xmas. It's already selling for $250 on eBay now during a weak sales period. Demand will exceed available supply.

Like I said, it is anyone's guess, but I think Diagon Alley is performing the way Imperial Flagship did after EOL and I think there will be a major drop off in the coming months.

The problem with that thinking, is that the IF doesn't have 500 million massively popular (yes, still!) books in print and 8 of the highest grossing movies of all time chronicling its adventures.

I think people put too much stock into the books IMO.
There are no movies out for HP now, and judging by how the LEGO sets did in the first run a few years ago when there was no movie out at that time, Id say it may or may not go up to 350, I'm guessing it may but not as fast as if another Potter movie is released IMO. Im guessing about 300...maybe, but I have a few I would not mind if they go up

Pitfall69

^My thinking is, if Harry Potter was THAT popular, wouldn't Lego continue to make sets? Don't get me wrong, Harry Potter is extremely popular...more popular than Star Wars? I don't think so.

I have a few myself. It's a win win situation for me if they exceed $350 by Christmas.

JP3804

.

Legofanscott

Regarding HH, im sure a few years after that set retires there will be plenty of kids/teenagers who missed out on it wanting one, i have a feeling it will have quite a long shelf life however i still think it will be a good investment long term.

HH and orthanc(if it turns out to be as good as i imagine it will be), will be two of the most impressive sets of recent times.

Im sure people will look back at 2013- 2015 in the distant future as being a great period for Lego:)

mathew

doriansdad said:

Oops forgot about 10193...I have had these sitting for 18 months now :(

$199 by xmas is my target.

You realize that everyone and their grandmother will be offloading this set this Christmas? 10193 hasn't risen appreciably like DA either. It will be a couple of years...

doriansdad

mathew said:

You realize that everyone and their grandmother will be offloading this set this Christmas? 10193 hasn't risen appreciably like DA either. It will be a couple of years...

I hear that every year with every set I have ever resold. I stand by my forecast.

sidersdd

Bandit said:

Farmer_John said:

sidersdd said:

Agreed. The #10213 is a better display model, and the #10231 is a better play set. The 10213 only has a "defect" if you want to play with it.

Is that the case? We purchased a SA when it was released and built it...one of my favorite all time lego sets to build. I had a few SA sets in boxes and ordered the repair kits for them from Lego back when the "flaw" was discovered. That said, I have never built the SE. Does the SA look better than the SE? I'm sure the SE is more stable; otherwise, why release the SE. But if the SA looks better than the SE, then the resale price will all depend on who's purchasing the set (adult or child). And since there are a lot less SAs out there, perhaps it will do better in the long-term.

The main differences are the ugly supports beams on the fuel tank that hold the boosters in place, and the landing gears that are visible through the tops of the wings, rather than hidden like before, like they should be.

Right. Here are some comparisons. It's not a huge difference, but I do think the 10213 looks better. I'll probably hide the wheels completely when I build mine.

10213:




10231:

mathew

^ Couldn't one conceivably remove the technic support beams from the side of the fuel rockets of 10231? Otherwise for me the landing gear doesn't look all that much better on 10213 because the wheels still protrude.