Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

jcb193

I decided to enter the lego world of investing after making a few hundred dollars when I saw a bunch of Boba Fett lego sets on clearance at walmart and doubled my money on ebay in a few days. The next few weeks saw me loading up on Imperial Shuttles, Death Stars, SSD, Grand Emporiums, Fire Brigades, Pet Shops. I then started to realize I knew nothing about lego investing. It is a real pain to unload them. They take up a ton of space.

My motivation was money, but I also thought it would be cool to have sets for my unborn children, but then I realized. Was I really going to open up a $1000 Death Star for my kid? And to be honest, think of how dated today's legos look compared to legos that are 5-10 years old (first series Harry Potter versus the current sets, anyone?), so I am curious if the collectibility will stay current with the demand. This is by no means a slight at the investors. I am sure many of you do VERY well. I'm just saying it wasn't for me.

So I am selling all the extra stuff off (Imperial Shuttles sold in like 3 days) and I think I am just going to collect creator buildings and maybe a few little cars/minifig sets that might be cool in ten years. Legos have come such a long way in the last five years.

I do notice that there seems to be no rhyme or reason and unless you are buying them at 50% off, it's hard to make a decent profit unless you are super patient. Fire Brigade was close to $200 for most of last year, and now readily available for $115. Imperial Shuttle jumped from $225 to $300 in a few days after getting retired. I guess timing is everything.

LegoFanTexas

^ If it were easy, everyone would do it! :)

JP3804

^ Agree. I think this happens quite often.

JamesJT

^^ jcb, Did you buy all those sets on your credit card or with long term savings?

jcb193

I bought them all with cash I save for random investments. I've done pretty well in the past with comic books and Magic cards and made tens of thousands, but I think I am too old to take on Legos. Seems very worthwhile, but I get sick of going to the post office 2-3 times a week, and I hate ebay fees on principle. I've have thousands already on the Imperial Shuttles and the SSD, but it also tied up a lot of money, and since they cycles don't seem to be very predictable, I didn't want to have thousands tied up for 2-3 more years. Especially since we have no ideas how many sets are being manufactured, and I know there are a ton more hoarders now than a few years ago. Usually by the time the common man is investing (me), it's too late. I did well, and will likely unload it all for a nice profit, but I think I'll just use that profit to buy a few modular sets from time to time. It was fun while it lasted though, what a great thrill finding stuff on clearance that you know will sell.

jcb193

Well, credit card that I paid off right away, so I was getting points (CC points and Lego points)...but I think the fact that you need to be able to squirrel away large sums of money (inventory) makes it tricky. But it is much more fun to buy legos than stocks ;)

VaderX

@jcb193: Why you buy toys for children that are not even born yet?

I smell a troll?

LegobrandonCP

VaderX said:

@jcb193: Why you buy toys for children that are not even born yet?

I smell a troll?

What if he is expecting a baby? Who are you to judge what he does and why he buys toys for unborn children?

Pitfall69

^I bought The Carousel before my daughter was born and put it together and displayed it in her room. She is 3 1/2 years old and when she's old enough, it is all hers.

Pitfall69

^I plan on doing the same for my next one. She is due in 4 weeks. The question is, what to buy?

Bandit

^ Darth Maul bust? :)

Pitfall69

^Haha, she might like it. My Aubrie loves Darth Maul!!! She refuses to watch any of the prequels though. Looks like she is smarter than all of us ;)

hoyatables

Yeah, I really wishi had the carousel now - our first is coming in 3 months and it would be great in a little girls room. Silly me for not thinking ahead! Oh well

Pitfall69

^Do you smell like a troll??

Congratulations BTW. We went all out on my girls room. We hired an artist to paint her walls with Curious George pictures from the classic books. The Carousel looks fantastic in there.

Pitfall69

^Speaking of which...What's the ceiling on the Carousel? Does anyone have some still stock or have sold one recently?

VaderX

First of all I "attacked" no one.

Wow this forum gets of topic in just about every thread now?

And yes I have a hard time believing someone when they post two or three times in a row on the same thread with statements that have little to do with the topic of the thread.

madforLEGO

jcb193 said:

........
I do notice that there seems to be no rhyme or reason and unless you are buying them at 50% off, it's hard to make a decent profit unless you are super patient. Fire Brigade was close to $200 for most of last year, and now readily available for $115. Imperial Shuttle jumped from $225 to $300 in a few days after getting retired. I guess timing is everything.

Where were you seeing Fire Brigades for ?200? The most I have seen a FB go for would be 150, at retail stores....

As for the #10196...
Carousel MISB seems to go consistently for about 1000 now on eBay. and I think about 600 for a 'loose' one.

Renny

hehe...love the avatar pic btw VaderX:)

um..back on topic, any thoughts on the long term value of Galaxy Squad? It's no indication of course but I don't think anyone in my area is buying a single set. That's the only theme that is always fully stocked and doesn't look to be moving at all. I think because there is so much competition for kids attention these days with Chima, Ninjago, Super Heroes, Star Wars and TMNT that these are just kind of falling under the radar.

Personally they don't so anything for me as they just seem too generic despite being a space theme.

samiam391

Pitfall69 said:

^I plan on doing the same for my next one. She is due in 4 weeks. The question is, what to buy?

Why not the Death Star? It's due to EOL soon, and you talk about it all the time. ;-)

Pitfall69

^I'm trying to stick with sets that were released this year...the year she is going to be born.

...But thanks there buddy ;)

jasonord69a

Have just noticed some of the text from 10232 Palace Cinema.

• Collect and build an entire town with the LEGO® Modular Buildings collection: 10224 Town Hall, 10218 Pet Shop and 10211 Grand Emporium!

Note the absence of 10197 Fire Brigade!

Does this mean anything I wonder?

mountebank

I do like the Kremlinology we see on this thread.

CCC

jcb193 said:

I hate ebay fees on principle.

I always find statements like that strange. eBay lets you find a partner to sell to, often at an inflated price, which otherwise would be difficult. Should they be providing that service free, so you can profit from it? They charge way less than most real world auction houses (in the UK, charges are normally 30%+ once you combine seller and buyer premiums), which often reach less people than ebay would.

Their fees are comparable to other professional selling options (which have lots of potential customers) such as amazon.

Of course, you can sell for free here, but what is the audience volume, and what is their knowledge of lego prices compared to the general public.

madforLEGO

jasonord69a said:

Have just noticed some of the text from 10232 Palace Cinema.

• Collect and build an entire town with the LEGO® Modular Buildings collection: 10224 Town Hall, 10218 Pet Shop and 10211 Grand Emporium!

Note the absence of 10197 Fire Brigade!

Does this mean anything I wonder?

Probably the same as the catalogs missing the FB, but also the retailer catalogs or whatever they are called that report it is around in 2013... Nothing.
Considering how many rumors there are: It is out until end of 13, it is only available until Spring 2013, etc. My guess is that the descriptions do not change in the catalogs many times, so why list something that will be eventually gone this year when the other sets have at least 1 more year to go. (even though I think there is a rumor that GE is also gone at the end of 13)

I would say it is still around for some length of time in 2013..
IMO, I would say if you want one and you are in the US get one from Amazon right now for 119.99. I doubt you are going to see them much cheaper and you will ensure that you have one before they go EOL.

prevere

So the first mention of FB retiring was on page 1 of this thread. That was 15.2M views and 10.3K comments ago.

cheshirecat

^ Earliest reference to FB going OOS I've seen on these forums pre-dated this thread by six months as well.

mountebank

I recall an archaeologist friend mentioning that it is also referred to in some Neolithic cave paintings in France. The sets are being chased by hunter gatherers who missed out on them before EoL.

LegobrandonCP

:( The SE went in stock for a brief moment on TRU.com at midnight. I was already in bed by then. :-/

NowInStock.net is great!

Hardrada

Bumblepants said:

^^ I seem to recall several years ago the Target exclusive SW Republic Tank disappearing from [email protected] and Target after Christmas than reappearing the next August in both places. Purely speculation but the possibility exists Zombies could follow that model. I certainly wouldn't bet on it though.

Even if it did return next autumn, it wouldn't hurt resellers. You can sell that set with 100% profit right now.

Btw there was surprisingly little talk about the Zombies set here as far as I remember. Especially compared to how safe this bet was. (Exclusive zombies in a limited edition set? Come on.) Or maybe that's why everyone kept quiet?:p

kim43235

LegobrandonCP said:

:( The SE went in stock for a brief moment on TRU.com at midnight. I was already in bed by then. :-/

NowInStock.net is great!

I can't even search SE in TRU.com. Do you have the url for it?

LegobrandonCP

kim43235 said:

LegobrandonCP said:

:( The SE went in stock for a brief moment on TRU.com at midnight. I was already in bed by then. :-/

NowInStock.net is great!

I can't even search SE in TRU.com. Do you have the url for it?

http://www.toysrus.com/product/index.jsp?productId=11643504

sidersdd

LegobrandonCP said:

:( The SE went in stock for a brief moment on TRU.com at midnight. I was already in bed by then. :-/

NowInStock.net is great!

It'd be better if it made the purchase for you. :)

legogregors

I ordered SE at noon today following that link. Should I expect that order to be cancelled?

Regarding zombies 9465, I agree that it had a good combination going for a set but never expected it to EOL so quickly. Was there some indication other than the terrifying bride?

SiE

Pitfall69 said:

^Speaking of which...What's the ceiling on the Carousel? Does anyone have some still stock or have sold one recently?

I sold one outside of ebay for 700 before xmas. Inside your looking at 800. Of course thats for a sealed set. Used can be found for a lot less (450-550)

madforLEGO

People should not be surprised that a set exclusive to a specific retailer (other than TRU that ) sold out quickly.
Now I know there are exceptions to this rule like the Cad Bane Speeder, but It seems most of the exclusives are gone after 6 months, Expect Orc Forge to do the same to be honest..
While it may or may not I would say buy one if you want one now.

legogregors

Fair enough, so is anyone betting on Orc Forge with the expectation that it will follow Zombies or does there need to be a significant discount to clear out inventory?

kim43235

LegobrandonCP said:

kim43235 said:

LegobrandonCP said:

:( The SE went in stock for a brief moment on TRU.com at midnight. I was already in bed by then. :-/

NowInStock.net is great!

I can't even search SE in TRU.com. Do you have the url for it?

http://www.toysrus.com/product/index.jsp?productId=11643504

Thanks for the link! I ordered two a few days ago via [email protected] and they were shipped yesterday. It was kind of surprise to me since they have cancelled my previous orders for SE and Fire Temple. I don't trust their inventory system but you get lucky sometimes :)

Have we ever seen IS comes back in stock at TRU.com? I haven't seen one for a long time.

gmpirate

^ tough call. Seems most people don't consider it a very impressive set, LotR hasn't sold very well and more sets are coming. Plus there are the separate Hobit sets to compete with. At 50% off, why not. At RRP or little percentage off? No, as I think there are better bets.

MF is a good seller and zombies are in demand. I'm sure most of us missed the boat on these but you can't win them all.

gmpirate

jcb193 said:

I hate ebay fees on principle.

Curious what this principle is.

Yodalicious

VaderX said:

@jcb193: Why you buy toys for children that are not even born yet?

I smell a troll?

Not long after I found out I was having a boy, I stumbled across the LotR sets online. I immediately bought them all to put away for him. They all came before he was born. He's 6 months old now and won't actually play with the sets for years, but they're there waiting for him and now have company in the closet with the Hobbit sets. So not only was it before he was born, but technically also years before he will touch them. Sure, that seems silly when it's said out loud, but upon coming out of my dark ages I realized how "collectible" LEGO had become in my absence from the hobby. I wasn't taking the risk that he could never have those sets (or he could after Daddy paid a pretty penny). For all I know, he could grow up hating LotR, but his grandma loved it and his Daddy and Mommy love it as well. I won't force it on him, but the complete collection is there waiting just in case.

prevere

I don't like comparing categories like retail exclusive sets. This is in reply to the Orc Forge vs. Zombies comments.

If they aren't in the same theme, it's really hard to judge. I think you have to judge them individually. When you start saying, "well, maybe it will produce like Zombies did", that's where you'll get into trouble.

Farmer_John

Okay...had my son build the IS that I ordered from Amazon (2nd to last set left before EOL). It arrived with one bag opened and parts strewn all around the box (some even in the shipping box). Anyway, all the parts were present and accounted for so we are happy. Plus Amazon knocked 10% off for the open box, so all in all it was an okay deal. We bought it to build, so the main concern was having all the parts. I probably won't have paid RRP for set to resell though...

mathew

^ IS is a great Lego set, but I think it was over priced at RRP. There's a lot of little technic bits that add to the piece count.

Pitfall69

^That's great. As long as your son enjoyed it.

Pitfall69

Yodalicious said:

VaderX said:

@jcb193: Why you buy toys for children that are not even born yet?

I smell a troll?

Not long after I found out I was having a boy, I stumbled across the LotR sets online. I immediately bought them all to put away for him. They all came before he was born. He's 6 months old now and won't actually play with the sets for years, but they're there waiting for him and now have company in the closet with the Hobbit sets. So not only was it before he was born, but technically also years before he will touch them. Sure, that seems silly when it's said out loud, but upon coming out of my dark ages I realized how "collectible" LEGO had become in my absence from the hobby. I wasn't taking the risk that he could never have those sets (or he could after Daddy paid a pretty penny). For all I know, he could grow up hating LotR, but his grandma loved it and his Daddy and Mommy love it as well. I won't force it on him, but the complete collection is there waiting just in case.

That's great. The more I think about it, when you have a baby shower, you are getting clothes and toys for a child that's not even born yet. It really doesn't sound stupid.

Pitfall69

SiE said:

Pitfall69 said:

^Speaking of which...What's the ceiling on the Carousel? Does anyone have some still stock or have sold one recently?

I sold one outside of ebay for 700 before xmas. Inside your looking at 800. Of course thats for a sealed set. Used can be found for a lot less (450-550)

$700-800 USD or £'s. Completed listings are showing the Carousel being sold at around $1,100-1,300 and new listings as high as $1,800+

UKtsumi

Yodalicious said:

Not long after I found out I was having a boy, I stumbled across the LotR sets online. I immediately bought them all to put away for him........... He's 6 months old now and won't actually play with the sets for years, but they're there waiting for him and now have company in the closet with the Hobbit sets. ........................ years before he will touch them.

He's only 6 months old? I hope you have plenty of closet space!

Farmer_John

Pitfall69 said:

^That's great. As long as your son enjoyed it.

He really did, so 90% RRP was reasonable. It was the largest Lego set he's ever built. I'm actually out of town on business, so I will get to see the finished product tonight. From what I saw before I left...very nice indeed! It will do well post-EOL.

CCC

prevere said:

I don't like comparing categories like retail exclusive sets. This is in reply to the Orc Forge vs. Zombies comments.

If they aren't in the same theme, it's really hard to judge. I think you have to judge them individually. When you start saying, "well, maybe it will produce like Zombies did", that's where you'll get into trouble.

Not only that, but Zombies went pretty quick in the UK / Europe too. Whereas Orc Forge (not exclusive here) has been sold at very heavy discounts. So there is cheaply bought stock which could be imported into the US. Not so for The Zombies.

prevere

TRU has AC's Mothership on the shelf for $80. Boy, what a deal. :(