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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549
    edited January 2013
    prevere said:

    I don't like comparing categories like retail exclusive sets. This is in reply to the Orc Forge vs. Zombies comments.

    If they aren't in the same theme, it's really hard to judge. I think you have to judge them individually. When you start saying, "well, maybe it will produce like Zombies did", that's where you'll get into trouble.

    Not only that, but Zombies went pretty quick in the UK / Europe too. Whereas Orc Forge (not exclusive here) has been sold at very heavy discounts. So there is cheaply bought stock which could be imported into the US. Not so for The Zombies.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    TRU has AC's Mothership on the shelf for $80. Boy, what a deal. :(
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    Pitfall69 said:

    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Speaking of which...What's the ceiling on the Carousel? Does anyone have some still stock or have sold one recently?

    I sold one outside of ebay for 700 before xmas. Inside your looking at 800. Of course thats for a sealed set. Used can be found for a lot less (450-550)
    $700-800 USD or £'s. Completed listings are showing the Carousel being sold at around $1,100-1,300 and new listings as high as $1,800+

    £ sorry I always forget to mention that. I have another listed on eBay at the moment for £850 and they seem to be going up and up. I am tempted to take it off and wait another 6-12 months.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    CCC said:



    Not only that, but Zombies went pretty quick in the UK / Europe too. Whereas Orc Forge (not exclusive here) has been sold at very heavy discounts. So there is cheaply bought stock which could be imported into the US. Not so for The Zombies.

    Yes, Orc Forge is a bit more widely available in Europe. Though here in Hungary not much, it's basically the same. Anyhow the Orc Forge has a lot less going for it. Its main selling points for AFOLs are the helmets and shields with the white hand print. That's quite thin compared to two exclusive zombies.

    Unfortunately Zombies had a very limited availability over here but luckily I bought 8 of it right when it came out at about 10-15% below local RRP. That was some good foresight.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Cork, IrelandMember Posts: 950
    Anyone here ever Bricklink the Carousel? Has it many rare parts?
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    ^The Carousel has at least one part that sells for triple digits. I'll try to dig it up...
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 441
    edited January 2013
    I remember the Orc Forge at 28€ not too long ago in amazon.co.uk

    I really liked those for parting out!

    Great one down there @Roxio!
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,344
    legoprods said:

    I remember the Orc Forge at 28€ not too long ago in amazon.co.uk

    I really liked those for parting out!

    I remember it at £16 from Tesco, I cleaned up

    legoprods
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Quick scan of Carousel, the cloth top, sound brick, and stickers together will run you well over $100. I was thinking there were others. But.
    Steve_J_OM
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    I still haven't even bought my personal copy of Orc Forge. Over here it costs about € 48-50 which I find way too much. In fact in December I caved in and ordered it for € 42 but my order got cancelled as that webshop just ran out of stock on it.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited January 2013
    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Speaking of which...What's the ceiling on the Carousel? Does anyone have some still stock or have sold one recently?

    I sold one outside of ebay for 700 before xmas. Inside your looking at 800. Of course thats for a sealed set. Used can be found for a lot less (450-550)
    $700-800 USD or £'s. Completed listings are showing the Carousel being sold at around $1,100-1,300 and new listings as high as $1,800+

    £ sorry I always forget to mention that. I have another listed on eBay at the moment for £850 and they seem to be going up and up. I am tempted to take it off and wait another 6-12 months.
    This is a part of reselling that makes no sense to me. It could be worth £1000 in 6 months, but the buyers will be few and far between.

    If that was my 10196 I would have sold it at Xmas and bought 8x DA. That £800 would have turned in to £1600 in 2 months. I would then take that money and buy something else due to be EOL buy Xmas 2013.

    I don't know, may be you already have 8+ DA...


  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,328
    JamesJT said:

    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Speaking of which...What's the ceiling on the Carousel? Does anyone have some still stock or have sold one recently?

    I sold one outside of ebay for 700 before xmas. Inside your looking at 800. Of course thats for a sealed set. Used can be found for a lot less (450-550)
    $700-800 USD or £'s. Completed listings are showing the Carousel being sold at around $1,100-1,300 and new listings as high as $1,800+

    £ sorry I always forget to mention that. I have another listed on eBay at the moment for £850 and they seem to be going up and up. I am tempted to take it off and wait another 6-12 months.
    This is a part of reselling that makes no sense to me. It could be worth £1000 in 6 months, but the buyers will be few and far between.

    If that was my 10196 I would have sold it at Xmas and bought 8x DA. That £800 would have turned in to £1600 in 2 months. I would then take that money and buy something else due to be EOL buy Xmas 2013.

    I don't know, may be you already have 8+ DA...


    I think that many would prefer an investment that they know is going to continue to increase, as opposed to one that could potentially be more risky.

    It's easy to look back on it now, and say yes, I would have bought 8+ DA, and known that it was going to rise at a rapid pace. However, back a month+ ago, there was little to no certainty about how DA would do in the aftermarket. Scroll through the pages on here, and you'll see people going back and forth on the aftermarket of HP sets. Most agreed it would be a winner, but a few, at the same time, did not.

    I think most people would prefer to roll with the steady 10196, that they know will continue to increase at a steady rate, than take a gamble and purchase 8 DAs and not know at what price it would increase at. A comment like that is unfortunately associated with hindsight bias.

    Buying and reselling like that, is easier said than done...

    It's also easier to sell 1 set off, as opposed to 8. Storage comes into play, as well. Easier to store 1 10196, than to store 8 DA in a closet. Especially someone with extremely limited space. My own place would be an example, where my family would kill me if I turned a decent sized set, into 8 sets that take up even more space.

  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited January 2013
    ^ Storage is about the only point with which I can agree. All 8 DAs would be gone by now and you'd be looking for somewhere to keep £1600 worth of sets safely.

    Anybody that told you DA was not going shoot up probably had loads in the basement and didn't want anybody else to stockpile them.

    Please - somebody stop me before I give all the secrets away.
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,328
    JamesJT said:


    Anybody that told you DA was not going shoot up probably had loads in the basement and didn't want anybody else to stockpile them.

    There was lots of speculation on how the DA would do in the aftermarket on this forum.

    To be honest, any sets I re-sale, or get information on, I get so from my own intutition, but I also rely heavily on this forum.

    To suggest that their are people on here that are attempting to mislead, would be completely incorrect. The Brickset forums definitely take pride in the numerous amounts of honest people that post day in and day out on here. Everyone is always seeking to help each other, and provide as much information/advice as possible. Granted, they are all opinions (as we've had a discussion on before ;-) ), but I must say that they are very strong/excellent opinions.

    That aside, yes, there was speculation on how it would do. Like I said, lots of people thought it would do well, but on the rate of increase of the set, no one could say for certain.

    Now that we are some time removed from the EOL of Diagon Alley, it's easy to say such things as "Could have stocked up on 8 more and made so much more profit!" However, you'll find such statements as those are the same lines used for other sets that EOLed and people regretted not getting, such as 10179 for an example. An operation of hindsight bias, which plagues us.

    We can make guesses, but we can't state fact, until the set has been EOL for at least a small period of time.

    No doubt, some people may have done what you suggested/inferred. However, others prefer to keep with the safer set that they know will continue to rise at a steady rate. No doubt DA would go up, but at what rate was completely up in the air.

    They'll always be a difference of opinion on it, as some are risk takers, and others are not.
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    edited January 2013
    ^ What set would you have spent that 1600 pounds on?
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,328
    edited January 2013
    ^10196, Grand Carousel of course! ;-)
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    2!
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    No such thing as mis-information.

    For every set that EOLs, there is a reaction in selling and buying price. Each time this happens, those who study the market, often post here. It's really great info, and nice of people to share it. We gain just a little more info to help decide future acquisitions.

    We all have the option to agree, disagree or ignore it.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I also don't think that people were stockpiling The Grand Carousel. 10196 was $100 USD more than DA was. It is also better to sell 1 $1,400 set than 8 sets for $1,400 as the fees are less. You only have to ship 1 set and store 1 set.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405

    Anyone here ever Bricklink the Carousel? Has it many rare parts?

    I'm curious too. I want to know how much it is to Bricklink #10196 and how much it is to Bricklink Diagon Alley. To me, this might have a bearing on the cost DA will be in the future. I don't see many rare parts to DA compared to Grand Carousel.


  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    roxio said:

    legoprods said:

    I remember the Orc Forge at 28€ not too long ago in amazon.co.uk

    I really liked those for parting out!

    I remember it at £16 from Tesco, I cleaned up

    Hope you polished those bare shelves as part of your cleaning up process
    ;-)

  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited January 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    Anyone here ever Bricklink the Carousel? Has it many rare parts?

    I'm curious too. I want to know how much it is to Bricklink #10196 and how much it is to Bricklink Diagon Alley. To me, this might have a bearing on the cost DA will be in the future. I don't see many rare parts to DA compared to Grand Carousel.


    There would be 12 minifigures to buy for a DA before you even started on the bricks
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^That, I understand.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited January 2013
    10196 you can bricklink for ~ $700 plus shipping from multiple vendors. DA you are looking at $400 plus shipping. DA I am expecting to hit ~ $290 USD by xmas NIB. I would not try to compare 10196 to DA tho. 10196 is unique and truly remarkable and will always command a hefty premium over DA which is still a good set but certainly not a must have.

    I wonder if Taj will ever catch 10179?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^It was just for reference. Not really comparing.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited January 2013
    Question for you all, do you think that #9465 The Zombies will continue to climb, I see, as mentioned previously, that prices in the US and UK seem to be doing very well, (but maybe not well enough for me to do my usual insta flip).

    I can pick up a number of these for $58AUD ($61USD, £38 or €46) 17% off AU RRP, as I do not usually sit on many sets I'm not sure how much money I want to sink in to them, one concern is that an AU seller sold a bunch recently for $58BIN, but none are available from AU sellers now, and the next cheapest is $118 shipped from Korea. Ill probably grab a few any way, but would be interested in others thinking on this set over the next 6-12 months. Thanks
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    I think #9465 long term will rely heavily on how scarce the set-exclusive minifigures become. They're already hard to find from US sellers, although several European sellers on BL seem to still have them in quantity. The rest of the set is pretty cheap to get on its own.

    Honestly, I was not very impressed with the build or the finished set. The truck is cool but the coffins have some design flaws. Most people snatching this up will either be going for the just the minifigures or because they want the complete MF line.

    Still, ebay sales show the price of NISB copies going for over $90 with some regularity now. I might have to just order the zombie bride and groom on their own and dump the set. So tempted to hit the Targets in my area to see if any are still hiding on store shelves.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited January 2013
    Thanks @iccarus
    Well I only grabbed 3 x #9465 at this stage. I do not normally hang on to sets too long so didn't want a bunch sitting around. I listed one on ebay.com.au, it is the cheapest one available at the moment, though not sure if it will sell but if not that's ok I'll keep them for a while.

    On another note Target Australia got some more #10217 Diagon Alley's in and are selling them at $100 below AU retail ($179), so I ordered a couple via their online layby (Lay A Way), I figure that I may as well hold off paying for them in full for a couple of months, would have been great if they had their 6 month layby as they did in July last year.
  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty CanadaMember Posts: 547
    prevere said:

    TRU has AC's Mothership on the shelf for $80. Boy, what a deal. :(

    I went into a local bookstore and saw one sitting on the shelf, when I went to move it, it was actually stuck to the shelf it had sat in the same spot untouched for so long.

    PoochyRomanticWarrior
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549
    iccarus said:


    Honestly, I was not very impressed with the build or the finished set. The truck is cool but the coffins have some design flaws. Most people snatching this up will either be going for the just the minifigures or because they want the complete MF line.

    I agree about the coffins. The zombie bride doesn't fit properly, so cannot go in the coffin. Surely the groom and bride should be the ones in the coffins, not the driver and groom. I doubt that will matter too much, but it does seem like a bad design that got past quality control, when they could easily have redesigned the coffin to accommodate a skirt / dress / slope piece.
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    edited January 2013
    JamesJT said:

    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Speaking of which...What's the ceiling on the Carousel? Does anyone have some still stock or have sold one recently?

    I sold one outside of ebay for 700 before xmas. Inside your looking at 800. Of course thats for a sealed set. Used can be found for a lot less (450-550)
    $700-800 USD or £'s. Completed listings are showing the Carousel being sold at around $1,100-1,300 and new listings as high as $1,800+

    £ sorry I always forget to mention that. I have another listed on eBay at the moment for £850 and they seem to be going up and up. I am tempted to take it off and wait another 6-12 months.
    This is a part of reselling that makes no sense to me. It could be worth £1000 in 6 months, but the buyers will be few and far between.

    If that was my 10196 I would have sold it at Xmas and bought 8x DA. That £800 would have turned in to £1600 in 2 months. I would then take that money and buy something else due to be EOL buy Xmas 2013.

    I don't know, may be you already have 8+ DA...



    I had 2 on sale before Christmas and sold 1. You dont get that many people prepared to pay so much for sets but they are out there. And your right I actually do have 8 DA's (weird =S)

    I also do not need to sell to free up money to invest. My main problem is storage. Before xmas I was investing mainly in imperial shuttles and a few more Diagon alleys. I only do this on a small scale, nothing compared to LFT but it is not down to available funds, its down to the fact I have nowhere to put it or the time to do the buying and selling on a mass scale.



  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Looks like 8 is the magic number.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    But will Diagon Alley really go up anymore, know one really knows how that set will turn out in the future so to say that you should sell a 10196 and buy 8 of the same set is pretty stupid, i know if i had the money i wouldnt buy 8 of them, id rather put that money into 8 different sets, especially if your just investing as a hobby.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,344
    edited January 2013
    ^I disagree, DA is a no-brainer. Regardless of where the £800 came from, if I had it today and was buying for resale and £100 DA was an option, then its DA all day long. What other sets would you risk it on?
    legoprods
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    But will Diagon Alley really go up anymore

    Yes.

    Bumblepants
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Hahahaha. All of this because I bought a Carousel for my unborn daughter :)

    Diagon Alley will go up. This is a speculation thread, so anyone's guess is as good as mine on how much it will go up. I actually wanted to buy a few UCS MF's for $2,000 last year and sit on them and sell them for $2,800-3,000 6 months to a year later. I was laughed at and one person on here actually did that and made a $900+ profit after Ebay fees.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    edited January 2013

    10196 you can bricklink for ~ $700 plus shipping from multiple vendors. DA you are looking at $400 plus shipping. DA I am expecting to hit ~ $290 USD by xmas NIB. I would not try to compare 10196 to DA tho. 10196 is unique and truly remarkable and will always command a hefty premium over DA which is still a good set but certainly not a must have.

    I wonder if Taj will ever catch 10179?

    I would love to see DA hit $290 USD by Christmas! I'm wishing I had picked up more than 3, oh well that's how it goes sometimes.

    As far as the Taj Mahal, I have been wondering the same thing. It has really been jumping in price over the past couple months (at least on ebay). I'm also curious to see how high the Eiffel Tower and 10196 will get by this time next year, as I think they will both continue to steadily increase in value, and have not hit yet it a plateau.

  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    No disrespect, i didnt really mean to call anyone stupid for buying 8 DA's, i think i kind of worded that post wrong
  • bamaker1bamaker1 Member Posts: 18
    Batcave for $49.00 -- Good buy at that price?
    Pitfall69
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    ^^not yet hit a plateau**
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    Shuttle Adventure (10213) is available at [email protected]
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-Creator-Shuttle-Adventure-10213-/350700190228

    I know this is a previous version of 10231. Do you think we can ask Lego for service pack to make it like 10231?
  • trenty1990trenty1990 Member Posts: 11
    Do you think the tower bridge will be a good investment as it is predicted too end soon?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Yes, it will be, but it all depends on your definition of good.
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    edited January 2013
    ^^ There have been many chances to get this set for around $200. I think it's a good deal even for over 4000 pieces bulk. It's near $0.50/piece which is the best ratio for the current retail set, I think.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Pitfall69 said:

    Hahahaha. All of this because I bought a Carousel for my unborn daughter :)

    Diagon Alley will go up. This is a speculation thread, so anyone's guess is as good as mine on how much it will go up. I actually wanted to buy a few UCS MF's for $2,000 last year and sit on them and sell them for $2,800-3,000 6 months to a year later. I was laughed at and one person on here actually did that and made a $900+ profit after Ebay fees.

    but think about it this way. you could have spent that same $2,000 on some combination of DAs, BPs, QARs, etc, and made a lot more than $900

  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    You could of but it is so much easier to store, sell, package and ship one set than 10 or 20.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^You see, that is my point. I believe that you made just under $1,000 in 9 months.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Also, your odds also go up on getting scammed. "Hey, this box is opened!!! I want my money back"
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    This is my first bold prediction of the year. In the US, DA will NOT be $295-300 at Christmas.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited January 2013
    ^^Maybe your overall odds of being scammed once are greater when selling many sets, but the negative impact of the scam would be minimal. Conversely, if you were scammed selling one $2,500 set, the negative impact would be severe (even though the odds of being scammed on a single set might be lower)! As has been discussed on numerous other occasions, I think everyone has personal preferences on whether it's better to sell many sets for a small profit each, or a small number of sets for a large profit each.
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